from the desk of Dr. Terry F Allen

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Order Up a Starbucks Spread

Starbucks (SBUX) posted a solid earnings report on Tuesday, easily beating both top- and bottom-line expectations. Year-over-year sales and earnings comparisons were ridiculously high, as SBUX was one of the hardest-hit businesses during the depths of last year’s pandemic-rocked economy. But the company grew sales from two years ago and blew out analyst estimates. To top it off, SBUX raised sales and earnings guidance for FY21.

The market did not react well to the report, however, as the stock fell 3.6% through the end of the week. This could be due to the company reporting increased wage and inflation pressure. But analysts were undeterred. While there were no upgrades, price targets were raised across the board, with some reaching as high as $145 (the stock closed at $121.43 on Friday). The average price target is above $128.

On the charts, the stock’s drop pulled it down to its rising 20-day moving average. This trendline supported a pullback in mid-July and has not allowed a daily close below it in more than a month. Note that the short put of our credit spread trade is right at the 20-day.

If you agree that SBUX will stay above its 20-day moving average (blue line in chart), consider the following trade that relies on the stock remaining above 120 (red line in chart) through expiration in seven weeks.

Buy to Open SBUX 17Sep 115 put (SBUX210917P115)
Sell to Open SBUX 17Sep 120 put (SBUX210917120) for a credit of $1.60 (selling a vertical)

This credit is $0.02 less than the mid-point of the option spread when SBUX was trading at $121.43. Unless the stock rallies quickly from here, you should be able to get close to this amount.

Your commission on this trade will be only $1.30 per spread.  Each spread would then yield $158.70. This trade reduces your buying power by $500 and makes your net investment $341.30 ($500 – $158.70).  If SBUX closes above $120 on September 17, both options will expire worthless and your return on the spread would be 46% ($158.70 / $341.30).

Making 36%

Making 36% — A Duffer's Guide to Breaking Par in the Market Every Year in Good Years and Bad

This book may not improve your golf game, but it might change your financial situation so that you will have more time for the greens and fairways (and sometimes the woods).

Learn why Dr. Allen believes that the 10K Strategy is less risky than owning stocks or mutual funds, and why it is especially appropriate for your IRA.

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Success Stories

I have been trading the equity markets with many different strategies for over 40 years. Terry Allen's strategies have been the most consistent money makers for me. I used them during the 2008 melt-down, to earn over 50% annualized return, while all my neighbors were crying about their losses.

~ John Collins