The Terry's Tips Track Record

First Quarter 2020 Update: Market Down -22.9%, Terry’s Tips Actual Portfolio Composite Average Up 45.6% 

The first quarter of 2020 has mercifully ended.  It was one of the worst times for stock investors since the 2008 recession.  The market (SPY) fell 21.3%, exceeding the definition of a bear market.

This dismal record was a sharp contrast to how well the actual portfolios carried out at Terry’s Tips for subscribers performed.  Our composite average gained 34.7% for the quarter.  Two of our portfolios gained 100%, and we withdrew the entire starting amount so subscribers who followed our trades on their own or through Auto-Trade at thinkorswim could go forward with only their winnings at risk.  The Rising Tide portfolio started out the year with $8000 trading Costco (COST) options and when the portfolio had grown to about $16,000, we took out $8000.  Earnings Eagle started out the year with $10,000 trading options on Target (TGT), and when the total value exceeded $20,000, we withdrew $10,000, and at the end of the quarter, the portfolio was worth $12,851. Wiley Wolf started out the year with $10,000 trading options on Microsoft (MSFT), and at the end of the quarter, the portfolio was worth $16,470, up 64.7%.  We enjoyed these wonderful results while most buyers of stock were gnashing their teeth over their significant losses. Once again, properly carried out option strategies outperformed the stock market.   

 

Track Record for 2019  

Our results for 2019 were extraordinary.  It was a good year for the market in general.  The S&P 500 (SPY) gained about 29%.  Just about any equity investment probably made money.  However, the average gain for our 10K Strategy portfolios was almost 104%, or well more than 3 times as great as the market as a whole.  Our portfolio based on an algorithm that plays earnings announcements gained over 112% annualized.  This strategy is based on the magnitude of the post-earnings stock price move rather than trying to predict the direction the stock will move after the announcement.

View Results

 

Our only losing portfolio was our failed experiment with a strategy that bet that stock prices would fall less than expected on the day a dividend was paid.  Most of the time that was the case, but a few huge losses crushed the many winning trades which had lower gains. Fortunately, this portfolio was our smallest one.  We had only committed $3000 to it.  Obviously, we will not be continuing that strategy in 2020.

Looking ahead, we will have 5 10K Strategy portfolios in 2020 (adding a new one called Vista Valley which will trade Visa (V) options). We will also continue Earnings Eagle with a starting value of $10,000.  We will also have a $2000 portfolio which will sell extremely short-term well out-of-the-money vertical credit spreads on SPY.  Each of these spreads are designed to have at least an 85% chance of being successful.

 

Track Record for 2018   

The success of the 10K Strategy is dependent on selecting underlying stocks or ETPs that stay flat or move higher.  The year 2018 was the only year in the past 10 years when the market fell during the calendar year.  This was especially true in the last quarter when prices fell across the board.  Our 10K Strategy portfolios all lost money in 2018, a dramatic difference from 2017 when the composite average portfolio gained over 113%.  Our worst 2018 performer was based on Facebook (FB). FB fell from a high of over $218 to end at $135, a drop of 38%.  Our portfolio lost over 90%, a huge reversal from the 700%+ gain that it had enjoyed in 2017 (see below).  

 

The Terry's Tips 2017 Track Record Final Results 

The year has ended, and it is time to record the results for 2017. The composite average of our 10 portfolios gained 113% for 2017, just about the best year we have enjoyed in our 16 years of publishing Terry’s Tips. Only one portfolio (Honey Badger) lost money (and it covered the entire loss for the year in the first week of 2018).

• Boomer’s Revenge – (restarted with $5000 on 1/22/18 after withdrawal of $2797) – 56% gain for 2017 

• Capstone Cascade – (restarted with $10,000 on 1/2/18 after withdrawal of $4836) – 48% gain for 2017 

• Contango (our only portfolio not available for Auto-Trade – restarted with $5000 on 1/2/18) – 138% gain for 2017 

• Earnings Eagle (started with $5000 on 6/7/17) – 31% gain over last 6 months of 2017 

• Galloping Turtle (restarted with $5000 using new strategy on 11/20/17 after withdrawal of $3960) –   79% gain for 2017 

• Honey Badger (restarted with $5000 using a new strategy on 12/26/17) – 48% loss for 2017 (fully recovered in the first week of 2018)

• Leaping Leopard (restarted on 12/26/17 with $5000 after withdrawal of $2001) – 40% gain for 2017 

• Rising Tide (restarted on 1/2/18 with $5000 after withdrawal of $7615) – 152% gain for 2017 

• Vista Valley (restarted in 2018 after VXX reverse split is carried out with $5000 after withdrawal of $5058) – 101% gain for 2017 

• Wiley Wolf (restarted on 11/8/17 with $5000 after $19,840 withdrawal) – 728% gain for 2017

Each of the above portfolios is carried in a separate brokerage account and include all commissions. We currently carry out 9 portfolios at Terry’s Tips, 8 of which are available for Auto-Trade at thinkorswim (so you can follow a portfolio and never have to make a trade on your own).    All except one of these portfolios can be carried out inside an IRA.   Paying subscribers can follow the results of all 9 portfolios. Some newsletters only reveal their winning portfolios to all subscribers, but at Terry's Tips, we disclose every trade and every position for every portfolio at all times.  

All results include commissions at the standard rate charged by thinkorswim for Terry's Tips subscribers.  Many newsletters conveniently (for them) do not include commissions when they report their trading results.  By the way, our subscription rates are considerably less than just about any other options newsletter.

While we can’t promise that future years will be anywhere near as profitable as 2017 has been for us, we do believe that the basic strategies that we have developed can consistently deliver far greater returns than any conventional investments that we know of.

 

The Long-Term Track Record at Terry's Tips 

  

Terry’s Tips has operated sample option portfolios since 2003 for their subscribers to follow or mirror in their own accounts. These portfolios are actual portfolios, and results include all commissions that an investor would pay at thinkorswim, Inc. by TD Ameritrade. Many option newsletters conveniently (for them) do not include commissions in their performance numbers. This makes their results look a lot better than they actually are because commissions are a significant cost of trading options (unlike stock trading which involves much lower commissions).

 

In most of these years, the option portfolios have beaten the market averages by a very large margin. In some years, the portfolios have incurred losses similar to the magnitude of the market losses.

 

Option trading involves leverage, and leverage works in both directions. Gains (and losses) are often greater than changes in the market. However, we have tried to minimize the losses in down years so that our losses are less than those of the markets in general, and to enjoy greater gains than the markets in good years. Most of the time, we have been successful in carrying out these goals.