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Go With the Pro

28 July 2022

Go With the Pro

Prologis (PLD) is a real estate logistics company, leasing properties to businesses in 19 countries. The company reported earnings on Monday before the open that beat profit and revenue estimates. PLD also raised guidance for FY22. There were no upgrades or downgrades on the news, but a few target prices were lowered. This is normal these days as analysts are lowering targets across the board to keep up with the bear market. Despite a few reductions, the overall target is $161, 27% above Friday’s close.

The stock reacted with a 1.5% drop on Monday after reporting but recovered to close the week with a 4% gain. More importantly, the shares bounced off the support of the 20-day moving average, a trendline that is now pointing higher for the first time since April. That was just as PLD was embarking on a 40% slide that took less than two months. But the stock has gained 19% off its June 13 bottom to close at its highest point in more than five weeks.

This trade is based on PLD continuing its recent uptrend, buoyed by the support of its rising 20-day moving average. Note that the short strike of our put spread is below the 20-day, meaning the stock will have to pierce this support to move the spread into the money.

If you agree that the 20-day moving average (blue line) will continue guiding PLD higher, consider the following trade that relies on the stock staying above $120 (red line) through expiration in eight weeks:

Buy to Open the PLD 16Sep 115 put (PLD220916P115)
Sell to Open the PLD 16Sep 120 put (PLD220916P120) for a credit of $1.10 (selling a vertical)

This credit is $0.05 less than the mid-point price of the spread at Friday’s $126.90 close. Unless PLD increases quickly, you should be able to get close to that price.

The commission on this trade should be no more than $1.30 per spread. Each spread would then yield $108.70. This trade reduces your buying power by $500, making your net investment $391.30 per spread ($500 – $108.70). If PLD closes above $120 on September 16, both options will expire worthless and your return on the spread would be 28% ($108.70/$391.30). 

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