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Eight Consecutive Successful Earnings Plays and What We Learned

Friday, May 17th, 2013

Note: There is a lot of valuable information in this report for anyone who trades stock options.  It will take you about 15 minutes to read, but that investment in your time could be worth thousands of dollars to you down the line.  I hope you will read it thoroughly all the way to the end.

On April’s Fools Day in 2013, we opened a new $5000 portfolio at Terry’s Tips.  We thought that might be a lucky day to start.  For several months we had been studying what happens just before and after a company announces their quarterly earnings, and this portfolio was designed to put our observations to work.

The biggest thing we discovered in our analysis was that the post-announcement change in the stock price was determined more by market expectations prior to the announcement than the actual earnings themselves.  If you have played in the stock market for any length of time, you surely have lived through an earnings announcement when your favorite company exceeded estimates on all scores, and the stock fell on the news.  That really hurts, and I’m sure we all have felt it.

We have concluded that it is all due to what the market was expecting vs. its experience of the actual earnings.

Most of the time, we measured expectations by what the stock had done in the weeks leading up to the announcement and the difference between what analysts predicted earnings would be and the whisper numbers (we also check out RSI numbers to see if the stock is particularly over-sold or over-bought, and recent company performance at earnings time related to results vs. estimates). 

When the stock has had a big run-up before the announcement and whisper numbers were greater than analyst expectations, we concluded that expectations were uncomfortably high, and the least disappointment in the announcement (concerning earnings, revenues, margins, or guidance) might result in the stock trading lower even if the company surpassed earnings by a comfortable margin.

We called it the PEA Picker portfolio (PEA stands for Pre-Earnings Announcement).  We restricted the companies that we would consider to those which traded Weeklys approximately 160).  We eliminated companies trading for less than $20 because option prices were typically not attractive enough for our purposes. We ended up with about 100 companies which are the most actively-traded and have the most liquid option markets (i.e., small bid – ask spreads and the assurance that decent spread prices could be executed). 

Even more important, we could trade out of them on the Friday following the announcement, just a few days after placing our trades.  This eliminated being concerned about the long-run prospects for the company and put us in cash at the end of the week so we could invest in another company in the following week.  We like near-instant gratification on our trades, bad or good, and we like to sleep over the weekend with no positions in place (most of the time).

In addition to checking recent stock price action and whisper numbers, we looked carefully at the last four earnings reports to see what happened, and to the most recent RSI numbers to learn if the stock were unusually over-bought or over-sold.  Some companies consistently exceeded expectations and their stock fell after the announcement while others merely met expectations and the stock moved higher. 

Many times we were able to detect patterns that helped us decide which option spreads we would use.  One pattern was that big moves after announcements tended to be reversed at the next announcement (or more often, big moves were rarely followed by big moves in the same direction at the next announcement).

The day after the PEA Picker portfolio was set up, we issued the following Trade Alert.  By the way, this portfolio is carried out in an actual TD Ameritrade/thinkorswim portfolio and all commissions are included at the special rate offered to Terry’s Tips Insiders.  All of the Trade Alerts in this report are actual emails that were sent to Terry’s Tips Insiders and to thinkorswim so they could execute trades through Auto-Trade.  Our account is set up through Auto-Trade so every trade reported here was exactly duplicated in the accounts of all our subscribers who set up through Auto-Trade at thinkorswim.

This first trade involved buying a straddle which we bought before the Weeklys which expired on the Friday after the announcement were available.  This not the usual way we set up PEA Plays but we do it sometimes, obviously.

We had decided that expectations were unusually low and the stock would head higher after the announcement, but the first trade was neutral (it would make money if the stock headed either way, just as long as it moved).

April 2, 2013  Trade Alert -  PEA Picker  Portfolio

J.P. Morgan (JPM) announces earnings next week and the Weeklys that become available on Thursday will be the options with the escalated implied volatility (IV).  We will establish some long positions before that time.  The stock is trading very close to $48 right now so the straddle price is at its lowest.  The straddle might gain for two reasons – first, leading up to an announcement the stock quite often moves (usually higher), and second, implied volatility (IV) of the monthly options usually moves higher once the Weeklys become available:

BTO (Buy To Open) 20 JPM Apr-13 48 calls (JPM130420C48)
BTO 20 JPM Apr-13 48 puts (JPM130420P48) for a debit of $1.88  (buying a straddle) 

Two days later, we issued the following:

April 4, 2013  Trade Alert #2 -  PEA Picker  Portfolio

There are many reasons to believe that the stock is headed higher after earnings and we are currently negative net delta.  This trade will make us long:

STO (Sell To Open) 15 JPM Apr2-13 47 puts (JPM130420P47) for $.58

We held these positions (which cost us a net $2041) until shortly before earnings were to be announced after the close on April 10.  The stock had moved about two dollars higher as we had anticipated.  We issued the following:

April 10, 2013  Trade Alert -  PEA Picker  Portfolio

The stock moved up almost $2 and IV also moved up. We have a nice gain here so we might as well take it rather than waiting for more (or maybe less) once earnings are reported:

BTC 15 JPM APR2-13 47 puts (JPM130412P47)
STC 15 JPM Apr-13 48 puts (JPM130420P48) for a credit of $.25  (selling a diagonal)

STC 5 JPM Apr-13 48 puts (JPM130420P48) for $.30

STC 20 JPM Apr-13 48 calls (JPM130420C48) for $1.74

 
This first PEA Play was a little complicated (future ones will make more sense, I promise).  You can see that we sold the original straddle (which had cost us $1.88) for a total of $2.04 ($1.74 + $.30).  It is not so clear to see that the 15 Apr2-13 47 puts we had sold for $.58 were bought back for only $.05 (this was where most of our gain was).  After commissions, we made a profit of $789 on our $2061 investment, or about 38% of the money we had invested.  The portfolio as a whole had gained only 15.8% because we had invested only about 40% of the cash at our disposal.
The next week featured the Google (GOOG) announcement. We noticed that the GOOG options were expecting a move of 12.3% yet the average post-announcement move had historically been only 6.7%.  (You can calculate the percentage change that the options are predicting by adding up the time premium of the at-the-money Weekly put and call and dividing that total by the stock price.)  While we would have liked to sell the straddle short, that is not possible in an IRA account, and we do not make any trades for our subscribers which cannot be executed in an IRA.
Our choice was to buy diagonal spreads at strikes both comfortably above and below the stock price.  We issued the following:

April 15, 2013  Trade Alert -  PEA Picker  Portfolio
This is a small bet that Google will not deviate by more than $40 from its present level of $790 after this week’s announcement:

BTO 1 GOOG May-13 785 put (GOOG130518P785)
STO 1 GOOG Apr-13 765 put (GOOG130420P765) for a debit of $13.51  (buying a diagonal)

BTO 1 GOOG May-13 820 call (GOOG130518C820)
STO 1 GOOG Apr-13 830 call (GOOG130429C830) for a debit of $8.02  (buying a diagonal)

The total amount invested here was $2158 including commissions.

Again, these trades are a little unlike our usual PEA Plays, but the key point is that the stock would have to fall by $25 before the short 765 puts would have any value.  If the stock fell by that much, or more, the May-13 785 put would be worth at least $2000 more than the short put value (and there would still be some value in the May-13 820 call), so there would be a gain no matter how far the stock might fall.

If the stock were to move $40 higher, the 830 call would have some value, but the May-13 820 call will always be worth at least $1000 more than the 830 short call (and actually, quite a bit more because the option would be very close to the money and there would be a full month of time remaining in that option).  In short, it appeared that a gain would come no matter how high the stock might go.  However, while these spreads gave us excellent protection if there was a large move in either direction, if the stock didn’t move much there was the possibility of a loss.  We corrected that three days later when we issued the following Trade Alert:

April 18, 2013  Trade Alert -  PEA Picker  Portfolio

The stock has fallen more than $20 since we placed the first spreads.  This is an indication that expectations have dwindled, and the stock might move higher.  These trades will give us a little more upside protection in case it rallies and also protects the mid-range from the extremes of the diagonal spreads we placed earlier:

BTO 1 GOOG May-13 780 call (GOOG130518C780)
STO 1 GOOG Apr-13 780 call (GOOG130429C780) for a debit of $4.60  (buying a calendar)

BTO 1 GOOG May-13 790 call (GOOG130518C790)
STO 1 GOOG Apr-13 790 call (GOOG130429C790) for a debit of $4.75  (buying a calendar)

The stock ended up trading between $780 and $790, just where these calendar spreads would do best.  We sold them for $11.52 and $11.80, well more than doubling our money on those spreads.  We lost a little money on the original diagonal spreads, closing out the puts for $15.92 and the calls for $3.90 (for a total of $19.82 compared to our cost of $21.53).

We lost $176 on the diagonal spreads and gained $1392 on the calendar spreads, making the total gain after commissions for the week a healthy $1216 on an investment of $3,098, or 39%.  We plan to make similar investments with Google options in July when the next earnings announcement is scheduled.

Next up was the eBay earnings announcement.  This occurred during the same week as the Google play, and we had spare cash we could put to use:

April 16, 2013  Trade Alert -  PEA Picker  Portfolio

eBay is flirting with a new high and whisper numbers exceed estimates.  This level of expectation usually results in a flat or lower stock price after the announcement, and this spread should make gains if the stock rises moderately or falls by any amount:

BTO 10 EBAY May-13 60 calls (EBAY130518C60)
STO 10 EBAY Apr-13 57.5 calls (EBAY130420C57.5) for a credit of $.16  (buying a diagonal)

This spread required a maintenance requirement of $2500 (less the $160 received).

The stock did manage to fall, and by quite a bit, the Apr-13 57.5 calls expired worthless and we were only able to sell the May-13 60 calls for $.07 ($70) so we managed to make a small gain of $230 less $75 commissions on our eBay play (7%).

The portfolio value had soared to $7,187 in its first two weeks of trading.  We withdrew $2000 from the portfolio so that Terry’s Tips subscribers could follow PEA Picker trades for about $5000 (either through Auto-Trade at thinkorswim where they don’t have to place any trades themselves, or on their own if they preferred another broker).

Next up was Apple (trading at about $405):

April 22, 2013  Trade Alert -  PEA Picker  Portfolio – limit orders

Expectations for Apple seem to be unusually low and when earnings are announced after the close tomorrow there is a good chance that it will trade higher:

BTO 5 AAPL May-13 410 calls (AAPL130518C410)
STO 5 AAPL Apr4-13 410 calls (AAPL130426C410) for a debit limit of $3.85  (buying a calendar)

BTO 5 AAPL May-13 420 calls (AAPL130518C410)
STO 5 AAPL Apr4-13 420 calls (AAPL130426C410) for a debit limit of $3.65  (buying a calendar) 

The stock did move higher and the next day we issued the following:

April 23, 2013  Trade Alert -  PEA Picker  Portfolio

The stock has moved up $15 since we bought our spreads.  We should use our remaining cash to add on another calendar at a higher strike:

BTO 4 AAPL May-13 430 calls (AAPL130518C430)
STO 4 AAPL Apr4-13 430 calls (AAPL130426C430) for a debit limit of $3.16  (buying a calendar) 

The stock closed at $417.20 on Friday.  We sold the 430 spread for $3.14 (incurring a loss of $28 after commissions), the 420 spread for $6.86 and the 410 spread for $4.66, both at nice gains totaling $1960 after commissions.  Net gain for the trades was $1982 on an investment of $5049, or 39%. 

The portfolio value had climbed to $7062 and it was time to withdraw another $2000 from the portfolio to allow new Terry’s Tips subscribers to follow it for about the starting value of $5000.

Next up was Storage Technology (STX):

May 1, 2013  Trade Alert -  PEA Picker  Portfolio

There are a lot of reasons to believe that Seagate (STX) will move higher after today’s announcement following the close.  The company has exceeded expectations every quarter for the last year and sells at a trailing p/e of only 6.4 in spite of consistent growth and a 4.2% dividend.  The company is aggressively buying back shares – in the last six months of 2012, it reduced the outstanding shares by 9.5% and has plans to continue buying back shares.  Whisper numbers are higher than analyst expectations ($1.31 vs. $1.19) but the shares are trading lower than they were three weeks ago which suggests that expectations are not unusually high.  These positions should make gains if the stock falls only a small amount or goes up by any reasonable amount:

BTO 4 STX Jun-13 37 calls (STX130622C37)
STO 4 STX May1-13 36.5 calls (STX130503C36.5) for a debit of $.44  (buying a diagonal)

BTO 4 STX Jun-13 37 calls (STX130622C37) for $1.66

BTO 4 STX Jun-13 37 calls (STX130622C37)
STO 4 STX May1-13 37 calls (STX130503C37) for a debit of $.68  (buying a calendar)
 
BTO 8 STX Jun-13 38 calls (STX130622C38)
STO 8 STX May1-13 38 calls (STX130503C38) for a debit of $.66  (buying a calendar)

BTO 8 STX Jun-13 34 puts (STX130622P34)
STO 8 STX May1-13 34 puts (STX130503P34) for a debit of $.78  (buying a calendar)

The next day the stock moved up over a dollar and we wanted to get a little longer so we placed these trades:

May 2, 2013  Trade Alert -  PEA Picker  Portfolio – limit orders

This trade will pick up a little premium and make us neutral net delta:

BTC 4 STX May1-13 36.5 calls (STX130503C36.5)
STO 4 STX May1-13 39.5 calls (STX130503C39.5) for a debit limit of $2.45  (buying a vertical)

We will take these spreads off:

BTC 4 STX May1-13 37 calls (STX130503C37)
STC 4 STX Jun-13 37 calls (STX130622C37) for a credit limit of $.50  (selling a calendar)

BTC 8 STX May1-13 34 puts (STX130503P34) for a limit of $.01 (no commission)

STC 8 STX Jun-13 34 puts (STX130622P34) for a limit of $.31

Note: thinkorswim does not charge a commission when you buy back short options for $.05 or less.

These were our closing transactions:

May 3, 2013  Trade Alert -  PEA Picker  Portfolio – limit orders

We need to close these out today:

BTC 8 STX May1-13 38 calls (STX130503C38)
STC 8 STX Jun-13 38 calls (STX130622C38) for a credit limit of $.37  (selling a calendar)

BTC 4 STX May1-13 39.5 calls (STX130503C39.5)
STC 4 STX Jun-13 37 calls (STX130622C37) for a credit limit of $2.68  (selling a diagonal)

STC 4 STX Jun-13 37 calls (STX130622C37) for $4.45

The stock had shot up 11% after announcing earnings.  While we correctly guessed the direction of the change, we didn’t quite expect it would be that large.  We lost money on all the spreads we had placed, but the four extra uncovered Jun-13 37 calls rose enough to cover all the losses.  It was our worst week so far.  We gained only $161 which worked out to be 6.4% on our investment and 3.2% on the portfolio value.

Next up was Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR), a company I have followed since its founding since I live in Vermont and have played tennis regularly with the founder (now ex-chairman) of the company (no, he never gives me any tips, darn it).  I have made a great deal of money betting on the company this year (while it has risen nearly four-fold from its low).  I wrote a Seeking Alpha article outlining why I believed that the company would exceed estimates on earnings but the stock might be flat or fall a little after the announcement – How To Play The Green Mountain Coffee Roaster…

This is the trade I recommended in that article:

May 6, 2013  Trade Alert -  PEA Picker  Portfolio

As we indicated in the Saturday Report, we will make this trade:

BTO 12 GMCR Jun-13 52.5 calls (GMCR130622C52.5)
STO 12 GMCR May2-13 57 calls (GMCR130510C57) for a debit of $3.78 (buying a diagonal) 

Two days later, my prognosis of the earnings was right on the money, but the company unexpectedly announced a new five-year deal with Starbucks which removed much of the uncertainty about the company.  The stock soared by 25%!

If this announcement had not been made I feel certain that our spread would have gained about 50%, but with such a huge gain in the stock, we had to settle for less:

May 9, 2013  Trade Alert -  PEA Picker  Portfolio – limit order

The stock has gone up so far that we can expect to collect little more than the intrinsic value of this spread:

BTC 12 GMCR May2-13 57 calls (GMCR130510C57)
STC 12 GMCR Jun-13 52.5 calls (GMCR130622C52.5) for a credit limit of $4.53  (selling a diagonal)

We “only” made 18.5% after commissions for the trades.  The wonderful thing about options is that you can be wrong and still make a gain much of the time, as we managed to do this time around.

The PEA Picker portfolio was now all in cash and was worth $6,065.  It was time to withdraw another $1000.  Subscribers who followed our trades or participated in Auto-Trade now had all $5000 they originally invested back, and the portfolio was still worth over $5000, It had only been 38 days since our first trade.

Next week we made two PEA Plays, one on Deere & Company and the other on Sina Corporation (SINA).  I wrote Seeking Alpha articles in advance of both plays -How To Play The Deere & Company Earnings Anno… and How To Play The Sina Corporation Earnings Ann…

May 14, 2013  Trade Alert -  PEA Picker  Portfolio – limit orders

We will invest about half our cash in this play as described in the Saturday Report:

BTO 8 DE Jun-13 95 puts (DE130622P95)
STO 8 DE May-13 92.5 puts (DE130518P92.5) for a debit limit of $2.35  (buying a diagonal)

BTO 4 DE Jun-13 90 puts (DE130622P90)
STO 4 DE May-13 90 puts (DE130518P90) for a debit limit of $.93  (buying a calendar)

We thought expectations were running high (whisper numbers well above analyst expectations and the stock had traded higher going into the announcement) so we were betting on a flat or down market after the announcement.  In addition, for the prior four quarters, Deere had traded lower (by about 4%) after earnings, even though they exceeded estimates most of the time.

We were not disappointed.  Even though the company announced earnings that were above estimates, their guidance was tepid.  The stock fell about $4 after the announcement.  We took off our diagonal spread the same day:

May 15, 2013  Trade Alert -  PEA Picker  Portfolio – LIMIT ORDER

We will take off this spread if can get this price:

BTC 8 DE May-13 92.5 puts (DE130518P92.5)
STC 8 DE Jun-13 95 puts (DE130622P95) for a credit limit of $2.72  (selling a diagonal)

We closed out the calendar spread on Friday, selling it for $1.42.  Our gain on the trades was $176 for each spread after commissions, or $352 total on an investment of $2282, or 15%.

In the same week we made a second PEA Play, this one on Sina:
 
May 14, 2013  Trade Alert  #2 -  PEA Picker  Portfolio – limit orders

We will invest about half our cash in this play:

BTO 7 SINA Jun-13 55 puts (SINA130622P55)
STO 7 SINA May-13 55 puts (SINA130518P55) for a debit limit of $1.17  (buying a calendar)

BTO 7 SINA Jun-13 57.5 puts (SINA130622P57.5)
STO 7 SINA May-13 57.5 puts (SINA130518P57.5) for a debit limit of $1.28  (buying a calendar)

BTO 7 SINA Jun-13 60 calls (SINA130622C60)
STO 7 SINA May-13 60 calls (SINA130518C60) for a debit limit of $1.30  (buying a calendar)

On the day before earnings were announced, we added another spread:

May 16, 2013  Trade Alert -  PEA Picker  Portfolio – limit order

If Sina stock rallies more than 5% we will lose money on our spreads.  This trade will expand our upside protection a little and still give us coverage for almost a 10% drop on the downside:

BTO 4 SINA Jun-13 57.5 puts (SINA130622P57.5)
STO 4 SINA May-13 60 puts (SINA130518P60) for a debit of $.10  (buying a diagonal)

We had expected Sina to fall after the earnings announcement because expectations were so high, but we left ourselves with a little room for the stock to move higher in case we were wrong.  The extra trade ended up being a good one because the stock opened up almost $2 higher but then fell back over a dollar mid-day.  We sold the 4 diagonal put spread for $.93, making $352 after commissions.  The 55 put calendar spread was sold for a loss ($.70), the 57.5 put calendar spread for a small gain ($1.35), and the 60 call calendar was sold for a nice gain ($2.05).  After commissions, the Sina options were closed out for a $525 gain, or 19% on our $2727 investment (we had a $1250 maintenance requirement for one day because of the put diagonal, but since we had closed out the Deere positions we had plenty of spare cash in the account).

So there we are.  Eight consecutive profitable option spreads on earnings announcements.  The original $5000 investment had been entirely withdrawn in cash and the account was worth $5862 and sitting in cash awaiting the next week’s trades.

Here are the net results:
JPM  38%
GOOG  39%
EBAY   7%
AAPL  39%
STX   6%
GMCR 18%
DE  15%
SINA  19%

The average gain for the eight successful plays was 22.6%.  Most of the time we only put about half our money at risk so the portfolio increased in value by less than 8 x 22.6%.

What We Have Learned:   We have identified the following characteristics of earnings-announcement-related price action based on our experience over the past several months:

1. It is possible to construct a combination of option spreads which creates a profit if the stock moves less than 10% in one direction or 5% in the other.  Most of the time, the level of pre-announcement expectation determines the direction you want to establish the 10% coverage.

2. It is possible to create unlimited coverage in one direction or the other with diagonal spreads but the potential gains are diminished.

3. Big (over 10%) price moves are almost always in the opposite direction of these last 10% earnings-related move.

4. Downside 10% moves are about twice as likely as upside 10% moves.

5. Big downside price moves are much more likely when expectations are high (some small part of the announcement often disappoints).  High expectations can be measured by a strong upward move in the stock price in the month or two prior to the announcement, a high RSI, and whisper numbers exceeding analyst expectations – all three numbers should be checked prior to making PEA Play).  Low expectations (and a possible 10%+ upward post-earnings move) have the opposite numbers.

6. When risk profile graphs are created prior to making a PEA Play, it is important to change the Implied Volatility (IV) of the long options to account for the expected implosion of all option prices after the announcement has been made.  Check back to see what IV of the one-month options fell to after the last earnings announcement as a guide. If the month of the long options is greater than three months more than the short-term options which are being sold (usually Weeklys), IV will not fall as much as shorter-term long options (because a second earnings-announcement day will occur before they expire).

7. It is usually possible to create a risk profile graph which shows a break-even range which extends about 10% in one direction (usually on the downside) and 5% in the other (usually the upside) by selecting the strike prices of the calendar spreads.

8. When selecting the best month for the long side of the calendar spreads, check out the bid-ask ranges of the options to learn if decent executions are likely.  The further out you go, the more conservative your positions will be (more of the option’s value is due to its long life than its IV) but the greater the bid-ask range might be.

9. Restrict PEA Play companies to those which have Weekly options available.  These are the most actively-traded option markets and decent executions are generally available (which is often not the case with companies which trade only monthly options).  Selling Weeklys also means that you can exit the positions in just a few days rather than waiting until the month expires before the short-term options fall to their intrinsic value.

10. In about a third of the weeks, there will not be a viable PEA Play available, especially if Weekly options are to be sold.  Earnings announcements tend to lump together in a distinct season starting about the middle of January and extending for about six weeks (and then moving 90 days forward to the next quarterly reports).

11. While losses are possible with PEA Plays, the entire amount of the investment can never be lost because there will always be more value to the long side of the calendar spreads than the short value because of the additional time value to those options.

12. More conservative (with lower potential gains) PEA Plays can be made by choosing a wider range of strike prices for the calendar spreads.

13. We checked to see if hedge funds had recently bought (or sold) shares in the company, and concluded that such information was valuable in deciding whether to bet on a higher (or lower) stock price.  While hedge funds aren’t always right, they surely do intensive due diligence before investing or divesting, and they have far more resources to do this that any individual has.

14. A statistic that will need more study is the short interest ratio.  When an unusually high percentage of shares have been sold short, a short squeeze is possible that could result in a large upward move after the announcement, but except for the GMCR case (huge short interest, huge gain after the announcement), the short interest level did not seem to be a significant factor. 

.  Will we be able to continue making profitable PEA Plays every week for the next six weeks?  Probably not.  But it’s possible.  We plan to invest only about half our portfolio value in any given earnings play (and sometimes two in a week) so that if there is a 10% move in the opposite direction we expect, we won’t be left with no money to work with.  (If we feel really strongly about a trade, like we did in Green Mountain Coffee Roasters, we will invest more than half the portfolio value.)

So far, playing the earnings announcements has been fun, and profitable.  After reading this, I hope you decide that it would be a lot easier to become a Terry’s Tips Insider, sign up for Auto-Trade at thinkorswim, and let us make all the investment decisions.  You could also follow our Trade Alerts and place the trades at another broker if you prefer.

You can become a Terry’s Tips Insider, and receive all our educational reports and materials absolutely free by opening a new account (even if you already have another account) at the best options broker around – thinkorswim. You must use this link to sign up – open thinkorswim account– and once you have funded your account with at least $3500, email Seth@TerrysTips.com and let him know that you have done it, and this is what he will do – sign you for our Premium Service package ($119.95 value plus an extra 4 months of our Premium Service, valued at another $190.80).  You get $300.65 worth of services without paying us one penny, and your service will extend for five full months after which you can decide on whether to continue or not.

I look forward to prospering with you.

Terry
Terry@TerrysTips.com

Update on the Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR) Trade

Thursday, May 9th, 2013

Update on the Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR) Trade

 

On Monday, I wrote to my free newsletter subscribers and recommended the following trade in advance of the company’s earnings announcement after the close on Wednesday:

 

Buy To Open 10 GMCR Jun-13 52.5 calls (GMCR130622C52.5)

Sell To Open 10 GMCR May2-13 57 calls (GMCR130510C57) for a debit of $3.70 (buying a diagonal) 

 

This spread would make a gain for the week if the stock managed to fall by less than 10%, stay flat, or go up by any amount.  The maximum gain would come if the stock fell by about $2 (to $57) after the announcement.

 

I also wrote a Seeking Alpha article explaining why I believed that the company would exceed expectations but the stock would fall slightly after the announcement for a couple or reasons (primarily because expectations were so high) – How To Play The Green Mountain Coffee Roaster…

 

My analysis on the earnings announcement was right on the money, but the company also disclosed that they had signed a 5-year deal with Starbucks (SBUX) that caused the stock to shoot higher by about 25%.  In my defense, there was no way I could have known about this wonderful news for GMCR stockholders.

 

I was able to sell the spread for only its intrinsic value ($4.50) because the stock had moved so much higher.  That resulted in a gain of 20% after commissions for the trade.

 

In most investments, a 20% gain in three days would be considered a fantastic return.  Actually, I was a little disappointed. I could have made double that amount if the
Starbucks news had come along at some other time than today.

 

Over a million dollars was invested in the GMCR Jun-13 52.5 calls on Monday after I made my recommendations, double or triple near-by option volume.  Clearly, lots of people heeded my advice.  I hope they are satisfied with a 20% return for the week.  I guess I am, reluctantly.

An Interesting Straddle Purchase Opportunity in J.P. Morgan (JPM)

Monday, April 1st, 2013

Most of the time I prefer to sell options with just a few days or weeks of remaining life and collect the premium that is decaying at a higher rate than ever before.  However, this policy is not always the most profitable alternative out there.  Today I would like to discuss one of those situations where buying options rather than selling them might be the better bet. 

If you read down further, there is information on how you can become a Terry’s Tips Insider absolutely free! 

An Interesting Straddle Purchase Opportunity in J.P. Morgan (JPM)

 Implied Volatility (IV) of an option price is supposed to measure the market’s expectation of how much the underlying security will fluctuate in one year.  If an options series has an IV of 20, the market expects the stock will move either up or down by 20% over the course of a year. 

Sometimes there is a huge difference between IV of the options and the actual price behavior of the stock.  For example, check out J P Morgan (JPM).  The April options have an IV of 24 with three weeks of remaining life, and this IV is unusually high because an earnings announcement is due on April 12 (before the open), and volatility is usually higher than normal after announcements. 

So how much did JPM fluctuate over the past year?  On June 4, 2013 it hit a low of $30.83 and on March 15, 2013 it hit a high of $51.00. This is a 64% change, more than triple the IV of the options.  In other words, options are relatively inexpensive compared to the actual volatility of the stock. 

When you see a situation like this, the best options play might be to buy a straddle (both a put and a call) at an at-the-money strike and hope that the stock fluctuates as it has in the past. 

Right now, with JPM trading at $47.50, you could either buy an April 47 or 48 straddle for about $2.00 (if you think JPM is headed higher, you would select the 47 strike, and if you think JPM is more likely to fall, you would choose the 48 strike).  If the stock fluctuates more than $3.00 in the next three weeks, you could sell your straddle for a 50% gain.  (The nice thing about straddles is that you don’t care whether the stock goes up or down, just as long as it moves.) 

So how likely is JPM to fluctuate by at least $3.00 in a month?  Here are the biggest and smallest moves it has made over the past 25 months: 

Month

Open

High

Low

Close

Big Up

Big Down

3/1/2013

48.6

51

47.28

47.46

2.08

1.64

2/1/2013

47.4

49.68

46.85

48.92

2.63

0.20

1/2/2013

44.98

47.35

44.2

47.05

3.38

-0.23

12/3/2012

41.27

44.54

40.2

43.97

3.46

0.88

11/1/2012

41.7

43.07

38.83

41.08

1.39

2.85

10/1/2012

40.88

43.54

40.42

41.68

3.06

0.06

9/4/2012

36.98

42.09

36.78

40.48

4.95

0.36

8/1/2012

36.19

38.86

34.76

37.14

2.86

1.24

7/2/2012

36.27

37.2

33.1

36

1.47

2.63

6/1/2012

32.41

37.03

30.83

35.73

3.88

2.32

5/1/2012

43

44.24

32.26

33.15

1.26

10.72

4/2/2012

45.75

46.35

41.8

42.98

0.37

4.18

3/1/2012

39.51

46.49

39.12

45.98

7.25

0.12

2/1/2012

37.89

39.94

37.05

39.24

2.64

0.25

1/3/2012

34.06

38.1

34.01

37.3

4.85

0.05

12/1/2011

30.86

34.19

30.03

33.25

3.22

0.94

11/1/2011

32.47

35.18

28.28

30.97

0.42

6.48

10/3/2011

30.03

37.54

27.85

34.76

7.42

2.27

9/1/2011

37.62

37.82

28.53

30.12

0.26

9.03

8/1/2011

41.16

41.37

32.31

37.56

0.92

8.14

7/1/2011

40.81

42.55

38.93

40.45

1.61

2.01

6/1/2011

42.87

42.99

39.24

40.94

0.12

4.00

5/2/2011

45.94

46.07

41.69

43.24

0.44

3.94

4/1/2011

46.55

47.8

43.53

45.63

1.70

2.57

3/1/2011

46.47

47.1

43.4

46.1

0.41

3.29

 I have highlighted the months in which the stock fluctuated at least $3.00 in either direction (enough for you to make a 50% gain on a $2.00 straddle purchase).  For those months, a 50% gain would be possible in 17 out of 25 months (68% of the time).

 Admittedly, in this example with April options, there are only three weeks rather than four for the stock to fluctuate by this much, but since this time period includes an earnings announcement, greater volatility can be expected in this three-week period than a normal (no earnings announcement) month. 

If you were to buy an April straddle on JPM for $2.00 and place a good-til-cancelled order to sell it if it hit $3.00, you would gain 50% on your investment (less commissions).  If it did not execute in the next two weeks, I would recommend selling it when there was one week remaining for the April options.  If the stock is trading exactly at the strike price of your straddle, you would probably get back half of your $2.00 cost, losing 50%.  If the stock is at any other price than exactly at your strike price, you should be able to sell the straddle for more than $1.00.  If the stock is as little as $1.00 higher or lower than your strike price, you should be able to get back $1.50 of your original $2.00 cost by exiting (selling) the position with a week of life remaining in the option.  If the stock is $2.00 away from the strike price, you should be able to sell the straddle at a profit. 

The stock does not have to fluctuate by $3.00 for you to sell an at-the-money straddle for $3.00 since there will always be some time value to the options (over and above the intrinsic value) right up until the options expire. 

I like the odds of this straddle purchase and plan to do it both in my personal account and in one of my portfolios that I conduct at Terry’s Tips

Terry’s Tips Subscribers Score Big Win With NTAP Earnings Play

Thursday, February 14th, 2013

Terry’s Tips Subscribers Score Big Win With NTAP Earnings Play

In anticipation of Network Appliance’s (NTAP) earnings announcement after the close on Wednesday, February 13, on Monday the following trades were made when the stock was trading about $35.50:

BTO 15 NTAP Jun-13 38 calls (NTAP130622C38)
STO 15 NTAP Feb-13 36 calls (NTAP130216C36) for a debit limit of $.77 (buying a diagonal)

BTO 12 NTAP Jun-13 33 puts (NTAP130622P33)
STO 12 NTAP Feb-13 35 puts (NTAP130216P35) for a debit limit of $.82  (buying a diagonal)

These trades cost $2139 to place plus $68 in commissions for a total of $2207.  In addition, the broker imposed a $3000 maintenance requirement on the account (15 contracts at $200 each – the 12 put spreads did not require a charge because we couldn’t lose on both put and call spreads – it was essentially a short iron condor).

On Thursday, the morning after the announcement, the following trades were executed while NTAP fluctuated between $35 and $36:

BTC 15 NTAP Feb-13 36 calls (NTAP130216C36)
STC 15 NTAP Jun-13 38 calls (NTAP130622C38) for a credit limit of $1.28  (selling a diagonal)

BTC 6 NTAP Feb-13 35 puts (NTAP130216P35)
STC 6 NTAP Jun-13 33 puts (NTAP130622P33) for a credit limit of $1.39  (selling a diagonal)

BTC 6 NTAP Feb-13 35 puts (NTAP130216P35)
STC 6 NTAP Jun-13 33 puts (NTAP130622P33) for a credit limit of $1.50  (selling a diagonal)

The total collected from these sales was $3654 less $68 commissions, or $3586.  The profit was $1379, or 62% of the cash outlay for the spreads.

There is a question as to how much of the $3000 maintenance requirement was actually at risk since the long sides had 4 months of remaining life and would have a value no matter where the stock price ended up.  If we assume that half this amount was truly at risk, the return for the trades would be reduced to 37%.

Whether the actual return after commissions was 62% or 37%, it was a nice Valentine’s Day for the Terry’s Tips subscribers who participated in these trades.

 

Closing Out the Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD) Spreads

Wednesday, February 13th, 2013

Closing Out the Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD) Spreads

If you recall, on Monday I recommended buying the following two spreads while BWLD was trading about $77 in advance of Tuesday’s earnings announcement after the close:

BTO (buy to open) 6 BWLD Jun-13 85 calls (BWLD130622C85)
STO (sell to open) 6 BWLD Feb-13 80 calls (BWLD130216C80) for a debit of $1.40  (buying a diagonal)

BTO (buy to open) 4 BWLD Jun-13 70 puts (BWLD130622P70)
STO (sell to open) 4 BWLD Feb-13 75 puts (BWLD130216P75) for a debit of $.90  (buying a diagonal)

In my personal account, after sending out this recommendation, just to make sure these prices were still available, I bought the above spreads.  I paid $1.39 for the call spread and $1.35 for the put spread.

These two spreads cost $1374 plus $25 in commissions for a total cost of $1399.  There was a $3000 maintenance requirement charged by the broker, although I figured that the actual amount at risk was no more than half that amount because the long puts and calls both had five months of remaining life and would have value (the broker assumes that you don’t sell them as soon as you can and just let them expire worthless). 

So to my way of thinking, I risked about $2900 on these spreads although I had to leave an additional $1500 in my account alone for what worked out to be a single day.

On Wednesday after the announcement the stock had hardly changed from what it was at the open on Monday, $77, although it had move about $4 higher late Tuesday and opened about $4 lower on Wednesday.

At about 10:30 a.m. I sold the call spread for $2.51 and the put spread for $2.42, collecting $3274 less $25 commissions, or $3249.  That gave me a cash profit of $1850 on my adjusted $2900 at risk.  That works out to a 63% gain for the trades.

I would have made just about the same gain if the stock ended up at any price between $75 and $80.  If I had waited until Friday to close out the spreads, I would have made more if it fell in that range, but I will take a 63% profit for a couple of days any time.

This is the third similar trade I have made with pre-earnings announcement companies in the last three weeks, and all three trades have had similar profitable results.

Apple’s Fundamental Great Value May Soon Get a Gigantic PR Boost

Tuesday, February 12th, 2013

Apple’s Fundamental Great Value May Soon Get a Gigantic PR Boost

Apple (AAPL) has become one of the least expensive stocks in the entire market based on a fundamental value.  Subtracting out its $128 per-share cash value ($121.3 billion/939 million shares outstanding), its trailing P/E is a ridiculously-low 7.9.  Even if you do not adjust for cash, the trailing P/E is 10.88 and forward P/E is 9.43 according to Yahoo Finance.

The company pays a 2.2% forward dividend rate and the pay-out ratio is only 12% so there is an excellent chance that this will increase in the future or some other cash-distribution method such as the preferred stock proposal advanced by hedge fund manager David Einhorn is instituted.

The only way that such a low valuation could be justified would be if the growth rate slowed dramatically.  Surely, it will fall significantly from the nearly 50% growth numbers  that it has sported for the last five years, but the culture of this company is to continually come up with new products which will appeal to its growing base of satisfied customers, and it has barely scratched the potential in China (where Tim Cook said would be their largest market).  This year Apple will probably seal a deal with China Telecom (CHA), the largest mobile carrier by far in the world.

Here are the YOY growth rates over the past five years:

aapl graph YOY quarterly growth

aapl graph YOY quarterly growth

 

 Admittedly, the current growth rate is the absolute lowest that it has been for the past five years, but look what happened in November 2009 when it was at a similarly low level. The growth rate really took place from that point. Will history repeat itself? According to Zacks Investment Research, analysts expect the Apple’s growth rate in 2014 tooo be 15.30%.

When a company’s future growth rate is less than its cash-adjusted P/E, it should be considered to be a fundamental bargain. That is precisely where AAPL is right now.

There is also a potential technical indicator justification for buying the stock at this time: 

AAPL 50 Day Moving Average

AAPL 50 Day Moving Average 

One of the smartest investing decisions you could have made over the past year was to buy AAPL when it rose above the 50-day moving average and sell it when it fell below that moving average.  This strategy would have picked up the big upward move from late June to October and also picked up the huge drop since that time. 

If you check out the slope of the most recent stock price move as well as the 50-day average, you can see that they are on a collision course to cross over one another in the next two weeks.  This might be the perfect time to get in ahead of this important technical indicator before it actually kicks in.  Even if you don’t believe in technical analysis, there are so many people out there who do believe in it that it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy once it is triggered. 

In addition to both fundamental and possible technical reasons the AAPL is undervalued at its current price, there is the possibility that a public relations coup of epic proportions might be on its way on this very day. 

On December 6, 2012, Apple (AAPL) CEO Tim Cook announced that his company would shift manufacturing of one computer line from Asia to the United States. “Next year we are going to bring some production to the U.S. on the Mac,” Cook told Bloomberg Businessweek. “We’ve been working on this for a long time, and we were getting closer to it. It will happen in 2013. We’re really proud of it. We could have quickly maybe done just assembly, but it’s broader because we wanted to do something more substantial.” 

The announcement was generally discounted as a symbolic effort to improve its public image which has been tarnished in recent years by reports of labor issues at Foxconn, its major contract supplier in China. 

At the time of his announcement, AAPL was trading at $534, or about 10% lower than it closed today Monday, February 11th ($480). Over this same time period, the S&P 500 has gained almost 7%.   Clearly, a more positive public image doesn’t necessarily result in a higher stock price, at least all by itself. 

Analysts expected the amount of production that would be shifted to the United States to be negligible.  Cook stated that they would invest $100 million to ramp up to make Mac computers, a pittance compared to the $121 billion in cash they are sitting on (and which has been the source of multiple suggestions lately on how they can best use this stash). 

But symbolically, if a huge company like Apple shifts some manufacturing jobs to the U.S., joining recent moves by Caterpillar (CAT) and General Electric (GE), and other large companies (according to a Boston Consulting Group survey ), maybe more others might join the party and collectively reduce our unemployment rate that unhappily hovers around 8% these days. 

There seems to be a nationwide movement to “buy local.”  While this usually refers to locally-grown fruits, vegetables and meat products, “buy American” has been a long-standing slogan in our country.  Maybe Apple will figure out that the extra cost of hiring U.S. workers for some manufacturing jobs adds to the bottom line because certain segments of the population will reward them by buying their products rather than Samsung’s. 

It seemed unusual to me that an oft-repeated tag line scrolling across the TV screen on CNN today was that Apple’s Tim Cook would be at President Obama’s State of the Union Address.  There undoubtedly will be dozens of other more important “real” celebrities in attendance, but why did Tim Cook get all the publicity? 

Could it be possible that Mr. Obama will publicly recognize Tim Cook’s promise to return manufacturing jobs to the United States, and give some specifics of how many people might be employed or where the new factories might be located?  Maybe Mr. Cook will be appointed to head up a commission of other large domestic company CEOs to encourage other companies to join the movement to bring back jobs to America. 

Maybe the President will announce that Apple will be making the iWatch using Corning Glass in New York rather than Zhengzhou, or some other positive news which might reflect well on Apple as well as our nation. 

Will such publicity goose up the stock?  It didn’t when the initial announcement was made in December.  But maybe this time it will be different.  An interview on Bloomberg Businessweek is a fairly commonplace event, but a company being recognized in a State of the Union Address is something serious and potentially beneficial to a company whose luster has faded as the stock has plummeted from a high over $700 a few months ago to $480 today.

 

Options Strategy for the Buffalo Wild Wings Earnings Announcement

Monday, February 11th, 2013

 

Last week I wrote an article explaining why I thought that Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR) would move higher after its earnings announcement.  I was totally wrong.  The stock fell by nearly $5. 

In one of my Terry’s Tips portfolios, I placed a diagonal spread which would do best if GMCR moved higher (as I expected it would at the time).  In spite of its moving lower, I closed out the spread the day after earnings for a 30% gain after commissions.  Not a bad return when you are totally wrong. 

Today I would like to propose a similar diagonal spread to be used on another company which will announce earnings next week (on Wednesday, after the close).

Options Strategy for the Buffalo Wild Wings Earnings Announcement 

 

I really don’t know much about Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD).  I have never visited one of their restaurants and don’t think I have ever seen one in New England.  But options on the stock are extremely interesting to me.  The Feb-13 options that expire on Friday, February 15th carry an implied volatility (IV) of 80 while longer-term options such as the Jun-13 series has an IV of only 36.  That means the February options are more than twice as expensive as the June options. 

 

I would like to buy June options and sell February options before Wednesday’s announcement. 

 

I learned everything I could about the company, and wrote an article for Seeking Alpha on it – How To Play The Buffalo Wild Wings Earnings Announcement Next Week.  The most important thing I learned was that some big options players were betting that the stock would tank after earnings (and Jim Cramer suggested selling it as well).  I thought the P/E was too high considering its growth rate which put me in the bearish camp as well.  All these ideas suggested to me that the stock was more likely to fall next week than it is to move higher. 

 

With that scenario in mind, here is the spread that I will be buying (for a $5000 portfolio) with the stock trading about $77: 

 

BTO (buy to open) 6 BWLD Jun-13 85 calls (BWLD130622C85)

 

STO (sell to open) 6 BWLD Feb-13 80 calls (BWLD130216C80) for a debit of $1.40  (buying a diagonal)  

 

If the stock stays flat or goes down by any amount by Friday’s close, the Feb-13 80 calls will expire worthless and I will end up holding Jun-13 85 calls which should have a value well in excess of $1.40 (they are worth $3.60 right now).  The greatest gain for this spread would be if the stock edged up to $80 and the February calls expired worthless while the June calls might be worth more than they are right now.  You can see how this spread can make money even if you aren’t right about how you think about the stock. 

 

The above diagonal spread would require a maintenance requirement of $500 per spread in addition to the $140 cost to buy the spread.  This is not a loan like a margin purchase would involve, but the broker puts a hold on $500 in your account that can’t be used for other purposes.  The reason for this maintenance requirement is that theoretically you could lose that much if the stock rose sharply and you had to buy back the Feb-80 calls, and then you did nothing for five months and let the June options expire worthless.  Of course, since the June options have five additional months of life, they would have a good value if you sold them next week instead of waiting.  This means that from a practical standpoint, the $500 potential loss is not really totally at risk because you plan to sell the June options next week while they still have a good value.  

 

Just in case I am wrong in my assessment of this company, I will also place the following diagonal spread:

 

BTO (buy to open) 4 BWLD Jun-13 70 puts (BWLD130622P70)

 

STO (sell to open) 4 BWLD Feb-13 75 puts (BWLD130216P75) for a debit of $.90  (buying a diagonal)  

 

There will not be a maintenance requirement on this spread because you can’t lose $500 on both this spread and the call spread placed above.  This put spread will do best if the stock falls to $75 and expires worthless while the June 70 puts should increase in value (currently $3.80).  If the stock moves higher, above $75, the February 75 puts expire worthless and the June 70 puts will retain some value because they have five more months of remaining life. 

 

If the stock ends up between $75 and $80, both spreads should make excellent gains.  Losses should come about only if the stock moves over 8% on the upside or over 10% on the downside.  That is quite a large range of possible prices for the two days the options will be held.  

 

If you are totally bearish on the stock you would only place the diagonal call spread.  If you are strongly bullish on the stock you would only place the diagonal put spread. It seems a little ironic that the best spread to buy if you think the stock is headed down uses calls while the best spread to buy if you think the stock is headed higher uses puts. But that’s the way it is in the crazy world of options. 

I expect these spreads will yield at least the 30% I made last week while being wrong about GMCR.  Just imagine how much you could make if you were right.

Options Strategy for the Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Earnings

Tuesday, February 5th, 2013

 

 

After the market close tomorrow, Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR) will announce quarterly and year-end earnings.  I am quite bullish on the stock, and have written a Seeking Alpha article explaining why – Why Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Will Soar This Week 

(I apologize for its being so long, but as Abraham Lincoln once said in a letter he wrote to a friend, I didn’t have enough time to make it shorter.)

Options Strategy for the Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Earnings

If you I have a strong feeling for a particular stock prior to their making an earnings announcement, there are a couple of strategies I like to employ.  I would like to tell you about one of them today.  It involves a little hedge just in case I am wrong (with this hedge, I won’t lose all my money). 

 

An aggressive strategy if you were very bullish on a stock would be to sell an at-the-money put in the shortest-term option series available (for GMCR, (that would be the Feb2-13 options expiring on Friday February 8, two days after the Wednesday after-close announcement).  Option prices in this series tend to escalate to about double or triple their usual implied volatility, making them very “expensive”.  Since you don’t want to sell any option all by itself (they call that naked selling because that’s how you feel whenever you do it, totally exposed), you must buy some other  put to cover yourself (and avoid a horrendous margin requirement from your broker).  If you bought lower-strike Feb2-13 puts, you would collect a credit on your spread sale (called a vertical put spread), and there would be a maintenance requirement of $100 for each dollar of difference  between the strike prices. 

 

For example, with GMCR selling about $48, you could buy a Feb2-13 43 put and sell a Feb2-13 48 put and collect about $2.  There would be a maintenance requirement of $500 less the $200 you collected from the vertical spread sale.  Your maximum loss is $300 and this would come about if the stock fell to below $43 from the $48 where it was before the announcement. 

 

With this spread, you are hoping that the stock closes on Friday at any price above $48.  If it does, both your long and short puts will expire worthless and you save paying commissions on closing out the positions.  You just end up with $200 (per spread, less commissions) in your account and the maintenance requirement goes away.  You would have made about 65% after commissions on your $300 at risk. 

 

What I do (the hedge) is a little different.  Instead of buying the lower-strike put in the same series, I go out to a longer period series.  I might buy a Feb-13 43 put (which expires February 15, a week later) instead of the Feb2-13 43 put.  It would only cost me about $.30 more (i.e., I would collect about $1.75 instead of $2.00 at the beginning), but if I wrong about GMCR and the stock falls instead of moving higher, this put might have a decent value when the Feb2-13 45 put expires in the money.  If the stock is below $48 at expiration, I will buy it back on Friday and sell my Feb-13 43 put at the same time.   

 

If the stock falls over $3, I will probably lose money on the original spread, but I will gain some of the loss back from selling the Feb-13 43 put.  It is not a perfect hedge, but it reduces the maximum loss from $300. 

 

I have placed this exact spread in my personal account – it is called buying a diagonal put spread.  I received $1.75 and hope to collect that much per spread on Friday (plus whatever I can collect from selling the Feb-13 43 put that that has a week of remaining life.

 

 

A Post-Earnings Starbucks (SBUX) Play

Monday, January 28th, 2013

In our efforts to find  new and different option opportunities in this world of 5-year-low SPY option prices, we have been checking out pre-earnings-announcement strategies. 

Just prior to the earnings announcement, implied volatility (IV) of the options which expire just after the announcement escalates due to the uncertainty of what the earnings, sales, margins, or guidance might be. 

We have had some success buying calendar spreads at strikes below, near, and above the stock price in advance of an earnings announcement.  These spreads have a tremendous IV advantage (the options we sell have a higher IV, making them more “expensive” than the options we buy). 

Last week, we used this strategy on Starbucks (SBUX).  When we used just the calendar spreads, we managed to make 11% after commissions by selling the spreads the day after the announcement. This was out fourth consecutive week of making pre-earnings announcement gains. 

In addition to the calendar  spreads, we also bought some extra straddles or strangles (both puts and calls) which were designed to protect the entire portfolio against a loss in case the stock moved big-time after the announcement.  This time around, with SBUX edging up about $1.50 after the announcement, the straddle-strangle protection lost money when IV for those options plummeted after the announcement, and the portfolio that used both calendars and strangles broke even for the week. 

While studying the past history of SBUX we discovered an interesting pattern which is the subject of this week’s Idea of the Week. 

Terry

 A Post-Earnings Starbucks (SBUX) Play 

Last week SBUX rose $2.00 for the week, spurred higher by a good earnings report and the company re-affirming guidance.  We checked back over the last 13 times when SBUX rose by $2.00 or more in a week and learned that in the subsequent weeks, 10 times at some point during the week, SBUX traded at least $1.00 lower. 

With SBUX trading at $56.81, I will be buying Mar-13 57.5 puts, hopefully paying about $2.19, Friday’s closing ask price.  Immediately after making this purchase I will place an order to sell those puts for $.70 higher than what I paid for them (if the stock falls by $1.00 this put option should move $.70 higher).   

If this trade executes, I should make about 30% on my money after commissions. 

If the stock starts moving higher instead of lower, I will sell some Feb1-13 57.5 puts to reduce or eliminate possible losses (but I will be careful not to sell quite as many puts as I own long ones so that if the stock does fall, I should still make a gain). 

I expect to close out the positions by the end of the week unless the stock has edged up to being very close to $57.50 in which case I might sell the next Weekly series 57,5 puts because the time premium should be quite high (and I have six more weeks over which I can continue to  sell puts at this strike so that I can get back my initial $2.19 back, and more).

A Remarkably Safe Way To Play The Apple Earnings Announcement

Tuesday, January 22nd, 2013

Apple announces earnings Wednesday after the close and I have come up with a strategy that looks like it can make a decent gain for the week (ranging from 5% to 15%) with almost no chance of incurring a loss. 

The big downside of the strategy is that it requires an investment of about $16,000.  I understand that many subscribers are looking for less costly option investments.

 However, if you can afford an investment of this size, check out the Seeking Alpha article I wrote just yesterday. 

Terry 

Here is the link – A Remarkably Safe Way To Play The Apple Earnings Announcement 

This is the third week in a row that I have offered a strategy centering on the unusually-high option prices in the series that expires just after an earnings announcement. 

The first play was for Wells Fargo – How to Play the Wells Fargo Earnings Announcement for Tomorrow.  This one gained 44% after commissions. 

The second play involved eBay – How to Play the EBAY Earnings Announcement.  I waited too long to close out my spreads this time around (many subscribers gained 24% or more).  But I did manage to make 11.6% after commissions, still not a bad week. 

I think this week’s earnings-announcement play is the safest one yet in spite of the high cost  requirement.  I am also sharing with paid subscribers a most promising play in Starbucks (SBUX).

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Success Stories

I have been trading the equity markets with many different strategies for over 40 years. Terry Allen's strategies have been the most consistent money makers for me. I used them during the 2008 melt-down, to earn over 50% annualized return, while all my neighbors were crying about their losses.

~ John Collins