Terry's Tips Stock Options Trading Blog

This is our third suggestion on how to carry out the Diagonal Condor Earnings Strategy on companies which are about to announce earnings. The first two suggestions (RHT and KMX) resulted in 40% gains in a single week when the stock fluctuated only moderately after the announcement.  One of these times, the stock is likely to fluctuate more than we would like, and we will be able to put the second part of the strategy to work.  This will involve selling out-of-the-money weekly puts and calls over the next few weeks until the initial trade turns into a net gain.

This week’s choice is TDAmeritrade (AMTD) which announces before the market opens on Tuesday, April 24, 2018.  Implied volatility (IV) of the 27Apr18 options has not escalated at this point – it is 32.5, barely higher than a six-week-out 25May18 series (31).  We expect IV for the 27Apr18 series to move much higher over the next 10 days, and we hope to take advantage of higher option prices as well as a possibly higher stock price before the announcement date. 

A quick update on our two latest suggestions using the Diagonal Condor Earnings Strategy – both Redhat (RHT) and Carmax (KMX) spreads could have been closed out on the Friday after earnings were announced for a 49%+ gain for the week.

This week we are looking at another of the Investor’s Business Daily (IBD) Top 50 List companies.  We use this list in one of our options portfolios to spot outperforming stocks and place option spreads that take advantage of the momentum.

Terry

Lam Research (LRCX) announces earnings after the close on Tuesday, April 17, 2018. The stock has been on a downtrend for the past several weeks, a good indication that expectations are seriously lowered.  We have seen many instances when lowered expectations have resulted in a higher post-announcement date regardless of how well or poorly the actual results were compared to estimates. If you agree with this prognosis, you might consider making these trades (when the stock is trading about $196):

Buy To Open # LRCX 18May18 180 puts (LRCX180518P180)
Sell To Open # LRCX 20Apr18 195 puts (LRCX180420P195) for a debit of $2.20  (buying a diagonal)

Buy To Open # LRCX 18May18 220 calls (LRCX180518C220)
Sell Open # LRCX 20Apr18 205 calls (LRCX180420C205) for a credit of …

Carmax (KMX) announces earnings before the market opens on Wednesday, April 4, 2018.  If anyone would like to place the spread trade that we suggest below, the order must be placed no later than the market close on Tuesday, April 3rd.

Here are the numbers we compiled for KMX for the last eight quarters:

This week we are looking at another of the Investor’s Business Daily (IBD) Top 50 List companies.  We use this list in one of our options portfolios to spot outperforming stocks and place option spreads that take advantage of the momentum.

Terry

Is Stamps.com (STMP) Ready to Resume Higher?

Zacks research recently wrote a compelling article outlining why STMP is poised for further gains.  As well, this analyst believes there is potential for about a 30% upside based on their recent price target revision.

Summary of Strategy: Based on 17 years of studying price changes following an earnings announcement, Terry’s Tips has designed a strategy  which has a high probability of successfully navigating the extreme volatility that usually accompanies quarterly earnings reports.  The strategy is based on the observation that there is very little correlation between the actual numbers reported and what the stock does after the announcement.  Stock price fluctuations tend to be larger in announcement weeks and smaller in subsequent weeks.  That is just about all we can say about most earnings events, except that we have identified one indicator that appears an average of only once a year for most companies, and when this indicator is triggered, the stock has a much higher probability of going up than down.

The Diagonal Condor Earnings Strategy only applies to . . .

This week we are looking at another of the Investor’s Business Daily (IBD) Top 50 List companies.  We use this list in one of our options portfolios to spot outperforming stocks and place option spreads that take advantage of the momentum. Terry Arista Networks (ANET): Should You Buy the Dip? Upside price targets for Arista […]

This week we are looking at another of the Investor’s Business Daily (IBD) Top 50 List companies.  We use this list in one of our options portfolios to spot outperforming stocks and place option spreads that take advantage of the momentum.  The Terry’s Tips portfolio that trades these spreads in an actual account for subscribers to follow on their own or have trades made for them in their account through the free Auto-Trade service offered by thinkorswim has gained 79% so far in 2018.

Terry

Nvidia (NVDA) Is on the Verge of a Big Breakout

Several analysts have an optimistic outlook towards NVDA despite the stock trading near some important resistance.  Here are two of them – Things Are Going Right for NVIDIA and AMD and Semiconductor Stocks Soar to Highest Level in Decades Despite Deal Woes.

This week we are looking at another of the Investor’s Business Daily (IBD) Top 50 List companies.  We use this list in one of our options portfolios to spot outperforming stocks and place option spreads that take advantage of the momentum. The actual portfolio at Terry’s Tips where we place the trades we tell you about a couple of days later is now ahead 84% so far in 2018, and that includes our closing out the BABA spread last week at a slight loss when we could have made the max gain if we had waited three more days until expiration.  Even we make bad trades once in a while (although we still believe we made the prudent move – no one could have predicted that BABA would soar $11 in the last three days before expiration).

Terry

Will Paypal (PYPL) Continue Its Upward Momentum?

Several articles have recently been published on the positive outlook for PYPL.  Here are two of them – Paypal Holdings Stock Is Itching for a Breakout and BMO Capital Markets Boosts Paypal Price Target to $89.00.

This week we are looking at another of the Investor’s Business Daily (IBD) Top 50 List companies.  We use this list in one of our options portfolios to spot outperforming stocks and place option spreads that take advantage of the momentum.

Terry

TD Ameritrade (AMTD): A Stable and Consistent Player

Several analysts have a bullish outlook for TD Ameritrade, here are two of them: TD Ameritrade Rating Reiterated by Goldman Sachs Group and TD Ameritrade PT Raised to $61.00

AMTD faced some volatile price action in February as the global equity markets fell under pressure and broadly corrected lower.  In the past week, AMTD broke to a fresh 19 year high prior to pulling back.  The bullish break is suggesting the stock has resumed higher within its broader uptrend while the pullback offers an entry point against support from the 20-period daily moving average.