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Using Options to Prosper in Down Markets

Last week was the worst week for the market for almost three years.  The S&P 500 fell by a whopping 6.6%.  Investors seem to be dumping everything.  Usually, when stock markets crash, gold moves higher, but last week, gold fell $100 in a single day, the worst one-day drop in its history.  Silver and other commodities were crushed as well.  Billions of dollars are going into treasuries even though over half the S&P 500 companies have higher yields. 

What do you in times like these?  Would you be surprised if I said that a well-designed options portfolio might be the perfect solution?

Using Options to Prosper in Down Markets

At Terry’s Tips, we conduct an actual portfolio which we call the 10K Bear.  We believe that this portfolio offers a better alternative than any other as a downside hedge vehicle.  Even better, the market does not have to go down for you to make a gain.  A flat or slightly higher market also makes weekly gains most of the time

Here is the current risk profile graph for our 10K Bear portfolio.  It shows the loss or gain that should result from a $5200 investment in SPY put options on September 30 when the Weeklys expire in a few days.  Last Friday, SPY closed at $113.54  (This graph assumes that today’s option prices – VIX – will remain unchanged – if VIX falls significantly over the next 4 days, the gains would be less than the graph indicates.)

The graph shows that about an 18% gain would be made if the stock stays flat, and a higher gain would result if SPY fell up to $3 (if it fell that far, we would make an adjustment to extend the downside potential).  Commissions would reduce results somewhat as well. The stock could go up as high as $116.50 before a loss would occur on the upside.  Clearly, this is an excellent hedge against a market drop, and it has the added advantage of also making gains if the market is flat or slightly higher.

How do we create an options portfolio like this?  It is the strategy we use when we want to bet on the direction of the market.  Most of the portfolios at Terry’s Tips make the assumption that we have no idea of which direction the market will take in the short run.

The 10K Bear portfolio involves buying put options with several months of remaining life and selling short-term (Weekly) puts to someone else.  The puts we sell are mostly at lower strikes than those we own.  Rather than trying to sell short-term puts which maximize the amount of short-term decay we could collect, we aim to sell just enough short-term decay to cover the decay of the longer-term puts we own.

In Greek terms (pardon me for using Greeks if you are not familiar with them), we seek to maximize the negative net delta of the portfolio while maintaining a positive theta.  As the stock fluctuates during the month, adjustments are often required to maintain these two goals.  (Adjustments we made in the August expiration month enabled the 10K Bear  portfolio to gain 55% while the original positions at the beginning of the month projected a gain of less than half that amount).

While this may seem to be a little complicated right now, if you become a Terry’s Tips subscriber, it should all become quite clear.  You can follow how the 10K Bear operates over time (as well as several other bullish-leaning portfolios) so that you can do it on your own if you wish.  (Most of our subscribers don’t do it on their own, but sign up for the Auto-Trade program at thinkorswim and have them execute the trades automatically for them).

Success Stories

I have been trading the equity markets with many different strategies for over 40 years. Terry Allen's strategies have been the most consistent money makers for me. I used them during the 2008 melt-down, to earn over 50% annualized return, while all my neighbors were crying about their losses.

~ John Collins

An Options Strategy That Can Deal With High Volatility

The New York Times published an article last week which showed how market volatility was greater than any time in history, and that there were many indications that such high volatility had now become the norm.

Some people call the current market activity a “wolf” market – neither a bear market nor a bull market, but one characterized by high short-term volatility, big swings in both directions, while the general market is not really charging higher or falling lower.

We have developed an options strategy to contend with a wolf market, and I would like to tell you a little about it today.

An Options Strategy That Can Deal With High Volatility

 

We call it the 10K Wolf portfolio.  It was started a little over a week ago with $10,000.  The portfolio consists of buying in-the-money SPY LEAPS that expire in June 2012.  We bought puts that had a strike price of 125 and calls that had a strike price of 115.

The advantage to buying long-term in-the-money puts and calls is that much of their value is intrinsic.  The time premium component is relatively small, and these options decay quite slowly, especially in the early months (before they have only 3 or 4 months of remaining life, when we would most likely sell them and replace them with longer-term puts and calls).

The total cost of each pair of LEAPS cost about $2800.  As long as SPY trades within the range of $115 – $125 (and we are not short any in-the-money options which we are careful to make sure of), the minimum value of the pair of LEAPS will be at least $1000. (Actually, if the stock moves outside that range, the total value of the put and call LEAPS would be greater than $1000).

That leaves $1800 of time premium that will decay over the 9 months of remaining life.  We will need to sell $200 worth of Weekly puts and calls each month to cover the decay of the LEAPS.

With today’s high option prices (they are high because volatility is high), we are able to sell out-of-the-money Weekly puts and calls that generate more than $200 in premium income each week.  If they remain out-of-the-money, they will expire worthless in a week and we can sell the next week’s out-of-the-money puts and calls, presumably collecting another $200 per pair of LEAPS that own).

You can see that we can sell enough premium each week to cover the decay that our long positions will suffer each month.  The other three weeks of option selling should be pure profit. The gains that we expect are really a little better than this example because in the early months, the pair of LEAPS will decay less than the $200 average that it will decay over the entire 9-month period.  In the later months when they will be decaying at more than $200, we would no longer own them.

Adjustments often need to be made during the week if the stock moves more than moderately in either direction.  Last week, SPY moved almost $5 higher.  We had to buy back short calls that had become in the money (the strike price was lower than the stock price) and replace them with higher-strike short calls.  Each of these trades meant that we had to shell out money, but at the same time, we bought back inexpensive well-out-of-the-money puts and replaced them with more costly higher-strike Weekly puts at a credit of approximately the same as rolling up the calls cost us.

Last week, in its first full week of operation, in spite of the volatility (the 10K Strategy does best in flat markets), the 10K Wolf gained 7.4% (after commissions, of course).  Some people would be happy with that kind of return for an entire year in today’s investment world.

Here is the risk profile graph for this portfolio for next week:

The break-even range is about $3 in either direction from the current SPY price of $121.52, assuming no adjustments are made. We would make about 7% in an absolutely flat market, or about 6% if SPY were to fluctuate less than $2 in either direction. Price changes higher than $2 would require that an adjustment be made, so it is not clear what the profit or loss might be.

Obviously, carrying out the 10K Wolf strategy takes a lot of work. Rather than doing it yourself, we think a better idea would be to become a Terry’s Tips Insider, sign up for the Auto-Trade program at thinkorswim and let them make all the trades that we make in this portfolio in your own account for you, so you will enjoy exactly the same results as our portfolio. You can read about your gains, and smile, when we send out the Saturday Report each week, or whenever you check up on your trading account.

Success Stories

I have been trading the equity markets with many different strategies for over 40 years. Terry Allen's strategies have been the most consistent money makers for me. I used them during the 2008 melt-down, to earn over 50% annualized return, while all my neighbors were crying about their losses.

~ John Collins

Using Options to Hedge Market Risk

Another crazy week in the market.  Investors vacillated from panic to manic and back to panic.  The net change for the week was not so significant, but the fluctuations were huge.  How can you cope with a market like this?

You might consider using options to hedge against market moves in both directions.  Check out how two of our portfolios are doing it.

Using Options to Hedge Market Risk   

Some Terry’s Tips subscribers choose to mirror in their own accounts one or more of our actual portfolios (or have trades executed automatically for them by their broker).  We recommend to that they select two portfolios, one of which does best in an up market and one that does best in a down market.

Almost all of our portfolios do best if not much of anything happens in the market, but that has not been the case in the last few weeks.  It is during times like this that both a bullish and bearish portfolio be carried out at the same time.

We have one bearish portfolio.  It is called the 10K Bear.  It is currently worth about $5000 (although we have withdrawn $2000 from it to keep it at the $5000 level for new subscribers – it had gone up in value by 54% over the last couple of months while the market was weak).

Here is the risk profile graph for the 10K Bear portfolio.  It shows how much the $5000 portfolio should gain or lose by the regular September options expiration this Friday at the various possible ending prices for SPY (currently trading just under $116): 

Using Options to Hedge Market Risk

  

Some Terry’s Tips subscribers choose to mirror in their own accounts one or more of our actual portfolios (or have trades executed automatically for them by their broker).  We recommend to that they select two portfolios, one of which does best in an up market and one that does best in a down market.

Almost all of our portfolios do best if not much of anything happens in the market, but that has not been the case in the last few weeks.  It is during times like this that both a bullish and bearish portfolio be carried out at the same time.

We have one bearish portfolio.  It is called the 10K Bear.  It is currently worth about $5000 (although we have withdrawn $2000 from it to keep it at the $5000 level for new subscribers – it had gone up in value by 54% over the last couple of months while the market was weak).

Here is the risk profile graph for the 10K Bear portfolio.  It shows how much the $5000 portfolio should gain or lose by the regular September options expiration this Friday at the various possible ending prices for SPY (currently trading just under $116):

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?Remember, this is an actual brokerage account at thinkorswim which any paying Terry’s Tips subscriber can duplicate if he or she wishes.  The graph shows that if the stock stays absolutely flat next week, there could be a gain of over $1000 for the week.  If the stock should fall by $2, an even higher gain should result.  (Once the stock falls by $2, we would likely make some downside adjustments so that further drops in the stock price would generate higher gains.  After all, this is our bearish bet.)

Where else could you expect a 20% gain if the market doesn’t move one bit?  In a single week?  Or even more if the market should fall?

Admittedly, today’s option prices are extremely high (in 92% of the weeks over the last 5 years, option prices have been lower than they are right now, so we are in truly unusual times).  The risk profile graphs for our portfolios usually do not look as promising as they do right now.

One of the bullish portfolios that we recommend to be matched against the 10K Bear portfolio is called the Ultra Vixen.  This portfolio is based on the underlying “stock” (actually an ETN, an exchange traded note) called VXX.  This index is based on the short-term futures of VIX (the measure of SPY option prices, the so-called “fear index”).  When the market drops, VIX generally rises (as do the VIX futures prices), and VXX usually moves higher.  Over the last month while the market dropped over 10%, VXX has more than doubled in price.  For that reason, many people consider VXX to be an excellent hedge against market crashes.

We don’t like VXX as an investment possibility, however.  Over time, due to a mechanism called contango (futures prices become more expensive in further-out months), VXX is destined to fall over time.  It may be a good hedge as a short-term investment but is awful as a long-term holding.  It fell for 12 consecutive months last year, for example, even though VIX fluctuated in both directions.

Our Ultra Vixen portfolio is set up to benefit when VXX goes down (which it does when the market is flat or goes up).  We generally maintain a net short position on VXX with some call positions for protection in case the stock does go up.  However, our portfolio does best if the market stays flat or moves higher, so it is a good hedge against the 10K Bear portfolio.

Here is the risk profile graph for Ultra Vixen for next Friday’s expiration (September 16th).  It is a $10,000 portfolio and the underlying stock (VXX) is trading about $45.83:

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?The graph shows that a 10% gain for the week is possible if the stock falls as much as $3 or goes up by as much as $2.  (Historically, in about half the weeks, VXX fluctuates by less than a dollar in either direction.)  Where else besides options do you find opportunities like this?  In a single week?

Both the 10K Bear and Ultra Vixen portfolios should make excellent gains every week when the market is flat, and one or the other should make gains when the market moves more than moderately in either direction.  Theoretically, if the two portfolios together break even in the high-fluctuation weeks and they both make gains when the market doesn’t do much of anything, the long-run combined results should be extraordinary.

Success Stories

I have been trading the equity markets with many different strategies for over 40 years. Terry Allen's strategies have been the most consistent money makers for me. I used them during the 2008 melt-down, to earn over 50% annualized return, while all my neighbors were crying about their losses.

~ John Collins

Some Thoughts About Options Trading

Last week was a crazy one in the market – four days of gains and then a big crash on Friday when the jobs report came out and said that there were no new jobs created last month, the worst showing in eleven months.  It was a tough week for our portfolios (we generally hate volatility) but our bearish portfolio racked up a 5.5%, the seventh week in a row when it made gains.  Over this period, this portfolio has picked up 58% in value while SPY has fallen by 8.8%.

This week I would like to share some of my thoughts about my favorite subject.  Guess what it is?

Some Thoughts About Options Trading   

I think the key to options trading success is the exact same key to stock trading success; the ability to pick stocks or ETFs that will perform exactly as you would like it to.

In stock trading, you make money only when you buy stocks that go up or short stocks that go down.

In options trading, you make money when you apply bullish options strategies on stocks that go up, bearish options strategies on stocks that go down, neutral options strategies on stocks that remain stagnant or volatile options strategies on stocks that stage quick and explosive breakouts.

You only lose money in options trading when you apply bullish options strategies on stocks that goes down, bearish options strategies on stocks that go up, neutral options strategies on stocks that breaks out and volatile options strategies on stocks that remain stagnant.

Even though the key to success in options trading is largely the same as the key to success in stock trading or any other forms of investment or trading, options trading does have a few tricks up its sleeves to help put the odds in your favor.

First of all is leverage and protection.  The ability to risk lesser capital for the same profit or a lot more profit with the same capital already puts the benefit of risk in your favor.
 
Second is the ability to make a profit in more than one direction!  Yes, since the key to success in options trading is the ability to “guess” the correct direction the underlying stock or index is going to take, won’t your chances of success be dramatically increased if you could profit in more than one direction?

For example, the 10K Strategy which we employ at Terry’s Tips (a strategy using calendar spreads at several different strike prices) makes a profit when the stock goes upwards, remains stagnant OR drops a little!  Yes, all 3 directions.  Won’t your chances of success be dramatically increased with a strategy like that?

The key to stock investing is to pick the right stock(s).  Almost no one, even the professionals can do that consistently.  That is why options trading increases the odds of success in your favor if you use a strategy that profits from more than one direction.  This is a huge advantage that you do not get when you invest in stock – it only exists in option trading.

Success Stories

I have been trading the equity markets with many different strategies for over 40 years. Terry Allen's strategies have been the most consistent money makers for me. I used them during the 2008 melt-down, to earn over 50% annualized return, while all my neighbors were crying about their losses.

~ John Collins

Creative Ways to Profitably Trade Options

For over 11 years, Terry’s Tips has carried out different option strategies in actual brokerage accounts.  Of course, commissions are paid in these accounts so the results are exactly what you would experience if you followed the trades we make.

Paying subscribers can watch these portfolios unfold over time to get a better understanding on what causes the bottom line to grow or shrink (yes, unfortunately, that does happen occasionally).

Today I would like to discuss how three of these portfolios are set up and how they did last week.

Creative Ways to Profitably Trade Options   

Most of our strategies involve buying LEAPS or other longer-term options and selling short-term (higher decaying) against these long positions.  While that is the central idea, there is a multitude of ways it can be carried out.

We use the central idea in an unusual way in a portfolio we call the Last Minute.  It sits in cash until late in the day on Thursday when we make a guess as to whether we think SPY will move more or less than $2 on Friday.  If we think it won’t move by that much (like we did last week in spite of Mr. Bernanke’s upcoming speech), we buy calendar spreads at several different strikes, some above and some below the stock price.

Last week, we might have done better to have guessed in the other direction since SPY moved by more than $2 on the upside and almost that much on the downside.  But during the day, when the stock had moved up about $.45, we sold all our calendar spreads, making a nice 22% gain after commissions for a single day of trading.

The Last Minute portfolio has made gains in 14 of the 17 weeks it has been running, and has made 187% on the average weekly investment.  (One of the losing weeks was only a $39 loss, and in another one, I made an uncharacteristically stupid trading decision and passed up an 8% gain only to lose money by the end of the day.)

Another portfolio which uses the central idea is set up for subscribers who are fearful that the market might move lower.  It is called the 10K Bear.  Two weeks ago, SPY fell by 4.6% in a single week and our 10K Bear portfolio gained 17.5% after commissions.  Last week, SPY did a complete turn-around and rose 4.7%.  Our 10K Bear portfolio managed to gain 1% for the week in spite of being on the wrong side of the trend.  Admittedly, option prices are unusually high right now, and this bearish portfolio could not be expected to make a gain with such a stock price move in normal times, but it is nice to see that in today’s market, we seem to be able to make weekly gains no matter which way the market moves.

A third portfolio uses the central idea in a different way.  We picked an underlying stock (AAPL) which we think is headed higher, and instead of selling as much short-term premium as we can, we sell just enough to cover the decay of our long positions.  If the stock goes higher, we should experience a much greater percentage gain than the stock.  Last week, in spite of Steve Jobs’ resignation, AAPL gained 7.7%.  Our portfolio gained a whopping 31.4%, proving once again that options can consistently outperform stock.

Success Stories

I have been trading the equity markets with many different strategies for over 40 years. Terry Allen's strategies have been the most consistent money makers for me. I used them during the 2008 melt-down, to earn over 50% annualized return, while all my neighbors were crying about their losses.

~ John Collins

An analogy – Checkers is to buying stocks as chess is to trading options

Last week we saw the market fall for the fourth consecutive week.  Volatility in the options market shot higher than we have seen in many years.  As usual, there are abundant ways in the options market that do not exist in conventional investments.

For example, our Bearish SPY portfolio gained 17.5% last week while the market (SPY) fell by 4.5%.  This portfolio has now gained 42.3% over the last couple of months as the market has steadily gone down.

Today I would like to discuss a little about the challenges of learning a bit more about the options business.

An analogy – Checkers is to buying stocks as chess is to trading options

Someone said that investing in stocks is pretty much like playing checkers.  Any 10-year old can do it.  You really don’t need much experience or understanding.  If you can read, you can buy stock (and probably do just about as well as anyone else because it’s basically a roulette wheel choice in spite of the near universal belief that you are smarter than anyone else).

Options, on the other hand, is more like playing chess.  It can be (and is, for anyone who is serious about it) a life-time learning experience.

You don’t see columns in the newspaper about interesting checker strategies, but you see a ton of pundits telling you why you should buy particular stocks.  People with little understanding or experience buy stocks every day, and most of their transactions involve buying from professionals with far more resources and brains (and for some reason, these professionals are selling the stock to them instead of buying it).

Option investing takes study and understanding and discipline that the purchase of stock does not require.  Every investor must decide for himself or herself if they are willing to make the time and study commitment necessary to be successful in option trading.  Most people are not.

It is a whole lot easier to play a decent game of checkers than it is to play a decent game of chess.  But for some of us, options investing is a whole lot more challenging, and ultimately more rewarding.

Success Stories

I have been trading the equity markets with many different strategies for over 40 years. Terry Allen's strategies have been the most consistent money makers for me. I used them during the 2008 melt-down, to earn over 50% annualized return, while all my neighbors were crying about their losses.

~ John Collins

Finding an Implied Volatility Advantage

This market has surely been a crazy one. It has been a difficult one for many of our portfolios that do best if the market is flat rather than gyrating all over the place. But right now, option prices are such that new spreads promise to do exceptionally well, especially if the market manages to settle down a bit.

Today I would like to discuss an important feature of buying calendar (or diagonal) spreads.

Finding an Implied Volatility Advantage

 

When market professionals talk about the Implied Volatility (IV) of a particular stock or ETF, they are referring to the at-the-money current-month put and call options for that underlying instrument.

While it makes total sense that every option for a particular underlying should have the same IV, in reality it is usually not the case.  Some options are more expensive than they “should” be and others may be cheaper than they “should” be.

When I was a market maker on the CBOE, one of my favorite tactics was to find discrepancies in IVs of options on the same underlying, selling the “over-priced” options and buying the “under-priced” options.  I would try to maintain a neutral net delta condition at all times so I didn’t care whether the stock went up or down while I waited for the market to correct itself and move the IVs of both sets of options closer to parity.   (I surely wasn’t alone in using this tactic, as it was, and still is, one of the most widely-employed strategies on the floor.)

The 10K Strategy that we carry out at Terry’s Tips involves buying LEAPS (or other longer-term options) and selling short-term options (sometimes Weeklys) against them.  If the long and short sides of the spread are at the same strike, it is called a calendar spread, while if they are at different strike prices, it is a diagonal spread.

In the best of all possible worlds, we would seek out underlying stocks where the LEAPS carried a lower IV (so they were “cheaper”) than the IV of the short-term options (which were more “expensive”).  Whenever we enjoyed this difference in IVs, we know that we have an IV Advantage.
   
Most of the portfolios that we carry out at Terry’s Tips use SPY as the underlying, in spite of the fact that there rarely is an IV Advantage for that ETF.  It is more likely to be found for individual company options, especially when there is a rumor or earnings announcement coming soon, as short-term options often see unusually high IVs in anticipation of such events.

At the present time, the short-term options for SPY carry a higher IV than do longer-term options.   The August options that expire this Friday carry an IV of 36 while SPY options expiring in January 2013 have an IV of only 28.  This would be a perfect time to place the kind of calendar spreads that are the basis of our most popular strategy.

While having an IV Advantage stacks the deck in your favor, it should not be used as a sole determinate in choosing an underlying instrument to trade options on.  It is possible to make good returns with the 10K Strategy when you don’t enjoy an IV Advantage, but it is extremely helpful whenever option prices make it possible.    

Success Stories

I have been trading the equity markets with many different strategies for over 40 years. Terry Allen's strategies have been the most consistent money makers for me. I used them during the 2008 melt-down, to earn over 50% annualized return, while all my neighbors were crying about their losses.

~ John Collins

Using Options to Protect Against a Market Crash

We carry out a Bearish portfolio for our subscribers to follow (either by mirroring our trades on their own or having trades made for them by thinkorswim through its Auto-Trade program). Subscribers who follow this portfolio are happy campers this week. They made 26% on their money last week while most everyone else was suffering.

Today I would like to tell you how this bearish portfolio works.

Terry

Using Options to Protect Against a Market Crash

Our bearish portfolio is made up of put LEAP options that we buy (at strike prices which are higher than the current stock price) and short-term put options that we sell (at strike prices which are lower than the current stock price).  We use options on SPY so we are betting that the market in general will fall rather than just one individual stock.

The neat thing about this strategy is that if the market doesn’t fall (but stays flat), it also returns a nice profit.  It can even go up a couple of dollars and a gain should result.  Here is what the risk profile graph looks like for a typical bearish option portfolio using our strategy:

This is a Bearish options portfolio with $7000 invested.  This risk profile graph shows what gains or losses might come in two weeks at the August 19, 2011 expiration.

You can see that if the stock ends up flat in two weeks ($120.08), this portfolio should gain almost $1100 (17%).  If it should fall a couple of dollars, the gain should be about $1600 (23%).  No matter how far the stock falls in the two-week period, a minimum gain of $1000 should result.  That is just what happened last week when this portfolio gained 26%.

If the stock goes up $2, this portfolio also makes money (about 4% for two weeks).  A loss situation only results if the stock were to go up by about $3.  

An important part of this strategy involves making adjustments if the stock starts moving significantly in either direction.  Last week, when it started going down, we had to buy back short puts we had sold that had become in the money (i.e., the stock price was higher than the strike price).  We replaced these short puts with lower-strike puts (at strikes which were lower than the stock price).  This kind of adjustment tends to shift the entire risk profile graph curve to the left.

How many bearish investments can you make and still expect a gain even if you are wrong? Shorting stock only makes money if you are right and the stock falls.  Buying puts is usually a bad idea because they become worth less every day that the stock fails to fall.

A properly-executed options strategy can make big gains if the stock remains flat, smaller gains if the stock moves slightly higher, and very large gains if the stock falls. Where else besides options can you find this kind of opportunity?  If you know of one, please send it along to me.

Success Stories

I have been trading the equity markets with many different strategies for over 40 years. Terry Allen's strategies have been the most consistent money makers for me. I used them during the 2008 melt-down, to earn over 50% annualized return, while all my neighbors were crying about their losses.

~ John Collins

Carrying Out the Last Minute Strategy

Last week was the worst week for the market in a year. Most investors are not happy campers. A few of our portfolios did quite well, however. Our bearish one gained, of course, but two others did well in spite of the crashing averages.

Last week we discussed our William Tell portfolio which is an options bet that AAPL will move higher. Last week, the stock fell slightly, but our William Tell portfolio gained 2.3%, once again demonstrating that an options portfolio can outperform the outright purchase of stock (see free report that explains it all below).

Our Last Minute portfolio gained 27% on the amount invested last week. This is the portfolio I would like to talk about today.

Terry

Carrying Out the Last Minute Strategy

We carry out one portfolio that is a little unusual in many respects.  It is entirely in cash until late in the day each Thursday.  At that point, we decide whether we expect that SPY will fluctuate by more or less than a dollar on Friday.  If there is an important report coming out on Friday (such as the government’s job report which is due next week on the 5th), history has shown that SPY is quite likely to move by a fairly large amount in one direction or the other.  Other weeks, when the stock has moved by a dollar or more for several days in a row, we would expect that level of volatility to continue on Friday (which often has the greatest volatility of the week).

If we expect the market (SPY) to move by more than a dollar on Friday, we buy straddles or strangles.  If we expect it to move by less than a dollar on Friday, we buy calendar spreads (the long side with only 8 days of remaining life and the short side with one day of remaining life).

Last Thursday, we had trouble deciding which way to go, and we decided to invest less than half our money.  Ironically, we could have selected either straddles or calendars and we would have made money last week.  Early in the day, the stock fell by almost $1.50, but it ended up falling only $.89 for the day.

We bought straddles, the Jul5-11 131 calls and Jul5-11 130 puts, paying $1.12 each.  We bought 20 straddles, investing $2240.  When the market tanked early in the morning, we sold those straddles for $1.47.  We made a gain of $607, or 27% for the day (after commissions).

This was the fourth consecutive week that the Last Minute portfolio has made a gain.  Over that time, we have gained a total of $2860 on an average investment of $3450.  That works out to 83% on the money at risk (per unit, and many subscribers invest in lots of units).

We also would have made a gain last week if we had guessed the stock would move less than a dollar on Friday.  In that case, since SPY was trading between $130 and $131, we would have bought calendar spreads at the 130 and 131 strikes (either puts or calls could have been used, but we typically would have bought put calendars at the 130 strike and call calendars at the 131 strike).

These two spreads would have made a gain if the net change in SPY for the day was less than a dollar.  It was, at $.89, so we couldn’t have gone wrong last week.

We are having a lot of fun with this Last Minute portfolio, and so far, it has been quite profitable as well.

By coming on the Terry’s Tips bandwagon, you can play along with us in the Last Minute portfolio as well as 7 other portfolios, including the William Tell that has done so well as AAPL has moved higher.

We have written a detailed report on how the actual William Tell portfolio gained over 100% in 2010-11 while the stock rose only 25%.  You will learn how you can use the Shoot Strategy on any other stock of your choosing as well.  You can get this special report free when you subscribe to the Terry’s Tips service for a price which is less than a dinner for two at a decent restaurant – only $79.95 for the whole enchilada, including:

1)    My 72-page White Paper which explains my favorite option strategies in detail, including Trading Rules for each, and 20 companies to use with the “Lazy Way” Strategy, (which guarantees a 100% gain in 2 years if the stock stays flat or goes up).

2)    2 FREE months of the Options Tutorial Program (a $49.90 value), which includes:
·    A 14-lesson tutorial on trading stock options which will give you a thorough understanding of trading stock options.
·    A weekly update of 8 actual portfolios so that you can follow their progress over time.
·    Specific trades for each portfolio emailed to you so you may mirror them in your own account if you wish.
·    Access to historical analytic reports and portfolio updates posted in the Insiders section of Terry’s Tips.
·    If you choose to continue after the 2 free months, do nothing, and you’ll be billed at a discounted rate of $19.95 per month.  

3)    A FREE special report  “How We Made 100% on Apple in 2010-11 While AAPL Rose Only 25%“.

With this one-time offer, you will receive everything for only $79.95, the price of the White Paper alone. But you must order by Tuesday, August 2, 2011. Click here and enter Special Code 802 in the box at the bottom of the page to get the special Apple report as a free bonus.

Success Stories

I have been trading the equity markets with many different strategies for over 40 years. Terry Allen's strategies have been the most consistent money makers for me. I used them during the 2008 melt-down, to earn over 50% annualized return, while all my neighbors were crying about their losses.

~ John Collins

Using Options as an Alternative to Buying Stock

Apple (AAPL) announced blow-out earnings last week, up double from a year earlier. Wouldn’t you be happy if you owned some of the stock? You would have picked up a nice gain of 7.8% last week. Some people would be happy with that kind of gain for a whole year in this current market.

If you were a Terry’s Tips subscriber, and followed our actual options portfolio using AAPL, you would have been even happier. Your investment would have gained 27.2% last week, more than three times as much as the stock went up. (I personally own 6 units of this portfolio, and gained enough last week to pay for a semester of college for one of my grandchildren.)

Today I will explain a little about this portfolio which uses stock options as a proxy for owning stock in AAPL (or any company of your choosing as long as options are traded on that company).

Using Options as an Alternative to Buying Stock 

At Terry’s Tips, we do not advise buying stock in companies. We don’t think we’re smart enough to pick the big winners. Instead, we make the assumption that we have no idea which way the market is headed, and trade options on the market in general (the S&P 500 tracking stock – SPY).

But we know that people love to pick stocks. So we have devised a demonstration option portfolio to show how you can make several times as much money with options than you could by just buying shares of the company’s stock. We selected AAPL as the underlying stock for this portfolio.

We call this strategy the Shoot Strategy (as in Shoot for the Stars). One neat thing about this strategy is that it makes money even if the stock stays absolutely flat. It doesn’t make a lot of money if the stock stays flat, but anything at all is better than the return you get from owning the stock (unless it pays a dividend, of course).

The Shoot Strategy consists of buying longer-term call options (sometimes called LEAPS) and also selling short-term calls against these long calls. The short calls are at higher strike prices than the long calls we own. Rather than maximizing the short-term time premium that we collect from selling the calls, we sell just enough to slightly more than cover the premium decay that will take place in the longer term calls we own (all options decline in value over time if the stock stays flat, but the short-term calls we have sold to someone else decline at a faster rate than the longer-term calls that we own).

Here is the risk profile graph for our current AAPL demonstration portfolio (we call it the William Tell) for an $8700 unit as of July 22nd when the stock closed at $391.49. The graph shows how much will be gained or loss at the August 19, 2011 expiration of the August calls that we have sold (at the various possible prices of AAPL on that date).

You can see that if the stock remains absolutely flat, the portfolio should gain $1517.80 (about 17%) in a single month (admittedly, that is unusually high for this portfolio, and we will probably make a trade next week which will cause a lower gain at a flat stock price and higher gains if the stock moves higher.

If the stock does move higher by $10 or $20 over the next month, the portfolio should gain over 20%.  The stock can fall as much as $10 before a loss will result (owners of the stock lose money even if it falls by a single dollar).   

We have written a detailed report on how the actual William Tell portfolio gained over 100% in 2010-11 while the stock rose only 25%.  You will learn how you can use the Shoot Strategy on any other stock of your choosing as well.  You can get this special report free when you subscribe to the Terry’s Tips service for a price which is less than a dinner for two at a decent restaurant – only $79.95 for the whole enchilada, including:

1)    My 72-page White Paper which explains my favorite option strategies in detail, including Trading Rules for each, and 20 companies to use with the “Lazy Way” Strategy, (which guarantees a 100% gain in 2 years if the stock stays flat or goes up).

2)    2 FREE months of the Options Tutorial Program (a $49.90 value), which includes:
·    A 14-lesson tutorial on trading stock options which will give you a thorough understanding of trading stock options.
·    A weekly update of 8 actual portfolios so that you can follow their progress over time.
·    Specific trades for each portfolio emailed to you so you may mirror them in your own account if you wish.
·    Access to historical analytic reports and portfolio updates posted in the Insiders section of Terry’s Tips.
·    If you choose to continue after the 2 free months, do nothing, and you’ll be billed at a discounted rate of $19.95 per month.  

3)    A FREE special report  “How We Made 100% on Apple in 2010-11 While AAPL Rose Only 25%“.

With this one-time offer, you will receive everything for only $79.95, the price of the White Paper alone. But you must order by Tuesday, August 2, 2011. Click here and enter Special Code 802 in the box at the bottom of the page to get the special Apple report as a free bonus.

Success Stories

I have been trading the equity markets with many different strategies for over 40 years. Terry Allen's strategies have been the most consistent money makers for me. I used them during the 2008 melt-down, to earn over 50% annualized return, while all my neighbors were crying about their losses.

~ John Collins

Success Stories

I have been trading the equity markets with many different strategies for over 40 years. Terry Allen's strategies have been the most consistent money makers for me. I used them during the 2008 melt-down, to earn over 50% annualized return, while all my neighbors were crying about their losses.

~ John Collins