Many financial advisors and more than a dozen websites advocate
writing (selling) covered calls as a sound investment strategy.
Thousands of subscribers pay millions of dollars to get advice on profitable
covered calls to write.
I believe they are wasting their money. Writing covered calls only
limits the potential gain you might enjoy.
Let’s take an example. You buy 100 shares of XYZ for $80 and write
(sell) an at-the-money two-month call ($80 strike price) for $4.00. If
the stock stays flat, you will earn 5% on your money for the period
(plus collect a dividend if there is one). If you can do this six times a
year (write a two-month call six times), you will earn 30% annually
(less commissions); or so goes the promise.
(In the last chapter we showed that selling calls against a one-year
option rather than stock results in a hypothetical 300% gain if the
stock stays absolutely flat, or ten times the amount you could earn by
writing calls against the stock.)
In this covered call-writing example, 30% is the maximum amount
you can earn. No matter how high XYZ goes in price, you can never
earn more than 30%. The bottom line truth is that you will NEVER
earn that 30%. The reason is that no stock price ever stays the same.
If the stock goes up by $5 in the first 60 days, you will either lose
your stock (through exercise), or more likely, you will buy back the
call you wrote, paying $5, and losing $1 on the call (but making $5
on the increase in the price of the stock). So for the first 60 days, you
actually made a 5% net gain ($4 net gain on a $80 stock).
Presumably, you then sell another 60-day at-the-money call (now
at the $85 strike) and collect perhaps $4.25. Then the stock falls back
to $80. In this time period, you gain $4.25 from selling the call but
you lose $5 in stock value for a net loss of $.75.
Your gains on the calls you wrote now total $3.25 for a 120-day
period (you gained $4.00 in the first 60-day period and lost $.75 in
hoped would earn you 30% for the year).
At this rate (four months of activity), your annual return will be
$9.75, or 12.2% on the original $80 stock. Commissions on six sales
of calls over the year will considerably reduce this return — to 10%
or so. Not a bad return, but certainly not 30%. And it’s an awful lot of
work for a 10% return.
For a full explanation of an option strategy that is designed to outperform writing covered calls, check out Dr. Terry Allen’s Free Report on calendar spreads.
Target (TGT) reported earnings before the bell on Wednesday that beat estimates on both revenue and profits. The company also expects its fiscal Q4 comparable sales growth to be higher than previous forecasts. Moreover, TGT claimed the supply chain mess has not been an issue - store shelves are full and ready for the holiday buying onslaught.
Analysts were mostly bullish on the report, giving TGT several target price increases (there was one lower price). One went as high as $350, a 38% premium to Friday’s closing price. The stock price was not rewarded, however. The shares dropped 4.7% on Wednesday and slid further the rest of the week. However, this was a common theme among several retailers, including Walmart (WMT). In fact, the overall retail sector was lower for the week.
The pullback dropped the shares to just above their 50-day moving average (blue line in chart). This trade is thus a bet that TGT will regain its footing and stay above the 50-day as holiday sales numbers – that are predicted to be robust – start rolling in. The short 245 strike (red line) of our put credit spread is below the 50-day, relying on trendline support to hold through expiration.
If you agree that TGT will stay atop its 50-day moving average line in chart), consider the following trade that relies on the stock remaining above 245 (through expiration in six weeks.
Buy to Open TGT 31Dec 240 put (TGT211231P240)
Sell to Open TGT 31Dec 245 put (TGT211231P245) for a credit of $1.60 (selling a vertical)
This credit is $0.02 less than the mid-point of the option spread when TGT was trading around $251. Unless the stock rises quickly from here, you should be able to get close to this amount.
Your commission on this trade will be only $1.30 per spread. Each spread would then yield $158.70. This trade reduces your buying power by $500 and makes your net investment $341.30 ($500 – $158.70) for one spread. If TGT closes above $245 on December 31, both options will expire worthless and your return on the spread would be 46% ($158.70/$341.30).
Affirm Holdings (AFRM) provides a platform for point-of-sale payments for consumers and merchants. In August, AFRM announced a partnership with Amazon.com (AMZN) to offer flexible payment solutions to customers with AMZN purchases above $50. AFRM reported earnings on Wednesday after the bell that missed on profits but beat on revenue. The company also raised sales guidance.
Wall Street apparently forgave the earnings miss, largely because it was not clear if the discrepancy used comparable numbers. Moreover, AFRM said its AMZN relationship as a buy-now-pay-later service was exclusive. Clearly, analysts were looking at AFRM’s growth prospects, as the company was greeted with several target price upgrades that reached as high as $185 (the stock closed at $149 on Friday).
After a nasty, four-day 21% plunge heading into earnings that pulled the stock to its 50-day moving average, the stock rebounded 13.7% the day after the earnings news. Given the earnings rebound, analyst target upgrades and deal with AMZN, we are going with a bullish trade on AFRM that keys on the stock maintaining its three-month rally and staying atop its 50-day moving average (blue line in chart). The short put strike of our credit spread sits at $133 (red line in chart), just below the 50-day.
If you agree that AFRM will continue its uptrend and stay atop its 50-day moving average line in chart), consider the following trade that relies on the stock remaining above $133 (through expiration in seven weeks.
Buy to Open AFRM 31Dec 128 put (AFRM211231P128)
Sell to Open AFRM 31Dec 133 put (AFRM211231P133) for a credit of $1.85 (selling a vertical)
This credit is $0.05 less than the mid-point of the option spread when AFRM was trading at $149. Unless the stock rises quickly from here, you should be able to get close to this amount.
Your commission on this trade will be only $1.30 per spread. Each spread would then yield $183.70. This trade reduces your buying power by $500 and makes your net investment $316.30 ($500 – $183.70) for one spread. If AFRM closes above $133 on December 31, both options will expire worthless and your return on the spread would be 58% ($183.70/$316.30).
MetLife (MET) won’t get anyone’s juices flowing. It’s frankly a rather boring insurance and financial services company that’s been around for 158 years. But who cares … if we can make money on a trade, right?
MET reported earnings last week that beat estimates on the top and bottom lines. Hardly anyone noticed. Analysts were silent. There were no stories other than a dry listing of its key performance numbers. And the stock fell 2% the next day. Ho hum.
But MET is up 36% for the year, which is well ahead of the S&P 500’s 25%. After a swoon in June and July, the stock has been grinding steadily higher along the dual support of its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. The key is the 50-day (blue line in chart), which has allowed just three daily closes below it during the past three months. This trendline, which is rising slightly, sits at $61.10, which is above the short strike of our put spread trade. Thus, MET would have to pierce this support to hurt this trade. And the 200-day (red line in chart) sits at $61 to provide another layer of support. The last time MET closed below the 200-day was more than a year ago.
If you agree that MET will continue its slow ascent and stay atop its 50-day moving average line in chart), consider the following trade that relies on the stock remaining above $62.50 (through expiration in six weeks.
Buy to Open MET 17Dec 60 put (MET211217P60)
Sell to Open MET 17Dec 62.5 put (MET211217P62.5) for a credit of $0.75 (selling a vertical)
This credit is $0.04 less than the mid-point of the option spread when MET was trading at $64. Unless the stock rises quickly from here, you should be able to get close to this amount.
Your commission on this trade will be only $1.30 per spread. Each spread would then yield $73.70. This trade reduces your buying power by $250 and makes your net investment $176.30 ($250 – $73.70) for one spread. If MET closes above $62.50 on December 17, both options will expire worthless and your return on the spread would be 42% ($73.70/$176.30).
Making 36% – A Duffer's Guide to Breaking Par in the Market Every Year in Good Years and Bad
This book may not improve your golf game, but it might change your financial situation so that you will have more time for the greens and fairways (and sometimes the woods).
Learn why Dr. Allen believes that the 10K Strategy is less risky than owning stocks or mutual funds, and why it is especially appropriate for your IRA.
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Options are not suitable for all investors as the special risks inherent to options trading my expose investors to potentially rapid and substantial losses. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options before investing in options
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