from the desk of Dr. Terry F Allen

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The 10K Strategy

The 10K Strategy is my favorite investment strategy. I have used it to make an average of over 50% a year for three out of four consecutive years.  I have now added a twist to the strategy so that annual returns might be less than those years but there should be a much higher likelihood of its succeeding.

I got so excited about the strategy that I wrote a book about it (see special offer below).  I set up an actual portfolio to demonstrate how the strategy worked for my subscribers in March 2009. I called it the Boomer’s Revenge portfolio (designed so Baby Boomers who had lost much of their retirement capital in late 2008 could get it back). The underlying stock was SPY (the tracking stock for the S&P 500, so we were essentially betting on the market as a whole rather than any individual stock. I started with $10,000 but every month when the portfolio was worth more than that, I withdrew the extra amount.

A little more than a year later, I had withdrawn $6600 from the portfolio and it was still worth over $10,000 (after paying all commissions, of course). Hundreds of my subscribers had mirrored this portfolio and enjoyed those returns right along with me.

Some people discounted these remarkable gains because the market had moved steadily higher most months in 2009 and early 2010. But then the May 2010 expiration month came along and concerns in Greece and Europe spooked the entire market. The S&P fell over 8%.

So how did the Boomer’s Revenge portfolio hold up when the market swooned? I am proud to report that we gained over 4% that month while investors all around were gnashing their teeth.

The great thing about this strategy is that it can make money even if the market as a whole falls in value (just as long as the drop is not too great) In May 2010 we proved that the market could fall as much as 8% and we could still make a nice gain.

What we didn’t have to do to achieve these results was maybe even more remarkable than what we did have to do. .We didn’t have to be smart traders to make this money. We did not have to guess which way the market would move. We did not have to pick a hot stock, or any stock. We just followed a pre-determined set of Trading Rules, buying longer-term options and selling short-term options to someone else.

The 10K Strategy takes a little work, and at least a small understanding of stock options, but it is well worth the effort. (Actually, you don’t even have to understand it all if you subscribe to my Options Tutorial Program, where I email you every trade I make once it is made. You can mirror my trades, and maybe even get better prices than I do.) You can order it here.

Are you willing to make the effort?

How would you feel about yourself if you did not take the hour or two it might take to learn how to make extraordinary returns on your money every year, even if your stock doesn’t go up at all?

On the other hand, how would it feel to know that you understood a trading strategy that could multiply your net worth many times over in a few short years? Think of the exotic vacations you could take, the fancy cars you could buy, and the early retirement you could earn — all possible because you understood and used an investment vehicle (stock options) that scare most people to death.

This is no fishy proposition.

While making 36% every year without taking big risks may sound too good to be true, this is no fishy proposition. I am not giving you fish — mahi-mahi, red snapper or sea bass. Holy mackerel, all I’m doing is teaching you how to fish. I will give you a formula. Once you have learned it, you may be able to make extraordinary returns on your money every single year – without any help from me.

You will be proud of your newfound ability to achieve stock market riches with this formula. Your family and friends will love you. Your business associates will envy you. Your mother will take full credit for your success.

Here’s the fine print.

Okay, anything this good must have some drawbacks, so here they are:

  1. I can’t guarantee a 36% return in one year while not risking a loss. But I can show you every trade we made in 2009 that resulted in better than a 60% gain on our money (after paying all the commissions).
  2. You will have to work. That means placing option orders with your discount broker on or about the third Friday of each month. When you subscribe to Terry’s Tips, I will email you the exact trades I make in every portfolio using the 10K Strategy (for two months there is no extra charge). Once you understand how the strategy unfolds you probably won’t need my help any longer. You will know exactly what to do each month on your own.  
  3. You will need to have access to an Internaet connection or a telephone on or about the third Friday (expiration day), and sometimes for adjustments at other times. This is not always easy, but I have made hundreds of trades on the telephone from a remote island in the Bahamas, a bastide in Provence, and a small village in the middle of Russia. So it is almost always possible.
  4. Most of your profits will be taxed as short-term capital gains.  This is a major disadvantage of the strategy and a big reason to carry it out in your IRA or other tax-deferred account.

Yes, you can use this strategy in your IRA. You will have to set up an IRA account with a broker who allows option spreads.

Does the stock have to go up for the 10K Strategy to be profitable? 

As long as the stock moves only moderately (5% or so) during an expiration month, it doesn’t matter which way the stock moves.  We spend a good share of the invested amount in an insurance bet that pays off only if the stock falls (and usually maintain a cash reserve for a downside adjustment as well).

A Conservative Options Strategy

Many people believe that a conservative options strategy is an oxymoron.  Options are leveraged and depreciating investments that involve a great deal of risk.  However, for virtually every option that the 10K Strategy owns, there is an offsetting short option to protect against a moderate stock price move in either direction.

The 10K Strategy in a nutshell – it’s all about the Decay Rate

Decay Rate for a Typical Option

If the price of the stock remains the same, all options become less valuable over time. This makes total sense. If you own an option that has a year to go before it expires, you would be willing to pay more for it than you would for an option that lasted only a month.

The amount that the option falls in value is called its decay. There are two interesting aspects of decay. First, it tends to be quite low when there is a long time until the option expires. Second, decay increases dramatically as the option moves toward the date when it expires (the expiration date).

A typical 12-month call option (strike price 70) for a $70 stock might be about $7.80. Instead of paying $7000 to buy 100 shares of the stock, you could buy the right to purchase the stock at $780. Having the option would give you all the rights of stock ownership except receiving dividends and voting on company matters. For every dollar the stock went up, you would gain $100 just like the owner of 100 shares would enjoy.

Of course, you wouldn’t actually make a gain until after the stock had gone up by $7.80 to cover the cost of the call option you bought. But you would have a full year for that to happen.

Each month you waited to buy this option (assuming the stock stayed at $70), you would pay less much less. When there was only a month to go until expiration, a one-month call option (same strike, same $70 stock) might sell for $1.80 The stock would only have to go up $1.80 before you made money on your call purchase, but there would only be one month for that to happen.

Most option buyers prefer to pay $1.80 for an option that only has a month of remaining life rather than $7.80 for an option that has a year of life. In the 10K Strategy, we do just the opposite.

In the 10K Strategy, at the same time we buy options with several months of remaining life until expiration, we sell someone else an option that only has a month to go until expiration. We are allowed to use our longer-term option as collateral for the short term sale.

When you simultaneously buy a long-term option and sell a short-term option on the same underlying stock or ETF at the same strike price, you are placing what is called a calendar spread (also called a time spread).

The price we pay is the difference in price between the two options. For example:

Buy one-year call option at 70 strike price for $7.80
Sell one-month call option at 70 strike price for $1.80
Cost of spread: $6.00 ($600)

After one month, if the price of the stock remains at $70, the price of the option we bought for $7.80 will have fallen in value by about $.40, and would be worth about $7.40. However, the option we sold to someone else would be worthless since the stock price is not higher than $70 and there is no time remaining for the option.

At the end of one month (assuming the stock is still at $70), the spread that we purchased for $600 would then consist of a single call option with 11 months of remaining life which is worth $740. We would have made a gain of $140, or about 23% on our investment in a single month (less commissions). At that point, we would sell another one-month option for $180 and wait for another month to expire.

If the stock remained at $70 for an entire year, and we sold a one-month option 11 more times for $1.80 a pop, we would collect $19.80 ($1980) on our original investment of $6.00 ($600), or over 300%.

The difference in the lower decay rate of the long-term option we own and the higher decay rate of the short-term option we sell is the essence of the 10K Strategy. Everything else is just details.

Of course, this is a simplified example. Commissions would eat a little into the gains, and the stock will never stay exactly flat. Sometimes it will stay almost flat, however, and we would earn over 20% in a single month in the above example.

The 10K Strategy consists spending most of your cash to purchase call calendar spreads at strikes near and above the stock price. A portion of portfolio value, usually 10% – 20% is retained as a reserve in case adjustments need to be made.

For example, if the stock falls early in an expiration month, some downside protection might be added on to insure that if the market continues to fall, a loss can be avoided. These adjustments might take one of several possible forms. The most common one would be to purchase additional calendar spreads at strike prices below the stock price.

We have also had good luck with what we call an exotic butterfly spread. This is much like a traditional butterfly spread except that one of the legs is in a further-out month. When you become a Terry’s Tips Insider, our options tutorial will include a complete set of adjustment Trading Rules, including both the traditional and exotic butterfly spreads.

Buy the Book and Learn all About Calendar Spreads and the 10K Strategy

If you would like to see how calendar spreads can be used to achieve consistent returns every year that the market moves moderately in either direction, all you have to do is buy a copy of my book (Making 36%). 

You can buy the book here and you will receive:

  1. An electronic version of Making 36%: Duffer’s Guide to Breaking Par in the Market Every Year, in Good Years and Bad.
  2. A copy of the paperback book mailed to you by first class mail.

This may seem a little hard to believe. For a total cost of $12.94, you will have everything you need to make superior investment returns for many years. It could easily be worth hundreds of thousands of dollars to you. There is nothing else for you to buy (unless you would like to learn even more, and become a Terry’s Tips Insider).

Making 36% – A Duffer’s Guide to Breaking Par in the Market Every Year in Good Years and Bad

Making 36%: Duffer's Guide to Breaking Par in the Market Every Year in Good Years and Bad Here is what the book looks like (but the good stuff is inside):The book was originally published at $19.95. You will receive an electronic version so you can start right away, and the paperback version will be mailed to you free of shipping and handling charges. Order it today

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TERRY’S TIPS STOCK OPTIONS TRADING BLOG

March 5, 2024

March 5, 2024

Sunny Outlook

We’re headed back to the bullish side this week with a trade on First Solar (FSLR). The country’s largest solar module maker reported earnings on Tuesday after the bell. Earnings per share came in above estimates, while revenue fell short despite growing more than 15% year over year. The company guided earnings and sales that were in line with or slightly higher than the analyst consensus.

The stock jumped as much as 9% on the news before closing 3% higher. That’s in sharp contrast to other solar companies, which have been plagued by lower demand, high interest rates, regulatory changes and higher inventories. But FSLR managed to overcome those headwinds with stronger pricing power, something analysts see continuing in 2024.

The news was not met with any ratings changes, though there were a few target price increases. Depending on the source, FSLR’s average target price is in the $210-235 range, which is well above Friday’s $158 close. Given that the stock reached a high of $232 last May – its highest level in the past 25 years – these estimates may be a tad overexuberant.

My take on FSLR – based on the charts – is more conservative. The stock has gone nowhere in the past five months, travelling mostly between the 140 and 175 levels. The 20-day and 50-day moving averages, which have provided nothing in terms of support or resistance, are horizontal and of little use.

Given the positive earnings results and outlook, we’re looking for the bottom of this trading range continuing to hold at 140, a level the stock has closed below just seven times going back to October 2022. The short strike of our put spread is at 140, which is more than 11% below Friday’s close. Because we’re going so far OTM with this trade, the credit and max return are somewhat lower than most of our trades. Less risk, less reward.        

If you agree that the stock will continue respecting the bottom of its trading range, consider the following credit spread trade that relies on FSLR staying above $140 (blue line) through expiration in 7 weeks:

Buy to Open the FSLR 19 Apr 135 put (FSLR240419P135)
Sell to Open the FSLR 19 Apr 140 put (FSLR240419P140) for a credit of $0.90 (selling a vertical)

This credit is $0.05 less than the mid-point price of the spread at Friday’s $158.05 close.   Unless FSLR surges at the open on Monday, you should be able to get close to that price.

The commission on this trade should be no more than $1.30 per spread. Each spread would then yield $88.70. This trade reduces your buying power by $500, making your net investment $411.30 per spread ($500 – $88.70). If FSLR closes above $140 on Apr. 19, the options will expire worthless and your return on the spread would be 22% ($88.70/$411.30).

** We are crushing it! Our Costco (COST) portfolio is up 23% already this year. Our Microsoft (MSFT) portfolio is up 14% (last year this portfolio returned more than 70%). Don’t be left behind … there’s still time to save more than 50% on a monthly subscription to Terry’s Tips. Just Click Here, select Sign Up Now and use Coupon Code D21M to start a monthly subscription to Terry’s Tips for half off.**

January 31, 2024

January 31, 2024

Dear [[firstname]],

Here’s your Option Trade of the Week as included in this past weekend’s Saturday Report for our Terry’s Tips Premium Members.The credit from last week’s trade ran away from us pretty quickly, so I opted to pass on sending it out knowing that you wouldn’t get the minimum credit. This week’s trade – which gets us back on a bullish track – has a better chance for entry. So, I’m hoping that you can make it work.

Before that, though, I have to tell you that our Microsoft (MSFT) portfolio – we call it Wiley Wolfis on fire. With January in the books, we are already up more than 22% while the stock itself is up less than 6%. In fact, we booked more than half that huge gain just today after MSFT’s earnings!

How did we do it? The same way we bagged 70% and 92% profits using MSFT and QQQ last year – Dr. Terry Allen’s 10K Strategy. This market-beating strategy has proven itself over the past two decades … and this year looks to be no exception.

You can’t afford to miss out on these profits. Resolve to make 2024 your best trading year ever – and learn about Terry’s unique strategy – by becoming a Premium Member of Terry’s Tips.

For our loyal newsletter subscribers (that’s you), I’m of course keeping the sale going that saves you more than 50% on a monthly subscription to Terry’s Tips. Plus, I’m adding a promise that this rate will never increase. I won’t make this promise forever, though, so now is the time to get in on the action … and profits.

As a Premium Member to Terry’s Tips, you’ll get …

  • A month of all trade alerts in our four portfolios, giving detailed instructions for entering and exiting positions. Trade one portfolio (I recommend Wiley Wolf) or all four. It’s up to you.
  • Four to five (depending on the month) weekly issues of our Saturday Report, which shows all the trades and positions for our four portfolios, a discussion of the week’s trading activity and early access to our Option Trade of the Week.
  • Instructions on how to execute the 10K Strategy on your own.
  • Access to our autobrokers to make trades on your behalf.
  • A 14-day options tutorial on the opportunities and risks of trading options.
  • Our updated 10K Strategy white paper, a thorough discussion of the strategy basics and tactics.
  • Full-member access to all our premium special reports that can make you a wiser and more profitable options trader. 
  • Annual subscription available for more than 50% savings

And, for a limited time, I am including a Special Bonus. Terry Allen has condensed his 30 years of options trading experience into an eBook – Making 36% – A Duffer’s Guide to Breaking Par in the Market Every Year, in Good Years and Bad. Learn a different way to trade using Terry’s unique and decades-tested 10K Strategy. This book is normally $9.98 on our website (and $19.95 on Amazon), but I will personally send you the digital version for free with a paid subscription.

To become a Terry’s Tips Premium Member, just Click Here, select Sign Up Now and use Coupon Code D21M to start a monthly subscription to Terry’s Tips for half off. You can cancel after a month but, of course, keep all the valuable reports and the book.

I look forward to having you join in the fun and profits! Now on to the trade …

It’s Intuitive

Lots to chew on this week with earnings season in full swing, so let’s dive right in with a bullish trade on Intuitive Surgical (ISRG). The company makes surgical instruments, notably the da Vinci robot, that emphasize minimal invasiveness. ISRG reported Tuesday after the bell, easily beating on the top (profit) and bottom (revenue) lines. Earnings per share increased 30% from a year earlier, while revenues improved more than 16%. Much of this growth came from a 21% increase in da Vinci procedures.

Analysts were quick to raise their target prices, with at least a half dozen trying to beat each other to the punch. These were not minor increases, either. One firm raised its target by 35%, while several others were around 15%. That equates to increases of $30 to more than $100 … not bad for a $375 stock. Oddly, there were no rating increases, keeping ISRG at a solid buy rating. However, there are few holds on the stock, leaving some room for upgrades.

Also odd is the fact that the stock fell as much as 3.4% on Wednesday, though it closed just 0.4% lower. That’s the smallest move after earnings in more than 11 years. There wasn’t much action after that, as ISRG gained about a percent on Thursday and Friday. The stock reaction might give one pause given the strong earnings results. However, the muted move makes more sense since the company already released bullish guidance numbers a couple of weeks ago. That caused the shares to pop more than 10%, making this week’s news less impactful.

The guidance surge pulled the stock away from its 20-day moving average, a trendline that has guided a 47% rally over the past three months. The shares spent a few days just below the 20-day in early January, the only time they were staring up at the trendline since crossing above it on November 1. We are therefore using the 20-day as the basis of this week’s bullish trade. The short put strike of our spread sits just below the 20-day, which is about 6% beneath Friday’s close.

If you agree that the stock will continue trading above, or at least near, the 20-day moving average (blue line), consider the following credit spread trade that relies on ISRG staying above $350 (red line) through expiration in 7 weeks:

Buy to Open the ISRG 15 Mar 345 put (ISRG240315P345)
Sell to Open the ISRG 15 Mar 350 put (ISRG240315P350) for a credit of $1.00 (selling a vertical)

This credit is $0.10 less than the mid-point price of the spread at Friday’s $374.76 close.   Unless ISRG surges sharply at the open on Monday, you should be able to get close to that price.

The commission on this trade should be no more than $1.30 per spread. Each spread would then yield $98.70. This trade reduces your buying power by $500, making your net investment $401.30 per spread ($500 – $98.70). If ISRG closes above $350 on Mar 15, the options will expire worthless and your return on the spread would be 25% ($98.70/$401.30).

Testimonial

It is often said that options are to stock trading as chess is to checkers. I was looking to find the chess master amongst the checker’s champs, and Terry is the one. Looking for very smart yet understandable way to trade options? Look no further. ~ Phil Wells

Remember to click here, select Sign Up Now and use Coupon Code D21M to start a monthly subscription to Terry’s Tips for half off. And get Terry’s eBook for free.

Any questions?  Email Jon@terrystips.com. Thank you again for being a part of the
Terry’s Tips newsletter.

January 17, 2024

January 17, 2024

Dear [[firstname]],

It may be a little late, but Happy New Year! I haven’t sent an issue for a while because the credits for our weekly trades weren’t close enough to my target entry prices. As you know, I will not send an issue with a trade you have no chance of entering. This week, however, the credit is higher than when I sent the trade to our premium subscribers, meaning your maximum profit is now greater.

This is my first chance to tell you about the amazing profits we racked up last year. Our QQQ portfolio gained more than 90% for the year, while our MSFT portfolio brought in 70%. We’re on some kind of roll with MSFT, averaging gains of more than 100% over the past 5 years. And 2024 has started the same way … in the profit column.

You can’t afford to miss out on these profits. Resolve to make 2024 your best trading year ever with a subscription to Terry’s Tips.

For our loyal newsletter subscribers (that’s you), I’m of course keeping the sale going that saves you more than 50% on a monthly subscription to Terry’s Tips. Plus, I’m adding a promise that this rate will never increase. I won’t make this promise forever, though, so now is the time to get in on the action … and profits.

As a Premium Member to Terry’s Tips, you’ll get …

  • A month of all trade alerts in our four portfolios, giving detailed instructions for entering and exiting positions. Trade one portfolio or all four. It’s up to you.
  • Four to five (depending on the month) weekly issues of our Saturday Report, which shows all the trades and positions for our four portfolios, a discussion of the week’s trading activity and early access to our Option Trade of the Week.
  • Instructions on how to execute the 10K Strategy on your own.
  • A 14-day options tutorial on the opportunities and risks of trading options.
  • Our updated 10K Strategy white paper, a thorough discussion of the strategy basics and tactics.
  • Full-member access to all our premium special reports that can make you a wiser and more profitable options trader. 

And for a limited time, I am including a Special Bonus. Terry Allen has condensed his 30 years of options trading experience into an eBook – Making 36% – A Duffer’s Guide to Breaking Par in the Market Every Year, in Good Years and Bad.” Learn a different way to trade using Terry’s unique and decades-tested 10K Strategy. This book is normally $9.98 on our website (and $19.95 on Amazon), but I will personally send you the digital version for free with a paid subscription.  

To become a Terry’s Tips Premium Member, just Click Here, select Sign Up Now and use Coupon Code D21M to start a monthly subscription to Terry’s Tips for half off. You can cancel after a month but, of course, keep all the valuable reports and the book.

I look forward to having you join in the fun and profits! Now on to the trade …

United We Fall

Earnings season started this week, though the number of reports was limited. Big banks dominated the headlines, but I didn’t see anything tradeable there. And I was looking for a bearish play to diversify a portfolio that will be all put spreads after this coming Friday.

So, I went with a company that’s bigger – by market cap – than any bank: UnitedHealth Group (UNH). The company reported on Friday, beating expectations for both revenue and income. But a key metric – the medical cost ratio – came in well above estimates. And that proved to be UNH’s undoing, as the stock slumped 3.4% on Friday.

UNH has a half-trillion-dollar market cap, so it gets a lot of analyst coverage. But oddly, there wasn’t a peep from the analyst community on Friday –  no ratings changes and no target price moves. Perhaps they were mulling over their overly bullish stance toward the stock.

According to Yahoo! Finance, all 22 rating analysts consider UNH a buy or strong buy. The average target price is around $600, which is 15% above Friday’s close and 7% above the stock’s all-time high, set in October 2022. And it’s not like UNH set the world on fire in 2023. In fact, the stock closed the year a few bucks lower. Maybe we’ll start seeing some analysts ease back on the throttle and temper their targets and ratings, which could put some pressure on the stock.

The price drop on Friday pulled the shares below both their 20-day and 50-day moving averages. For the technical purists, the 20-day (blue line) bearishly crossed below the 50-day (red line) at the end of last year.

I’ve also noted an interesting pattern with UNH. Whatever the stock does the day after earnings tends to be the path for the next several weeks. After the past two earnings reports, the stock gained after earnings and continued to be higher through the subsequent five weeks. The two quarters before that, it was the opposite story – lower the day after earnings and five weeks after earnings. So, if history holds, UNH may find some rough sledding for the next few weeks. Plus, it will have to overcome its short-term moving averages, which are both headed lower.

This week’s bearish call spread has a short strike at the 540 level, which is above both the 20-day and 50-day moving averages. It also sits in an area where the stock has struggled to consistently stay above. Note that this is a 10-point spread because that is the strike increment in the 16Feb series. We’re going with the monthly series because UNH’s weekly options have poorer liquidity. Thus, these spreads will require more buying power, as noted below.

If you agree that the stock will continue to struggle after its earnings slump, consider the following credit spread trade that relies on UNH staying below $540 (green line) through expiration in 5 weeks:

Buy to Open the UNH 16 Feb 550 call (UNH240216C550)
Sell to Open the UNH 16 Feb 540 call (UNH240216C540)

for a credit of $2.20 (selling a vertical)

This credit is $0.10 less than the mid-point price of the spread at Friday’s $521.51 close.   Unless UNH falls sharply at the open on Tuesday, you should be able to get close to that price.

The commission on this trade should be no more than $1.30 per spread. Each spread would then yield $218.70. This trade reduces your buying power by $1,000, making your net investment $781.30 per spread ($1,000 – $218.70). If UNH closes below $540 on Feb 16, the options will expire worthless and your return on the spread would be 8% ($218.70/$781.30).

Testimonial of the Week

I have been a subscriber for about a year. I autotrade in 2 different accounts, all your strategies. I read everything you write on Saturdays. I love your happiness thoughts and everything else. I usually do not communicate at all but I had to tell you how well my accounts with you are doing compared to everything else. You are awesome. Keep up the good work. Thank you. – Maya

Remember to click here, select Sign Up Now and use Coupon Code D21M to start a monthly subscription to Terry’s Tips for half off. And get Terry’s eBook for free.

Any questions?  Email Jon@terrystips.com. Thank you again for being a part of the Terry’s Tips newsletter.

Happy trading,

Jon L

Making 36%

Making 36% – A Duffer's Guide to Breaking Par in the Market Every Year in Good Years and Bad

This digital book may not improve your golf game, but it might change your financial situation so that you will have more time for the greens and fairways (and sometimes the woods).

Learn why Dr. Allen believes that the 10K Strategy is less risky than owning stocks or mutual funds, and why it is especially appropriate for your IRA.

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