from the desk of Dr. Terry F Allen

Skip navigation

Member Login  |  Contact Us  |  Sign Up

802-877-8330

Archive for October, 2019

Visa (V) Regains Momentum Following Earnings Report

Monday, October 28th, 2019

Visa’s earnings report in the past week has boosted sentiment among analysts. The following two articles include two upward price target revisions and a case for why the stock can continue to strengthen from here – Visa Analysts Encouraged By Q4 Results, 2020 Guidance and Visa stock gains after forecast paints a picture of continued strength in 2020.

The rally that followed the earnings report has lifted Visa’s stock back above all of the commonly looked at moving averages (20, 50 & 100-day). What’s appealing about V is the long-term trend and that dips have been shallow over the year which points to strong demand. There was a correction lower since early September, but the post-earnings upward momentum suggests the stock may have resumed within its broader uptrend.

Visa Chart October 2019 vertical options spread

Visa Chart October 2019

If you agree there’s further upside ahead for V, consider this trade which is a bet that the stock will continue to advance over the next five weeks, or at least not decline very much.

Buy To Open V 29NOV19 175 Puts (V191129P175)
Sell To Open V 29NOV19 177.5 Puts (V191129P177.5) for a credit of $0.99 (selling a vertical)

This price was $0.02 less than the mid-point of the option spread when V was trading near $178.  Unless the stock rallies quickly from here, you should be able to get close to this amount.

Your commission on this trade will only be $1.30 per spread.  Each contract would then yield $97.05 and your broker would charge a $250 maintenance fee, making your investment $152.30 ($250 – $97.05).  If V closes at any price above $177.5 on November 29, both options would expire worthless, and your return on the spread would be 63% (730% annualized).

Changes to Investor’s Business Daily (IBD) Top 50 This Week:

IBD Underlying Updates October 26, 2019

IBD Underlying Updates October 26, 2019

We have found that the Investor’s Business Daily Top 50 List has been a reliable source of stocks that are likely to move higher in the short run.  Recent additions to the list might be particularly good choices for this strategy, and deletions might be good indicators for exiting a position that you might already have on that stock.

As with all investments, you should only make option trades with money that you can truly afford to lose.

Happy trading,

Terry

Synchrony Financial (SYF) Gets a Boost From its Latest Earnings Report

Monday, October 21st, 2019

Synchrony Financial rallied to a two-month high in the past week and several analysts think it can continue higher. Here is what the IBD had to say about the stock – This GE Spinoff Nears Buy Point On Strong Earnings. Also take a look at the following article which discusses Warren Buffett’s stake in the company – Here is What Hedge Funds Think About Synchrony Financial (SYF).

SYF recently regained both its 50 and 100 day moving averages which signals the broader bullish trend has potentially restarted. Of the two, the 100-day moving average was particularly strong resistance throughout September. For this reason, the indicator is now seen as strong support on near-term dips. The break above the 100-day moving average also means a break above the September high which in turn has set a successions of higher highs and higher lows. Another way to look at it is as a range breakout since the stock was essentially consolidating sideways above its 200-week moving average for the past two months or so.

SYF Chart October 2019 vertical options spread

SYF Chart October 2019

If you agree there’s further upside ahead for SYF, consider this trade which is a bet that the stock will continue to advance over the next five weeks, or at least a little bit.

Buy To Open SYF 22NOV19 31.5 Puts (SYF191122P31.5)
Sell To Open SYF 22NOV19 34.5 Puts (SYF191122P34.5) for a credit of $0.93 (selling a vertical)

This price was $0.02 less than the mid-point of the option spread when SYF was trading near $34.50.  Unless the stock rallies quickly from here, you should be able to get close to this amount.

Your commission on this trade will only be $1.30 per spread.  Each contract would then yield $91.70 and your broker would charge a $300 maintenance fee, making your investment $208.30 ($300 – $91.70).  If SYF closes at any price above $34.50 on November 22, both options would expire worthless, and your return on the spread would be 44% (502% annualized).

Changes to Investor’s Business Daily (IBD) Top 50 This Week:

IBD Underlying Updates October 19, 2019

IBD Underlying Updates October 19, 2019

We have found that the Investor’s Business Daily Top 50 List has been a reliable source of stocks that are likely to move higher in the short run.  Recent additions to the list might be particularly good choices for this strategy, and deletions might be good indicators for exiting a position that you might already have on that stock.

As with all investments, you should only make option trades with money that you can truly afford to lose.

Happy trading,

Terry

Salesforce.com (CRM) Offers Value After the Correction

Monday, October 14th, 2019

Salesforce.com’s stock price has corrected lower for the past few months which seems to offer value when considering where analyst price targets are set. Take a look at the following article which discusses an average target of $186.97 –  Investors Jump Off The Fence: salesforce.com, inc., (NYSE: CRM). Also, Jeffries recently reiterated their buy call with a target of $171. Although a bit conservative compared to the average, it still represents potential for a 14% rally.

There are three main things to consider from a technical perspective. The most important is that the stock is bouncing from its 20-month moving average. This is an indicator it has not traded below on a sustained basis in nearly three years. Further, there is a rising trendline in place as well as a horizontal level. The trendline is drawn connecting the low from late last year with the low that printed in mid-August. There has been a bullish reaction so far from when the stock tested the trendline early in the month. The horizontal level falls near $144 and has been respected as both support and resistance over the last year and currently falls near the trendline to create a confluence.

CRM Chart October 2019 Salesforce.com vertical options spread

CRM Chart October 2019

If you agree there’s further upside ahead for CRM, consider this trade which is a bet that the stock will continue to advance over the next five weeks, or at least not decline very much.

Buy To Open CRM 15NOV19 145 Puts (CRM191115P145)
Sell To Open CRM 15NOV19 150 Puts (CRM191115P150) for a credit of $1.99 (selling a vertical)

This price was $0.02 less than the mid-point of the option spread when CRM was trading near $150.  Unless the stock rallies quickly from here, you should be able to get close to this amount.

Your commission on this trade will only be $1.30 per spread.  Each contract would then yield $197.70 and your broker would charge a $500 maintenance fee, making your investment $302.30 ($500 – $197.70).  If CRM closes at any price above $150 on November 15, both options would expire worthless, and your return on the spread would be 65% (741% annualized).

Changes to Investor’s Business Daily (IBD) Top 50 This Week:

IBD Underlying Updates October 12, 2019

IBD Underlying Updates October 12, 2019

We have found that the Investor’s Business Daily Top 50 List has been a reliable source of stocks that are likely to move higher in the short run.  Recent additions to the list might be particularly good choices for this strategy, and deletions might be good indicators for exiting a position that you might already have on that stock.

As with all investments, you should only make option trades with money that you can truly afford to lose.

Happy trading,

Terry

Copart (CPRT) Is a Buy on Dips

Monday, October 7th, 2019

Recent news articles on Copart suggest the stock is well positioned for further gains. Check out these two articles for the reasoning behind the sentiment – Why Copart (CPRT) Stock Might be a Great Pick and Is Copart (CPRT) a Great Growth Stock?

The main thing CPRT has going for it, from a technical perspective, is the upward momentum. The stock has rallied with strength ever since the 50-day moving average crossed above the 100-day near the start of the year. Dips have been shallow and promptly bought up and the stock is up nearly 70% on the year. The dip in the past week was met with strong buying from the 20-week moving average which has resulted in the print of a bullish reversal candlestick on a weekly chart. CPRT is certainly an outperformer and it seems the stock only needs a small push to break to fresh record highs.

CPRT Chart October 2019 vertical options spread

CPRT Chart October 2019

If you agree there’s further upside ahead for CPRT, consider this trade which is a bet that the stock will continue to advance over the next six weeks, or at least not decline very much.

Buy To Open CPRT 15NOV19 75 Puts (CPRT191115P75)
Sell To Open CPRT 15NOV19 80 Puts (CPRT191115P80) for a credit of $1.58 (selling a vertical)

This price was $0.02 less than the mid-point of the option spread when CPRT was trading near $80.  Unless the stock rallies quickly from here, you should be able to get close to this amount.

Your commission on this trade will only be $1.30 per spread.  Each contract would then yield $156.70 and your broker would charge a $500 maintenance fee, making your investment $343.30 ($500 – $156.71).  If CPRT closes at any price above $80 on November 15, both options would expire worthless, and your return on the spread would be 45% (429% annualized).

Changes to Investor’s Business Daily (IBD) Top 50 This Week:

IBD Underlying Updates October 5, 2019

IBD Underlying Updates October 5, 2019

We have found that the Investor’s Business Daily Top 50 List has been a reliable source of stocks that are likely to move higher in the short run.  Recent additions to the list might be particularly good choices for this strategy, and deletions might be good indicators for exiting a position that you might already have on that stock.

As with all investments, you should only make option trades with money that you can truly afford to lose.

Happy trading,

Terry

Making 36%

Making 36% — A Duffer's Guide to Breaking Par in the Market Every Year in Good Years and Bad

This book may not improve your golf game, but it might change your financial situation so that you will have more time for the greens and fairways (and sometimes the woods).

Learn why Dr. Allen believes that the 10K Strategy is less risky than owning stocks or mutual funds, and why it is especially appropriate for your IRA.

Order Now

Success Stories

I have been trading the equity markets with many different strategies for over 40 years. Terry Allen's strategies have been the most consistent money makers for me. I used them during the 2008 melt-down, to earn over 50% annualized return, while all my neighbors were crying about their losses.

~ John Collins