The Terry's Tips Track Record

 

Track Record for 2019  

At the beginning 2019, our long-term outlook was cloudy due to concerns over trade wars, fighting the Fed, an unpredictable president, and the upcoming Mueller Report.  We elected not to make the long-term bullish vertical put credit spreads on selected Blue-Chip companies that had been so successful in 2017 but not so good in 2018, (especially in the last quarter).

2019 Performance Update After First 11 Months

We have 4 Portfolios which use our capstone 10K Strategy.  This is the strategy that we implemented 18 years ago and have been tweaking and improving ever since.

Two portfolios use the 10K Strategy on Costco (COST) options.  The first one trades weekly options on the short side.  It has gained 53.1% so far. A second portfolio based on COST was started on September 23, 2019 and uses true LEAPS for the long side and monthly options for the short side.  In its first two months in operation, it has gained 27% which works out to over 100% for a year annualized.

Our third 10K Strategy portfolio is based on the market itself, the S&P 500 tracking stock, SPY.  It started out 2019 with $10,000 and was worth $18,662, or 86.6% at the end of November.

Our 4^th 10K Strategy portfolio uses Microsoft (MSFT) as the underlying and sells weekly options.  It has gained 110.5% so far in 2019.

After years of back-testing  and experimenting with a variety of ways to capitalize on the high option prices that exist in the week when earnings announcements are scheduled, we gave up on trying to predict which way the stock might move after the announcement.  Instead, we created a strategy that is based on the magnitude of the move after earnings, regardless of whether it was up or down.  Although we don’t want to pretend that we can keep up this record forever, the first two months have been encouraging.  Over this time, the portfolio has gained 147.7%, with successful plays on COST, MSFT, EA, HUM. LOW, NFLX, NVDA, WMT and UAL. 

 

 

Track Record for 2018   

The success of the 10K Strategy is dependent on selecting underlying stocks or ETPs that stay flat or move higher.  The year 2018 was the only year in the past 10 years when the market fell during the calendar year.  This was especially true in the last quarter when prices fell across the board.  Our 10K Strategy portfolios all lost money in 2018, a dramatic difference from 2017 when the composite average portfolio gained over 113%.  Our worst 2018 performer was based on Facebook (FB). FB fell from a high of over $218 to end at $135, a drop of 38%.  Our portfolio lost over 90%, a huge reversal from the 700%+ gain that it had enjoyed in 2017 (see below).  

 

The Terry's Tips 2017 Track Record Final Results 

The year has ended, and it is time to record the results for 2017. The composite average of our 10 portfolios gained 113% for 2017, just about the best year we have enjoyed in our 16 years of publishing Terry’s Tips. Only one portfolio (Honey Badger) lost money (and it covered the entire loss for the year in the first week of 2018).

• Boomer’s Revenge – (restarted with $5000 on 1/22/18 after withdrawal of $2797) – 56% gain for 2017 

• Capstone Cascade – (restarted with $10,000 on 1/2/18 after withdrawal of $4836) – 48% gain for 2017 

• Contango (our only portfolio not available for Auto-Trade – restarted with $5000 on 1/2/18) – 138% gain for 2017 

• Earnings Eagle (started with $5000 on 6/7/17) – 31% gain over last 6 months of 2017 

• Galloping Turtle (restarted with $5000 using new strategy on 11/20/17 after withdrawal of $3960) –   79% gain for 2017 

• Honey Badger (restarted with $5000 using a new strategy on 12/26/17) – 48% loss for 2017 (fully recovered in the first week of 2018)

• Leaping Leopard (restarted on 12/26/17 with $5000 after withdrawal of $2001) – 40% gain for 2017 

• Rising Tide (restarted on 1/2/18 with $5000 after withdrawal of $7615) – 152% gain for 2017 

• Vista Valley (restarted in 2018 after VXX reverse split is carried out with $5000 after withdrawal of $5058) – 101% gain for 2017 

• Wiley Wolf (restarted on 11/8/17 with $5000 after $19,840 withdrawal) – 728% gain for 2017

Each of the above portfolios is carried in a separate brokerage account and include all commissions. We currently carry out 9 portfolios at Terry’s Tips, 8 of which are available for Auto-Trade at thinkorswim (so you can follow a portfolio and never have to make a trade on your own).    All except one of these portfolios can be carried out inside an IRA.   Paying subscribers can follow the results of all 9 portfolios. Some newsletters only reveal their winning portfolios to all subscribers, but at Terry's Tips, we disclose every trade and every position for every portfolio at all times.  

All results include commissions at the standard rate charged by thinkorswim for Terry's Tips subscribers.  Many newsletters conveniently (for them) do not include commissions when they report their trading results.  By the way, our subscription rates are considerably less than just about any other options newsletter.

While we can’t promise that future years will be anywhere near as profitable as 2017 has been for us, we do believe that the basic strategies that we have developed can consistently deliver far greater returns than any conventional investments that we know of.

 

The Long-Term Track Record at Terry's Tips 

  

Terry’s Tips has operated sample option portfolios since 2003 for their subscribers to follow or mirror in their own accounts. These portfolios are actual portfolios, and results include all commissions that an investor would pay at thinkorswim, Inc. by TD Ameritrade. Many option newsletters conveniently (for them) do not include commissions in their performance numbers. This makes their results look a lot better than they actually are because commissions are a significant cost of trading options (unlike stock trading which involves much lower commissions).

 

In most of these years, the option portfolios have beaten the market averages by a very large margin. In some years, the portfolios have incurred losses similar to the magnitude of the market losses.

 

Option trading involves leverage, and leverage works in both directions. Gains (and losses) are often greater than changes in the market. However, we have tried to minimize the losses in down years so that our losses are less than those of the markets in general, and to enjoy greater gains than the markets in good years. Most of the time, we have been successful in carrying out these goals.