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Archive for February, 2021

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Booming as Chip Shortage Continues

Monday, February 22nd, 2021

TSM is in a sweet spot. It’s one of the few manufacturers of chips amid a worldwide shortage, especially in the automotive industry. TSM is a true manufacturer that provides chips to several semiconductor companies that have turned to outsourcing their production needs.

The stock is already up 25% this year as it rides along the support of its 20-day moving average. In fact, the stock has closed just one day below this trendline since early November. The shares pulled back this week but found support once again at the 20-day on Friday. With strong support and a full production pipeline, TSM seems unstoppable. And we’re entering a bullish position on a pullback.

TSM Chart February 2021- Rally continues

TSM Chart February 2021

If you agree TSM’s rally will continue, consider the following trade that relies on the stock remaining above $135 through expiration in four weeks.

Buy to Open TSM 19MAR21 130 Put (TSM210319P130)
Sell to Open TSM 19MAR21 135 Put (TSM210319P135) for a credit of $2.00 (selling a vertical)

This credit is $0.05 less than the mid-point of the option spread when TSM was trading near $137.  Unless the stock rallies quickly from here, you should be able to get close to this amount.

Your commission on this trade will be only $1.30 per spread.  Each spread would then yield $198.70. This reduces your buying power by $500 and makes your investment $301.30 ($500 – $198.70).  If TSM closes above $135 on March 19, both options will expire worthless, and your return on the spread would be 66% ($198.70 / $301.30), or 857% annualized.

As with all investments, you should only make option trades with money that you can truly afford to lose.

Happy trading,

Terry

Cloudflare (NET) Ready to Resume Uptrend after Strong Earnings Report

Monday, February 15th, 2021

Cloudflare (NET), a cloud platform and cybersecurity services company, reported earnings after the bell on Thursday that beat analyst estimates for revenue, earnings and guidance. In response, several analysts raised their price targets to a range between $88 and $105 (the stock closed at $85.95 on Friday).

Despite the positive earnings and target price increases, the stock dropped nearly 6%. But it stayed above its rising 50-day moving average, a trendline that has supported the stock throughout a yearlong rally that has seen the stock more than quadruple. With the positive earnings, price target increases and technical support in place, the rally should continue.

NET Chart February 2021

NET Chart February 2021

If you agree NET’s rally will continue, consider the following trade that relies on the stock remaining above $85 through expiration in five weeks.

Buy to Open NET 19MAR21 80 Puts (NET210319P80)
Sell to Open NET 19MAR21 85 Puts (NET210319P85) for a credit of $2.35 (selling a vertical)

This credit is $0.05 less than the mid-point of the option spread when NET was trading near $86.  Unless the stock rallies quickly from here, you should be able to get close to this amount.

Your commission on this trade will be only $1.30 per spread.  Each spread would then yield $233.70. This trade reduces your buying power by $500 and makes your investment $266.30 ($500 – $233.70).  If NET closes above $85 on March 19, both options will expire worthless, and your return on the spread would be 88% ($233.70 / $266.30), or 915% annualized.

As with all investments, you should only make option trades with money that you can truly afford to lose.

Happy trading,

Terry

ServiceNow (NOW) Shows a Renewal of Upward Momentum After Breaking to an All-Time High

Monday, February 8th, 2021

This week we are looking at another of the Investor’s Business Daily (IBD) Top 50 List companies.  We use this list in one of our options portfolios to spot outperforming stocks and place option spreads that take advantage of the momentum.

ServiceNow pushed upward to a fresh all-time high in the past week. The following two articles outline some of the reasons that are driving the growth – ServiceNow: The Workflow Revolution Is Happening and ServiceNow delivers strong Q4 as it expands wallet share.

Technicals

The monthly candle for NOW in January hinted of a potential pullback but the recent surge to new highs indicates otherwise. The upward trend remains intact for this stock and the expectation is that dips will be bought over the near-term. A rising trendline that dates to May last year held the decline last month where a small consolidation took place showing that buyers are ready to step in on dips. Near-term support is seen at the December high of $566.75.  There is momentum behind the move in the past week which suggest the rally will continue although it would not be surprising to see brief period of sideways trading to work off overbought conditions on the smaller time frames.

NOW Chart February 2021

NOW Chart February 2021

If you agree there’s further upside ahead for NOW, consider this trade which relies on the stock remaining above $590 through the expiration in five weeks.

Buy To Open NOW 12MAR21 587.5 Puts (NOW210312P587.5)
Sell To Open NOW 12MAR21 590 Puts (NOW210312P590) for a credit of $1.38 (selling a vertical)

This credit is $0.02 less than the mid-point of the option spread when NOW was trading near $590.  Unless the stock rallies quickly from here, you should be able to get close to this amount.

Your commission on this trade will be only $1.30 per spread.  Each spread would then yield $136.70. This reduces your buying power by $250 and makes your investment $113.30 ($250 – $136.70).  If NOW closes at any price above $590 on March 12, both options will expire worthless, and your return on the spread would be 121% ($136.70 / $113.30), or 1380% annualized.

Changes to Investor’s Business Daily (IBD) Top 50 This Week:

IBD Underlying Updates February 6, 2021

IBD Underlying Updates February 6, 2021

We have found that the Investor’s Business Daily Top 50 List has been a reliable source of stocks that are likely to move higher in the short run.  Recent additions to the list might be particularly good choices for this strategy, and deletions might be good indicators for exiting a position that you might already have on that stock.

As with all investments, you should only make option trades with money that you can truly afford to lose.

Happy trading,

Terry

Wedbush Raises Price Target for Microsoft (MSFT) to $270

Monday, February 1st, 2021

This week we are looking at another of the Investor’s Business Daily (IBD) Top 50 List companies.  We use this list in one of our options portfolios to spot outperforming stocks and place option spreads that take advantage of the momentum.

Wedbush recently raised their MSFT price target to $270 from $260 and said they see potential for it to reach as high as $300. The following two article discuss the price upgrade and reasons why MSFT appears poised to grow – Microsoft will leap another 20% as cloud-computing strength drives strong earnings, Wedbush says and Microsoft: Still Not Fully Priced, Here’s Why.

Technicals

From a technical perspective, MSFT recently posted a bullish breakout above a horizontal resistance level at $225. This same level had capped rallies three times in the fourth quarter of 2020 and is seen as strong support in the event the stock pulls back further from here. There is also support at $231.15 which marks the late August high.

MSFT Chart February 2021 - Undervalued

MSFT Chart February 2021

If you agree there’s further upside ahead for MSFT, consider this trade which relies on the stock remaining above $230 through the expiration in five weeks.

Buy To Open MSFT 05MAR21 225 Puts (MSFT210305P225)
Sell To Open MSFT 05MAR21 230 Puts (MSFT210305P230) for a credit of $1.73 (selling a vertical)

This credit is $0.02 less than the mid-point of the option spread when MSFT was trading near $232.  Unless the stock rallies quickly from here, you should be able to get close to this amount.

Your commission on this trade will be only $1.30 per spread.  Each spread would then yield $171.70. This reduces your buying power by $500 and makes your investment $328.30 ($500 – $171.70).  If MSFT closes at any price above $230 on March 5, both options will expire worthless, and your return on the spread would be 52% ($171.70 / $328.30), or 593% annualized.

Changes to Investor’s Business Daily (IBD) Top 50 This Week:

IBD Underlying Updates January 30, 2021

IBD Underlying Updates January 30, 2021

We have found that the Investor’s Business Daily Top 50 List has been a reliable source of stocks that are likely to move higher in the short run.  Recent additions to the list might be particularly good choices for this strategy, and deletions might be good indicators for exiting a position that you might already have on that stock.

As with all investments, you should only make option trades with money that you can truly afford to lose.

Happy trading,

Terry

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Success Stories

I have been trading the equity markets with many different strategies for over 40 years. Terry Allen's strategies have been the most consistent money makers for me. I used them during the 2008 melt-down, to earn over 50% annualized return, while all my neighbors were crying about their losses.

~ John Collins