Last week, VIX fell to as low as we have seen in four years.  I believe this has created a short-term buying opportunity.  Option prices (volatility) should be headed higher (in my opinion). 

How to Cash in on the Crash of VIX:  

As most of you know, VIX is the volatility measure based on option prices of the S&P 500 tracking stock, SPY. Last week, it had fallen all the way to 15.45, about the lowest level we have seen in several years. 

VIX is the so-called “fear index,” and historically has moved higher when there was uncertainty (or lower stock prices) in the market.  Back in 2007, a VIX this low was probably appropriate.  The stock market had been on a slightly-upward flattish direction for many months, and there was little unrest in our domestic economy or around the world.  In 2008 when markets imploded, VIX rose as high as 80.

Today, there seems to be uncertainty all over the place.  Some people are talking about the possibility of a double dip recession, while others focus on escalating oil prices, high unemployment, and most of all, a melt-down in several European countries that might have a domino effect on our economy.

So where has all the market fear gone?  There are a huge number of uncertainties in the current economic world, both at home and abroad, and the market seems to be ignoring them. 

Over the years, VIX has shown a strong inclination to revert to the mean, and the mean is 20.54.  I think it is inevitable that VIX will climb back up toward, or above, 20 in the near future.  If this is the case, how can you benefit from it?

A Time to Buy VXX? This stock (actually an exchange-traded note, ETN) is highly correlated to VIX.  It is based on the futures of VIX which are generally closely related to VIX.  It closed yesterday at $13.20, the lowest price in quite a long time.  About six months ago (when VIX was in the 30’s), VXX traded in the low $40’s).

On one hand, I believe that it is highly unlikely to go much lower, and on the other, I expect that some unforeseen event will surely come along at some point to spook the market and send VIX and VXX sharply higher.

There is one serious shortcoming of owning VXX, however.  Due to the way it is constructed, something called contango reduces its value every month that the futures for VIX remain unchanged.  For this reason, the only time that it is a good idea to buy VXX is when VIX is unusually low (and there are reasons to believe that it is headed higher).

An ETN that benefits every month from contango is the inverse of VXX.  It is called XIV (the inverse of VIX).  Last October, when XIV was trading about $6.70 (and VIX was in the 30’s), I made a major investment in VIX (and made an impassioned plea to my subscribers to do the same).  Now that VIX is less than half what it was then, last week I sold most of my holdings for more than $13, almost doubling my money over that period.  With VIX so low, I believe that there is a better chance that XIV will suffer from a rising VIX than there is that it will benefit from the contango tailwinds that it usually enjoys.  (When VIX moves over 20, I will probably buy XIV once again).

On last Friday when the market fell by almost 1%, VIX rose from 15.45 to 16.27 (5.3%) and VXX rose from $12.55 to $13.20 (5.2%) to give an idea of the potential gain for VXX if option volatility moves back to its mean average of 20.54.

Another way to play VXX is to buy the stock and write a call against it, or at least against some of it.  With VXX trading at $13.20, an August 14 call could be sold for $.74 which would give you a 5.6% gain for one month if the stock doesn’t change, or an 11.6% gain if it closes above $14, the call you sold is exercised, and you lose the stock.  Either scenario does not seem so bad for a single month. 

The key assumption here is that VXX is quite unlikely to trade any lower than it is right now.  I believe that this is a reasonable assumption to make.  While it might trade lower temporarily, history says that it won’t stay down there for long.

VXX has been recognized as one of the best hedges against a falling market.  Some analysts have stated that a $10,000 investment in VXX will protect a $100,000 market portfolio of stock (although my estimate is that it would take about a $25,000 investment to accomplish that).  Once again, however, because of the contango issue, when VIX is at or above the mean of 20.54, it is generally not a good idea to buy VXX unless you strongly believe that uncertainty, and option prices, are headed higher.

In any event, I think VXX is a good short-term buy right now as a bet that option volatility will rise as things in Europe start spooking the market once again (in spite of the contango issue that will depress its value somewhat).

For most of the last year, the market (SPY) and many individual stocks have fluctuated more than the implied volatility of the options would predict.  This situation has made it quite difficult to make gains with the calendar spread strategy that we have long advocated.

Now we are experimenting with buying straddles as an alternative to our basic strategy.  This represents a total reversal from hoping for a flat market to betting on a fluctuating one.

Today I would like to report on a straddle purchase I made last week.

Another Buying Straddles Story

I selected the Russell 2000 (Small-Cap) Index (IWM) as the underlying. For many years, this equity seems to fluctuate in the same direction and by about the same amount as the market in general (SPY) although it is trading for far less ($80 vs. $134) so the percentage fluctuations are greater.

On Monday morning, IWM was trading right about $80. I bought an 80 straddle using IWM (Jul2-12 puts and calls), paying $1.53 for the pair.  If IWM moved by $1.53 in either direction, the intrinsic value of either the puts or calls would be $1.53, and there would be some time premium remaining so that either the puts or calls could be sold for a profit.

How likely was IWM to move by more than $1.53 in either direction in only one week?  Looking back at weekly price behavior for IWM, I found that in 62 of the past 66 weeks, IWM had fluctuated at least $1.60 during the week in one direction or another.  That is the key number I needed to make the purchase.  That meant that if the historical pattern repeated itself, I could count on making a profit in 94% of the weeks.  I would be quite happy with anything near that result.

Buying a straddle fits my temperament because I was not choosing which way the market might be headed (something I know from experience that I can’t do very well, at least in the short term), and I knew that I could not lose 100% of my investment (even on Friday and the stock had not moved, there would still be some time premium remaining in the options that could be sold for something).

One on the biggest problems with trading straddles is the decision on when to sell one or both sides of the trade.  We’ll discuss some of the choices next week.  What I did was place a limit order to take a reasonable profit if it came along.  When IWM had fallen about $1.75, I sold my puts for $1.85 on Thursday.  On Friday the stock reversed itself, and I was able to collect $.17 by selling the calls, making a total 20% after commissions for the week. Not a bad result, I figured.  

At some point during the week, there were opportunities to sell both the puts and calls for more than I sold them for, but I was delighted with taking a reasonable profit.  You can’t look back when trading straddles.  If I had not sold the calls but waited until the end of the week, I would have lost about 70% of my original purchase.  So selling when you have a small profit is clearly the way to go.

Last Friday was the government’s monthly jobs report.  Historically, the market has been unusually volatile on those Fridays when the actual numbers either exceed expectations or are disappointing.  Last week we gave the results of a strangle trade we made a year ago which resulted in a gain of 67% for the day.

Last Thursday we made a similar bet, this time using a straddle.  Here is how it worked out for us.

Last Week’s Trade – Buying Straddles With Weekly Options

Near the close on Friday, the stock (SPY) was trading right around $137 and it was possible to buy both a Jul2-12 137 put and a 137 call which would expire one day later for $1.18 ($118 per spread plus $2.50 commissions).  We bought 7 spreads, paying $843.50 including commissions.  

This is called buying a straddle.  If at any point on Friday, SPY changed in value by more than $1.00 in either direction, we could sell those options at a profit.  (At any price above $138, the calls could be sold for more than we paid for the straddle, and at any price below $136, the puts could be sold for more than we paid for the straddle.)

The market expected that 100,000 new jobs would be created, but the actual results were lower – about 80,000.  When the market opened up just over a dollar lower, it seemed not to be going anywhere so we took a profit, selling the puts for $155 each, collecting $1076.25 after commissions (the calls expired worthless and no commission was involved).  Our net gain on the trade was $235, or 27.8% on the initial investment.

We were hoping that the stock would reverse itself after the early drop so that we could sell the calls later in the day and add to our gain, but that never happened.

If we had waited until later in the day the profit could have been more than double this amount but if we had waited until the end of the day it would have been less.  There is no easy answer as to when to sell a straddle, but we will probably continue our strategy of taking a moderate profit when it comes along.  Another way to play it would have been to sell enough of the spreads to break even and let the others ride in hopes of a windfall gain.

Straddle buyers like volatility as much as we don’t like it in our other portfolios.  What they like best is a whip-saw market where the market moves sharply higher (and they sell their calls) and then down (when they unload their puts).   There are many ways to profit with options. Buying straddles when option prices are low and volatility is high is one very good way to make extraordinary gains.

The downside to buying straddles is that if the market doesn’t fluctuate much, you could lose every penny of your investment.  This makes it a much riskier investment than the other option strategies we recommend at Terry’s Tips.  

However, straddle-buying can be quite profitable if the current market patterns persist.  Right now, VIX (the so-called “fear index” that measures how high option prices are for SPY options) is at 17.10 compared to its mean average of 20.54.  This means that option prices are relatively low right now.  Last December, for example, when VIX was about 25, the same straddle we bought last week for $118 would have cost over $200.

On Friday, a SPY 137 at-the-money straddle with one week of remaining life (expiring July 13, 2012) could have been bought for $1.99 ($199 each).  If at any time during the next week, if SPY fluctuated more than $2, the straddle should be trading for more than $2.  Over the past 13 weeks, SPY has moved in one direction or another by at least $2 in 11 of those weeks, and in one week it fell by $1.94 at one point.

Straddle buyers like volatility as much as we don’t like it in our other portfolios.   There are many ways to profit with options. It is best to remain flexible, and use the option strategy that best matches current market conditions. Buying straddles or strangles when option prices are low and volatility is high is one very good way to make extraordinary gains, as we happily did last week.

The downside to buying straddles or strangles is that if the market doesn’t fluctuate much, you could lose every penny of your investment (although if you don’t wait too much longer than mid-day on the day options expire, even out-of-the-money options retain some value and should be able to be sold for something).  This makes it a much riskier investment than the other option strategies we recommend at Terry’s Tips.  However, straddle- or strangle-buying can be quite profitable if the current market patterns persist.

Exactly one year ago, we spoke about an interesting options play that might be made before the July jobs report came out.  This Friday, the July 2012 report will come out before the market opens, and a similar trade might be in order.  It is interesting to note that one year ago, the market (SPY) was almost exactly where it is today.

 

Here are my exact words delivered on the Monday following the jobs report: “This week I would like to share an actual investment we made last Thursday which involved buying a close relative of a straddle called a strangle (buying a put and a call but at different strike prices).  Admittedly, the word strangle does not have the greatest of connotations, but it can be a wonderful thing as we learned last week.

 

Terry

 

Buying Strangles With Weekly Options (and How We Made 67% in a Single Day Last Week)

 

On Thursdays which precede the government monthly job reports,  we have sometimes employed a strategy that only does well if the stock (SPY) moves significantly in either direction once the report is published (we have noticed that volatility tends to be extreme on those days when the jobs report comes out).  Rather than betting that SPY will fluctuate by less than a dollar on Friday (the usual kind of bet we make), on the Thursday preceding the Friday jobs report, we sometimes buy either a straddle or strangle that will most likely make money if SPY moves by more than a dollar on Friday.

 

This was the Trade Alert we sent out to Insiders on Thursday, July 7, 2011 with about 10 minutes remaining in the trading day:

 

“July 7, 2011  Trade Alert  –  Last Minute  Portfolio

With the government jobs report due tomorrow, we would rather bet that the stock moves by a dollar or more rather than placing calendar spreads that make a gain only if the stock moves by less than a dollar.  We will invest only about a quarter of our available cash:

 

BTO 30 Jul2-11 135 put (SPY110708P135)

BTO 30 Jul2-11 136 call (SPY110708C136) for $.68 (buying a strangle)”

 

With SPY trading just about half way between $135 and $136 Thursday afternoon, we decided to buy the above strangle rather than a straddle.  If the stock had been closer to one particular strike price, we would have opted for a straddle instead.

 

We bought 30 strangles for $68 each, investing $2040.

 

If at any point on Friday, SPY changed in value by more than $1.00 in either direction, we could probably sell those options at a profit.  (At any price above $136.50, the calls could probably be sold for more than $68 we paid for the strangle, and at any price below $135.50, the puts could be sold for more than we paid for the strangle.)  A small amount could also probably be gained by selling the other side of the strangle as well (unless the stock moved well more than a dollar).

 

When the government report came out on Friday, the market was spooked by the poor numbers  – Non-farm private payrolls were expected to grow by 110,000 while the actual number was a disappointing 57,000.  Total nonfarm payrolls grew only 18,000 compared to an expected 80,000 (government jobs dropped by 39,000). The stock (SPY) opened down $1.40 and moved down almost $2 during the day.

 

Early in the day while the 135 puts were trading at about $1.00, we placed a limit order to sell 25 of our 30 puts at $1.10, and the order was executed about a half hour later. This would insure that we made a profit for the day no matter what happened from that point forward.  We were hoping that either the stock moved lower and we could sell the remaining 5 puts for a higher price or the stock would make a big move upward and maybe we could collect something from selling our 30 calls at the 136 strike.

 

The stock continued to fall, and later in the day we placed an order to sell the remaining 5 puts. We collected $1.52 ($152) each for them.  That wasn’t the absolute high for the day but it was darn close.  Had we waited until the close, we would have only received $.37 for those puts, and lost money on our investment.  This proves the value in taking a profit on the great majority of positions whenever it might come up rather than waiting for a possible windfall gain if the stock continues in only one direction.

 

Bottom line, we collected a profit for the day of $1363 after commissions on our investment of $2040, or 67%.

 

Straddle buyers like volatility as much as we don’t like it in our other portfolios.   There are many ways to profit with options. It is best to remain flexible, and use the option strategy that best matches current market conditions. Buying straddles or strangles when option prices are low and volatility is high is one very good way to make extraordinary gains, as we happily did last week.

 

The downside to buying straddles or strangles is that if the market doesn’t fluctuate much, you could lose every penny of your investment (although if you don’t wait too much longer than mid-day on the day options expire, even out-of-the-money options retain some value and should be able to be sold for something).  This makes it a much riskier investment than the other option strategies we recommend at Terry’s Tips.  However, straddle- or strangle-buying can be quite profitable if the current market patterns persist.

 

A personal thought – I think that expectations are so low for Friday’s jobs report (and May’s report was so disappointing), that there is a good chance that the market will surge on Friday.  Instead of buying a straddle or strangle, I plan to spend a very small amount of money buying an out-of-the-money Jul1-12 Weekly call (maybe paying $10 or less per option) just in case the stock skyrockets.  It is my lottery ticket purchase for the week, a reward to myself for having had such a good week (I have been quite long AAPL).  Chances are, I will lose the entire investment, just as the chances are hopelessly against you when you buy a lottery ticket.  At least my odds are better than being hit by lightning (the lottery ticket odds).

This week I would like to share a report I sent to paying subscribers this week.  It is a back test of a portfolio we set up just a month ago to carry out the precise strategy outlined in my book, Making 36%: Duffer’s Guide to Breaking Par in the Market Every Year in Good Years and Bad (the revised 2012 edition is the 5th printing).  I believe it gives a definitive answer to the question “Do calendar spreads really work?”

Back-Testing the 10K Classic Options Strategy

The originally-stated goal of the 10K Classic portfolio was to deliver consistent 3% monthly gains and never have a losing month.  This portfolio uses S&P 500 tracking stock (SPY) as the underlying, and uses true deep in-the-money LEAPS as the long side (a full 19 months out to start) and Weekly short calls at several strikes both above the stock price (usually 2 out of 5 to start the week) and below the stock price (usually 3 out of 5 to start the week).  We generally do not make any adjustment trades until Thursday when some calls might be rolled to the next Weekly series at a different strike to make the portfolio more neutral net delta.

I wanted to see what would happen if we made absolutely no adjustments to the 10K Classic during the week based on the risk profile graph of the $9800 portfolio on June 15, 2012 and the weekly price changes for SPY that had taken place over the past 100 weeks.  Here are the results:

This table groups the weekly price changes in dollars into 19 groups and multiplies the number of occurrences in each group by the loss or gain that would have occurred with that price change according to the risk profile graph displayed with the thinkorswim software.  I reduced the indicated gain or loss by $50 each week to account for commission costs and transaction costs (we typically buy back out-of-the-money expiring calls for $3 or so, or pay a small premium when rolling over in-the-money calls).  Of course, VIX was relatively high on this date (about 22), so the gains might be less if VIX were appreciably lower.

In 76% of the weeks, a gain would have been made and in 24% of the weeks, a loss would have resulted. In the gaining weeks, the average gain was $284 and the in the losing weeks, the average loss was $445.   On an average of once a year (1 week out of each 50), a greater-than-15% loss would have occurred if no adjustments were made.

The bottom line is most encouraging.  It says that the portfolio would earn 100% over two years if those positions were in place and no adjustments were made during the week.  In order to carry out a strategy of making no adjustments, however, we would have to be willing to tolerate a weekly loss of about $1400 once every year.  

Since about two weeks a year, very large weekly losses might occur (averaging about $1000), it seems best to slightly alter our goal of never having a losing month.  When we encounter one of these weeks, the other 3 weeks of the month might not always do well enough to cover that large a loss.  Our new goal will to never have a losing month as long as the stock does not fluctuate more than $7 in one week during the month.  The more important 3%-a-month goal will continue to be in place. 

The first month for the portfolio (up 5.1%) is certainly an encouraging start, especially with the volatility that we experienced during that time period. 

The originally-stated goal of the 10K Classic portfolio was to deliver consistent 3% monthly gains and never have a losing month.  This portfolio uses S&P 500 tracking stock (SPY) as the underlying, and uses true deep in-the-money LEAPS as the long side (a full 19 months out to start) and Weekly short calls at several strikes both above the stock price (usually 2 out of 5 to start the week) and below the stock price (usually 3 out of 5 to start the week).  We generally do not make any adjustment trades until Thursday when some calls might be rolled to the next Weekly series at a different strike to make the portfolio more neutral net delta.

I wanted to see what would happen if we made absolutely no adjustments to the 10K Classic during the week based on the risk profile graph of the $9800 portfolio on June 15, 2012 and the weekly price changes for SPY that had taken place over the past 100 weeks.  Here are the results:

This table groups the weekly price changes in dollars into 19 groups and multiplies the number of occurrences in each group by the loss or gain that would have occurred with that price change according to the risk profile graph displayed with the thinkorswim software.  I reduced the indicated gain or loss by $50 each week to account for commission costs and transaction costs (we typically buy back out-of-the-money expiring calls for $3 or so, or pay a small premium when rolling over in-the-money calls).  Of course, VIX was relatively high on this date (about 22), so the gains might be less if VIX were appreciably lower.

In 76% of the weeks, a gain would have been made and in 24% of the weeks, a loss would have resulted. In the gaining weeks, the average gain was $284 and the in the losing weeks, the average loss was $445.   On an average of once a year (1 week out of each 50), a greater-than-15% loss would have occurred if no adjustments were made.

The bottom line is most encouraging.  It says that the portfolio would earn 100% over two years if those positions were in place and no adjustments were made during the week.  In order to carry out a strategy of making no adjustments, however, we would have to be willing to tolerate a weekly loss of about $1400 once every year.  

Since about two weeks a year, very large weekly losses might occur (averaging about $1000), it seems best to slightly alter our goal of never having a losing month.  When we encounter one of these weeks, the other 3 weeks of the month might not always do well enough to cover that large a loss.  Our new goal will to never have a losing month as long as the stock does not fluctuate more than $7 in one week during the month.  The more important 3%-a-month goal will continue to be in place. 

The first month for the portfolio (up 5.1%) is certainly an encouraging start, especially with the volatility that we experienced during that time period.

This week I would like to share some humorous market definitions.

In case you missed it last week, we are keeping open our offer of the 2012 ebook version of Making 36% for only $2.99. This is your chance to learn everything you need to know about options (ok, maybe almost everything) for a lower price than ever before.  Order here and use the code [this code is no longer valid].  The order form will say that you will receive the 2011 paperback edition but if you use the [this code is no longer valid] code, you will receive the 2012 ebook instead. (The revised 2012 paperback edition will be available next week if you would prefer to wait and get the hard copy at the regular price).

Even if you have purchased an earlier edition of my book, you might want to see the new version.  Two new important strategies are spelled out for the first time – the 10K STUDD (Short Term Ultra Double Diagonal) and the Calendar Twist (a new approach to placing calendar spreads).  Either strategy might change everything you ever thought about trading options.

If the market knocks you down, try laughing instead of crying–

Some Market Definitions:

CEO –Chief Embezzlement Officer.

CFO– Corporate Fraud Officer.

BULL MARKET — A random market movement causing an investor to mistake himself for a financial genius.

BEAR MARKET — A 6 to 18 month period when the kids get no allowance, the wife gets no jewellery, and the husband gets no sex.

VALUE INVESTING — The art of buying low and selling lower.

P/E RATIO — The percentage of investors wetting their pants as the market keeps crashing.

STANDARD & POOR — Your life in a nutshell.

STOCK ANALYST — Idiot who just downgraded your stock.

STOCK SPLIT — When your ex-wife and her lawyer split your assets equally between themselves.

FINANCIAL PLANNER — A guy whose phone has been disconnected.

MARKET CORRECTION — The day after you buy stocks.

OUT OF THE MONEY —   When your checking account’s overdraft hits bottom.
CASH FLOW– The movement your money makes as it disappears down the toilet.

YAHOO — What you yell after selling it to some poor sucker for $240 per share.

WINDOWS — What you jump out of when you’re the sucker who bought Yahoo @ $240 per share.

INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR — Past year investor who’s now locked up in a nuthouse.

PROFIT — An archaic word no longer in use.

June options expiration is behind us and it ended in the bulls favor. The S&P 500 just came off the best week of 2012, only to have another rally this past week of 1.3%. But, that does not mean we can rest on our laurels because now we have what could be the biggest event of the summer upon us – the Greek elections.

European leaders have basically pleaded with Greece to reject the leftist SYRIZA party as the party promises to reject what would certainly be punishing terms from the 130 billion euro bailout offered by the EU.

The bailout will not be renegotiated, warned German Chancellor Angela Merkel, whose country’s wealth is vital to shoring up its weaker partners in the bloc.

But many in Greece and beyond state that Greece’s lenders are bluffing when they threaten to turn off the funds if Athens reneges on the terms of the bailout – tax hikes, job losses and pay cuts that have helped condemn the country to five years of record-breaking recession.

So, the question is how will the outcome on Sunday affect the U.S. markets? The answer is easy….no one knows.

The only certainty is the gap from 6/6 in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) has yet to close. A move back to $129.36 would close the gap.

Moreover, the DOW just pushed above its 50-day moving average. A continuation of that trend has proven positive over the next 6 months, but a failure as seen by an almost immediate push back below the 50-day has been rather volatile for the market.

According to Jason Goepfert of Sentimentrader.com, “when the Dow was lower after it rose above its 50- day moving average, then the next six months were positive 55% of the time”. But the swings ranged from up 22.7% to lower -15.8%. I think we could see much of the same as we enter the summer doldrums. Low- volume allows for widely vacillating markets and that is exactly what we tend to see during the months of July, August and part of September.

As for the short-term direction of the market, most of the major indices are nearing a short-term overbought state. This means that a pullback (1-3 days) is anticipated. Furthermore, the day following options expiration, particularly a triple witching event is historically bearish. However, with the Greece election Sunday I think all of the historical precedents should be tossed aside.

If we do see a push higher at the open Monday I would not be surprised to see an immediate sell-off. Remember, things aren’t so great in the U.S. economy right now. I am amazed how the poor jobs report reported only a few weeks ago has been forgotten.

The best thing you can do right now, stay nimble. Expect volatility and don’t be surprised by a nice “summer doldrums” sell-off.

I am pleased to offer the 2012 ebook version of Making 36% for only $2.99. This is your chance to learn everything you need to know about options (ok, maybe almost everything) for a lower price than ever before.  Order here and use the code [this code is no longer valid].  The order form will say that you will receive the 2011 paperback edition but if you use the [this code is no longer valid] code, you will receive the 2012 ebook instead. (The revised 2012 paperback edition will be available in about two weeks if you would prefer to wait and get the hard copy at the regular price).

Even if you have purchased an earlier edition of my book, you might want to see the new version.  Two new important strategies are spelled out for the first time – the 10K STUDD (Short Term Ultra Double Diagonal) and the Calendar Twist (a new approach to placing calendar spreads).  Either strategy might change everything you ever thought about trading options.

How to Make a Portfolio of Calendar Spreads Either Bearish or Bullish:

At Terry’s Tips, we use an options strategy that consists of owning calendar (or diagonal) spreads at many different strike prices, both above and below the stock price.  Six of the eight actual portfolios we carry out use SPY as the underlying so we are betting on the market as a whole rather than any individual stock.

We typically start out each week or month with a slightly bullish posture since the market has historically moved higher more times than it has fallen.  In option terms, this is called being positive net delta.  Starting in May and extending through August, we usually start out with a slightly bearish posture (negative net delta) in deference to the “sell in May” adage.

Any calendar spread makes its maximum gain if the stock ends up on expiration day exactly at the strike price of the calendar spread.  As the market moves either up or down, adding new spreads at different strikes is essentially placing a new bet at the new strike price.  In other words, you hope the market will move toward that strike.

If the market moves higher, we add new calendar spreads at a strike which is higher than the stock price (and vice versa if the market moves lower).  New spreads at strikes higher than the stock price are bullish bets and new spreads at strikes below the stock price are bearish bets.

If the market moves higher when we are positive net delta, we should make gains because of our positive delta condition (in addition to decay gains that should take place regardless of what the market does).  If the market moves lower when we are positive net delta, we would lose portfolio value because of the bullish delta condition, but some or all of these losses would be offset by the daily gains we enjoy from theta (the net daily decay of all the options).

Another variable affects calendar spread portfolio values.  Option prices (VIX) may rise or fall in general.  VIX typically falls with a rising market and moves higher when the market tanks.  While not as important as the net delta value, lower VIX levels tend to depress calendar spread portfolio values (and rising VIX levels tend to improve calendar spread portfolio values).

Once again, trading options is more complicated than trading stock, but can be considerably more interesting, challenging, and ultimately profitable than the simple purchase of stock or mutual funds.

Last week was a bad one for the market.  Friday’s 2.5% drop was the worst day in all of 2012.  Many Terry’s Tips subscribers did just fine because of our 10K Bear portfolio which gained 23.4% for the week.  Over the past five weeks while the market has fallen 8.7%, this bearish options portfolio has gained a whopping 135%.  Once again, options offer opportunities that conventional investments just can’t deliver.

Today I would like to talk about an important options measure called VIX.

Option Prices and VIX

VIX is a measure of the average Implied Volatility of SPY, the tracking stock of the S&P 500.  It is often referred to as the “fear index.”  When investors get scared, they often buy put options and/or sell call options to protect themselves against a big market drop.  When this happens, VIX (and option prices in general) usually moves higher.

VIX almost always moves in the opposite direction of the market.  If the market moves higher, VIX usually moves lower, and vice versa.

On Friday, VIX closed at 26.66, driven higher by the big drop in stock values.  VIX is essentially the percentage change that the market is expected to fluctuate in a year.  The mean average of VIX is about 20, far less than it is today.  Quite often, when there is a sideways market with little volatility, VIX hangs out as low as 16.

Today’s high VIX number means that option prices are high.  It is the perfect situation for our strategy of selling short-term premium.  We love a high VIX.

When VIX moves higher, not only is it possible to collect more premium decay each week or month, but the entire portfolio made up of calendar spreads is likely to move higher as well.  This occurs because the long side of our calendar spreads (the options with more remaining life and therefore the ones with a higher absolute value) increase in value by more than the short-term options that we are short. 

If an option trading at $6.00 goes up 10%, the option will be worth $.60 more, while a short option covered by that longer-term $6.00 option might be trading at $.90, and it might only go up by $.09.  If you had 10 of those spreads in place, your portfolio would increase in value by $510 just because of the higher option prices that result when VIX moves higher.

Trading options is far more complicated than most investments.  If you are just buying stock or mutual funds, you don’t even have to know about VIX.  But we believe that there is a big payoff for making a little effort to learn about the extraordinary possible returns that an options portfolio can deliver if it is properly constructed.

For the second straight week, six of the eight portfolios carried out at Terry’s Tips gained last week, and the average of all eight portfolios was a whopping 16% gain.  Each week, after commissions.  Where else other than options can you enjoy returns like this?

Today I would like to discuss one of my favorite option spreads if you like a particular stock.  I like Apple, and have recently placed the spread discussed today in my personal account.

Using a Vertical Call Spread to Bet on Apple

I think there are about a dozen reasons why Apple (AAPL) will be trading at a higher price next January than it is right now.  First of all, in spite of growing at about 80% a year, it sells at a lower p/e ratio than the average company in the S&P 500.  Second, the company’s last earnings exceeded analyst expectations by a wide margin (year-to-year growth of about 90%) yet the company is trading at a lower price than before the announcement.  Fundamentally, the stock is clearly undervalued. But the real story is in what is likely to happen over the next six months or so.  Look at this list of possibilities:

1)    A dividend will be made in July for the first time ever.  As soon as it is declared, many big mutual funds (whose charter does not allow them to buy companies which do not pay a dividend) will finally be able to buy shares (and they most certainly will).
2)    A pre-announced $10 billion stock buy-back will start in January.
3)    The iPhone 5 will be available before Christmas.  Many analysts believe that this will be the biggest new product introduction of any company in 2012.
4)    A revolutionary interactive iTelevision product is rumored to be coming, with an announcement possible as early as June (at the same technology conference where Steve Jobs often announced new products).
5)    The company is rumored to be offering a new way of paying for most everything with a mobile device (as is becoming the norm in Europe).  You will be able to pay tolls or get Coke from a vending machine with your cell phone. With an installed base of 200 million iPhones, they seem to be in an excellent position to become the PayPal of mobile devices (which may explain why they are sitting on much of their $100-billion cash hoard rather than distributing it to stockholders).  
6)    They apparently still can’t make iPhones in China fast enough to satisfy the demand, and the largest Chinese telephone company has not yet been allowed to offer the phone to its customers.

And the list goes on.  I think it is highly likely that AAPL will be selling for significantly more next January than it is right now.  So how do I use options to bet on a higher stock price?

I generally do not like to buy calls, or puts, when I believe the market or a particular stock is headed in a certain direction.  Buying an option is putting your money on a depreciating asset.  If the underlying doesn’t move the way you want it to, your investment goes down in value every day.

Rather than buying a call on a stock that you believe is headed higher, you might consider buying a vertical spread.  A vertical spread is simply the purchase of an option and simultaneous sale of another option at different strike prices in the same expiration month (same underlying security, of course).  A vertical spread is a known as a directional spread because it makes or loses money depending on which direction the underlying security takes.

Here is what I did with AAPL.  I bought the January 2013 530 calls and sold the January 2013 580 calls for $25 ($2500 per spread) last week when the stock was trading about $562 (Friday’s close).  If AAPL is trading above $580 in January as I expect it will, this spread will be worth $50, and I will double my money in about seven months.

The downside of buying a vertical spread is that if you are right and the underlying moves in the direction you had hoped, your gain will be limited by the strike prices of your long and short positions.  No matter how high AAPL goes by next January, this spread will never be worth more than $50.

However, the neat thing about vertical spreads is that if the stock doesn’t move at all, you might just make a gain.  With this spread, if the stock is trading exactly where it is today ($562), my investment will be worth $3200, or $700 more than I paid for it, making about 28%, and the stock hasn’t gone up a penny.

Most people would be delighted if they made 28% on their money in a year.  Here is an opportunity to make that much in seven months even if you are wrong (for betting that it will move higher).

Vertical spreads are just another reason why I love options.

Bottom line, buying a vertical spread lowers your potential loss and also lowers the potential gain.  In most instances, I prefer buying a vertical spread to the outright purchase of puts or calls.  In the above example, I would gladly trade the benefit of making 28% if I am wrong and the underlying didn’t change in value with the limited gain I could make if I were right (I’m not a greedy guy – I will be happy with a 100% gain for seven months). 

Of course, if I am totally wrong and the stock moves dramatically lower, I could lose my entire investment.  Just like I could do if I bought any stock or option.  You have to be willing to take a little risk to make a big reward.  I am comfortable enough with Apple’s prospects to take this risk (in fact, I own vertical spreads on AAPL at many other strike prices and expiration months as well).