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Tip 6 - The 10K Strategy

The 10K Strategy is my favorite investment strategy. I have used it to make an average of over 50% a year for three out of four consecutive years.  I have now added a twist to the strategy so that annual returns might be less than those years but there should be a much higher likelihood of its succeeding.

I got so excited about the strategy that I wrote a book about it (see special offer below).  I set up an actual portfolio to demonstrate how the strategy worked for my subscribers in March 2009. I called it the Boomer’s Revenge portfolio (designed so Baby Boomers who had lost much of their retirement capital in late 2008 could get it back). The underlying stock was SPY (the tracking stock for the S&P 500, so we were essentially betting on the market as a whole rather than any individual stock. I started with $10,000 but every month when the portfolio was worth more than that, I withdrew the extra amount.

A little more than a year later, I had withdrawn $6600 from the portfolio and it was still worth over $10,000 (after paying all commissions, of course). Hundreds of my subscribers had mirrored this portfolio and enjoyed those returns right along with me.

Some people discounted these remarkable gains because the market had moved steadily higher most months in 2009 and early 2010. But then the May 2010 expiration month came along and concerns in Greece and Europe spooked the entire market. The S&P fell over 8%.

So how did the Boomer’s Revenge portfolio hold up when the market swooned? I am proud to report that we gained over 4% that month while investors all around were gnashing their teeth.

The great thing about this strategy is that it can make money even if the market as a whole falls in value (just as long as the drop is not too great) In May 2010 we proved that the market could fall as much as 8% and we could still make a nice gain.

What we didn’t have to do to achieve these results was maybe even more remarkable than what we did have to do. .We didn’t have to be smart traders to make this money. We did not have to guess which way the market would move. We did not have to pick a hot stock, or any stock. We just followed a pre-determined set of Trading Rules, buying longer-term options and selling short-term options to someone else.

The 10K Strategy takes a little work, and at least a small understanding of stock options, but it is well worth the effort. (Actually, you don't even have to understand it all if you subscribe to my Options Tutorial Program, where I email you every trade I make once it is made. You can mirror my trades, and maybe even get better prices than I do.) You can order it here.

Are you willing to make the effort?

How would you feel about yourself if you did not take the hour or two it might take to learn how to make extraordinary returns on your money every year, even if your stock doesn't go up at all?

On the other hand, how would it feel to know that you understood a trading strategy that could multiply your net worth many times over in a few short years? Think of the exotic vacations you could take, the fancy cars you could buy, and the early retirement you could earn — all possible because you understood and used an investment vehicle (stock options) that scare most people to death.

This is no fishy proposition.

While making 36% every year without taking big risks may sound too good to be true, this is no fishy proposition. I am not giving you fish — mahi-mahi, red snapper or sea bass. Holy mackerel, all I'm doing is teaching you how to fish. I will give you a formula. Once you have learned it, you may be able to make extraordinary returns on your money every single year – without any help from me.

You will be proud of your newfound ability to achieve stock market riches with this formula. Your family and friends will love you. Your business associates will envy you. Your mother will take full credit for your success.

Here's the fine print.

Okay, anything this good must have some drawbacks, so here they are:

  1. I can't guarantee a 36% return in one year while not risking a loss. But I can show you every trade we made in 2009 that resulted in better than a 60% gain on our money (after paying all the commissions).
  2. You will have to work. That means placing option orders with your discount broker on or about the third Friday of each month. When you subscribe to Terry's Tips, I will email you the exact trades I make in every portfolio using the 10K Strategy (for two months there is no extra charge). Once you understand how the strategy unfolds you probably won't need my help any longer. You will know exactly what to do each month on your own.  
  3. You will need to have access to an Internaet connection or a telephone on or about the third Friday (expiration day), and sometimes for adjustments at other times. This is not always easy, but I have made hundreds of trades on the telephone from a remote island in the Bahamas, a bastide in Provence, and a small village in the middle of Russia. So it is almost always possible.
  4. Most of your profits will be taxed as short-term capital gains.  This is a major disadvantage of the strategy and a big reason to carry it out in your IRA or other tax-deferred account.

Yes, you can use this strategy in your IRA. You will have to set up an IRA account with a broker who allows option spreads (very few brokers do). My favorite broker is thinkorswim, Inc. by TD Ameritrade, (Barron's choice of the #1 software-based options broker for several years running) and I highly recommend them for option traders. Their rates are quite low, their website is option-friendly, and you will have more information about your options (including deltas, gammas, and other Greek measures) than you will probably ever need.

Does the stock have to go up for the 10K Strategy to be profitable? 

As long as the stock moves only moderately (5% or so) during an expiration month, it doesn’t matter which way the stock moves.  We spend a good share of the invested amount in an insurance bet that pays off only if the stock falls (and usually maintain a cash reserve for a downside adjustment as well).

A Conservative Options Strategy

Many people believe that a conservative options strategy is an oxymoron.  Options are leveraged and depreciating investments that involve a great deal of risk.  However, for virtually every option that the 10K Strategy owns, there is an offsetting short option to protect against a moderate stock price move in either direction.

The 10K Strategy in a nutshell - it's all about the Decay Rate

Decay Rate for a Typical Option

If the price of the stock remains the same, all options become less valuable over time. This makes total sense. If you own an option that has a year to go before it expires, you would be willing to pay more for it than you would for an option that lasted only a month.

The amount that the option falls in value is called its decay. There are two interesting aspects of decay. First, it tends to be quite low when there is a long time until the option expires. Second, decay increases dramatically as the option moves toward the date when it expires (the expiration date).

A typical 12-month call option (strike price 70) for a $70 stock might be about $7.80. Instead of paying $7000 to buy 100 shares of the stock, you could buy the right to purchase the stock at $780. Having the option would give you all the rights of stock ownership except receiving dividends and voting on company matters. For every dollar the stock went up, you would gain $100 just like the owner of 100 shares would enjoy.

Of course, you wouldn’t actually make a gain until after the stock had gone up by $7.80 to cover the cost of the call option you bought. But you would have a full year for that to happen.

Each month you waited to buy this option (assuming the stock stayed at $70), you would pay less much less. When there was only a month to go until expiration, a one-month call option (same strike, same $70 stock) might sell for $1.80 The stock would only have to go up $1.80 before you made money on your call purchase, but there would only be one month for that to happen.

Most option buyers prefer to pay $1.80 for an option that only has a month of remaining life rather than $7.80 for an option that has a year of life. In the 10K Strategy, we do just the opposite.

In the 10K Strategy, at the same time we buy options with several months of remaining life until expiration, we sell someone else an option that only has a month to go until expiration. We are allowed to use our longer-term option as collateral for the short term sale.

When you simultaneously buy a long-term option and sell a short-term option on the same underlying stock or ETF at the same strike price, you are placing what is called a calendar spread (also called a time spread).

The price we pay is the difference in price between the two options. For example:

Buy one-year call option at 70 strike price for $7.80
Sell one-month call option at 70 strike price for $1.80
Cost of spread: $6.00 ($600)

After one month, if the price of the stock remains at $70, the price of the option we bought for $7.80 will have fallen in value by about $.40, and would be worth about $7.40. However, the option we sold to someone else would be worthless since the stock price is not higher than $70 and there is no time remaining for the option.

At the end of one month (assuming the stock is still at $70), the spread that we purchased for $600 would then consist of a single call option with 11 months of remaining life which is worth $740. We would have made a gain of $140, or about 23% on our investment in a single month (less commissions). At that point, we would sell another one-month option for $180 and wait for another month to expire.

If the stock remained at $70 for an entire year, and we sold a one-month option 11 more times for $1.80 a pop, we would collect $19.80 ($1980) on our original investment of $6.00 ($600), or over 300%.

The difference in the lower decay rate of the long-term option we own and the higher decay rate of the short-term option we sell is the essence of the 10K Strategy. Everything else is just details.

Of course, this is a simplified example. Commissions would eat a little into the gains, and the stock will never stay exactly flat. Sometimes it will stay almost flat, however, and we would earn over 20% in a single month in the above example.

The 10K Strategy consists spending most of your cash to purchase call calendar spreads at strikes near and above the stock price. A portion of portfolio value, usually 10% - 20% is retained as a reserve in case adjustments need to be made.

For example, if the stock falls early in an expiration month, some downside protection might be added on to insure that if the market continues to fall, a loss can be avoided. These adjustments might take one of several possible forms. The most common one would be to purchase additional calendar spreads at strike prices below the stock price.

We have also had good luck with what we call an exotic butterfly spread. This is much like a traditional butterfly spread except that one of the legs is in a further-out month. When you become a Terry’s Tips Insider, our options tutorial will include a complete set of adjustment Trading Rules, including both the traditional and exotic butterfly spreads.

Buy the Book and Learn all About Calendar Spreads and the 10K Strategy

If you would like to see how calendar spreads can be used to achieve consistent returns every year that the market moves moderately in either direction, all you have to do is buy a copy of my book (Making 36%). 

You can buy the book at the discounted price of only $12.94 - go to www.terrystips.com/programs-and-pricing/making-36-percent and enter the Discount Code TEE and you will receive:

  1. An electronic version of Making 36%: Duffer’s Guide to Breaking Par in the Market Every Year, in Good Years and Bad.
  2. A copy of the paperback book mailed to you by first class mail.

This may seem a little hard to believe. For a total cost of $12.94, you will have everything you need to make superior investment returns for many years. It could easily be worth hundreds of thousands of dollars to you. There is nothing else for you to buy (unless you would like to learn even more, and become a Terry's Tips Insider).

Making 36% – A Duffer's Guide to Breaking Par in the Market Every Year in Good Years and Bad

Making 36%: Duffer's Guide to Breaking Par in the Market Every Year in Good Years and Bad

Here is what the book looks like (but the good stuff is inside):

The book was originally published at $19.95. You will receive an electronic version so you can start right away, and the paperback version will be mailed to you free of shipping and handling charges. Order it today at www.terrystips.com/programs-and-pricing/making-36-percent (Enter the discount code TEE and your cost will be only $12.94, including shipping by First Class mail).

This could be the best investment decision you ever make. At least, you won't be risking much to learn the strategy. And it could change your investment outlook for a lifetime. Total cost, including shipping only $12.94 - www.terrystips.com/programs-and-pricing/making-36-percent (Enter the discount code TEE).

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Terry's Tips Stock Options Trading Blog

February 19, 2019

Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR) Marches Higher Following Their Earnings Report

This week we are looking at another of the Investor’s Business Daily (IBD) Top 50 List companies.  We use this list in one of our options portfolios to spot outperforming stocks and place option spreads that take advantage of the momentum.  The actual portfolio carried out at Terry’s Tips which trades these spreads has gained 134% in the first six weeks of 2019, making it our most profitable portfolio so far this year. (It also gained over 100% in 2018.)  Of course, past results can’t be guaranteed to repeat themselves, but we do feel pretty good about these kinds of spreads, at least when the overall market is moving higher.

Terry

Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR) Marches Higher Following Their Earnings Report

Monolithic Power Systems’ stock price has risen steadily since bottoming in late December and several analysts expect more upside, take a look at these two articles to see what the appeal is – Don’t Miss This Stock: Monolithic Power Systems and ROE & Quant Signals Under the Lens For Monolithic Power Systems.

MPWR has made some important technical breaks over the past few weeks to reaffirm its bullish trend.  First was a sustained push back above the 200-day moving average.  Second was when it climbed over a horizontal level near $132 that has been well respected since last summer as both support and resistance.  The significance of this level can be seen on a daily chart but perhaps more clearly on a weekly chart. In the past week the stock made a determined push above the level, taking out the November high at the same time to trade at a fresh 5-month high.  A hurdle is seen around $142 and a break of the level would suggest MPWR is headed for record highs.

[caption id="attachment_2338" align="alignnone" width="300"]MPWR Chart February 2019 MPWR Chart February 2019[/caption]

*source Tradingview.com

If you agree there's further upside ahead for MPWR, consider this trade which is a bet that the stock will continue to advance over the next four weeks, or at least not decline very much.

Buy To Open MPWR 15MAR19 130 Puts (MPWR190315P130)
Sell To Open MPWR 15MAR19 135 Puts (MPWR190315P135) for a credit of $1.23 (selling a vertical)

This price was $0.02 less than the mid-point of the option spread when MPWR was trading near $138.  Unless the stock rallies quickly from here, you should be able to get close to this amount.

Your commission on this trade will only be $2.50 per spread (the rate charged by thinkorswim for Terry’s Tips’ subscribers).  Each contract would then yield $120.50 and your broker would charge a $500 maintenance fee, making your investment $379.50 ($500 – $120.50).  If MPWR closes at any price above $135 on March 15, both options would expire worthless, and your return on the spread would be 32% (467% annualized).

Changes to Investor’s Business Daily (IBD) Top 50 This Week:

[caption id="attachment_2339" align="alignnone" width="238"]IBD Underlying Updates February 14, 2019 IBD Underlying Updates February 14, 2019[/caption]

We have found that the Investor’s Business Daily Top 50 List has been a reliable source of stocks that are likely to move higher in the short run.  Recent additions to the list might be particularly good choices for this strategy, and deletions might be good indicators for exiting a position that you might already have on that stock.

As with all investments, you should only make option trades with money that you can truly afford to lose.

Happy trading,

Terry

February 10, 2019

Can Microchip Technology (MCHP) Maintain its Post-Earnings Momentum?

This week we are looking at another of the Investor’s Business Daily (IBD) Top 50 List companies.  We use this list in one of our options portfolios to spot outperforming stocks and place option spreads that take advantage of the momentum. Our actual portfolio carried out at Terry’s Tips which trades these weekly ideas has gained 114% in the first five weeks of 2019.  This portfolio also made over 100% in 2018 and we withdrew the starting investment amount so that we are playing entirely with profits at this time.  Of course, there is no certainty that we can duplicate this success in the future, but we feel pretty good about our prospects.

Terry

Can Microchip Technology (MCHP) Maintain its Post-Earnings Momentum?

Microchip Technology saw its stock price rally just over 10% prior to pulling back as investor optimism grew following their earnings report in the past week.  Just to be clear, the report was not as upbeat as expected.  Actually, the stock had turned down initially, but it was a prediction from the company Chief Executive that caused investors to change their view and start buying.  It’s a rather interesting turn of events and the following two articles explain why the markets have put so much weight to his prediction, and why the stock may continue to rise from here – Microchip’s stock soars after CEO calls for a bottom, and he’s been right before and Microchip: A Bottom Is Possibly In.

 

The push higher following earnings led to a signifcant technical break as the stock was pressed against a confluence of resistance prior to it.  Resistance comes from the 200-day moving average as well as a declining trendline drawn from the June top.  The stock price has pulled back a bit from horizontal resistance found at $89.20 that was a prior low and prior resistance following a gap down last summer.  Support is found just above $85.  In the even the support level does not hold, stronger support is found at the prior breakout point.  Considering the significance of the technical break, bulls are likely to defend any dips in the near-term.

[caption id="attachment_2333" align="alignnone" width="300"]MCHP Chart February 2019 MCHP Chart February 2019[/caption]

*source Tradingview.com

If you agree there's further upside ahead for MCHP, consider this trade which is a bet that the stock will continue to advance over the next five weeks, or at least not decline very much.

Buy To Open MCHP 15MAR19 85.00 Puts (MCHP190315P85.00)
Sell To Open MCHP 15MAR19 87.50 Puts (MCHP190315P87.50) for a credit of $1.10 (selling a vertical)

This price was $0.02 less than the mid-point of the option spread when MCHP was trading near $87.50.  Unless the stock rallies quickly from here, you should be able to get close to this amount.

Your commission on this trade will only be $2.50 per spread (the rate charged by thinkorswim for Terry’s Tips’ subscribers).  Each contract would then yield $355.50 and your broker would charge a $1000 maintenance fee, making your investment $644.50 ($1000 – $355.50).  If MCHP closes at any price above $87.50 on March 15, both options would expire worthless, and your return on the spread would be 55% (627% annualized).

Changes to Investor’s Business Daily (IBD) Top 50 This Week:

[caption id="attachment_2334" align="alignnone" width="181"]IBD Underlying Updates February 7, 2019 IBD Underlying Updates February 7, 2019[/caption]

We have found that the Investor’s Business Daily Top 50 List has been a reliable source of stocks that are likely to move higher in the short run.  Recent additions to the list might be particularly good choices for this strategy, and deletions might be good indicators for exiting a position that you might already have on that stock.

As with all investments, you should only make option trades with money that you can truly afford to lose.

Happy trading,

Terry

February 3, 2019

PayPal (PYPL) Dips After Earnings, Is it a Buy?

This week we are looking at another of the Investor’s Business Daily (IBD) Top 50 List companies.  We use this list in one of our options portfolios to spot outperforming stocks and place option spreads that take advantage of the momentum.

Terry

PayPal (PYPL) Dips After Earnings, Is it a Buy?

After briefly piercing to record highs, PayPal stock declined following its earnings report in the past week.  Is the dip a buying opportunity? The following article provides some solid arguments for why it is – Buy the Dip in Paypal Stock Because $100 Is the Next Stop.  Also an article recently published on The Motley Fool makes a compelling argument for growth on the back of rising popularity and potential for PayPal’s app Venmo.  In the article, the company’s CEO was quoted as saying the P2P payment app could potentially surpass PayPal’s payment system in profitability – The Big News in PayPal’s Fourth-Quarter Update.

Aside from chart patterns, a significant appeal to PYPL is that it touched record highs this month, fully erasing the prior decline.  Not only that, it was the first IBD Top 50 listed stock to do so while most have only recovered a part of the fall that took place late in 2018.  In this context, it is certainly an outperformer.  Support is found at $87.55 as a horizontal level there has previously acted as both support and resistance dating back to June last year.  Note that this level was a major barrier in the fourth quarter.  On a weekly chart, the 20-week moving average was the equivalent barrier for Q4.  It currently falls near $85.50 to provide additional support in the event of further near-term downside.  Just above it, the 50-day moving average is found, currently at $86.14.

[caption id="attachment_2329" align="alignnone" width="300"]PYPL Chartl February 2019 PYPL Chartl February 2019[/caption]

*source Tradingview.com

If you agree there's further upside ahead for PYPL, consider this trade which is a bet that the stock will continue to advance over the next six weeks, or at least not decline very much.

Buy To Open PYPL 15MAR19 87.5 Puts (PYPL190315P87.5)
Sell To Open PYPL 15MAR19 90 Puts (PYPL190315P90) for a credit of $0.95 (selling a vertical)

This price was $0.02 less than the mid-point of the option spread when PYPL was trading near $90.  Unless the stock rallies quickly from here, you should be able to get close to this amount.

Your commission on this trade will only be $2.50 per spread (the rate charged by thinkorswim for Terry’s Tips’ subscribers).  Each contract would then yield $92.50 and your broker would charge a $250 maintenance fee, making your investment $157.50 ($250 – $92.50).  If PYPL closes at any price above $90 on March 15, both options would expire worthless, and your return on the spread would be 59% (552% annualized).

Changes to Investor’s Business Daily (IBD) Top 50 This Week:

[caption id="attachment_2330" align="alignnone" width="196"]IBD Underlying Updates February 1, 2019 IBD Underlying Updates February 1, 2019[/caption]

We have found that the Investor’s Business Daily Top 50 List has been a reliable source of stocks that are likely to move higher in the short run.  Recent additions to the list might be particularly good choices for this strategy, and deletions might be good indicators for exiting a position that you might already have on that stock.

As with all investments, you should only make option trades with money that you can truly afford to lose.

Happy trading,

Terry

Making 36%

Making 36% – A Duffer's Guide to Breaking Par in the Market Every Year in Good Years and Bad

This book may not improve your golf game, but it might change your financial situation so that you will have more time for the greens and fairways (and sometimes the woods).

Learn why Dr. Allen believes that the 10K Strategy is less risky than owning stocks or mutual funds, and why it is especially appropriate for your IRA.

Order Now

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TD Ameritrade

This Chicago brokerage firm with the unlikely name thinkorswim, Inc. by TD Ameritrade is considered by many to be the best option-friendly broker. For openers, they have extremely good analytic software and their option trading platform is exceptional. Thinkorswim Mobile has been called the best mobile app in the industry. In 2017, TD Ameritrade received 4 stars out of 5 in the annual Barron`s* Best Online Brokers Survey. TD Ameritrade was tops as an online broker for long-term investors and for novices. The company is the only broker that receives the highest 5.0 score for research amenities among all firms participated in the ranking last year.

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