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Tip 5 – Shoot for the Stars Strategy

In spite of the odds against winning, many people seem to like to invest in individual stocks. It is sort of like picking horses at the race track (and often for similar sound selection reasons, like the reputation of the trainer or the jockey or the color of his silks, or the horse’s name or his recent race record, or what the touts are touting).

To our way of thinking, picking individual stocks is a lot more like gambling than carrying out a prudent option strategy such as the 10K Strategy .  But picking individual stocks is easier, and a whole lot more fun for many people.

If you insist on picking individual companies, there are two good ways to use an options strategy to multiply your gains if you are lucky enough to pick a winner.  First, the 10K Strategy, our favorite strategy, is best if you merely like a particular company.  Second, if you really LOVE the company, you might use the Shoot Strategy.

At Terry’s Tips, we conduct options strategies based on several individual companies we feel good about.  For example, in October 2013 we set up a portfolio based on Nike (NKE), a company we liked.  If we had really loved NKE, we would have used the Shoot Strategy.  We were lucky to have picked a good company. We started with $4000 in the portfolio (set up in an actual brokerage account with no other positions) when NKE was trading at $63.  By the end of November 2014, NKE had surged to $99, up 57%.  Our portfolio was then worth $11,435, a gain of 186%.  Our options portfolio had performed more than 3 times as well as the stock had gained.

If we had loved the stock at the outset, rather than just liking it, we would have used the Shoot Strategy instead of the 10K Strategy, and we would have gained even more. This time around. the Shoot Strategy would have done much better.  On the other hand, we felt pretty good about almost tripling our investment in 16 months while taking less risk than is involved in the Shoot Strategy.

While we don’t use the Shoot Strategy in any of our actual portfolios, we show you exactly how to do it if you have a company you really love.  It is more risky than our 10K Strategy but it should outperform if the stock actually does move up a lot.  If the stock stays flat, the Shoot Strategy will usually about break even. On the other hand, if the stock stays flat, the 10K Strategy is designed to make a nice gain.

The Shoot Strategy is outlined in my White Paper as the Shoot for the Stars Strategy.  Les Brown said “Shoot for the moon.  Even if you miss, you’ll land among the stars.  And Confucius said long ago “If you shoot for the stars and hit the moon, it's OK. But you've got to shoot for something. A lot of people don't even shoot.”

This is how the Shoot Strategy works -

1.  If the stock goes up, the Shoot Strategy will make money.  The gain will be considerably greater than the percentage gain would have been if the stock had been bought instead of the LEAPS.

2. If the stock stays flat, your account value will be about flat as well, or a small gain might result.  Since you are collecting slightly more than the average monthly decay of the LEAPS each month (until they have only a few months of remaining life) you might often make a small gain.  However, even a small gain is more than you would have made if you had bought the stock and it doesn’t go up a penny.

3. If the stock falls, a loss will usually result just like it would if you had bought the stock, and the loss will likely be a greater percentage loss than if the stock itself had been purchased instead.  However, in many cases, the loss could be reduced (or eliminated) if the stock fell during those months when our Trading Rules call for selling in-the-money calls.

General Trading Rules for executing the Shoot Strategy:

Pick a stock you believe is headed higher (we suggest using www.magicformulainvesting.com. as a guide – see discussion below).

1. Buy slightly in-the-money or out-of-the-money call LEAPS.  At least two LEAPS must be purchased.  If your budget does not warrant buying at least two true LEAPS, shorter-term calls can be purchased as long as they have at least six months of remaining life.
         Calculate the average monthly decay of the LEAPS (time premium divided by the
         number of remaining months).

2.  Sell enough slightly out-of-the-money current month calls to cover the average monthly decay.

3. Near or at expiration, roll over the short calls to the next month (if they are in the money), again selling enough out-of-the-money contracts to cover the average monthly decay.  If the expiring calls are out-of-the-money, let them expire worthless and sell the next month out, as above.

4. If short-term calls that have been sold become in the money (i.e., the stock has gone up), they must be bought back during expiration week, and the amount paid must be added to the remaining decay of the LEAPS and a new (higher) average monthly decay bogey established based on the number of remaining months of the LEAPS.

There are a number of other Trading Rules that have proved to be successful for the Shoot Strategy, including how to change tactics if the stock should fall, how to adjust which calls to sell during seasonally positive (and negative) months of the year, and the best time to sell the original LEAPS.  These important additional Trading Rules are included in the White Paper that comes with the Terry’s Tips Insider service.

Deciding Which Companies to Buy:


The best single source we have found for selecting individual companies is the Magic Formula system outlined in the small book by Joel Greenblat called “The Little Book That Beats the Market” and is available online at www.magicformulainvesting.com

Rather than relying entirely on the Magic Formula, it might be even better to select individual stocks that also rank high at Investors Business Daily (IBD), Value Line, and by composite analyst rankings.  While we prefer the 10K Strategy because of its lower risk, using the Shoot Strategy offers considerably higher returns than merely buying the stock, and if you carry it out correctly, you can sometimes make money with the Shoot Strategy even if the stock stays flat.

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Terry's Tips Stock Options Trading Blog

September 20, 2021

A Salesforce to be Reckoned With


As
its ticker symbol implies, Salesforce.com (CRM) provides cloud solutions for
customer relationship management needs. CRM reported earnings in late August
that blew away expectations on both the top and bottom lines. The report was
met by the usual round of target price increases that reached as high as $340
(CRM closed at $260 on Friday).





The
stock gapped higher after the report and extended as much as 5.5% higher the
next day, eventually closing with a 2.5% gain. But the shares then sagged,
joining the rest of the market in the early-September swoon. In fact, CRM fell
more than 8% from its post-earnings high.





But the shares appeared to find a bottom last week, thanks to the support of the 50-day moving average. Since turning higher in May, the 50-day has supported pullbacks in July and August. CRM has been stepping higher since a low in early March, putting in a series of higher highs and lows in a rally that has covered nearly 30%. This trade is relying on this trendline support holding for the next six weeks, as the short 250 put of our credit spread is just below the 50-day.









If you agree that CRM will stay above the 50-day moving
average (blue line in chart), consider the following trade that relies on the
stock remaining above 250 (red line in chart) through expiration in six weeks.





Buy to Open CRM 29Oct 245 put
(CRM211029P245)

Sell to Open CRM 29Oct 250 put (CRM211029P250) for a credit
of $1.10 (selling a vertical)





This credit is $0.02 less
than the mid-point of the option spread
when CRM was trading at $260. Unless the stock rallies quickly from here, you
should be able to get close to this amount. Your commission on this trade will
be only $1.30 per spread.  Each spread
would then yield $108.70. This trade reduces your buying power by $500 and makes
your net investment $391.30 ($500 – $108.70). 
If CRM closes above $250 on October 29, both options will expire worthless and your return on the spread would
be 27% ($108.70 / $391.30).


September 13, 2021

Going Once, Going Twice … Sold on CPRT


Going Once, Going Twice … Sold on CPRT





Copart (CPRT) provides online auction and vehicle remarketing services in the U.S. and several other countries. On Wednesday, the company reported Q4 earnings that easily beat on the top and bottom lines. Used car prices are soaring and CPRT is positioned perfectly to leverage the market. Analysts seem to agree, as CPRT received several target price increases that ranged up to $165 (CPRT closed at $143 on Friday). Despite the positive news, the stock fell as much as 5% on Thursday before closing 2% lower. However, CPRT gained more than a percent on Friday amid a down market.









The stock has been in rally mode since late March, gaining more than 30%. The 50-day moving average has been instrumental in guiding the uptrend, containing pullbacks in May, June and August. The trendline appears to be doing its job again, as it supported this week’s post-earnings drop. This trade is relying on this support holding for the next five weeks as the short 140 put of our credit spread is just below the 50-day.





If
you agree that CPRT will stay above the 50-day moving average (red line in
chart), consider the following trade that relies on the stock remaining above
140 (blue line in chart) through expiration in five weeks.





Buy
to Open CPRT 15Oct 135 put (CPRT211015P135)

Sell to Open CPRT 15Oct
140 put (CPRT211015P140) for a credit of $1.20 (selling a vertical)





This
credit is $0.05 less than the mid-point
of the option spread when CPRT was trading at $143. Unless the stock rallies
quickly from here, you should be able to get close to this amount.





Your
commission on this trade will be only $1.30 per spread.  Each spread would then yield $118.70. This
trade reduces your buying power by $500 and makes your net investment $381.30
($500 – $118.70).  If CPRT closes above
$140 on October 15, both options will expire worthless
and your return on the spread would be 31% ($118.70 / $381.30).


August 31, 2021

Get INTU This Trade


Software
developer (QuickBooks, TurboTax) Intuit (INTU) reported earnings on Aug. 24
that handily beat estimates on all fronts. Earnings came in at $1.97 per share,
topping the analyst forecast by 24%, while quarterly revenue of $2.56 billion
beat the estimate by 10%. The company also raised its quarterly and annual
revenue and earnings guidance above expectations. To top it off, INTU raised
its dividend and approved a new $2 billion repurchase authorization.





The
Street clearly loved the report, as the stock was hit with several large target
price increases (one raised the price 27%). The average new target price after
these raises was around the $640 mark, which is 13% above INTU’s closing price
on Friday.





The stock price took the news and target increases in stride, though, with no change on Thursday after the report. On Friday, the stock resumed its huge rally with a 2.4% gain. INTU is up nearly 50% in 2021, with most of that gain coming in the past 3-1/2 months. The shares have been riding along their 20-day moving average, a trendline that has not allowed one daily close below it since mid-May. The 20-day is currently at 541 but should cross above the 550 level in less than two weeks at its current pace. This is also the site of the short put strike of our credit spread.









If
you agree that INTU will continue its rally along the 20-day moving average,
consider the following trade that relies on the stock remaining above 550
through expiration in seven weeks.





Buy
to Open INTU 15Oct 540 put (INTU211015P540)

Sell to Open INTU 15Oct
550 put (INTU211015P550) for a credit of $2.80 (selling a vertical)





This
credit is $0.05 less than the mid-point
of the option spread when INTU was trading at $566. Unless the stock rallies
quickly from here, you should be able to get close to this amount.





Your
commission on this trade will be only $1.30 per spread.  Each spread would then yield $278.70. This
trade reduces your buying power by $1,000 and makes your net investment $721.30
($1000 – $278.70).  If INTU closes above
$550 on October 15, both options will expire worthless
and your return on the spread would be 39% ($278.70 / $721.30).


Making 36%

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