The Terry's Tips Track Record

Track Record for the First Half of 2019

At the beginning 2019, our long-term outlook was cloudy due to concerns over trade wars, fighting the Fed, an unpredictable president, and the upcoming Mueller Report.  We elected not to make the long-term bullish vertical put credit spreads on selected Blue-Chip companies that had been so successful in 2017 but not so good in 2018, (especially in the last quarter).

Our 10K Strategy portfolios performed very well in the first half of 2019.    Our portfolio based on SPY (Boomers Revenge) did not get started until February 11, and it has gained 27.2% in less than 5 months.  Annualized, that works out to a 65% gain.   Our other 10K Strategy portfolios also performed much better than the market as a whole.  Rising Tide started the year out using IWM as the underlying, but it was far more volatile than the options could handle, and we had incurred a 27% loss in April when we switched to using Costco (COST) as the underlying.  By the end of June, the portfolio had gained 57.7%, or 115% annualized. Wiley Wolf used Microsoft (MSFT) as the underlying, and gained 30.8% in the first six months, or 61% annualized. Bottom line, the 10K Strategy has looked pretty solid in spite of some higher-than-average volatility as fears of trade wars, interest rate increases, and world growth rates have whipsawed markets during many weeks.

Track Record for 2018  

The success of the 10K Strategy is dependent on selecting underlying stocks or ETPs that stay flat or move higher.  The year 2018 was the only year in the past 10 years when the market fell during the calendar year.  This was especially true in the last quarter when prices fell across the board.  Our 10K Strategy portfolios all lost money in 2018, a dramatic difference from 2017 when the composite average portfolio gained over 113%.  Our worst 2018 performer was based on Facebook (FB). FB fell from a high of over $218 to end at $135, a drop of 38%.  Our portfolio lost over 90%, a huge reversal from the 700%+ gain that it had enjoyed in 2017 (see below).  

The Terry's Tips 2017 Track Record Final Results

The year has ended, and it is time to record the results for 2017. The composite average of our 10 portfolios gained 113% for 2017, just about the best year we have enjoyed in our 16 years of publishing Terry’s Tips. Only one portfolio (Honey Badger) lost money (and it covered the entire loss for the year in the first week of 2018).

• Boomer’s Revenge – (restarted with $5000 on 1/22/18 after withdrawal of $2797) – 56% gain for 2017 

• Capstone Cascade – (restarted with $10,000 on 1/2/18 after withdrawal of $4836) – 48% gain for 2017 

• Contango (our only portfolio not available for Auto-Trade – restarted with $5000 on 1/2/18) – 138% gain for 2017 

• Earnings Eagle (started with $5000 on 6/7/17) – 31% gain over last 6 months of 2017 

• Galloping Turtle (restarted with $5000 using new strategy on 11/20/17 after withdrawal of $3960) –   79% gain for 2017 

• Honey Badger (restarted with $5000 using a new strategy on 12/26/17) – 48% loss for 2017 (fully recovered in the first week of 2018)

• Leaping Leopard (restarted on 12/26/17 with $5000 after withdrawal of $2001) – 40% gain for 2017 

• Rising Tide (restarted on 1/2/18 with $5000 after withdrawal of $7615) – 152% gain for 2017 

• Vista Valley (restarted in 2018 after VXX reverse split is carried out with $5000 after withdrawal of $5058) – 101% gain for 2017 

• Wiley Wolf (restarted on 11/8/17 with $5000 after $19,840 withdrawal) – 728% gain for 2017

Each of the above portfolios is carried in a separate brokerage account and include all commissions. We currently carry out 9 portfolios at Terry’s Tips, 8 of which are available for Auto-Trade at thinkorswim (so you can follow a portfolio and never have to make a trade on your own).    All except one of these portfolios can be carried out inside an IRA.   Paying subscribers can follow the results of all 9 portfolios. Some newsletters only reveal their winning portfolios to all subscribers, but at Terry's Tips, we disclose every trade and every position for every portfolio at all times.  

All results include commissions at the standard rate charged by thinkorswim for Terry's Tips subscribers.  Many newsletters conveniently (for them) do not include commissions when they report their trading results.  By the way, our subscription rates are considerably less than just about any other options newsletter.

Terry’s Tips has operated sample option portfolios since 2003 for their subscribers to follow or mirror in their own accounts. These portfolios are actual portfolios, and results include all commissions that an investor would pay at thinkorswim, Inc. by TD Ameritrade. Many option newsletters conveniently (for them) do not include commissions in their performance numbers. This makes their results look a lot better than they actually are because commissions are a significant cost of trading options (unlike stock trading which involves much lower commissions).

In most of these years, the option portfolios have beaten the market averages by a very large margin. In some years, the portfolios have incurred losses similar to the magnitude of the market losses.

Option trading involves leverage, and leverage works in both directions. Gains (and losses) are often greater than changes in the market. However, we have tried to minimize the losses in down years so that our losses are less than those of the markets in general, and to enjoy greater gains than the markets in good years. Most of the time, we have been successful in carrying out these goals.