Five-Year Track Record
|Year||Gain / Loss|
|Average per year||+59%|
YTD 2022 Track Record – We Crushed the Market Averages!
The extreme market volatility that existed in late 2021 continued into 2022 and most of the big moves were on the downside, two things that negatively impact the success of our 10K Strategy. This caused us to make some modifications on the way we carried out our weekly trades.
First, we have held about half our investment in cash so that when IVs fall to historically lower levels, (as they inevitably will) we won’t be crushed by our long positions falling so much. Second, we have resisted the temptation to adjust every time the market surges one way or the other. It usually reverses itself shortly after big moves in either direction. And finally, we have maintained about half the portfolios in a delta-negative position so if the market does fall, some of them will do well.
The bottom line is that the composite gain for all four portfolios was 8.4% through October 15, 2022. During this period, the market (S&P 500) was down 25% and the Nasdaq has dropped over 38%. Clearly, we have outperformed the underlying averages by a wide margin. The 10K Strategy (with our recent modifications) has handled this falling market and unusually high volatility quite well. We have not enjoyed the near-60% annual gains we have averaged over the last five years, but very few investors have matched our results for 2022. Have you? Would you be happy if your investment portfolio had gained 8.4% for the first nine months of 2022?
Track Record for 2021
We carried out our 10K Strategy with 4 portfolios in 2021, each trading options on a separate underlying stock or ETF. For the first nine months of the year, weekly volatility of our underlying stocks or ETFs rose to extreme levels. However, with three months to go, our composite portfolio average was above 20% for the year. Then volatility soared, and extended into 2022. Our final results were a disappointing loss of 2.4% for the year, as reported in our January 1, 2022 Saturday Report sent to subscribers:
|Boomers Revenge||IWM||10,000||9,454||-546||– 5.5%|
Track Record for 2020
We carried out our 10K Strategy with 5 portfolios in 2020, each trading options on a separate underlying stock or ETF. During the year, we dropped one of the portfolios when the underling became too volatile for the options prices to handle, and we suffered a 50% loss on that portfolio.
The other four 10K Strategy portfolios prospered, however, and chalked up an average gain of 122% for all 5 portfolios. This record meant that in 3 of the past 4 years, our 10K Strategy portfolios have enjoyed average annual gains of over 100%.
At the end of 2020, three portfolios – Wiley Wolf (MSFT), Rising Tide (COST), and Earnings Eagle (TGT) – all more than tripled in value, led by the Wolf’s quadruple (this portfolio started out 2020 with $10,000 and ended up the year with $40,934 (after paying all commissions). This result shows how absurdly successful our strategy can be when the market edges higher and volatility is muted throughout the year. Fortunately, this is the pattern for most market years.
Our results for 2019 were extraordinary. It was a good year for the market in general. The S&P 500 (SPY) gained about 29%. Just about any equity investment probably made money. However, the average gain for our 10K Strategy portfolios exceeded 103%, or well more than 3 times as great as the market as a whole.
Track Record for 2018
The success of the 10K Strategy is dependent on selecting underlying stocks or ETFs that stay flat or move higher. The year 2018 was the only year in the past 10 years when the market fell during the calendar year. This was especially true in the last quarter when prices fell across the board. Our 10K Strategy portfolios all lost money in 2018, a dramatic difference from 2017 when the composite average portfolio gained over 113%. Our worst 2018 performer was based on Facebook (FB). FB fell from a high of over $218 to end at $135, a drop of 38%. Our portfolio lost over 90%, a huge reversal from the 700%+ gain that it had enjoyed in 2017 (see below).
We carried out ten portfolios in 2018, many of which were experiments with strategies totally different from the basic 10K Strategy that has become the only strategy that we currently use. It was a down year for the market, and our composite loss for the year was 39.9% after culling out the portfolios which bore no resemblance to our basic strategy or which did not operate for the entire year.
The Terry’s Tips 2017 Track Record Results
The year has ended, and it is time to record the results for 2017. The composite average of our 10 portfolios gained 113% for 2017, just about the best year we have enjoyed in our 16 years of publishing Terry’s Tips. Only one portfolio (Honey Badger) lost money (and it covered the entire loss for the year in the first week of 2018).
Each of our portfolios is carried in a separate brokerage account and include all commissions. We currently carry out four portfolios at Terry’s Tips is available for Auto-Trade at Tradier or TastyWorks (so you can follow a portfolio and never have to make a trade on your own). All of these portfolios can be carried out inside an IRA. Paying subscribers can follow the results of all the portfolios. Some newsletters only reveal their winning portfolios to all subscribers, but at Terry’s Tips, we disclose every trade and every position for every portfolio at all times.
All results include commissions at the standard rate charged by Tradier for Terry’s Tips subscribers. Many newsletters conveniently (for them) do not include commissions when they report their trading results. By the way, our subscription rates are considerably less than just about any other options newsletter.
Earlier Years Results
Terry’s Tips has carried out actual portfolios for subscribers to follow (or auto-trade if they wished) since 2003. In most of these years, the option portfolios have beaten the market averages by a very large margin. In some years, the portfolios have incurred losses similar to the magnitude of the market losses.
Option trading involves leverage, and leverage works in both directions. Gains (and losses) are often greater than changes in the market. However, we have tried to minimize the losses in down years so that our losses are less than those of the markets in general, and to enjoy greater gains than the markets in good years. Most of the time, we have been successful in carrying out these goals. Of course, we must remind everyone that past performance is no guarantee that future results will be as great as they have been in the past, in spite of our expectations that they will do just that.