from the desk of Dr. Terry F Allen

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Posts Tagged ‘SPY’

Netflix is Ready to Break to a Fresh Record High

Monday, June 22nd, 2020

This week we are looking at another of the Investor’s Business Daily (IBD) Top 50 List companies.  We use this list in one of our options portfolios to spot outperforming stocks and place option spreads that take advantage of the momentum.

Netflix closed the past week out strong and looks ready to continue the upward momentum. Take a look at what the following analysts had to say about the stock – Netflix ‘Impervious’ To Coronavirus, Recession: Imperial Capital and Netflix Stock: An Easy 2x

Technicals

NFLX falls in a group of stocks that were quick to recover from the sell-off earlier in the year.The stock has been consolidating within a range since mid-April but the upward momentum seen over the last week or so, combined with a strong weekly close, tilts the odds towards an upward break, in line with the broader trend. To the downside, $416 is considered to be a major support level and has held the stock higher on a weekly close basis. This same level previously served as resistance, holding NFLX lower in 2018. A break above $455 would signal a bullish continuation that stands to attract more buyers and a potential acceleration in momentum.

NFLX Chart June 2020

NFLX Chart June 2020

If you agree there’s further upside ahead for NFLX, consider this trade which is a bet that the stock will continue to advance over the next five weeks, or at least not decline very much.

Buy To Open NFLX 24JUL20 445 Puts (NFLX200724P445)
Sell To Open NFLX 24JUL20 450 Puts (NFLX200724P450) for a credit of $2.24 (selling a vertical)

This price was $0.02 less than the mid-point of the option spread when NFLX was trading near $453.  Unless the stock rallies quickly from here, you should be able to get close to this amount.

Your commission on this trade will only be $1.30 per spread.  Each contract would then yield $222.70 and your broker would charge a $500 maintenance fee, making your investment $277.30 ($500 – $222.70).  If NFLX closes at any price above $450 on July 24, both options would expire worthless, and your return on the spread would be 80% (913% annualized).

Changes to Investor’s Business Daily (IBD) Top 50 This Week:

IBD Underlying Updates June 20, 2020

IBD Underlying Updates June 20, 2020

We have found that the Investor’s Business Daily Top 50 List has been a reliable source of stocks that are likely to move higher in the short run.  Recent additions to the list might be particularly good choices for this strategy, and deletions might be good indicators for exiting a position that you might already have on that stock.

As with all investments, you should only make option trades with money that you can truly afford to lose.

Happy trading,

Terry

Zoom Video Communications (ZM) Remains a Top Performer in Today’s Markets

Monday, June 1st, 2020

This week we are looking at another of the Investor’s Business Daily (IBD) Top 50 List companies.  We use this list in one of our options portfolios to spot outperforming stocks and place option spreads that take advantage of the momentum.

Zoom Video was criticized a few months back for security and other concerns, but nevertheless, the stock continued higher. It looks even more appealing now as the company continues to gain market share and the prior concerns are no longer weighing on the company’s stock price. Several analysts share the same bullish outlook, here are two of them – Here’s Why Zoom Stock Has Been Soaring — and What to Expect Going Forward and Hedge Funds Have Never Been This Bullish On Zoom Video Communications, Inc. (ZM).

Technicals

From a technical perspective, ZM has been held higher by a rising trendline for most of the year. The stock tested this trendline in the past week and in a matter of days it was on the verge of breaking to an all-time high. The stock has been well bought on dips in general and the momentum is firm to the upside. The $180 level could prove to be a short-term hurdle but there is little reason to believe this stock will not break to all-time highs.

ZM Chart June 2020 COVID stocks surge

ZM Chart June 2020

If you agree there’s further upside ahead for ZM, consider this trade which is a bet that the stock will continue to advance over the next five weeks, or at least not decline very much.

Buy To Open ZM 10JUL20 177.5 Puts (ZM200710P177.5)
Sell To Open ZM 10JUL20 180 Puts (ZM200710P180) for a credit of $1.33 (selling a vertical)

This price was $0.02 less than the mid-point of the option spread when ZM was trading near $180.  Unless the stock rallies quickly from here, you should be able to get close to this amount.

Your commission on this trade will only be $1.30 per spread.  Each contract would then yield $131.70 and your broker would charge a $250 maintenance fee, making your investment $118.30 ($250 – $131.70).  If ZM closes at any price above $180 on July 10, both options would expire worthless, and your return on the spread would be 111% (1266% annualized).

Changes to Investor’s Business Daily (IBD) Top 50 This Week:

IBD Underlying Updates May 30, 2020

IBD Underlying Updates May 30, 2020

We have found that the Investor’s Business Daily Top 50 List has been a reliable source of stocks that are likely to move higher in the short run.  Recent additions to the list might be particularly good choices for this strategy, and deletions might be good indicators for exiting a position that you might already have on that stock.

As with all investments, you should only make option trades with money that you can truly afford to lose.

Happy trading,

Terry

American Tower (AMT) Looks Attractive as Investors Once Again Focus on 5G

Monday, May 18th, 2020

This week we are looking at another of the Investor’s Business Daily (IBD) Top 50 List companies.  We use this list in one of our options portfolios to spot outperforming stocks and place option spreads that take advantage of the momentum.

5G was a hot topic among investors ahead of the Coronavirus escalation. Now that the markets are picking up momentum again, companies that stand to gain from this technology are in the spotlight. Take a look at the following article which discusses how AMT stands to gain – 5G Is Still Coming Despite Covid-19. These Are the Stocks Set to Benefit First. Also, have a look at this article – 5G Will Be a Game-Changer for American Tower. It mentions that the stock may see some near-term weakness and that investors should take advantage of that. Interestingly, the stock has shown exactly that as it has pulled back from recent highs since the article was written.

Technicals

Two things stand out in the recent price action for AMT. First, it was able to rally to fresh record highs in April. Although it was brief, it shows strength and provides some confirmation that the uptrend remains intact. The second appeal is that the stock is currently testing its 200-day moving average. This particular indicator was well-respected in late 2019 and managed to hold the stock higher on several tests. It’s one of the more commonly watched moving averages and technical traders will be well aware of its presence.

AMT Chart May 2020: 5G stock resurgance despite COVID

AMT Chart May 2020

If you agree there’s further upside ahead for AMT, consider this trade which is a bet that the stock will continue to advance over the next five weeks, or at least a little.

Buy To Open AMT 19JUN20 220 Puts (AMT200619P220)
Sell To Open AMT 19JUN20 230 Puts (AMT200619P230) for a credit of $3.48 (selling a vertical)

This price was $0.02 less than the mid-point of the option spread when AMT was trading near $230.  Unless the stock rallies quickly from here, you should be able to get close to this amount.

Your commission on this trade will only be $1.30 per spread.  Each contract would then yield $346.70 and your broker would charge a $1000 maintenance fee, making your investment $653.30 ($1000 – $346.70).  If AMT closes at any price above $230 on June 19, both options would expire worthless, and your return on the spread would be 53% (605% annualized).

Changes to Investor’s Business Daily (IBD) Top 50 This Week:

IBD Underlying Updates May 16, 2020

IBD Underlying Updates May 16, 2020

We have found that the Investor’s Business Daily Top 50 List has been a reliable source of stocks that are likely to move higher in the short run.  Recent additions to the list might be particularly good choices for this strategy, and deletions might be good indicators for exiting a position that you might already have on that stock.

As with all investments, you should only make option trades with money that you can truly afford to lose.

Happy trading,

Terry

The Post-Earnings Dip in Netflix (NFLX) Offers a Buy Opportunity

Monday, May 4th, 2020

This week we are looking at another of the Investor’s Business Daily (IBD) Top 50 List companies.  We use this list in one of our options portfolios to spot outperforming stocks and place option spreads that take advantage of the momentum.

Several analysts have become increasingly bullish on Netflix after their most recent earnings report, here are two of them – 3 Reasons Why Netflix (NFLX) Is a Great Growth Stock and Netflix: A High-Growth Utility Despite Its High Valuation.

Technicals

Netflix is one of the few well-known companies that has broken to fresh record highs after the Coronavirus inspired drop in March. In the process of doing so, the stock has broken above an important price level at $385 that was a hurdle on three distinct attempts between late 2018 and March of this year. This technical breakout could lead to notable gains for the stock making the current pullback a buying opportunity. Buyers have already shown signs of stepping in at the 20-day moving average, further support comes at the breakout point of $385.

NFLX Chart May 2020 Record highs

NFLX Chart May 2020

If you agree there’s further upside ahead for NFLX, consider this trade which is a bet that the stock will continue to advance over the next five weeks, or at least not decline very much.

Buy To Open NFLX 12JUN20 410 Puts (NFLX200612P410)
Sell To Open NFLX 12JUN20 415 Puts (NFLX200612P415) for a credit of $2.40 (selling a vertical)

This price was $0.02 less than the mid-point of the option spread when NFLX was trading near $415.  Unless the stock rallies quickly from here, you should be able to get close to this amount.

Your commission on this trade will only be $1.30 per spread.  Each contract would then yield $238.70 and your broker would charge a $500 maintenance fee, making your investment $261.30 ($500 – $238.70).  If NFLX closes at any price above $415 on June 12, both options would expire worthless, and your return on the spread would be 91% (1038% annualized).

Changes to Investor’s Business Daily (IBD) Top 50 This Week:

IBD Underlying Updates May 2, 2020

IBD Underlying Updates May 2, 2020

We have found that the Investor’s Business Daily Top 50 List has been a reliable source of stocks that are likely to move higher in the short run.  Recent additions to the list might be particularly good choices for this strategy, and deletions might be good indicators for exiting a position that you might already have on that stock.

As with all investments, you should only make option trades with money that you can truly afford to lose.

Happy trading,

Terry

Has Adobe (ADBE) Reverted to a Bullish Trend?

Monday, April 13th, 2020

This week we are looking at another of the Investor’s Business Daily (IBD) Top 50 List companies.  We use this list in one of our options portfolios to spot outperforming stocks and place option spreads that take advantage of the momentum.

With the markets gaining upward momentum, several analysts have had good things to say about Adobe. Here is what the IBD thinks about the stock – Is Adobe Stock A Buy Right Now? Here’s What Earnings, ADBE Chart Show. Also take a look at the following article which makes a case that the company is in a good position to handle the impact of the Coronavirus – Adobe: A Resilient Software Giant

Technicals

The main technical development for ADBE as of late is that it has comfortably regained its 200-day moving average. This particular indicator has drawn buyers in the past and dips below it have generally been short-lived in the recent past. The stock appears to be building a base for its next move higher. Further, the monthly candle for March signals that there was strong buying after the dip below $300. Over the near-term, the $327 price point has proven to be a small hurdle. A break above can lead to a rally towards $360 which is a significant technical area for the stock.

ADBE Chart April 2020 bullish trend

ADBE Chart April 2020

If you agree there’s further upside ahead for ADBE, consider this trade which is a bet that the stock will continue to advance over the next five weeks, or at least a little bit.

Buy To Open ADBE 15MAY20 315 Puts (ADBE200515P315)
Sell To Open ADBE 15MAY20 320 Puts (ADBE200515P320) for a credit of $1.60 (selling a vertical)

This price was $0.02 less than the mid-point of the option spread when ADBE was trading near $319.  Unless the stock rallies quickly from here, you should be able to get close to this amount.

Your commission on this trade will only be $1.30 per spread.  Each contract would then yield $158.70 and your broker would charge a $500 maintenance fee, making your investment $341.30 ($500 – $158.70).  If ADBE closes at any price above $320 on May 15, both options would expire worthless, and your return on the spread would be 46% (525% annualized).

Changes to Investor’s Business Daily (IBD) Top 50 This Week:

IBD Underlying Updates April 11, 2020

IBD Underlying Updates April 11, 2020

We have found that the Investor’s Business Daily Top 50 List has been a reliable source of stocks that are likely to move higher in the short run.  Recent additions to the list might be particularly good choices for this strategy, and deletions might be good indicators for exiting a position that you might already have on that stock.

As with all investments, you should only make option trades with money that you can truly afford to lose.

Happy trading,

Terry

Has Alibaba (BABA) Reversed Into a Bullish Trend?

Monday, March 30th, 2020

This week we are looking at another of the Investor’s Business Daily (IBD) Top 50 List companies.  We use this list in one of our options portfolios to spot outperforming stocks and place option spreads that take advantage of the momentum.

With the markets bouncing higher, news outlets have started publishing articles on where big investors are putting their money. Have a look at what these two articles have to say about Alibaba – Bullish investors pour money into Alibaba, Amazon, Intel and Microsoft and 5 Stocks Top Earners Steven Cohen and David Tepper Agree On.

Technicals

BABA has bounced higher from an important technical support confluence that consists of a rising trendline and a horizontal level. The trendline originates from a low posted at the end of 2018 and the while the stock holds above it, the broader bullish looks to still be intact. Since turning from this support confluence, BABA has regained it’s 200-day moving average which is encouraging for bulls. Buyers should defend dips towards the trendline to maintain the upward momentum. A possible near-term target is found at $211 which has previously acted as both support and resistance.

BABA Chart March 2020 bullish trend

BABA Chart March 2020

If you agree there’s further upside ahead for BABA, consider this trade which is a bet that the stock will continue to advance over the next five weeks, or at least not decline very much.

Buy To Open BABA 08MAY20 185 Puts (BABA200508P185)
Sell To Open BABA 08MAY20 187.5 Puts (BABA200508P187.5) for a credit of $1.03 (selling a vertical)

This price was $0.02 less than the mid-point of the option spread when BABA was trading near $189.  Unless the stock rallies quickly from here, you should be able to get close to this amount.

Your commission on this trade will only be $1.30 per spread.  Each contract would then yield $101.70 and your broker would charge a $250 maintenance fee, making your investment $148.30 ($250 – $101.70).  If BABA closes at any price above $187.5 on May 08, both options would expire worthless, and your return on the spread would be 69% (787% annualized).

Changes to Investor’s Business Daily (IBD) Top 50 This Week:

IBD Underlying Updates March 28, 2020

IBD Underlying Updates March 28, 2020

We have found that the Investor’s Business Daily Top 50 List has been a reliable source of stocks that are likely to move higher in the short run.  Recent additions to the list might be particularly good choices for this strategy, and deletions might be good indicators for exiting a position that you might already have on that stock.

As with all investments, you should only make option trades with money that you can truly afford to lose.

Happy trading,

Terry

Square (SQ) Posts Small Weekly Gain Amidst a Volatile Week in the Markets

Monday, March 2nd, 2020

This week we are looking at another of the Investor’s Business Daily (IBD) Top 50 List companies.  We use this list in one of our options portfolios to spot outperforming stocks and place option spreads that take advantage of the momentum.

While equity markets fell sharply in the past week, Square’s stock price enjoyed a boost from its positive earnings report. Check out what these analysts have to say about the stock – Square earnings net stock an upgrade as analyst sees huge market for Cash App and Better Buy: PayPal Holdings vs. Square.

Techincals

SQ has shown strength as a major horizontal level has come into play near $83 and the stock managed to close above it while the rest of the equity markets mostly posted notable losses in the past week. The upward momentum remains intact, mostly due to a strong earnings report. While above the $83 price point, this stock looks poised to make another run for all-time highs near the psychological $100 mark. SQ has traded in a range since 2019 and the bullish breach above $83 appears to be signaling a bullish breakout.

SQ Chart March 2020

SQ Chart March 2020

If you agree there’s further upside ahead for SQ, consider this trade which is a bet that the stock will continue to advance over the next five weeks, at least a little bit.

Buy To Open SQ 03APR20 81 Puts (SQ200403P81)
Sell To Open SQ 03APR20 83.5 Puts (SQ200403P83.5) for a credit of $1.15 (selling a vertical)

This price was $0.02 less than the mid-point of the option spread when SQ was trading near $83.  Unless the stock rallies quickly from here, you should be able to get close to this amount.

Your commission on this trade will only be $1.30 per spread.  Each contract would then yield $113.70 and your broker would charge a $250 maintenance fee, making your investment $136.30 ($250 – $113.70).  If SQ closes at any price above $83.5 on April 03, both options would expire worthless, and your return on the spread would be 83% (947% annualized).

Changes to Investor’s Business Daily (IBD) Top 50 This Week:

IBD Underlying Updates February 29, 2020

IBD Underlying Updates February 29, 2020

We have found that the Investor’s Business Daily Top 50 List has been a reliable source of stocks that are likely to move higher in the short run.  Recent additions to the list might be particularly good choices for this strategy, and deletions might be good indicators for exiting a position that you might already have on that stock.

As with all investments, you should only make option trades with money that you can truly afford to lose.

Happy trading,

Terry

Buy the Dip in Microsoft (MSFT)

Monday, February 24th, 2020

This week we are looking at another of the Investor’s Business Daily (IBD) Top 50 List companies.  We use this list in one of our options portfolios to spot outperforming stocks and place option spreads that take advantage of the momentum.

Microsoft’s stock price dipped in the past week and these two following articles point out several reasons why investors might want to take advantage of the dip – Microsoft (MSFT): Strong Industry, Solid Earnings Estimate Revisions, and 3 Reasons Microsoft Has More Growth Ahead of It.

Technicals

While MSFT corrected lower last week, downward momentum is lacking when compared to prior weeks. The stock is currently testing the 20-day moving average which is an indicator MSFT has not traded below on a sustained basis in at least six months. Further support is seen at $174 which is a horizontal level near that acted as resistance last month. The strongest appeal to this stock is that the upward momentum has been increasing since it broke out in late October, and this upward momentum has not been negated by the recent dip. It would take a sustained drop below $174 to alter the near-term outlook for MSFT.

MSFT Chart February 2020 buy in dip

MSFT Chart February 2020

If you agree there’s further upside ahead for MSFT, consider this trade which is a bet that the stock will continue to advance over the next five weeks, or at least not decline very much.

Buy To Open MSFT 27MAR20 175 Puts (MSFT200327P175)
Sell To Open MSFT 27MAR20 177.5 Puts (MSFT200327P177.5) for a credit of $0.98 (selling a vertical)

This price was $0.02 less than the mid-point of the option spread when MSFT was trading near $179.  Unless the stock rallies quickly from here, you should be able to get close to this amount.

Your commission on this trade will only be $1.30 per spread.  Each contract would then yield $96.70 and your broker would charge a $250 maintenance fee, making your investment $153.30 ($250 – $96.70).  If MSFT closes at any price above $177.5 on March 27, both options would expire worthless, and your return on the spread would be 63% (719% annualized).

Changes to Investor’s Business Daily (IBD) Top 50 This Week:

IBD Underlying Updates February 22, 2020

IBD Underlying Updates February 22, 2020

We have found that the Investor’s Business Daily Top 50 List has been a reliable source of stocks that are likely to move higher in the short run.  Recent additions to the list might be particularly good choices for this strategy, and deletions might be good indicators for exiting a position that you might already have on that stock.

As with all investments, you should only make option trades with money that you can truly afford to lose.

Happy trading,

Terry

Ten Things You May Not Have Known About Costco

Monday, February 24th, 2020

  1. Costco is the world’s largest retailer of choice and prime beef, organic foods, rotisserie chicken, and wine. Costco is the second largest auto seller in the US, just behind AutoNation. The #1 selling product is toilet paper – over a billion rolls a year.
  2. Costco rejects conventional marketing tools. It doesn’t advertise, doesn’t tell you where to find things, has a limited array of products, and members must pay up front to shop there. Costco has no public relations staff. This is definitely an anomaly – no other big public company operates without having a public relations department.
  3. The Costco Connectionis a magazine sent free to members of Costco. Its subscribers have an average household income of $156,000 a year. The magazine is the largest-circulation print monthly in the United States.
  4. Two types of things that Costco sells: Triggers and Treasures

A typical Costco warehouse store stocks only 4,000 types of items (in contrast, the average supermarket sells 40,000 types items. Wal-Mart stores, on the other hand, stock about 125,000 types of products).

Three-quarters of Costco’s products are what it calls “triggers” – staples such as paper towel, detergents, and cereals. The remaining one-quarter are “treasures” – items that make shopping an adventure. These items change frequently: one day you can find a luxury watch offered at a ridiculous discount and the next day, it’s gone. This creates a sense of urgency and the thrill of shopping that hooked people on what’s been called the “Costco Craze” or the “Costco Effect.”

Bonus fact: Items that are “treasures” rather than always-available staples are identified by an asterisk (*) after the price on the display tag over the product.  If there is an asterisk on an item you like, you better stock up on it because when what you see has been sold, it will not be re-stocked. Sometimes they repeat “treasure” offerings, but there may be a multi-month delay before it comes back.

  1. Costco is the largest retailer of wine in the world.

Each year, it sells almost $4 billion in alcohol, with wine making up almost half of that number. Wine prices are 10% – 20% less than other wine stores, sometimes more.  Look for wine prices that end in something other than $.99 – that means it is a markdown from the regular price or Costco negotiated a special price with its supplier.  Kirkland label wines may not be what you want to place on your fancy dinner table, but put it in a decanter and wait for the raves.  My favorite white wine is the Kirkland Sonoma County Chardonnay ($6.94) which was preferred over La Crema Sonoma Coast Chardonnay ($23 at Whole Foods, $18 at Costco) in a blind test I conducted on some friends who considered themselves to be knowledgeable wine imbibers.

  1. Costco buys up half of the world’s supply of cashews

People sure love cashews. Costco sells $300,000 worth of them every week. If you noticed, Costco’s cashew containers are square – not round – in order to maximize space on pallets.

When they switched to square containers, they reduced some 400 truck trips in shipping the product to its 600+ stores every year.

  1. Costco offers a foot-long all-beef $1.50 hot dog (with condiments, sauerkraut and a free unlimited soft drink). The price has remained the same since 1985. Costco sells more than 100 million hot dogs every year. To be able to continue to sell at that price, in 2008 Costco started making their own hot dogs in a facility in California’s Central Valley.
  2. When that clerk checks your sales receipt and looks at your full cart as you exit the store, what is he/she looking for? You might think that they are making sure that everything in your cart was paid for. You would be wrong.  They are checking to make sure that the cashier did not inadvertently charge you more than once for the same item, or enter an incorrect number on multiple-item orders.
  3. Costco makes virtually no profit on the stuff it sells

Okay, this requires a bit of explanation: Costco typically marks up its goods a maximum of 14% over its cost (most items have an 8% to 10% markup – Kirkland Signature brand has a 15% markup). After accounting for expenses such as real estate costs and wages, Costco just about breaks even on those goods.

Eighty percent of the company’s gross profit actually comes from the membership fees (between $55 to $110) from its 64 million members. That’s nothing to sneeze at: Costco’s annual profit is roughly $1.5 billion. Nearly 90% of its customers renew their membership every year.

There’s another benefit to requiring people to become members in order to shop: a customer who has to provide his details in the membership registration form is less likely to write bad checks or steal. Costco suffers only one-tenth the level of those two types of losses as compared to the average supermarket.

  1. Costco is amazingly generous to its employees

On average, Costco pays its workers about $20.89 an hour (in contrast to Wal-Mart which pays its full-time employees $12.67). More than 80% of Costco employees have company-sponsored health insurance. About 90% of its employees have retirement plans.

As a result, employees rarely leave. The turnover rate of employees who have been there over a year is 5%. Turnover rate of Costco executives is even lower at 1%. That way, the company saves quite a bit in having to train new employees and its rate of theft by employee is extremely low.

Costco generates almost double the operating profit per employee than does rival Sam’s Club, which pays its employees much lower wages.

Costco also loves to promote from within – in fact, 70% of its warehouse managers started out as cart pushers and cashiers.

Bonus Fact I: Kirkland Signature is named after the city of Kirkland, Washington. It is the company’s private label, and makes up about 15% of the store’s product line, and almost a third of its sales.

Bonus Fact II: The weirdest thing ever sold on Costco? Caskets.

Bonus Fact III: Next time you buy a new car, let the dealer know you have a Costco card.  You might just be eligible to receive a free $500 gas credit or other unexpected savings.

Bonus Fact IV: Costco went public on December 5, 1985 at $10.00 per share (before stock splits). Adjusting for stock splits, the initial price per share was approximately $1.67. If you had invested $5500 at that time, you would be a millionaire today.

Final Thought: Even more than enjoying everything about shopping at Costco, I love to trade options on the stock.  At the beginning of 2019, I set up a $20,000 portfolio to trade options on COST.  Starting at the beginning of March, every Sunday, I made a short video of my COST positions and discussed why I chose those particular options and what I might do with the portfolio in the coming week.  I made 26 of these short videos and have spliced them together into 4 more manageable modules which I plan to offer as part of a course on how to carry out a conservative options portfolio using COST options.

By the third week of October, this portfolio had made a gain of $80,887 for the year.  That works out to over 400%.  Of course, COST rose about 40% during that time, but my system would have made just as much if it had remained absolutely flat instead of steadily moving higher.

I took out over $40,000 for spending and opening other option portfolios, but I still had over $50,000 worth of COST options at work in this portfolio when I stopped making the weekly videos (I stopped because my wife and I took a 3-week walking vacation along the Jurassic Coast in Dorset, England).

Oh, how I love Costco, and stock options.

Happy trading,

Terry Allen

P.S. At the beginning of 2020, I used the same strategy that I have developed over the past 40 years on Costco (COST) and Microsoft (MSFT) options.  I started out the year with $108,000 and 7 weeks later, I had more than doubled the value of the account.  I am making a video showing the actual positions I started with, the strategy I used, and how to carry it out (the all-important little details).  By signing up for the Terry’s Tips free newsletter, you will receive full details as soon as I finish the video.

Alibaba (BABA) – a Stock to Buy Following Earnings

Monday, February 17th, 2020

This week we are looking at another of the Investor’s Business Daily (IBD) Top 50 List companies.  We use this list in one of our options portfolios to spot outperforming stocks and place option spreads that take advantage of the momentum.

Alibaba’s earnings came in ahead of expectations and, as per MarketWatch, three analysts have revised up their price targets since. Take a look at the following article which discusses how the Coronavirus might alter consumer behavior to Alibaba’s benefit –  Alibaba’s Looking For Black Swan Opportunities, and also check out this article published by Zack’s which breaks down the earnings report – Alibaba (BABA) Surpasses Q3 Earnings & Revenue Estimates.

Technicals

Earlier this year, BABA scaled above the 2018 high of $212 to trade at a fresh record high. There was a correction since, however, the price action over the past few weeks shows the stock regaining some momentum and holding above the prior high which is now viewed as support. Further, the 50-day moving average comes into play and held the stock higher on a dip earlier this month. A rally above recent highs at $226 can offer confirmation of a bullish continuation while it would take a sustained drop below $212 to alter the near-term bullish view.

BABA Chart February 2020 vertical options spread

BABA Chart February 2020

If you agree there’s further upside ahead for BABA, consider this trade which is a bet that the stock will continue to advance over the next five weeks, or at least a little.

Buy To Open BABA 20MAR20 215 Puts (BABA200320P215)
Sell To Open BABA 20MAR20 220 Puts (BABA200320P220) for a credit of $2.20 (selling a vertical)

This price was $0.02 less than the mid-point of the option spread when BABA was trading near $220.  Unless the stock rallies quickly from here, you should be able to get close to this amount.

Your commission on this trade will only be $1.30 per spread.  Each contract would then yield $218.70 and your broker would charge a $500 maintenance fee, making your investment $281.30 ($500 – $218.70).  If BABA closes at any price above $220 on March 20, both options would expire worthless, and your return on the spread would be 78% (890% annualized).

Changes to Investor’s Business Daily (IBD) Top 50 This Week:

IBD Underlying Updates February 15, 2020

IBD Underlying Updates February 15, 2020

We have found that the Investor’s Business Daily Top 50 List has been a reliable source of stocks that are likely to move higher in the short run.  Recent additions to the list might be particularly good choices for this strategy, and deletions might be good indicators for exiting a position that you might already have on that stock.

As with all investments, you should only make option trades with money that you can truly afford to lose.

Happy trading,

Terry

Making 36%

Making 36% — A Duffer's Guide to Breaking Par in the Market Every Year in Good Years and Bad

This book may not improve your golf game, but it might change your financial situation so that you will have more time for the greens and fairways (and sometimes the woods).

Learn why Dr. Allen believes that the 10K Strategy is less risky than owning stocks or mutual funds, and why it is especially appropriate for your IRA.

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Success Stories

I have been trading the equity markets with many different strategies for over 40 years. Terry Allen's strategies have been the most consistent money makers for me. I used them during the 2008 melt-down, to earn over 50% annualized return, while all my neighbors were crying about their losses.

~ John Collins