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A Short Summary of the Greeks

Tuesday, November 15th, 2016

Academics have developed a number of mathematical measures to get a better handle on stock option prices.  They call them the Greeks, even though some of the measures really don’t exist as Greek words, but sound they should.

Several subscribers have written to say that the Greeks totally befuddle them.  This little report is my attempt to summarize them in 100 words or less (for each Greek, that is).  I hope it might make them a little less confusing to you.

Terry

 A Short Summary of the Greeks

Delta is the number of cents an option will go up if the stock goes up by $1.00.  If you multiply the delta of an option by the number of options you own, you get a figure that represents the equivalent number of shares of stock you own.  If you own 10 options that carry a delta of 60, you own the equivalent of 600 shares of stock.  (If the stock goes up by $1, your positions will increase by $600 in value, just as if you owned 600 shares of the stock).

Your Net Delta Position is the sum total of all the delta values of the options you own, less the delta values of the options you are short (i.e., sold to someone else).  The closer that your Net Delta Position is to zero, the less you will be affected by changes in the price of the stock.  Generally, your goal is to remain delta neutral (i.e., as close to zero as possible).  However, if the market is rising quickly, you want to maintain a reasonably positive net delta value rather than zero.

What is reasonable?  How far is up?  Why is a mouse when it spins? Imponderable questions, all.  (I put this paragraph here to let you know that if you think the Greeks are confusing, it could be worse.  You could really go crazy if you tried to understand some questions).

Gamma is a number that tells you how much your delta will change if the stock goes up by $1.00.  So if you have a net delta position of 600 (meaning you will be $600 richer if the stock goes up $1), and your net gamma is –800, you know that once the stock has gone up that dollar, you will be short the equivalent of 200 shares of stock, and wishing that the stock would fall.  Gamma helps you know the extent, if any, of the upside protection you possess.

Theta is the amount that an option will fall in value in a single day.  If the price of the stock remains flat, all options decay in value every day.  Theta tells you how much. The heart of the 10K Strategy is that we own long-term calls which carry a low theta value, and we sell to someone else short-term calls which carry a higher theta value.  Our profit comes in the difference between these two decay rates.

The ultimate goal of the 10K Strategy is to maximize the position Theta value while maintaining a low net Delta value and a low net Gamma value to protect against adverse stock price changes.  

How to Make 40% With a Single Options Trade on a Blue Chip Stock

Wednesday, November 9th, 2016

Every once in a while, market volatility soars. The most popular measure of volatility is VIX, the so-called “fear index’ which is the average volatility of options on SPY (the S&P 500 tracking stock). By the way, SPY weekly options are not included in the calculation of VIX, something which tends to understate the value when something specific like today’s election is an important reason affecting the current level of volatility.

Today I would like to share with you a trade I recommended to paying subscribers to Terry’s Tips last week. We could close it out today for a 27% profit after commissions in one week, but most of us are hanging onto our positions for another couple of weeks because we still believe the spread will result in 75% gain for three weeks when the market settles down after today’s election.

I hope you can learn something from this latest way to benefit from an elevated volatility level in the market.

Terry

How to Make 40% With a Single Options Trade on a Blue Chip Stock

As much as you might like, you can’t actually buy (or sell short) VIX, so there is no direct way to bet whether volatility will go up or down with this popular measure. However, you can buy and sell puts and calls on VIX, and execute spreads just as long as both long and short sides of the spread are in the same expiration series.

You are not allowed to buy calendar or diagonal spreads with VIX options since each expiration series is a distinct series not connected to other series. If you could buy calendars, the prices would look exceptional. There are times when you could actually buy a calendar spread at a credit, but unfortunately, they don’t allow such trades.

Vertical spreads are fair game, however, and make interesting plays if you have a feel for which way you think volatility is headed. Last week, we had a time when VIX was higher than it has been for some time, pushed up by election uncertainties, the Fed’s next interest rate increase, and the recent 9-day consecutive drop in market prices. When VIX was over 22, we sent out a special trade idea based on the likelihood that once the election is over, VIX might retreat. For the last few years, the most popular range for VIX to hang out has been in the 12-14 area. Obviously, this is a lot lower than last’s week’s 22-23 range.

If you look at a chart of VIX, you will see that it has moved above 20 on only 7 occasions over the past three years, and the great majority of time, it quickly retreated to a much lower level. Only once did it remain over 20 for more than a couple of weeks or so. Back in 2008, VIX moved up to astronomical levels and stayed there for several months, but if you recall those days, with the implosion of Lehman Bros., Long Term Capital, and bank bailouts all around, there was serious fears that our entire financial system might soon collapse. This time around, it seemed like the most fearful consideration was the American election, and specifically that Donald Trump might win and market uncertainty would surely soar even further. This does not feel like the cataclysmic possibilities that we were facing in 2008.

This is the trade we suggested, based on our assumption that Donald Trump would probably not prevail and not much different would happen out of Washington going forward:

BTO 1 VIX 23Nov16 21 call (VIX161123C21)
STO 1 VIX 23Nov16 15 call (VIX161123C15) for a credit of $2.60 (selling a vertical)

This spread involves an investment (and maximum risk) of $342.50. There is a $600 maintenance requirement (the difference between the strike prices) from which the $260 received less $2.50 commission or $257.50 must be deducted. If VIX closes at any number below 15 on November 23, both calls would expire worthless and this spread would make $257.50 on the maximum risk of $342.50, or 75%.

Maybe 3 weeks was not a long enough time to expect VIX to plummet back to 15. An argument could be made that it would be better to wait until after the Fed’s December rate decision has been made, and place this same spread in the 20Jan17 series. The price (and potential gain) would be about the same (I have sold this same spread in that series in my personal account as well). Of course, you have to wait 2 ½ months for it to come about, but 75% is a sweet number to dream about collecting in such a short time.

Since we placed the above spreads a week ago, VIX has fallen from 23 to a little over 18 today (apparently when the FBI exonerated Hillary, it looked less likely that Trump would win). It only needs to fall a little over 3 more points after the election today to deliver 75% to us on November 23rd. We like our chances here. Some subscribers are taking their gains today, just in case Mr. Trump gets elected. They can buy the spread back today for $1.65, well below the $2.60 they collected from selling it. I am personally holding out for the bigger potential gain.

Halloween Special Expires at Midnight Tonight

Monday, October 31st, 2016

Halloween Special Expires at Midnight Tonight

I want to send you a copy of the October 29, 2016 Saturday Report, the weekly email sent to paying subscribers to Terry’s Tips.  This report details how our 13 actual portfolios perform each week.    Last week was a down one for the market (SPY lost 0.7%), and many of our portfolios experienced a similar loss.  Others did considerably better.

The portfolio based on Johnson and Johnson (JNJ) gained 25% while the stock rose 1.7%.  The portfolio based on Facebook (FB) gained 8.7% even though FB fell by 0.6% last week.  This portfolio was started with $6000 one year and three weeks ago, and is now worth $13,449, a gain of 124%.

One of our portfolios invests in companies which are about to announce earnings, and closes out the positions on the Friday after the announcement.  Last week, we closed out our spreads in Mastercard (MA) which had been put on only a week and a half earlier.  We enjoyed a gain of 34.3% (after commissions, as is the case for all of these portfolios).

Finally, we have a portfolio that is designed as protection against a market crash or correction.  While SPY fell only 0.6%, this bearish portfolio picked up 13.6% (admittedly, this was an unusually positive result which rarely occurs to this extent, but sometimes we are a little lucky).

Watching how these portfolios unfold over time in the Saturday Report is a wonderful (and easy) way to learn the intricacies of option trading.  You can get started today by coming on board at our half-off Halloween Special which expires at midnight tonight. I will personally send you the October 29th Saturday Report so you can start immediately.

Most of these portfolios employ what we call the 10K Strategy.  It involves selling short-term options on individual stocks and using longer-term (or LEAPS) as collateral.  It is sort of like writing calls, except that you don’t have to put up all that cash to buy 100 or 1000 shares of the stock.  The 10K Strategy is sort of like writing calls on steroids.  It is an amazingly simple strategy that really works with the one proviso that you select a stock that stays flat or moves higher over time.

Lowest Subscription Price Ever

As a Halloween special, we are offering the lowest subscription price than we have ever offered – our full package, including several valuable case study reports, my White Paper, which explains my favorite option strategies in detail, and shows you exactly how to carry them out on your own, a 14-day options tutorial program which will give you a solid background on option trading, and two months of our Saturday Reports full of tradable option ideas.  All this for a one-time fee of $39.95, less than half the cost of the White Paper alone ($79.95).

For this lowest-price-ever $39.95 offer, click here, enter Special Code HWN16 (or HWN16P for Premium Service – $79.95).

 If you are ready to commit for a longer time period, you can save even more with our half-price offer on our Premium service for an entire year.  This special offer includes everything in our basic service, and in addition, real-time trade alerts and full access to all of our portfolios so that you can Auto-Trade or follow any or all of them.  We have several levels of our Premium service, but this is the maximum level since it includes full access to all nine portfolios which are available for Auto-Trade.  A year’s subscription to this maximum level would cost $1080.  With this half-price offer, the cost for a full year would be only $540.  Use the Special Code MAX16P.

 This is a time-limited offer.  You must order by midnight tonight, October 31, 2016.  That’s when the half-price offer expires, and you will have to go back to the same old investment strategy that you have had limited success with for so long (if you are like most investors).

This is the perfect time to give you and your family the perfect Halloween treat that is designed to deliver higher financial returns for the rest of your investing life.

I look forward to helping you survive Halloween by sharing this valuable investment information with you at the lowest price ever. It may take you a little homework, but I am sure you will end up thinking it was well worth the investment.

Happy trading.

Terry

P.S.  If you would have any questions about this offer or Terry’s Tips, please call Seth Allen, our Senior Vice President at 800-803-4595.  Or make this investment in yourself at the lowest price ever offered in our 15 years of publication – only $39.95 for our entire package.  Get it here using Special Code HWN16 (or HWN16P for Premium Service – $79.95).   Do it today, before you forget and lose out.  This offer expires at midnight tonight, October 31, 2016.

 

 

Halloween Special – Lowest Subscription Price Ever

Tuesday, October 18th, 2016

Halloween Special – Lowest Subscription Price Ever

Why must Halloween be only for the kids? You got them all dressed up in cute little costumes and trekked around the neighborhood in hopes of bringing home a full basket of cavity-inducing treats and smiles all around.

But how about a treat for yourself? You may soon have some big dental bills to pay. What if you wanted to learn how to dramatically improve your investment results? Don’t you deserve a little something to help make that possible?

What better Halloween treat for yourself than a subscription to Terry’s Tips at the lowest price ever? You will learn exactly how we have set up and carried out an options strategy that doubled the starting portfolio value (usually $5000) of five individual investment accounts which traded Costco (COST), Apple (AAPL), Nike (NKE), Starbucks (SBUX), and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), including all commissions. These portfolios took between 7 and 17 months to double their starting value, and every single portfolio managed to accomplish that goal.

One year and one week ago, we set up another portfolio to trade Facebook (FB) options, this time starting with $6000. It has now gained over 97% in value. We expect that in the next week or two, it will surge above $12,000 and accomplish the same milestone that the other five portfolios did.

Many subscribers to Terry’s Tips have followed along with these portfolios since the beginning, having all their trades made for them through the Auto-Trade program at thinkorswim. Others have followed our trades on their own at another broker. Regardless of where they traded, they are all happy campers right now.

We have made these gains with what we call the 10K Strategy. It involves selling short-term options on individual stocks and using longer-term (or LEAPS) as collateral. It is sort of like writing calls, except that you don’t have to put up all that cash to buy 100 or 1000 shares of the stock. The 10K Strategy is sort of like writing calls on steroids. It is an amazingly simple strategy that really works with the one proviso that you select a stock that stays flat or moves higher over time.

How else in today’s investment world of near-zero dividend yields can you expect to make these kinds of returns? Find out exactly how to do it by buying yourself a Halloween treat for yourself and your family. They will love you for it.

Lowest Subscription Price Ever

As a Halloween special, we are offering the lowest subscription price than we have ever offered – our full package, including all the free reports, my White Paper, which explains my favorite option strategies in detail, and shows you exactly how to carry them out on your own, a 14-day options tutorial program which will give you a solid background on option trading, and two months of our weekly newsletter full of tradable option ideas. All this for a one-time fee of $39.95, less than half the cost of the White Paper alone ($79.95).

For this lowest-price-ever $39.95 offer, click here, enter Special Code HWN16 (or HWN16P for Premium Service – $79.95).

If you are ready to commit for a longer time period, you can save even more with our half-price offer on our Premium service for an entire year. This special offer includes everything in our basic service, and in addition, real-time trade alerts and full access to all 9 of our current actual portfolios so that you can Auto-Trade or follow any or all of them. We have several levels of our Premium service, but this is the maximum level since it includes full access to all nine portfolios. A year’s subscription to this maximum level would cost $1080. With this half-price offer, the cost for a full year would be only $540. Use the Special Code MAX16P.

This is a time-limited offer. You must order by Monday, October 31, 2016. That’s when the half-price offer expires, and you will have to go back to the same old investment strategy that you have had limited success with for so long (if you are like most investors).

This is the perfect time to give you and your family the perfect Halloween treat that is designed to deliver higher financial returns for the rest of your investing life.

I look forward to helping you get the school year started off right by sharing this valuable investment information with you at the lowest price ever. It may take you a little homework, but I am sure you will end up thinking it was well worth the investment.

Happy trading.

Terry

P.S. If you would have any questions about this offer or Terry’s Tips, please call Seth Allen, our Senior Vice President at 800-803-4595. Or make this investment in yourself at the lowest price ever offered in our 15 years of publication – only $39.95 for our entire package. Get it here using Special Code HWN16 (or HWN16P for Premium Service – $79.95). Do it today, before you forget and lose out. This offer expires on Monday, October 31, 2016.

 

Calendar Spreads Tweak #4

Wednesday, September 21st, 2016

Today I would like to discuss how you can use calendar spreads for a short-term strategy based around the date when a stock goes ex-dividend. I will tell you exactly how I used this strategy a week ago when SPY paid its quarterly dividend.

Terry

Calendar Spreads Tweak #4

Four times a year, SPY pays a dividend to owners of record on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December. The current dividend is about $1.09. Each of these events presents a unique opportunity to make some money by buying calendar spreads using puts to take advantage of the huge time premium in the puts in the days leading up to the dividend day.

Since the stock goes down by the amount of the dividend on the ex-dividend day, the option market prices the amount of the dividend into the option prices. Check out the situation for SPY on Wednesday, September 14, 2016, two days before an expected $1.09 dividend would be payable. At the time of these prices, SPY was trading just about $213.70.

Facebook Bid Ask Puts Calls Sept 2016

Facebook Bid Ask Puts Calls Sept 2016

Note that the close-to-the-money options at the 213.5 strike show a bid of $1.11 for calls and $1.84 for puts. The slightly out-of-the-money put options are trading for nearly double the prices for those same distance-out calls. The market has priced in the fact that the stock will fall by the amount of the dividend on the ex-dividend day. In this case, that day is Friday.

SPY closed at $215.28 on Thursday. Friday’s closing price was $213.37, which is $1.91 lower. However, the change for the day was indicated as -$.82. The difference ($1.09) was the size of the dividend.

On Wednesday and Thursday, I decided to sell some of those puts that had such large premiums in them to see if there might be some opportunity there. While SPY was trading in the $213 to $216 range, I bought put calendar spreads at the 214.5, 214, 213.5, and 213 strikes, buying 21Oct16 puts at the even-strike numbers and 19Oct16 puts for the strikes ending in .5 (only even-number strikes are offered in the regular Friday 21Oct16 options). Obviously, I sold the 16Sep16 puts in each calendar spread.

Note: On August 30th, the CBOE offered a new series of SPY options that expire on Wednesday rather than Friday. The obvious reason for this offering involves the dividend situation. Investors who write calls against their SPY stock are in a real bind when they sell calls that expire on an ex-dividend Friday. First, there is very little time premium in those calls. Second, there is a serious risk that the call will be exercised by the holder to take the stock and capture the dividend. If the owner of SPY sold the series that expired on Wednesday rather than Friday, the potential problem would be avoided.

I paid an average of $2.49 including commissions for the four calendar spreads and sold them on Friday for an average of $2.88 after commissions. I sold every spread for more money that it cost (including commissions). My net gain for the two days of trading was just over 15% after commissions.

The stock fell $.82 (after accounting for the $1.09 dividend). If it had gone up by that amount, I expect that my 15% gain would also have been there. It is unclear if the gains would have been there if SPY had made a big move, say $2 or more in either direction on Friday. My rough calculations showed that there would still be a profit, but it would be less than 15%. Single-day moves of more than $2 are a little unusual, however, so it might not be much to be concerned about.

Bottom line, I am delighted with the 15% gain, and will probably try it again in three months (at the December expiration). In this world of near-zero interest rates, many investors would be happy with 15% for an entire year. I collected mine in just two days.

Trading SPY options is particularly easy because of the extreme liquidity of those options. In most cases, I was able to get an execution at the mid-point price of the calendar spread bid-ask range. I never paid $.01 more or received more than $.01 less than the mid-point price when trading these calendar spreads.

While liquidity is not as great in most options markets, it might be interesting to try this same strategy with other dividend-payers such as JNJ where the dividend is also over $1.00. I regularly share these kinds of trading opportunities with Terry’s Tips Insiders so that they can follow along in their own accounts if they wish.

Happy trading.

Calendar Spreads Tweak #1

Thursday, September 1st, 2016

This week we will continue our discussion of a popular option spread – the calendar spread which is also called a time spread or horizontal spread. We will check out the feasibility of buying spreads at different strike prices in an effort to reduce risk.

Terry

Calendar Spreads Tweak #1

First, let’s look at a typical calendar spread on Facebook (FB). Last Friday, when FB was trading about $124.20, we bought 5-month-out 20Jan17 calls and sold one-month-out 30Sep16 calls. The spread would cost $5.43 ($543), and this is what the risk profile graph looked like:

Face book Risk Profile May 2016

Face book Risk Profile May 2016

Note that the break-even range extends from about $3 on the downside to $5 on the upside, a range of $8. (The loss or gain when the short calls expire on September 30 is indicated in the column on the right titled “P/L Day.”) The maximum gain is precisely at the $125 price, and it is about $150 which would result in a nice 27% gain for the month.

Next, I tested whether I could expand the break-even range by adding the same calendar spread at the 120 and 130 strike prices (the 20Jan17 series only offers strikes at $5 increments, unlike the weekly series). The 120 spread would cost $464 and the 130 spread would be $483, so buying all three spreads would involve an investment of about $1500. Here is what the risk profile graph looks like for the three spreads:

Face Book Risk Profile 2 September 2016

Face Book Risk Profile 2 September 2016

Note that the break-even range is almost exactly the same with the three spreads. The maximum gain is also about $150, but with three spreads, it would mean a 10% gain rather than a 27% one because you would have about $1500 invested rather than $543. Clearly, adding calendar spreads at strikes $5 above and below the current stock price is not the way to go – about triple the investment, the same expected maximum gain, and about the same break-even range.

Presumably, you are trading calendars on a stock you believe is headed higher. You might choose to buy an at-the-money calendar and a second one at a higher strike. If you do this, your investment is about $1000 and this is the risk profile graph:

Face Book Risk Profile 3 September 2016

Face Book Risk Profile 3 September 2016

The break-even range is once again about $8 from the lowest point to the highest, but it extends just over a dollar on the downside and $7 on the upside. If you are bullish on the stock, this seems to be a better way to go. The maximum gain is about $150 once again, and this results in a 15% gain for the month. The best thing about this choice of two spreads is that the maximum gain can be achieved across a 5-point range rather than being available at only one precise price point.

Another strategy might be to buy the 125 calendar spread, and then wait to see which way the stock moves, and then buy another calendar in that direction. As we have seen, the cost of an at-the-money calendar is not much greater than the same calendar which is $5 away from the money. The big risk with this strategy is that the stock might whipsaw. For example, it might fall $3 which might prompt you to buy a 120 calendar, and then shoot higher, going up to $128 which might cause you to add a new spread at the 130 strike.

As usual, there are no easy ways to make sure gains in this world. The best bet seems to be to take a position that the stock is headed in one particular direction (usually up unless you are trading on some ETP that is destined to go down, like VXX), and combine an at-the-money spread with one at a higher strike price. Most months you should be making a significant gain if your stock behaves as you expect, and that gain can materialize over a nice range of possible prices.

The Difference Between Buying Stock and Trading Options

Monday, August 15th, 2016

This week I would like discuss a little about the differences between buying stock and trading options. I would also like to tell you a little about a specific recommendation I made to paying Terry’s Tips subscribers this weekend in my weekly Saturday Report.

Terry

The Difference Between Buying Stock and Trading Options

If the truth be known, investing in stocks is pretty much like playing checkers. Any 12-year-old can do it. You really don’t need much experience or understanding. If you can read, you can buy stock. And you probably will do just about as well as anyone else because it’s basically a roulette wheel choice. Most people reject that idea, of course. Like the residents of Lake Wobegone, stock buyers believe that they are all above average – they can reliably pick the right ones just about every time.

Trading options is harder, and many people recognize that they probably aren’t above average in that arena. Buying and selling options is more like playing chess. It can be (and is, for anyone who is serious about it) a life-time learning experience.

You don’t see columns in the newspaper about interesting checker strategies, but you see a ton of pundits telling you why you should buy particular stocks. People with little understanding or experience buy stocks every day, and most of their transactions involve buying from professionals with far more resources and brains. Most stock buyers never figure out that when they make their purchase, about 90% of the time, they are buying from those professionals. Those smart guys with all the resources are the ones who are selling the stock while you are buying it at that price.

Option investing takes study and understanding and discipline that the purchase of stock does not require. Every investor must decide for himself or herself if they are willing to make the time and study commitment necessary to be successful at option trading. Most people are too lazy.

It is a whole lot easier to play a decent game of checkers than it is to play a decent game of chess. But for some of us, options investing is a whole lot more challenging, and ultimately more rewarding.

Last week I told you about three stock-based Terry’s Tips option portfolios which had doubled in value and a fourth portfolio that was almost there (and it is only 10 months old). I didn’t tell you about two other portfolios that we also carry out which are not available for Auto-Trade at thinkorswim but which are quite easy to trade on your own because they only involve one trade for an entire year (and with luck, options on both side of the spread will expire worthless so no closing trade is necessary).

We have two of these portfolios, and they are set up each January. So far in 2016, while the market (SPY) has gained 4.6%, these two option portfolios have gained 43.9%, and 56.2% without a single adjusting trade having been made. We could close either portfolio right now and take those gains off the table after paying a small commission on one or two spreads. If you buy stock rather than trading options, you will probably never see gains like this, even if you are lucky enough to pick one of the best stocks in the entire market.

This weekend, I recommended another similar spread trade that we are setting up in a new portfolio so we can watch it evolve over time. Like the above two portfolios, it cannot be Auto-Traded but is easy to set up yourself (you can call it in to your broker if you are not familiar with placing option spread trades). This spread will expire on January 20, 2017, about six months from now.

The underlying is a sort of weird derivative of a derivative of a derivative that doesn’t make much sense to anyone (even the Nobel Prize winning managers of Long Term Capital didn’t fully understand the implications of this kind of instrument). The long-term price action of this equity can be measured, however, and it showed that if this spread had been placed every month for the last 50 months, the spread would have made a profit 44 times and it would have lost money 6 times. The average gain for all the trades worked out to 38% for six months (including all the losses in those 6 losing instances). The annualized gain would rise to 90% if you re-invested your money and the average profit at the end of the first six months. Of course, historical price action doesn’t always repeat itself in future months, but if you see how this instrument is engineered, you can see that the pattern should be expected to continue.

This spread idea is so good that I feel I must restrict sharing it with only paying subscribers to the Terry’s Tips newsletter. If you come on board, you can see the full report where I show the profit from this trade for each of the last 50 months and the exact spread that should be placed. I bought more of the exact same spread in my personal account today at the same price I indicated it could be bought in the last Saturday Report.

How to Trade Out of an Earnings-Related Options Play

Thursday, July 7th, 2016

A little over a week ago, I told you about trades I was making in advance of Nike’s earnings announcement. Lots of things didn’t quite work out the way I had expected they would, but I still managed to make over 50% for the week on my trades. There were some good learning experiences concerning how to trade out of calendar spreads once the announcement has been made. You need to tread water until the short options you sold expire and you can close out the spreads, and that can present some challenges.

Today I would like to share those learning experiences with you in case you make similar trades prior to a company’s earnings announcement.

Happy trading.

Terry

How to Trade Out of an Earnings-Related Options Play

According to Openfolio, a site where about 70,000 users share information on their investments, three out of four investors lost money in June, with an average return of -0.10%. This compares to the results of the Terry’s Tips’ Auto-Traded portfolios where 7 of 8 portfolios gained, and the average gain was 15.1%. Our only losing portfolio was a special bet that the short-term price of oil would fall. It didn’t, and we lost a little, but that was nothing compared to 4 of the portfolios which gained over 20% for the month.

One of our portfolios trades options on Nike (NKE) which announced earnings after the close last Tuesday, June 28. We had spreads in place similar to those that I told you about last week (and several others as well). The portfolio managed to gain 29% in June, something that often happens during the month when an earnings announcement takes place.

On the Monday before the earnings announcement, with the stock trading at about $52, I placed these trades (at higher quantities):

Buy to Open 1 NKE 29Jul16 52.5 put (NKE160729P52.5)
Sell to Open 1 NKE 1Jul16 52.5 put (NKE160701P52.5) for a debit of $.50 (buying a calendar)

Buy to Open 1 NKE 29Jul16 55 call (NKE160729C55)
Sell to Open 1 NKE 1Jul16 55 call (NKE160701C55) for a debit of $.50 (buying a calendar)

In my note to you, I said I thought you could buy these spreads for $.43 ($43) each, but that was based on the prior Friday’s prices. I was disappointed to have to pay so much more, but I still believed it was a pretty good bet.

When the stock fell closer to $51, I bought half as many spreads as the above two at the 50 strike just in case the stock continued to trade lower. When you buy calendar spreads, you select strike prices where you hope the stock will end up when the short options expire, as the at-the-money strike spread will be the most profitable. Buying spreads at several strikes gives you more places where you can end up being happy, but your maximum gain is reduced a bit when you buy the increased protection that owning several strikes provides.

After I made the above trades on Monday, I suffered my second disappointment. As I had seen so many times before, in the last day before the announcement (Tuesday), the stock rallied $1.10 and closed at $53.09. If I had anticipated this better, I would not have bought the spreads at the 50 strike. In after-hours trading after the announcement (earnings were a penny above estimates but sales disappointed a little and outlook was about what was expected), the stock tanked to about $50. As we have often seen, this initial move was quickly reversed. When the market opened on Wednesday, it had moved up to $54.50.

While my positions were showing a nice paper profit at the open on Wednesday, I had to wait to near Friday’s close to get the full amount I was hoping for. I was in a bad position, however, because most of my spreads were at strike prices which were below the stock price. In option terms, my positions were negative net delta – this means that if the stock went up another dollar, I would lose money. I aggressively changed to a neutral net delta condition by closing out the lowest-strike put calendars (at the 50 strike) and changing some 52.5 calendars to diagonals, buying back in-the-money 52.5 short calls and replacing them with at-the-money 55 calls and slightly out-of-the-money 56 calls in the same 01Jul16 series.

Then I encountered my third disappointment. I had expected implied volatility (IV) of the long 29Jul16 series to be 27 after the announcement based on recent history, but it ended up being 24 which dampened my expected results. That meant the option prices would not be as high as I expected when I went to sell them. I had figured an at-the-money spread could be sold for $1.40, and the closest spread I had (the 55 strike) only yielded $.97 (however, this was almost double what I paid for it). By Friday, the stock moved above the top strike price I held (55) and closed at $55.61. Since I managed to stay neutral net delta and actually pick up some extra premium in the last three days from the new at-the-money calls I sold, I ended up making over 50% on my total investment for the week. It was a lot of work but surely worth the effort.

I had set out to make 100% in a single week, and experienced disappointments in three different areas, but at the end of the day, I was pleased to take in half that amount for the week.

What could be taken away from this play was; 1) that the stock often rises in the last day before the announcement (probably legging into the calendars would have been more profitable, but more risky), 2) the initial move after the announcement is usually reversed, and 3) it is important to make adjustments to create a neutral net delta condition for all your spreads until the short options expire.

Lowest Subscription Price Ever Still Available

Thursday, June 9th, 2016

This month marks the 15th year in business for Terry’s Tips.  We are celebrating this event by offering you our lowest subscription price ever.  If you ever wanted to learn all about the wonderful world of options and my favorite options strategy, now is the time to act.

Lowest Subscription Price Ever

As our birthday present to you, we are offering the lowest subscription price than we have ever offered – our full package, including all the free reports, my White Paper, which explains my favorite option strategies in detail, and shows you exactly how to carry them out on your own, a 14-day options tutorial program which will give you a solid background on option trading, and two months of our weekly newsletter full of tradable option ideas.  All this for a one-time fee of $39.95, less than half the cost of the White Paper alone ($79.95).

For this lowest-price-ever $39.95 offer, click here, enter Special Code 15Year (or 15YearP for Premium Service – $79.95).  The premium service offers you real-time trade alerts so you can follow along with our trades if you wish, or participate in Auto-Trade at thinkorswim.

 This is a time-limited offer.  You must order by Wednesday, June 15, 2016. There’s no need or reason to wait that long, but that’s when the half-price offer expires, and you will have to go back to the same old investment strategy that you have had limited success with for so long (if you are like most investors).

This is the perfect time to our 15th birthday with us, and give yourself and your family the perfect birthday gift that is designed to deliver higher financial returns for the rest of your investing life.  It may take you a little homework on your part, but I am sure you will end up thinking it was well worth the investment.

Happy trading,

Terry

P.S. For this lowest-price-ever $39.95 offer for the complete Terry’s Tips package (including my White Paper for which over 10,000 people have paid our regular price $79.95), click here, enter Special Code 15Year (or 15YearP for Premium Service – $79.95).  It could be the best investment decision you ever make.

Lowest Subscription Price Ever

Tuesday, June 7th, 2016

This month marks the 15th year in business for Terry’s Tips. We are celebrating this event by offering you our lowest subscription price ever. Read on.

Today I would also like to share with you a small bet I made today on Nike. It should make 60% in 8 months even if the stock does not go up a penny. It can actually fall a little and you would still make 60%. But the big news today is our 15th birthday celebration offer.

Lowest Subscription Price Ever

As our birthday present to you, we are offering the lowest subscription price than we have ever offered – our full package, including all the free reports, my White Paper, which explains my favorite option strategies in detail, and shows you exactly how to carry them out on your own, a 14-day options tutorial program which will give you a solid background on option trading, and two months of our weekly newsletter full of tradable option ideas. All this for a one-time fee of $39.95, less than half the cost of the White Paper alone ($79.95).

For this lowest-price-ever $39.95 offer, click here, enter Special Code 15Year (or 15YearP for Premium Service – $79.95). The premium service offers you real-time trade alerts so you can follow along with our trades if you wish, or participate in Auto-Trade at thinkorswim.

This is a time-limited offer. You must order by Wednesday, June 15, 2016. That’s when the half-price offer expires, and you will have to go back to the same old investment strategy that you have had limited success with for so long (if you are like most investors).

This is the perfect time to our 15th birthday with us, and give yourself and your family the perfect birthday gift that is designed to deliver higher financial returns for the rest of your investing life. It may take you a little homework on your part, but I am sure you will end up thinking it was well worth the investment.

A Conservative Nike Trade Which Should Gain 60% in 8 Months

Timing is everything. The price of Nike (NKE) was beaten down last week, apparently on the news that one of their largest retailers, Sports Authority, had declared bankruptcy and was conducting a going-out-of-business sale. I believe that this news has unfairly impacted the price of NKE. After all, people will continue to buy NKE shoes. It just won’t be at Sports Authority.

NKE has been doing very well lately. It has had 4 consecutive spectacular quarters, exceeding estimated earnings by a wide margin each time, yet it is trading very near the low for the year, down 20% from its high reached in December. In that month, there was a 2-for-1 stock split, and this often results in a lower stock price over the subsequent few months (apparently, a fair number of people sell off half their stock so they retain the same number of shares they had before the split, with most or all of their original investment back in their pocket). The same thing happened to Google when it split its stock a few years ago – it was lower at the end of the year than it was at the beginning, the only time in its first 9 years of existence that that happened.

NKE is trading about $54 today. If you believed that this was about as low as it might go, you might make a 5-month bet that it won’t be trading below $52.50 when the 21Oct16 options expire. You would make 50% on your money (after commissions) if you bought 21Oct16 50 puts and sold 21Oct16 52.5 puts, collecting $.86 and risking $1.64 if the stock falls below $50 by that time (using the commission rate charged to Terry’s Tips subscribers at thinkorswim – $1.25 per contract).

This trade, executed as a vertical put credit spread, would put $83.50 in your account. Your broker would assess a maintenance requirement of $250. Subtracting out the $83.50 you received, the net amount the trade would cost you would be $166.50. This is also the maximum loss you could possibly incur. It would come along only if NKE fell below $50 on October 16th. If NKE is at any price above $52.50 on that date, both put options would expire worthless and you would not have to make another trade to close out your positions (saving you commissions on that end of the trade).

An even safer bet could be made by trading those same strikes for the 20Jan17 series where you could collect $.96, risk $1.54, and make 60% on your investment (and maximum loss) if NKE closes above $52.50 in January. Not only is the gain greater, but you have an extra quarter (including the Christmas selling season) to watch NKE grow (or at least not fall).

I consider this to be a conservative investment because I believe NKE has had its price unfairly pushed lower because of the Sports Authority bankruptcy and is selling near the low for the year in spite of exceeding earnings estimates every quarter for the last year. The stock does not have to go up a penny to make 60% on this trade. All it has to do is not fall by more than $1.50 by January 20, 2017. I think it is highly likely to be trading safely higher than $52.50 at the time.

As always, you should only invest money in stock options if you can truly afford to lose it. Options are risky, and while potential gains can be far greater than conventional investments, they usually incur a greater degree of risk (although in the above case, I like the odds when a stock is unfairly downtrodden and doesn’t have to go up a penny to guarantee a gain on the trade).

Happy trading,

Terry

P.S. For this lowest-price-ever $39.95 offer for the complete Terry’s Tips package (including my White Paper for which over 10,000 people have paid our regular price $79.95), click here, enter Special Code 15Year (or 15YearP for Premium Service – $79.95). It could be the best investment decision you ever make.

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Success Stories

I have been trading the equity markets with many different strategies for over 40 years. Terry Allen's strategies have been the most consistent money makers for me. I used them during the 2008 melt-down, to earn over 50% annualized return, while all my neighbors were crying about their losses.

~ John Collins