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Terry's Tips Stock Options Trading Blog

Trading Options Can be a Lifetime Learning Experience

March 23rd, 2015

Last week was a good one for the market. SPY rose 2.2%, a wonderful week. The actual options portfolios we carry out at Terry’s Tips had a stellar week as well. Nine of our ten portfolios gained at least 5%, and 3 of them gained over 33% in a single week.

Nike (NKE) announced blow-out earnings and the stock rose 6.4%. Our portfolio that trades NKE options gained 13.5%, double the increase in the stock price. This was far less than we usually do compared to stock price changes, however.

We have proved over and over that if you can find a stock that will increase if value, you can usually make 3 or 4 or more times as much with an options strategy as you could by simply buying the stock.

Of course, buying options is not quite so simple as buying stock. To do it right requires gaining some understanding that most people just don’t have the energy or willpower to learn.

Terry

Trading Options Can be a Lifetime Learning Experience

If the truth be known, investing in stocks is pretty much like playing checkers. Any . . .

Are Overbought-Oversold Indicators Reliable Predictors of Short-Term Market Performance – a 100-Week Backtest

March 12th, 2015

This week I would like to report on a study I recently made for Terry’s Tips paying subscribers. I checked out the validity of a popular way of predicting whether the short term market might be headed higher or lower. I think you will find that the results are astonishing.

Terry

Are Overbought-Oversold Indicators Reliable Predictors of Short-Term Market Performance – a 100-Week Backtest

One of the most popular indicators in many analysts’ toolbox is the overbought-oversold numbers generated by the current RSI.

I have never figured out how to get reliable information from reading charts, although many people apparently . . .

An Oil Play Designed to Make 25% in One Month

March 3rd, 2015

Bernie Madoff attracted billions of dollars because he said he had a system that would generate gains of 12% a year. For many investors, 12% must seem like a pretty good return. Options investors think differently. They prefer to have at least some of their investment capital in something that could conceivably make a far greater return.

Today I would like to discuss an investment I made this week in a demonstration (actual money on the line) portfolio for Terry’s Tips Insiders. It is designed to make about 25% in the next four weeks.

Terry

An Oil Play Designed to Make 25% in One Month

One of our favorite underlyings these days is USO, an ETP (Exchange Traded Product) which closely tracks the price of oil. If you have . . .

List of Options Which Trade After Hours (Until 4:15)

February 27th, 2015

I noticed that the value of some of our portfolios was changing after the market for the underlying stock had closed. Clearly, the value of the options was changing after the 4:00 EST close of trading. I did a Google search to find a list of options that traded after hours, and came up pretty empty. But now I have found the list, and will share it with you just in case you want to play for an extra 15 minutes after the close of trading each day.

Terry

List of Options Which Trade After Hours (Until 4:15)

Since option values are derived from the price of the underlying stock or ETP (Exchange Traded Product), once the underlying stops trading, there should be no reason for options to continue trading. However, more and more . . .

An Even Better Way to Play Oil With Options

February 10th, 2015

Yesterday I sent you a note describing an interesting way to make some serious money with options, betting that the price of oil will either stabilize or move higher from today’s low levels. Thanks to subscriber Thomas, there is a better underlying out there. Just in case you were planning to place the trades, I thought you should check this one out first.

Terry

An Even Better Way to Play Oil With Options

This is a re-write of yesterday’s letter, except the underlying is USO (another ETF) rather than OIH. The chart for USO is remarkably similar to that of OIH:

There is a distinct advantage to USO, however. The options are far more liquid . . .

How to Play Oil Prices With Options

February 8th, 2015

If you are anything like me, I have enjoyed filling up my car lately. It almost seems too good to be true. How long do you think gas prices will stay this low? I figure that the price is more likely to move higher from here than it is to move lower, but I could be wrong. It seems like a prudent bet would be that it won’t move much lower from here, and that the price of oil is more likely to stay the same or move higher over the next year. If either scenario (flat or up) is true, you can easily double your money using options. Today I will show you one way that might be accomplished.

Terry

How to Play Oil Prices With Options

If you want to bet on higher oil prices, you might consider . . .

How to Make 20% in one Month on Your Favorite Stock (Using Options)

January 22nd, 2015

This week I would like to show you the exact positions of one of the 9 portfolios we are currently carrying out for Insiders at Terry’s Tips. It involves one of my favorite places to shop, Costco, and its stock, COST. We expect to make just under 20% on this portfolio in the next four weeks, even if the stock does not go up a single penny. Welcome to the wonderful world of stock options.

Terry

How to Make 20% in one Month on Your Favorite Stock (Using Options)

The basic strategy that we carry out at Terry’s Tips is to buy longer-term options on stocks we like and sell shorter-term options against them. Since the decay rates of the shorter-term options is . . .

Try a Vertical Put Credit Spread on a Stock That You Like

January 8th, 2015

This week I would like to share my thoughts about the market for 2015, and also one of my favorite option strategies when I find a stock I really like. Whenever I find a stock I particularly like for one reason or another, rather than buy the stock outright, I use options to dramatically increase [...]

Further Discussion on an Options Strategy Designed to Make 40% a Month

December 4th, 2014

Last week we outlined an options play based on the historical fluctuation pattern for our favorite ETP called SVXY. This week we will compare those fluctuations to the market in general (using the S&P 500 tracking stock, SPY, as the market definition). We proposed buying a vertical call spread for a one-month-out expiration date with the lower strike about 6% above the starting stock price.

The results were a little unbelievable, possibly gaining an average of 65% a month (assuming the fluctuation pattern continued into the future). If you used an outside indicator to determine which months were more likely to end up with a winning result, you would invest in just under half the months, but when you did invest, your average gain might be in the neighborhood of 152%. Your average monthly gain would be approximately the same if you only invested half the time or all the time, but some people like to increase the percentage of months when they make gains (the pain of losing always seems to be worse than the pleasure of winning).

This week we will offer a second way to bet that the stock will rise by 12.5% in about 38% of the months (as it has in the past). It involves buying a calendar spread rather than a vertical call spread (and sort of legging into a long call position as an alternative to the simple purchase of a call).

Terry

Further Discussion on an Options Strategy Designed to Make 40% a Month:

First. Let’s compare the monthly price fluctuations of SPY and SVXY. You will see that they are totally different. . . .

An Options Strategy Designed to Make 40% a Month

November 28th, 2014

I hope you had a wonderful Thanksgiving with your family and/or loved ones, and are ready for some exciting new information. Admittedly, the title of this week’s Idea of the Week is a little bizarre. Surely, such a preposterous claim can’t possibly have a chance of succeeding. Yet, that is about what your average monthly gain would have been if you had used this strategy for the past 37 months that the underlying ETP (SVXY) has been in existence. In other words, if the pattern of monthly price changes continues going forward, a 40% average monthly gain should result (actually, it would be quite a bit more than this, but I prefer to underpromise and over-deliver). Please read on.

We will discuss some exact trades which might result in 40%+ monthly gains over the next four weeks. I hope you will study every article carefully. Your beliefs about options trading may be changed forever.

Terry

An Options Strategy Designed to Make 40% a Month: First of all, we need to say a few words about our favorite underlying, SVXY. It is not a stock. There are no quarterly earnings reports to push it higher or lower, depending . . .

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Success Stories

I have been trading the equity markets with many different strategies for over 40 years. Terry Allen's strategies have been the most consistent money makers for me. I used them during the 2008 melt-down, to earn over 50% annualized return, while all my neighbors were crying about their losses.

~ John Collins