from the desk of Dr. Terry F Allen

Skip navigation

Member Login  |  Contact Us  |  Sign Up

802-877-8330

The Terry's Tips Track Record

Track Record for 2020 

We carried out our 10K Strategy with 5 portfolios in 2020, each trading options on a separate underlying stock.  During the year, we dropped one of the portfolios when the underling became too volatile for the options prices to handle, and we suffered a 50% loss on that portfolio.  

The other 4 10K Strategy portfolios prospered, however, and chalked up an average gain of 122% for all 5 portfolios.  This record meant that in 3 of the past 4 years, our 10K Strategy portfolios have enjoyed average annual gains of over 100%.

At the end of 2020, three portfolios - Wiley Wolf (MSFT), Rising Tide (COST), and Earnings Eagle (TGT) – all more than tripled in value, led by the Wolf’s quadruple (this portfolio started out 2020 with $10,000 and ended up the year with $40,934 (after paying all commissions). We started out 2021 with these same underlying stocks, and added QQQ for the 4th 10K Strategy portfolio. Each portfolio started out with 2021 with $10,000.


Track Record for 2019  

Our results for 2019 were extraordinary.  It was a good year for the market in general.  The S&P 500 (SPY) gained about 29%.  Just about any equity investment probably made money.  However, the average gain for our 10K Strategy portfolios was almost 104%, or well more than 3 times as great as the market as a whole.  Our portfolio based on an algorithm that plays earnings announcements gained over 112% annualized.  This strategy is based on the magnitude of the post-earnings stock price move rather than trying to predict the direction the stock will move after the announcement.

View Results

Our only losing portfolio was our failed experiment with a strategy that bet that stock prices would fall less than expected on the day a dividend was paid.  Most of the time that was the case, but a few huge losses crushed the many winning trades which had lower gains. Fortunately, this portfolio was our smallest one.  We had only committed $3000 to it.  Obviously, we will not be continuing that strategy in 2020.

Looking ahead, we will have 5 10K Strategy portfolios in 2020 (adding a new one called Vista Valley which will trade Visa (V) options). We will also continue Earnings Eagle with a starting value of $10,000.  We will also have a $2000 portfolio which will sell extremely short-term well out-of-the-money vertical credit spreads on SPY.  Each of these spreads are designed to have at least an 85% chance of being successful.

 

Track Record for 2018   

The success of the 10K Strategy is dependent on selecting underlying stocks or ETPs that stay flat or move higher.  The year 2018 was the only year in the past 10 years when the market fell during the calendar year.  This was especially true in the last quarter when prices fell across the board.  Our 10K Strategy portfolios all lost money in 2018, a dramatic difference from 2017 when the composite average portfolio gained over 113%.  Our worst 2018 performer was based on Facebook (FB). FB fell from a high of over $218 to end at $135, a drop of 38%.  Our portfolio lost over 90%, a huge reversal from the 700%+ gain that it had enjoyed in 2017 (see below).  

 

The Terry's Tips 2017 Track Record Final Results 

The year has ended, and it is time to record the results for 2017. The composite average of our 10 portfolios gained 113% for 2017, just about the best year we have enjoyed in our 16 years of publishing Terry’s Tips. Only one portfolio (Honey Badger) lost money (and it covered the entire loss for the year in the first week of 2018).

• Boomer’s Revenge – (restarted with $5000 on 1/22/18 after withdrawal of $2797) – 56% gain for 2017 

• Capstone Cascade – (restarted with $10,000 on 1/2/18 after withdrawal of $4836) – 48% gain for 2017 

• Contango (our only portfolio not available for Auto-Trade – restarted with $5000 on 1/2/18) – 138% gain for 2017 

• Earnings Eagle (started with $5000 on 6/7/17) – 31% gain over last 6 months of 2017 

• Galloping Turtle (restarted with $5000 using new strategy on 11/20/17 after withdrawal of $3960) –   79% gain for 2017 

• Honey Badger (restarted with $5000 using a new strategy on 12/26/17) – 48% loss for 2017 (fully recovered in the first week of 2018)

• Leaping Leopard (restarted on 12/26/17 with $5000 after withdrawal of $2001) – 40% gain for 2017 

• Rising Tide (restarted on 1/2/18 with $5000 after withdrawal of $7615) – 152% gain for 2017 

• Vista Valley (restarted in 2018 after VXX reverse split is carried out with $5000 after withdrawal of $5058) – 101% gain for 2017 

• Wiley Wolf (restarted on 11/8/17 with $5000 after $19,840 withdrawal) – 728% gain for 2017

Each of the above portfolios is carried in a separate brokerage account and include all commissions. We currently carry out 9 portfolios at Terry’s Tips, 8 of which are available for Auto-Trade at thinkorswim (so you can follow a portfolio and never have to make a trade on your own).    All except one of these portfolios can be carried out inside an IRA.   Paying subscribers can follow the results of all 9 portfolios. Some newsletters only reveal their winning portfolios to all subscribers, but at Terry's Tips, we disclose every trade and every position for every portfolio at all times.  

All results include commissions at the standard rate charged by thinkorswim for Terry's Tips subscribers.  Many newsletters conveniently (for them) do not include commissions when they report their trading results.  By the way, our subscription rates are considerably less than just about any other options newsletter.

While we can’t promise that future years will be anywhere near as profitable as 2017 has been for us, we do believe that the basic strategies that we have developed can consistently deliver far greater returns than any conventional investments that we know of.



 

The Long-Term Track Record at Terry's Tips 


 

Terry’s Tips has operated sample option portfolios since 2003 for their subscribers to follow or mirror in their own accounts. These portfolios are actual portfolios, and results include all commissions that an investor would pay at thinkorswim, Inc. by TD Ameritrade. Many option newsletters conveniently (for them) do not include commissions in their performance numbers. This makes their results look a lot better than they actually are because commissions are a significant cost of trading options (unlike stock trading which involves much lower commissions).

 

In most of these years, the option portfolios have beaten the market averages by a very large margin. In some years, the portfolios have incurred losses similar to the magnitude of the market losses.

 

Option trading involves leverage, and leverage works in both directions. Gains (and losses) are often greater than changes in the market. However, we have tried to minimize the losses in down years so that our losses are less than those of the markets in general, and to enjoy greater gains than the markets in good years. Most of the time, we have been successful in carrying out these goals.

Terry's Tips Stock Options Trading Blog

May 10, 2021

Make a Friend out of PayPal (PYPL)


On
Wednesday, PYPL blew past earnings estimates, as profits jumped 84% from a year
earlier. The EPS of $1.22 easily beat the consensus analyst estimate of $1.02.
Revenue was up 29%, also beating expectations. For good measure, the company
upped its guidance for 2021. The news was greeted by several target price
updates. The average price target is now above $317, which is 25% above
Friday’s close.





Although
the stock is up about 2% since earnings, it hasn’t blown anyone’s hair back so
far in 2021, as the shares are up only 8%. In fact, they’ve been flat for 3-1/2
months. But a longer-term view shows the stock’s monster uptrend since the
March 2020 bottom – it’s more than tripled – is alive and well. The rising
20-week moving average has guided the rally nearly perfectly, allowing just
three weekly closes below it during the past year. This trendline is sitting
near 255, so we’re looking at a put credit spread with the short put sitting
below the 20-week.





If
you agree that PYPL will stay above its 20-week moving average, consider the
following trade that relies on the stock remaining above $250 through
expiration in six weeks.





Buy
to Open PYPL 18Jun21 240 Put (PYPL210618P240)

Sell to Open PYPL
18Jun21 250 Put (PYPL210618P250) for a credit of $3.60 (selling a vertical)





This
credit is $0.05 less than the mid-point
of the option spread when PYPL was trading at $253. Unless the stock rallies
quickly from here, you should be able to get close to this amount.





Your
commission on this trade will be only $1.30 per spread.  Each spread would then yield $358.70. This
trade reduces your buying power by $1,000 and makes your net investment $641.30
($1000 – $358.70).  If PYPL closes above
$250 on June 18, both options will expire worthless
and your return on the spread would be 56% ($358.70 / $641.30).


May 3, 2021

Caterpillar (CAT) Drops After an Earnings Beat … And It’s a Bullish Sign

On Thursday, CAT did something it’s done for the past three quarters – it easily topped earnings estimates. The company reported $2.87 in adjusted earnings versus the projected $1.95. Sales ($11.9 billion) also soared past estimates ($10.5 billion). The numbers were well received by Wall Street, as a couple of brokerages raised their target prices.

April 26, 2021

Danaher (DHR) Earnings Bring Record High

DHR – a medical diagnostics and research company - reported earnings Thursday morning that blew away estimates. Adjusted earnings came in at $2.52 per share compared with 81 cents a year earlier and the analyst estimate of $1.76. Revenue soared 58% from a year earlier

Making 36%

Making 36% – A Duffer's Guide to Breaking Par in the Market Every Year in Good Years and Bad

This book may not improve your golf game, but it might change your financial situation so that you will have more time for the greens and fairways (and sometimes the woods).

Learn why Dr. Allen believes that the 10K Strategy is less risky than owning stocks or mutual funds, and why it is especially appropriate for your IRA.

Order Now

Sign Up Your 2 Free Reports & Our Newsletter Now!

Sign up for Dr. Terry F Allen’s free newsletter and get immediate access to his most current report on his stock option trading strategies.

TD Ameritrade

This Chicago brokerage firm with the unlikely name thinkorswim, Inc. by TD Ameritrade is considered by many to be the best option-friendly broker. For openers, they have extremely good analytic software and their option trading platform is exceptional. Thinkorswim Mobile has been called the best mobile app in the industry. In 2017, TD Ameritrade received 4 stars out of 5 in the annual Barron`s* Best Online Brokers Survey. TD Ameritrade was tops as an online broker for long-term investors and for novices. The company is the only broker that receives the highest 5.0 score for research amenities among all firms participated in the ranking last year.

Member Login  |  Programs and Pricing  |  Testimonials  |  About Us  |  Terms and Conditions  |  Accessibility Statement  |  Privacy Policy  |  Site Map

TD Ameritrade, Inc. and Terry's Tips are separate, unaffiliated companies and are not responsible for each other’s services and products.

Options are not suitable for all investors as the special risks inherent to options trading my expose investors to potentially rapid and substantial losses. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options before investing in options

©Copyright 2001–2021 Terry's Tips, Inc. dba Terry's Tips
235 Primrose Lane, Ferrisburgh, VT 05456

Close Window

Sign up for the Terry’s Tips Free Newsletter and Receive 2 Options Strategy Reports:

or

Login to Your Existing Account Now

No Thanks

Newsletter Signup

Member Login

Enter your primary email below, and we'll send you a new password