Posts Tagged ‘Monthly Options’
Monday, May 13th, 2013
The Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR) spread I recommended last week resulted in a 20% gain. Not bad considering we were blindsided by their announcing a new 5-year deal with Starbucks that shot the stock 25% higher while we were betting on a lower post-announcement price. Our gain was not as great as last week’s 50% gain on Apple, but we will take 20% anytime (I’m sorry, but I executed the Apple spreads in a Terry’s Tips portfolio and did not share it with the free newsletter subscribers).
This week I have two earnings-related plays which need to be made before the close on Wednesday if you want to participate.
If you read down further, there is information on how you can become a Terry’s Tips Insider absolutely free!
Terry
Two Earnings Play for This Week – Deere and Sina
Sina Corporation (SINA) is pretty much the same as Yahoo but operates in China. I have written a Seeking Alpha article about the company – How To Play The Sina Corporation Earnings Ann… in which I explain why I believe that the stock will probably dip a bit after Wednesday’s announcement (largely because expectations are high, the current valuation is pricey, and hedge funds are selling shares).
I recommended these trades to play the SINA announcement with the stock at about $59:
BTO 10 SINA Jun-13 55 puts (SINA130622P55)
STO 10 SINA May-13 55 puts (SINA130518P55) for a debit of $1.01 (buying a calendar)
BTO 10 SINA Jun-13 57.5 puts (SINA130622P57.5)
STO 10 SINA May-13 57.5 puts (SINA130518P57.5) for a debit of $1.11 (buying a calendar)
BTO 10 SINA Jun-13 60 calls (SINA130622C60)
STO 10 SINA May-13 60 calls (SINA130518C60) for a debit of $1.18 (buying a calendar)
These trades should make a gain if the stock goes up by less than 5% or down by less than 10% by Friday at the close.
The other earnings play involves Deere & Co. (DE) which has the unenviable record of falling four straight quarters after announcing, even when they bested expectations. I have also written a Seeking Alpha article on this play – How To Play the Deere & Company Earnings Announcement.
Expectations are high here, too, and I expect a lower price than the current $93 after earnings. Here are the spreads I am making in Deere:
Buy To Open 10 DE Jun-13 95 puts (DE130622P95)
Sell To Open 10 DE May-13 92.5 puts (DE130518P92.5) for a debit of $2.35 (buying a diagonal)
Buy to Open 5 DE Jun-13 90 puts (DE130622P90)
Sell to Open 5 DE May-13 90 puts (DE130518P90) for a debit of $.90 (buying a calendar)
These spreads will do well if the stock falls but start to lose money if the stock moves more than $2 higher.
Please check both Seeking Alpha articles for my complete reasoning for these spreads as well as a risk profile graph for each.
Tags: AAPL, Auto-Trade, Calendar Spreads, Calls, DE, Deere, diagonal spreads, Earnings Announcement, Earnings Option Strategy, Earnings Play, GMCR, implied volatility, Monthly Options, Portfolio, Profit, profits, Puts, SINA, Sina Corporation, Terry's Tips, thinkorswim, Volatility, Weekly Options
Posted in AAPL, Earnings Announcement Options Strategy, Stock Option Trading Idea Of The Week, Stock Options Strategies, Terry's Tips Portfolios, Weekly Options | No Comments »
Monday, April 15th, 2013
This week I will offer a simple spread idea that could make 50% in a couple of days next week. It will cost about $170 per spread to put on.
Also, if you read down further, there is information on how you can become a Terry’s Tips Insider absolutely free!
How to Use Expectations to Prosper With Earnings Announcements
The earnings season started just last week. In my last Idea of the Week I recommended buying a straddle on JPMorgan (JPM), the first big company to announce this time around. We made that trade in an actual portfolio for Terry’s Tips subscribers and closed it out for a 15%+ gain after commissions.
I also suggested an options strategy for JPM in a Seeking Alpha article – How To Play The JPMorgan Earnings Announcement. In another Terry’s Tips portfolio we placed calendar spreads as outlined in this article and closed them out for a gain of 15% after commissions even though the stock fell a little after the announcement while we were betting that it would go higher.
A wonderful thing about options is that you can be wrong and still make profits as we did last week in our JPM trades. Terry’s Tips subscribers who followed both portfolios made over 30% last week, more than most people make in an entire year of stock market investing.
This week I wrote another Seeking Alpha article which checks out seven big companies which announce this week – How To Play The First Week Of The April Earnings Season.
The major message of this article is that the price of the stock after the announcement is more dependent on pre-announcement market expectations than the actual numbers that the company releases. If expectations are too high, the stock will fall no matter how much the company beats the analysts’ projections.
Of the seven companies reviewed, SanDisk (SNDK) seemed to have the highest level of expectations. Whisper numbers were 18.6% higher than analyst projections, the stock had shot up over 10% to a new high over the last week, and had moved 5% higher in the last week alone. We believe that it is highly likely that some investors will “sell on the news” no matter how good it is, and the stock will either stay flat or fall after the announcement.
With the stock trading about $57.70, I am buying May 57.5 puts and selling April 55 puts. Implied volatility (IV) of the May options is 37 while the April options carry an IV of 70, nearly double the May number (this means you are buying “cheap” and selling “expensive” options). Each diagonal spread would cost $163 to place at the natural option prices at the close on Friday.
Here is the risk profile graph for these spreads if you bought 20 of them, investing about $3400 after commissions (of course, you could buy fewer, or more, if you wished):

SNDK Risk Profile Graph
This graph assumes that after the announcement, implied volatility (IV) of the May options will fall from its current 37 to 30 which is more likely in a non-announcement time period. The graph shows that when you close the positions on Friday, April 19th, a double-digit gain could be made if the stock holds steady, and could nearly double your investment if it fell about $2 ½ after the announcement. A profit would result no matter how far the stock might fall in value.
We think the stock is likely to fall after the announcement because expectations are so unusually high. If it moves higher, however, a loss could very well result. Even in the world of options, there is no free lunch. You need to take a risk. We like our chances here.
Tags: Calendar Spreads, Calls, Credit Spreads, diagonal spreads, Earnings Announcement, Earnings Option Strategy, Earnings Play, Earnings Season, implied volatility, JPM, Monthly Options, Portfolio, Profit, profits, Puts, SNDK, Straddles, Terry's Tips, thinkorswim, VIX, Volatility
Posted in Earnings Announcement Options Strategy, Monthly Options, Stock Option Trading Idea Of The Week, Stock Options Strategies, Terry's Tips Portfolios | No Comments »
Monday, April 1st, 2013
Most of the time I prefer to sell options with just a few days or weeks of remaining life and collect the premium that is decaying at a higher rate than ever before. However, this policy is not always the most profitable alternative out there. Today I would like to discuss one of those situations where buying options rather than selling them might be the better bet.
If you read down further, there is information on how you can become a Terry’s Tips Insider absolutely free!
An Interesting Straddle Purchase Opportunity in J.P. Morgan (JPM)
Implied Volatility (IV) of an option price is supposed to measure the market’s expectation of how much the underlying security will fluctuate in one year. If an options series has an IV of 20, the market expects the stock will move either up or down by 20% over the course of a year.
Sometimes there is a huge difference between IV of the options and the actual price behavior of the stock. For example, check out J P Morgan (JPM). The April options have an IV of 24 with three weeks of remaining life, and this IV is unusually high because an earnings announcement is due on April 12 (before the open), and volatility is usually higher than normal after announcements.
So how much did JPM fluctuate over the past year? On June 4, 2013 it hit a low of $30.83 and on March 15, 2013 it hit a high of $51.00. This is a 64% change, more than triple the IV of the options. In other words, options are relatively inexpensive compared to the actual volatility of the stock.
When you see a situation like this, the best options play might be to buy a straddle (both a put and a call) at an at-the-money strike and hope that the stock fluctuates as it has in the past.
Right now, with JPM trading at $47.50, you could either buy an April 47 or 48 straddle for about $2.00 (if you think JPM is headed higher, you would select the 47 strike, and if you think JPM is more likely to fall, you would choose the 48 strike). If the stock fluctuates more than $3.00 in the next three weeks, you could sell your straddle for a 50% gain. (The nice thing about straddles is that you don’t care whether the stock goes up or down, just as long as it moves.)
So how likely is JPM to fluctuate by at least $3.00 in a month? Here are the biggest and smallest moves it has made over the past 25 months:
|
Month
|
Open
|
High
|
Low
|
Close
|
Big Up
|
Big Down
|
|
3/1/2013
|
48.6
|
51
|
47.28
|
47.46
|
2.08
|
1.64
|
|
2/1/2013
|
47.4
|
49.68
|
46.85
|
48.92
|
2.63
|
0.20
|
|
1/2/2013
|
44.98
|
47.35
|
44.2
|
47.05
|
3.38
|
-0.23
|
|
12/3/2012
|
41.27
|
44.54
|
40.2
|
43.97
|
3.46
|
0.88
|
|
11/1/2012
|
41.7
|
43.07
|
38.83
|
41.08
|
1.39
|
2.85
|
|
10/1/2012
|
40.88
|
43.54
|
40.42
|
41.68
|
3.06
|
0.06
|
|
9/4/2012
|
36.98
|
42.09
|
36.78
|
40.48
|
4.95
|
0.36
|
|
8/1/2012
|
36.19
|
38.86
|
34.76
|
37.14
|
2.86
|
1.24
|
|
7/2/2012
|
36.27
|
37.2
|
33.1
|
36
|
1.47
|
2.63
|
|
6/1/2012
|
32.41
|
37.03
|
30.83
|
35.73
|
3.88
|
2.32
|
|
5/1/2012
|
43
|
44.24
|
32.26
|
33.15
|
1.26
|
10.72
|
|
4/2/2012
|
45.75
|
46.35
|
41.8
|
42.98
|
0.37
|
4.18
|
|
3/1/2012
|
39.51
|
46.49
|
39.12
|
45.98
|
7.25
|
0.12
|
|
2/1/2012
|
37.89
|
39.94
|
37.05
|
39.24
|
2.64
|
0.25
|
|
1/3/2012
|
34.06
|
38.1
|
34.01
|
37.3
|
4.85
|
0.05
|
|
12/1/2011
|
30.86
|
34.19
|
30.03
|
33.25
|
3.22
|
0.94
|
|
11/1/2011
|
32.47
|
35.18
|
28.28
|
30.97
|
0.42
|
6.48
|
|
10/3/2011
|
30.03
|
37.54
|
27.85
|
34.76
|
7.42
|
2.27
|
|
9/1/2011
|
37.62
|
37.82
|
28.53
|
30.12
|
0.26
|
9.03
|
|
8/1/2011
|
41.16
|
41.37
|
32.31
|
37.56
|
0.92
|
8.14
|
|
7/1/2011
|
40.81
|
42.55
|
38.93
|
40.45
|
1.61
|
2.01
|
|
6/1/2011
|
42.87
|
42.99
|
39.24
|
40.94
|
0.12
|
4.00
|
|
5/2/2011
|
45.94
|
46.07
|
41.69
|
43.24
|
0.44
|
3.94
|
|
4/1/2011
|
46.55
|
47.8
|
43.53
|
45.63
|
1.70
|
2.57
|
|
3/1/2011
|
46.47
|
47.1
|
43.4
|
46.1
|
0.41
|
3.29
|
I have highlighted the months in which the stock fluctuated at least $3.00 in either direction (enough for you to make a 50% gain on a $2.00 straddle purchase). For those months, a 50% gain would be possible in 17 out of 25 months (68% of the time).
Admittedly, in this example with April options, there are only three weeks rather than four for the stock to fluctuate by this much, but since this time period includes an earnings announcement, greater volatility can be expected in this three-week period than a normal (no earnings announcement) month.
If you were to buy an April straddle on JPM for $2.00 and place a good-til-cancelled order to sell it if it hit $3.00, you would gain 50% on your investment (less commissions). If it did not execute in the next two weeks, I would recommend selling it when there was one week remaining for the April options. If the stock is trading exactly at the strike price of your straddle, you would probably get back half of your $2.00 cost, losing 50%. If the stock is at any other price than exactly at your strike price, you should be able to sell the straddle for more than $1.00. If the stock is as little as $1.00 higher or lower than your strike price, you should be able to get back $1.50 of your original $2.00 cost by exiting (selling) the position with a week of life remaining in the option. If the stock is $2.00 away from the strike price, you should be able to sell the straddle at a profit.
The stock does not have to fluctuate by $3.00 for you to sell an at-the-money straddle for $3.00 since there will always be some time value to the options (over and above the intrinsic value) right up until the options expire.
I like the odds of this straddle purchase and plan to do it both in my personal account and in one of my portfolios that I conduct at Terry’s Tips
Tags: Calls, implied volatility, JPM, Monthly Options, Portfolio, Profit, profits, Puts, Risk, Straddles, Strangles, Terry's Tips, thinkorswim, Volatility
Posted in Monthly Options, Stock Option Trading Idea Of The Week, Stock Options Strategies, Terry's Tips Portfolios | No Comments »
Tuesday, February 19th, 2013
Last week I gave you an option play on Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD) that ended up making a 63% gain. This week I am offering another pre-earnings announcement, this time on Tesla Motors (TSLA). If you want to try this strategy you will have to hurry because the announcement is due after the close on Wednesday, February 20.
Options Strategy for the Tesla Motors Earnings Announcement
In case you want to know the details of my thoughts on this company which makes electric cars, check out my Seeking Alpha article – How to Play the Tesla Motors Earnings Announcement.
In a nutshell, I think the likelihood of the stock going up after the announcement is very low. To my way of thinking, it is hopelessly overvalued and even the best of news shouldn’t push it much higher (it has already soared about 50% since August on no more than hope that their new Model S will be a big hit).
On the other hand, there are a large number of issues (including earnings) that might very well depress the stock. Here is what I would do:
With the stock trading around $37, buy TSLA June 39 calls and sell March 37 calls. This diagonal spread will cost about $1.05 ($105) to place (the natural price is $1.15 but a lower execution should be possible). There will be a $200 maintenance requirement per spread. If TSLA ends up at any price below $37 when the March options expire on the 15th, they will be worthless and I will end up owning June 39 calls which surely should be worth more than $1.05 (currently $3.00 – $3.40). I hope to exit the positions shortly after the announcement is made.
I also plan to buy half as many June-13 – March-13 33 put calendar spreads (cost about $1.90) to protect me against a possible 10% drop in the stock after the announcement. If you bought 10 of the above diagonals and 5 of these calendar spreads, your total outlay would be about $4000 (mostly the non-cash $2000 maintenance requirement on the 10 diagonal spreads).
One disadvantage with these spreads is that it might be necessary to wait as long as 3 ½ weeks to get the maximum possible return, but I expect an earlier exit will be possible at a slightly less than the maximum gain. I am aiming for a 25% gain on these spreads.
We will be placing these spreads in one of our Terry’s Tips portfolios on Tuesday or Wednesday.
Tags: BLWD, Buffalo Wild Wings, Calendar Spreads, Calls, diagonal spreads, Earnings Announcement, Earnings Option Strategy, Earnings Play, implied volatility, Monthly Options, Portfolio, Profit, profits, Puts, Terry's Tips, TESLA, thinkorswim, TSLA
Posted in Earnings Announcement Options Strategy, Last Minute Strategy, Monthly Options, Stock Option Trading Idea Of The Week, Stock Options Strategies, Terry's Tips Portfolios | No Comments »
Monday, January 7th, 2013
Two messages again today – first, a reminder that in celebration of the New Year, I am making the best offer to come on board that I have ever offered. The offer expires in three days. Don’t miss out.
Second, one of our portfolios gained an astonishing 124% last week. I want to tell you about this portfolio, reveal the exact positions we hold, and show how it should unfold next week (and thereafter).
How the Dog of Dogs Portfolio Made 124% Last Week
This portfolio is based on the expectation that the volatility ETN VXX will continue its downward slope in the future. The following is an excerpt from the weekly newsletter I send to my paying subscribers:
Summary of Dog of Dogs Portfolio
This $5000 portfolio is designed to take advantage of the long-term inevitable price pattern of VXX.. Because of contango, the way it is constructed, and the management fee, the stock is destined to fall over the long term. Twice in the last three years, 1 – 4 reverse splits had to be made so there would be some reasonable price to trade. We use calendar spreads at strikes below the underlying price.
As a reminder why we call this the Dog of Dogs portfolio, here is the 4-year graph of this ETN since it was formed:

The stock never really traded for $2800 as the graph suggests – adjusting for the two reverse splits made it seem that way. This surely is the worst-performing “stock” in the entire universe over the past four years.
Here are the current positions we hold in this portfolio:
| |
|
|
Dog Of Dogs
|
|
| |
Price:
|
|
$27.55
|
Portfolio Gain since 12/04/12 = |
+14.5%
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
Option
|
|
Strike
|
Symbol
|
Price
|
Total
|
Delta
|
Gamma
|
Theta
|
|
-3
|
Jan2-13
|
P |
27
|
VXX130111P27 |
$0.42
|
($126)
|
|
|
|
|
-6
|
Jan2-13
|
P |
28
|
VXX130111P28 |
$0.97
|
($579)
|
|
|
|
|
-4
|
Jan2-13
|
P |
28.5
|
VXX130111P28.5 |
$1.32
|
($528)
|
|
|
|
|
-3
|
Jan-13
|
P |
28
|
VXX130119P28 |
$1.46
|
($437)
|
|
|
|
|
6
|
Feb-13
|
P |
28
|
VXX130216P28 |
$2.59
|
$1,551
|
|
|
|
|
6
|
Feb-13
|
P |
29
|
VXX130216P29 |
$3.23
|
$1,935
|
|
|
|
|
7
|
Feb-13
|
P |
30
|
VXX130216P30 |
$4.03
|
$2,818
|
|
|
|
|
3
|
Mar-13
|
P |
28
|
VXX130316P28 |
$3.45
|
$1,035
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
Cash
|
$57
|
-303
|
-167
|
$9
|
| |
Total Account Value |
|
$5,726
|
-5.3%
|
|
|
|
6
|
|
|
|
|
Annualized ROI at today’s net Theta: |
57%
|
Results for the week: With VXX down $7.88 (22.2%) for the week, the portfolio gained $3,361 or 142.1%. We were patient while VXX headed higher due to fiscal cliff uncertainties, and this week our patience was rewarded as VXX fell big-time. Next week looks potentially great even if VXX does not continue to fall. A flat or lower price for VXX should result in a double-digit gain for the week.

The risk profile graph shows that if the stock is at the same level ($27.55) next Friday, the premium we collect from having sold puts at the 27, 28, and 28.5 strikes will decay sufficiently to return a gain of $740 (about 12%) even if the stock does not fall as history suggests it will. The graph also shows that a double-digit gain for the week can be expected at almost any lower price for the stock as well (this is possible because we hold six extra uncovered long puts).
Note: Most Terry’s Tips paying subscribers mirror this portfolio (and/or others of our 8 total portfolio offerings) through the Auto-Trade program at thinkorswim rather than making the trades on their own. We invite you to join us as a paying subscriber at the lowest price we have ever offered.
Tags: Auto-Trade, Calendar Spreads, Calls, Credit Spreads, ETF, ETN, Monthly Options, Portfolio, Profit, profits, Puts, Risk, Stocks vs. Stock Options, Terry's Tips, thinkorswim, VIX, Volatility, VXX, Weekly Options
Posted in 10K Strategies, Earnings Announcement Options Strategy, Stock Option Trading Idea Of The Week, Stock Options Strategies, Terry's Tips Portfolios, VXX, Weekly Options | No Comments »
Monday, December 31st, 2012
To celebrate the coming of the New Year I am making the best offer to come on board that I have ever offered. It is time limited. Don’t miss out.
Invest in Yourself in 2013 (at the Lowest Rate Ever)
The presents are unwrapped. The New Year is upon us. Start it out right by doing something really good for yourself, and your loved ones.
The beginning of the year is a traditional time for resolutions and goal-setting. It is a perfect time to do some serious thinking about your financial future.
I believe that the best investment you can ever make is to invest in yourself, no matter what your financial situation might be. Learning a stock option investment strategy is a low-cost way to do just that.
As our New Year’s gift to you, we are offering our service at the lowest price in the history of our company. If you ever considered becoming a Terry’s Tips Insider, this would be the absolutely best time to do it. Read on…
Don’t you owe it to yourself to learn a system that carries a very low risk and could gain 36% a year as many of our portfolios have done?
So what’s the investment? I’m suggesting that you spend a small amount to get a copy of my 70-page (electronic) White Paper, and devote some serious early-2013 hours studying the material.
And now for the Special Offer – If you make this investment in yourself by midnight, January 9, 2013, this is what happens:
For a one-time fee of only $39.95, you receive the White Paper (which normally costs $79.95 by itself), which explains my two favorite option strategies in detail, 20 “Lazy Way” companies with a minimum 100% gain in 2 years, mathematically guaranteed, if the stock stays flat or goes up, plus the following services :
1) Two free months of the Terry’s Tips Stock Options Tutorial Program, (a $49.90 value). This consists of 14 individual electronic tutorials delivered one each day for two weeks, and weekly Saturday Reports which provide timely Market Reports, discussion of option strategies, updates and commentaries on 8 different actual option portfolios, and much more.
2) Emailed Trade Alerts. I will email you with any trades I make at the end of each trading day, so you can mirror them if you wish (or with our Premium Service, you will receive real-time Trade Alerts as they are made for even faster order placement or Auto-Trading with a broker). These Trade Alerts cover all 8 portfolios we conduct.
3) If you choose to continue after two free months of the Options Tutorial Program, do nothing, and you’ll be billed at our discounted rate of $19.95 per month (rather than the regular $24.95 rate).
4) Access to the Insider’s Section of Terry’s Tips, where you will find many valuable articles about option trading, and several months of recent Saturday Reports and Trade Alerts.
5) A FREE special report “How We Made 100% on Apple in 2010-11 While AAPL Rose Only 25%”. This report is a good example of how our Shoot Strategy works for individual companies that you believe are headed higher.
With this one-time offer, you will receive all of these benefits for only $39.95, less than the price of the White Paper alone. I have never made an offer better than this in the twelve years I have published Terry’s Tips. But you must order by midnight on January 9, 2013. Click here, choose “White Paper with Insider Membership”, and enter Special Code 2013 (or 2013P for Premium Service – $79.95).
Investing in yourself is the most responsible New Year’s Resolution you could make for 2013. I feel confident that this offer could be the best investment you ever make in yourself.
Happy New Year! I hope 2013 is your most prosperous ever. I look forward to helping you get 2013 started right by sharing this valuable investment information with you.
Terry
P.S. If you would have any questions about this offer or Terry’s Tips, please call Seth Allen, our Senior Vice President at 800-803-4595. Or make this investment in yourself at the lowest price ever offered in our 8 years of publication – only $39.95 for our entire package - using Special Code 2013 (or 2013P for Premium Service – $79.95).
Tags: Bearish Options Strategies, Bullish Options strategies, Calendar Spreads, Calls, Credit Spreads, diagonal spreads, ETF, LEAPS, Market Crash Protection, Monthly Options, Options Tutorial Program, Portfolio, profits, Puts, shoot strategy, SPY, Stocks vs. Stock Options, Terry's Tips, thinkorswim, VIX, Volatility, VXX, Weekly Options, White Paper
Posted in 10K Strategies, AAPL, Lazy Way Strategy, SPY, Stock Option Trading Idea Of The Week, Stock Options Strategies, Terry's Tips Portfolios, Weekly Options | 1 Comment »
Monday, December 24th, 2012
Apple (AAPL) options continue to fascinate me. Today I would like to discuss a set of calendar spreads designed to capitalize on the escalating AAPL option prices that will come into play when Weeklys which expire just after the January earnings announcement become available. Those Weeklys will come on the scene on the Thursday before the January 2013 options expire the next day.
Check it out.
The Perfect Way to Play the Apple Earnings Announcement
Apple (AAPL) is due to announce earnings on January 22, 2013 (although this is currently unconfirmed). A year ago they announced earnings on Tuesday, January 24, 2012 just after the monthly options expired. The January 22, 2013 date would be consistent with that pattern. Of course, this is the big quarter when iPhone 5 and the iPad Mini results will be known for the first time.
A year ago the market responded favorably to the announcement and the stock moved $26 higher on the news (and then continued to move up more slowly for several months).
Who knows what will happen this time around? I sure don’t, although I expect it will be higher than it is today. I have devised a strategy for those of us who really don’t know where Apple will end up a month from now.
My strategy is fully explained in a Seeking Article I published yesterday -
The Perfect Way to Play the Apple Earnings Announcement
The key thing to remember here is to buy calendar spreads at a variety of strike prices to increase the odds that the stock ends up near one of those strikes during the second half of January.
Happy trading.
Tags: AAPL, Bullish Options strategies, Credit Spreads, Monthly Options, Portfolio, Profit, profits, Stocks vs. Stock Options, Terry's Tips, thinkorswim, Weekly Options
Posted in Earnings Announcement Options Strategy, Monthly Options, Stock Option Trading Idea Of The Week, Stock Options Strategies, Terry's Tips Portfolios, Weekly Options | 1 Comment »
Monday, December 17th, 2012
Today I would like to share an actual spread I placed in my personal account today. It is a simple bet that come January 18, 2013, Apple will be trading at some price above $500. As I write this, AAPL is at $513.
This little bet will make 62% after commissions at any ending price above $500. It doesn’t have to go up a penny to make this much in a single month. In fact, it can fall $13 and the same gain will come my way.
Check it out.
An Interesting Bet on Apple
One of the biggest stock market mysteries I have ever experienced in 30 years of trading almost every day has been the recent implosion of Apple stock. For years, I was on the lookout for companies whose P/E ratio was less than its growth rate.
Two months ago when AAPL was trading north of $700, its growth rate was more than double the P/E ratio (not even adjusting for cash), even taking the traditionally-conservative company projections for next quarter. Opportunities like this are quite rare in the investment world, at least they have been in the past.
Since that time the stock has fallen nearly $200. I was not alone in my surprise at such a drop. The average price target for 48 analysts is $750. How can so many presumably smart (and well-informed) people be so horribly wrong? Maybe they aren’t, at least in the longer run.
Trying to catch the bottom of a falling stock has been compared to catching a knife dropped from a great height (with your bare hands, of course). I must admit that I have made several attempts to catch a bottom over the past two months, and my portfolio value has dropped right along with the stock. It has been a painful time for us Apple bulls.
But now I think the bottom is finally here. From a technical standpoint, there seems to be a strong resistance point at $505. I’m not much of a technical indicator guy, but so many people are that sometimes you just have to follow their lead. It has come close to $505 a couple of weeks ago, rose sharply, and then retreated to test that level once again last week, and has since recovered a bit.
Much of the recent sell-off has been attributed to tax-related selling. If a person had a huge gain in the stock (and anyone who has bought it in earlier years surely has), it might be better to sell your shares in 2012 to avoid what looks like a higher long-term capital gains rate that may be instituted in 2013. Many people are expected the rate to increase from 15% to at least 25% next year. That would make it a good time to take some profits.
Anyone who sold AAPL for tax reasons probably still likes the stock (after all, it did give them a big win) and may buy it back once they read about millions of new iPhone 5 sales at Christmas and in China (and now, even at Wal-Mart) and anticipate what those sales might mean to earnings.
There are many other reasons that the stock should be trading higher in 2013. It usually spikes higher in advance of the January earnings announcement which should come just after the January options expire. When the announcement is made, the P/E ratio will surely be even lower than it is today since this will be the first quarter when the iPhone 5 results are in (the most profitable Apple product, and the biggest problem has been making it fast enough to keep up with the demand).
So here’s the little bet I made that Apple will be trading at some point higher than $500 on January 18, 2013:
I bought AAPL Jan-13 495 puts and sold Jan-13 500 puts, collecting $195 per spread, or $192 after commissions (in options lingo, I sold a vertical put spread). If the stock closes at any price below $495, I will have to buy the spread back for $500 and I will lose $308 (the maximum risk I am taking).
My broker will issue a maintenance requirement for $500 per spread (this is not a loan like a margin requirement, but $500 per spread will have to be set aside in the account). Since I collected $192, my actual net charge will be $308. By the way, this kind of a spread is allowed in IRA accounts at most brokerages, including thinkorswim.
At any price above $500, both options will expire worthless, no commissions will be due, and I will make a gain of $192 on my maximum risk of $308. That works out to about 62% on my money at risk. Not bad for one month.
Of course, you should not take this risk with money you can’t afford to lose.
Tags: AAPL, Bullish Options strategies, Monthly Options, Profit, profits, Stocks vs. Stock Options, Terry's Tips, Vertical Put Spread
Posted in AAPL, Earnings Announcement Options Strategy, Monthly Options, Stock Option Trading Idea Of The Week, Stock Options Strategies, Terry's Tips Portfolios | 1 Comment »
Sunday, December 9th, 2012
Back spreads and ratio spreads are usually discussed together because they are simply the mirror image of each other. Back spreads and ratio spreads are comprised of either both calls or both puts at two different strike prices in the same expiration month. If the spread has more long contracts than short contracts, it is a Back Spread. If there are more short contracts, it is a Ratio Spread.
Since ratio spreads involve selling “naked” (i.e., uncovered by another long option) they can’t be used in an IRA. For that reason, and because we like to sleep better at night knowing that we are not naked short and could possibly lose more than our original investment, we do not trade ratio spreads at Terry’s Tips.
Back spreads involve selling one option and buying a greater quantity of an option with a more out-of-the-money strike. The options are either both calls or both puts.
A typical back spread using calls might consist of buying 10 at-the-money calls and selling 5 in-the-money calls at a strike low enough to buy the entire back spread at a credit.
Ideally, you collect a credit when you set up a back spread. Since the option you are buying is less expensive than the one you are buying, it is always possible to set up the back spread at a credit. You would like as many extra long positions as possible to maximize your gains if the underlying makes a big move in the direction you are betting.
If you are wrong and the underlying moves in the opposite direction that you originally hoped, if you had set up the back spread at a net credit at the beginning, all of your options will expire worthless and you will be able to keep the original credit as pure profit (after paying commissions on the original trades, of course).
Call back spreads work best when the stock price makes a large move up; put back spreads work best when the stock price makes a large move down.
One of the easiest ways to think about a back spread is as a vertical with some extra long options. A call back spread is a bear vertical (typically a short call vertical) plus extra long call options at the higher of the two strikes. A put back spread is a bull vertical (typically a short put vertical) plus extra long put options at the lower of the two strikes.
The purpose of a back spread is to profit on a quick extended move toward, through and beyond the long strike. The purchase of a quantity of more long options is financed by the sale of fewer short options. The danger is that because the short options are usually in the money, they might grow faster than the long out-of-the-money options if the stock price moves more slowly or with less magnitude than expected. This happens even faster as expiration approaches. The long out-of-the-money options may lose value despite a favorable move in the stock price, and that same move in the stock price may increase the value of the short options. This is when the back spread loses value most quickly. This is depicted in the “valley” of the risk profile graphs. The greatest loss in the graph occurs at exactly the strike price of the long options.
There are two reasons that I personally don’t like back spreads. First, they are negative theta. That means you lose money on your positions every day that nothing much happens to the underlying strike price.
Second, and more importantly, the gains you make in the good time periods are inconsequential compared to the large losses you could incur in the other time periods. If the stock moves in the opposite way you are hoping, you end up making a very small gain (the initial credit you collected when the positions were originally placed). If the underlying doesn’t move much, your losses could be huge. On the other hand, in order for you to make large gains when the market moves in the direction you hope it will, the move must be very large before significant gains come about.
Here is the risk profile graph for a back spread on SPY (buying 10 Dec-12 142 calls for $1.55 and selling 6 Dec-12 140 calls for $2.78 when SPY was trading at $142.20 and there were two weeks until expiration):

You have about $1100 at risk (the $1200 maintenance requirement less the $115 credit (after commissions) you collected at the outset. If the stock falls by more than $2.20 so that all the calls expire worthless, you would gain the $115 credit. If the stock moves higher by $2, you would lose just about that same amount. It would have to move $2.20 higher before a gain could be expected on the upside, and every dollar the stock moved higher from there would result in a $400 gain (the number of extra calls you own).
The big problem is that if the stock doesn’t do much of anything, you stand to lose about $1000, a far greater loss than most of the scenarios when a gain could be expected. In order for you to make $1000 with these positions, the stock would have to go up by $5 in the two-week period. Of course, that happens once in a great while, but probably less than 10% of the time. There there is a much greater likelihood of its moving less than $2 in either direction (and a loss would occur at any point within that range).
Bottom line, back spreads might be considered if you have a strong feeling that the underlying stock might move strongly in one direction or another, but I believe that there are other more promising directional strategies such as vertical spreads, calendar or diagonal spreads, or even straddles or strangles that make more sense to me.
Tags: Back Spread, Bearish Options Strategies, Bullish Options strategies, Calendar Spreads, Calls, Credit Spreads, diagonal spreads, ETF, IRA, Market Crash Protection, Monthly Options, Profit, profits, Ratio Spread, SPY, Stocks vs. Stock Options, Straddles, Strangles, Terry's Tips, theta, Weekly Options
Posted in Monthly Options, SPY, Stock Options Strategies, Terry's Tips Portfolios, Weekly Options | 1 Comment »
Monday, December 3rd, 2012
This week I wrote an article for Seeking Alpha which describes an option portfolio that bets on VIX moving higher as uncertainty grows over the looming fiscal cliff. The best part of the deal is that the options will make about a 50% gain even if VIX doesn’t go up a bit over the next three weeks until the options expire.
Please read this important article as it could show you a way to provide extremely good protection against you other investments should the market take a big dive this month.
Black Swan Insurance
Here’s the link:
Black Swan Insurance That Might Pay Off Even If There Is No Crash
This is a very simple strategy that involvBlack Swan Insurance That Might Pay Off Even If There Is No Crashes buying in-the-money Dec-12 13 calls and selling a smaller number of Dec-12 16 calls. You are setting up a vertical spread for some of the calls and holding several calls uncovered long. The 13 calls have essentially no time premium in them and the 16 calls have a lot of time premium since they are very close to the money.
The only scenario where these positions lose money is if VIX falls much below 15 when the options expire on December 19. For its entire history, VIX has traded below 15 on only a few rare occasions, and it always moved higher shortly thereafter.
If VIX does get down close to 15 as expiration nears, additional calls might be sold against the uncovered long calls you own, maybe at the 15 strike.. This would expand the downside break-even range about a half a dollar.
There are a few things that you should know about trading VIX options. Weekly options are not available. You are restricted to the regular monthly option series. Even more restricting, calendar spreads and diagonal spreads are not allowed in VIX options because the underlying entity is a derivative rather than an actual stock. You are pretty much restricted to vertical or back spreads unless you want to post a large maintenance requirement.
In spite of these limitations, VIX options are a lot better than VXX if you want to buy portfolio insurance. VXX suffers from contango dilution most of the time while VIX fluctuates independent of any such headwinds.
Tags: Bearish Options Strategies, Calls, Credit Spreads, diagonal spreads, ETF, ETN, Market Crash Protection, Monthly Options, Portfolio, Profit, profits, Puts, Risk, Stocks vs. Stock Options, Terry's Tips, thinkorswim, VIX, Volatility, VXX
Posted in Monthly Options, Stock Option Trading Idea Of The Week, Stock Options Strategies, Terry's Tips Portfolios, VXX | No Comments »
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