About a month ago I sent out a strategy we were using to capitalize on the price of oil falling further (as many analysts, including those at Goldman, Citi, and Barclays, were predicting). We set up a small demonstration portfolio which had $2910 to start, and bought calendar spreads at the 18, 17, and 16 strikes when USO was trading at $18.45.When the price of oil did retreat further, USO fell to about $17, and we sold our calendar spreads at the 17 and 18 strikes and replaced them with calendar spreads at the 15 and 14 strikes. Since the strike prices of calendar spreads is what determines whether you are bullish or bearish on the stock, when we had all our calendar spreads at strikes below the stock price, we were extremely bearish.
Then the stock turned around and headed higher, taking away the gains we had made, and we were right back to where we started. Today we made a new start, and I would like to share our thinking at this time.
Update on Oil Play Designed to Make 25% in One Month
USO is an Exchange Traded Product (ETP) which is highly correlated to the price of oil (West Texas Intermediate). But there is another component that is not as easy to contend with, and that is the speculative element. Oil prices are less than half of what they were a year ago, and in spite of most of the big investment banks warning that even lower prices are coming, there seems to be some people out there who are betting that oil prices will eventually recover, and this may be a good time to get on board. For example, Robert Shiller, Nobel laureate and Yale University economist made a strong pitch to “buy oil” this week. Consequently, over the past few days, USO has inched up a bit in spite of these recent developments:
• The supply of oil is at an 80-year high, and grew at more than 4 million barrels last week in spite of expectations far less than that.
• The rate of oil rigs closing down has fallen drastically (and it appears that the rigs that have been closed down so far were the lowest-producing ones so the supply of oil gets higher each week)
• There appears to be an accord with Iran which could flood the market with new oil from Iran if sanctions are removed.
We are siding with the investment banks’ predictions instead of Mr. Shiller’s (who is likely to be thinking longer-term). While we believe the short-term price of USO is headed lower (for the above reasons and the headwinds caused by contango), we hedged our bet a little, and established new positions in our demonstration portfolio. We own puts expiring in Jan-16 and we have sold Apr-4 15 puts which expire in 3 weeks (on April 24th). We have 8 calendar spreads at the 15 strike, 8 at the 16 strike, and 5 at the 17 strike at a time when the stock is trading at $17.45. Our portfolio is worth $2910 today.
This is the risk profile graph for these calendar spread positions for April 24th:
- USO Risk Profile Graph April 2015
The graph shows that if USO doesn’t change one cent in value for the next three weeks, we will make about 20% with our positions. If it falls by about a dollar (or more) as we expect, we could make double that amount. If we are wrong, and it goes higher by a dollar in three weeks, we will break even.
We like our chances with these positions, and they demonstrate how you can make extraordinary gains with options, even if you are not quite right in guessing which way a stock price is headed. I always like the feeling that if the stock doesn’t change at all (which is so often the case), I will still make a nice gain when the short options expire.
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