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Legging Into a Short Iron Condor Spread

Monday, March 3rd, 2014

Today I would like share with you the results of an actual trade recommendations I made for my paying subscribers on January 4th of this year and how subsequent price changes have opened up option possibilities that can further improve possibilities for a first investment.

Please don’t get turned off by what this new spread is called.

Terry

Legging Into a Short Iron Condor Spread

In my weekly Saturday Report that I send to paying subscribers, on January 4, 2014 I set up an actual demonstration portfolio in a separate trading account at thinkorswim in which I made long-term bets that three underlying stocks (GOOG, SPY, and GMCR) would be higher than they currently were at some distant point in the future.  The entire portfolio would make exactly 93% with the three spreads I chose if I were right about the stock prices.

Almost two months later, things are looking pretty good for all three spreads, but that is not as important as what we can learn about option possibilities.

If you recall, early this year I was quite bullish on Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR) which has recently changed their name to Keurig Green Mountain.  The major reason was that three insiders who had never bought shares before had recently made huge purchases (two of a million dollars each).  I Googled these men and learned that they were mid-level executives who were clearly not high rollers.  I figured that if they were committing this kind of money, they must have had some very good reason(s),  Also, for four solid months, not a single director had sold a single share, something that was an unusual pattern for the company.

My feelings about the company were also boosted when a company writing for Seeking Alpha published an article in which they had selected GMCR as the absolute best company from a fundamental standpoint in a database of some 6000 companies.

This is what I wrote in that Saturday Report – “The third spread, on Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR), is a stronger bullish bet than either of the first two, for two reasons.  The stock is trading about in the middle of the long and short put prices (70 and 80), and the time period is only six months (expiring in June 2014) rather than 11 or 12 months.  I paid $540 for the Jun-14 80 – Jun-14 70 vertical put credit spread.  My maximum loss is $460 per spread if the stock closes below $70, and I will make 115% after commissions in six months if it closes above $80.”

This vertical put credit spread involved selling the Jun-14 80 puts for $13.06 and buying the Jun-70 puts for $7.66, collecting $540 for each spread.  I sold 5 of these spreads, collecting a total of $2700.  There would be a maintenance requirement of $5000 for the spreads (not a margin loan which would have interest charged on it, but an amount that I couldn’t use to buy other stocks or options).  Subtracting what I received in cash from the maintenance requirement, my real cost (and maximum loss) would be $2300.  If GMCR closed at any price above $80 on June 21, 2014, both puts would expire worthless and I could keep my $2700 and make 115% after commissions (there would be no commissions to pay if both puts expired worthless).

An interesting side note to the $2700 cash I received in this transaction.  In the same account, I also owned shares of my favorite underlying stock.  I am so bullish on this other company (which is really not a company at all, but an Exchange Traded Product (ETP)) that I owned some on margin, paying 9% on a margin loan.  The cash I received from the credit spread was applied to my margin loan and reduced the total on which I was paying interest.  In other words, I was enjoying a 9% gain on the spread proceeds while I waited out the six months for the options to expire.

In case you hadn’t heard, GMCR announced on February 5th that they had executed a 10-year contract with Coke to sell individual cups on an exclusive basis.  The stock soared some 50%, from $80 to over $120.  In addition, Coke bought 10% of GMCR for $1.25 billion, and gained over $600 million on their purchase in a single day.  Obviously, those insiders knew what they were doing when they made their big investments last November.

Now I am in an interesting position with this spread.  It looks quite certain that I will make the 115% if I just sit and wait another 4 months.  The stock is highly unlikely to fall back below $80 at this point.  I could but back the spread today for $.64, ($320 for the 5 spreads) and be content with a $2380 gain now rather than $2700 in June.

But instead, I decided to wait it out, and add a twist to my investment.  Since the deal with Coke will not reach the market until at least 2015, it seems to me that we are in for a period of waiting until the chances of success for single servings of Coke are better known.  The stock is probably not going to move by a large amount in either direction between now and June.

With that in mind, I sold another vertical credit spread with June options, this time using calls.  I bought Jun-14 160 calls and sold Jun-14 150 calls and collected $1.45 ($725 less $12.50 commissions).  These options will expire worthless if GMCR is at any price below $150 on June 21, 2014, something that I believe is highly likely.  I think it has already taken the big upward move that it will take this year.

If the stock ends up at any price between $80 and $150, I will make money on both spreads that I sold.  Now the total I can gain is $3400 (after commissions) and my net investment has now been reduced to $1600 and my maximum gain is 212% on my money at risk.

This new spread will not have any maintenance requirement because the broker understands that I can’t lose money on both vertical spreads I have sold.  He will look at the two spreads and notice that the difference between the long and short strike prices is 10 for both spreads.  As long as he is setting aside $5000 in a maintenance requirement on the account, he knows that I can lose that maximum amount on only one of the two spreads.

What I have done is to leg into what is called a short iron condor spread (legging in means you buy one side of a spread to start, and then add the other side at a later time – the normal way to execute a spread is to execute both sides at the same time).  You don’t have to know any more about it than know its name at this time, but I invite you to become a Terry’s Tips Insider and learn all about short iron condors as well as many other interesting options strategies.

Google Vertical Put Spread – Corrected Prices

Monday, December 23rd, 2013

Several subscribers wrote in and told me that my numbers were off on the Google spread.  I apologize.  At least I know that some of you read these ideas, so that is encouraging.I have fixed the numbers and repeated the words.  Here is the trade fill:

google trades Google Trades

As you can see, I actually did better than the $10.30 I reported below – I sold it for $10.46.  I had placed a limit order at $10.30 and assumed that was the price I got – it ended up being better than the limit price.

Google Vertical Put Spread – Corrected Prices

To repeat, my 2014 bet on Google is even more interesting, mostly because Google has moved higher over the course of the year 9 times out of 10.  Only in the market melt-down in 2007 did it end up lower than when it started out the year.

GOOG was trading at $1108 today, Monday, I sold a Jan-15 1120 put and bought a Jan-15 1100 put. (You could also trade the minis on GOOG which are one-tenth the value of the regular options).  I collected $10.30 ($1027.50 after paying $2.50 in commissions – the rate that Terry’s Tips subscribers pay at thinkorswim), from selling the vertical put spread and my maximum loss is $972.50.

There will be a $2000 maintenance requirement on this spread, but since I collected $1027.50, my maximum loss and the amount it required to place this trade is $972.50.

(Note: There is a big range between the bid and ask prices – it is important to place a limit order when trading these options rather than a market order.)  I will make over 105% on my investment for the year if the stock is at $1120 or any higher January 17, 2015 (it only needs to go up $12 over the course of a full year and a month).  After note:  GOOG is now trading at $1114 and only needs to go up by $6 for me to make 100%.

If I made this same bet every year for 10 years and Google behaved like it did over the past 10 years, I would collect a total of $9247.50 in the 9 winning years and lose $972.50 once, for a gain of $8275 over the decade, or an average of 85% a year on my money.  Again, this is a pretty good return in today’s market.

Critical to the success with these trades is the assumption that markets in the future will behave like they have in the past.  While that is not always the case, the past is usually a pretty good indicator of what the future might be.  These trades are just an example of how you can make superior returns using options rather than buying stock if you play the odds wisely.

 

Two Interesting Option Bets for 2014 – SPY and Google

Monday, December 23rd, 2013

Today I would like to tell you about two actual option trades that I made just this morning and my reasoning behind them.  They are both long-term bets on what I expect the market to do in 2014.  One of these bets might make an average of 85% every year if the market behaves like it has in the past.

By the way, last week when I salted this newsletter (and my blog) with the keywords “option trading” and “trading options” to see if Google Alerts picked it up, I was not surprised to see that I did not make the cut.  Google seems to have switched what they think is important from keywords to social media traffic, and since Terry’s Tips does not have a Facebook or Twitter account, I am not considered worthy of inclusion in their searches.  Oh well, at least I learned where I stand, right up there with the chopped liver.

I hope you will find these two trades I made interesting enough to consider doing on your own (only with money you can afford to lose) if you agree with my assumptions.

Two Interesting Option Bets for 2014 – SPY and Google

While most stocks go up some months and down others, when you check out how they perform for a whole year, most of the time they manage to move higher between the beginning and end of the year.

The market (using the S&P 500 tracking stock, SPY as the measure) has gone up or fallen by less than 2% in 33 out of 40 years.  A single stock I like, Google (GOOG), has gone up 9 out of the 10 years that it has been publicly traded.

I believe that a year from now, the market in general and GOOG in particular will be higher than it is today.  If I am right, the two trades I made today will make a gain of 53% on the market and 105% on GOOG.

With SPY trading at $182.30 today, allowing for a possible 2% loss in 2014, I decided to sell a Dec-14 180 put and at the same time, buy a Dec-14 170 put.  If SPY is above $180 when these puts expire on the third Friday of December (the 20th) 2014, both of these puts will expire worthless and I will be able to keep any cash I collected when I sold the spread today.

I sold the SPY vertical spread for $3.57 ($354.50 after commissions).  The maximum loss I can have from the spread will come about if SPY closes below $170 when the options expire.  Subtracting the $$354.50 I received from selling the spread from the $1000 maximum loss means that I will have risked $645.50 to possibly collect a possible $354.50.  This works out to a 53% return on my maximum loss.

My broker will post a maintenance requirement on my account for $1000 while we wait for the options to expire.  This is not a loan like a margin loan and no interest is charged.  It is just money cash in my account that I can’t use of other purposes for the year.  The actual amount of cash I have tied up in the spread is only $645.50 , however, since I collected $354.50 in cash when I sold the spread today.

If I made $354.5 in each of the 33 years when the market rose or fell by less than 2% and lost the entire $645.50 at risk in the 7 years when the market fell over the last 40 years, my average gain for the 40 years would be $179.50 per year, or 27% per year.  That beats most investments today by a huge margin.  (The actual average gain would be higher than this because in some of those 7 losing years the loss would not be a total one).

My 2014 bet on Google is even more interesting, mostly because Google has moved higher over the course of the year 9 times out of 10.  Only in the market melt-down in 2007 did it end up lower than when it started out the year.

GOOG was trading at $1008 today, Monday, I sold a Jan-15 1020 put and bought a Jan-15 1010 put. (You could also trade the minis on GOOG which are one-tenth the value of the regular options).  I collected $10.30 ($1027.50 after paying $2.50 in commissions – the rate that Terry’s Tips subscribers pay at thinkorswim), from selling the vertical put spread and my maximum loss is $972.50. (Note: There is a big range between the bid and ask prices – it is important to place a limit order when trading these options rather than a market order.)  I will make over 105% on my investment for the year if the stock is at $1020 or any higher January 17, 2015 (it only needs to go up $12 over the course of a full year and a month).

If I made this same bet every year for 10 years and Google behaved like it did over the past 10 years, I would collect a total of $9247.50 in the 9 winning years and lose $972.50 once, for a gain of $8275 over the decade, or an average of 85% a year on my money.  Again, this is a pretty good return in today’s market.

Critical to the success with these trades is the assumption that markets in the future will behave like they have in the past.  While that is not always the case, the past is usually a pretty good indicator of what the future might be.  These trades are just an example of how you can make superior returns using options rather than buying stock if you play the odds wisely.

 

 

 

A “Conservative” Options Strategy for 2014

Monday, December 16th, 2013

Every day, I get a Google alert for the words “options trading” so that I can keep up with what others, particularly those with blogs, are saying about options trading.  I always wondered why my blogs have never appeared on the list I get each day.  Maybe it’s because I don’t use the exact words “option trading” like some of the blogs do.

Here is an example of how one company loaded up their first paragraph with these key words (I have changed a few words so Google doesn’t think I am just copying it) – “Some experts will try to explain the right way to trade options by a number of steps.  For example, you may see ‘Trading Options in 6 Steps’ or ’12 Easy Steps for Trading Options.’  This overly simplistic approach can often send the novice option trading investor down the wrong path and not teach the investor a solid methodology for options trading. (my emphasis)”  The key words “options trading” appeared 5 times in 3 sentences.  Now that they are in my blog I will see if my blog gets picked up by Google.

Today I would like to share my thoughts on what 2014 might have in store for us, and offer an options strategy designed to capitalize on the year unfolding as I expect.

Terry

A “Conservative” Options Strategy for 2014

What’s in store for 2014?  Most companies seem to be doing pretty well, although the market’s P/E of 17 is a little higher than the historical average.  Warren Buffett recently said that he felt it was fairly valued.  Thirteen analysts surveyed by Forbes projected an average 2014 gain of just over 5% while two expected a loss of about 2%, as we discussed a couple of weeks ago. With interest rates so dreadfully low, there are not many places to put your money except in the stock market. CD’s are yielding less than 1%.  Bonds are scary to buy because when interest rates inevitably rise, bond prices will collapse.  The Fed’s QE program is surely propping up the market, and some tapering will likely to take place in 2014.  This week’s market drop was attributed to fears that tapering will come sooner than later.

When all these factors are considered, the best prognosis for 2014 seems to be that there will not be a huge move in the market in either direction.  If economic indicators such as employment numbers, corporate profits and consumer spending improve, the market might be pushed higher except that tapering will then become more likely, and that possibility will push the market lower.  The two might offset one another.

This kind of a market is ideal for a strategy of multiple calendar spreads, of course, the kind that we advocate at Terry’s Tips.  One portfolio I will set up for next year will use a Jan-16 at-the-money straddle as the long side (buying both a put and a call at the 180 strike price).  Against those positions we will sell out-of-the-money monthly puts and calls which have a month of remaining life. The straddle will cost about $36 and in one year, will fall to about $24 if the stock doesn’t move very much (if it does move a lot in either direction, the straddle will gain in value and may be worth more than $24 in one year).  Since the average monthly decay of the straddle is about $1 per month,  that is how much monthly premium needs to be collected to break even on theta.  I would like to provide for a greater move on the downside just in case that tapering fears prevail (I do not expect that euphoria will propel the market unusually higher, but tapering fears might push it down quite a bit at some point).  By selling puts which are further out of the money, we would enjoy more downside protection.

Here is the risk profile graph for my proposed portfolio with 3 straddles (portfolio value $10,000), selling out-of-the-money January-14 puts and calls. Over most of the curve there is a gain approaching 4% for the first month (a five-week period ending January 19, 2014).   Probably a 3% gain would be a better expectation for a typical month.  A gain over these 5 weeks should come about if SPY falls by $8 or less or moves higher by $5 or less.  This seems like a fairly generous range.

Spy Straddle Risk Profile For 2014

Spy Straddle Risk Profile For 2014

For those of you who are not familiar with these risk profile graphs (generated by thinkorswim’s free software), the P/L Day column shows the gain or loss expected if the stock were to close on January 19, 2014 at the price listed in the Stk Price column, or you can estimate the gain or loss by looking at the graph line over the various possible stock prices.  I personally feel comfortable owning SPY positions which will make money each month over such a broad range of possible stock prices, and there is the possibility of changing that break-even range with mid-month adjustments should the market move more than moderately in either direction.

The word “conservative” is usually not used as an adjective in front of “options strategy,” but I believe this is a fair use of the word for this actual portfolio I will carry out at Terry’s Tips for my paying subscribers to follow if they wish (or have trades automatically executed for them in their accounts through the Auto-Trade program at thinkorswim).

There aren’t many ways that you can expect to make 3% a month in today’s market environment.  This options strategy might be an exception.

How to Make 60% to 100% in 2014 if a Single Analyst (Out of 13) is Right

Monday, November 25th, 2013

Today we are going to look at what the analysts are forecasting for 2014 and suggest some option strategies that will make 60% or more if any one of the analysts interviewed by the Wall Street Journal are correct. They don’t all have to be correct, just one of the 13 they talked to.

Please continue reading down so you can see how you can come on board as a Terry’s Tips subscriber for no cost at all while enjoying all the benefits that thinkorswim by TD Ameritrade offers to anyone who opens an account with them.

Terry
 
How to Make 60% to 100% in 2014 if a Single Analyst (Out of 13) is Right 

 
Now is the time for analysts everywhere to make their predictions of what will happen to the market in 2014.  Last week, the Wall Street Journal published an article entitled Wall Street bulls eye more stock gains in 2014.  Their forecasts – ”The average year-end price target of 13 stock strategists polled by Bloomberg is 1890, a 5.7% gain … (for the S&P 500).  The most bullish call comes from John Stoltzfus, chief investment strategist at Oppenheimer (a prediction of +13%).”
The Journal continues to say “The bad news: Two stock strategists are predicting that the S&P 500 will finish next year below its current level. Barry Bannister, chief equity strategist at Stifel Nicolaus, for example, predicts the index will fall to 1750, which represents a drop of 2% from Tuesday’s close.”
I would like to suggest a strategy that will make 60% to 100% (depending on which underlying you choose to use) if any one of those analysts is right. In other words, if the market goes up by any amount or falls by 2%, you would make those returns with a single options trade that will expire at the end of 2014.
The S&P tracking stock (SPY) is trading around $180.  If it were to fall by 2% in 2014, it would be trading about $176.40.  Let’s use $176 as our downside target to give the pessimistic analyst a little wiggle room.  If we were to sell a Dec-14 176 put and buy a Dec-14 171 put, we could collect $1.87 ($187) per contract.  A maintenance requirement of $500 would be made.  Subtracting the $187 you received, you will have tied up $313 which represents the greatest loss that could come your way (if SPY were to close below $171, a drop of 5% from its present level). 
Once you place these trades (called selling a vertical put spread), you sit back and do nothing for an entire year (until these options expire on December 20, 2014). If SPY closes at any price above $176, both puts would expire worthless and you would get to keep $187 per contract, or 60% on your maximum risk. 
You could make 100% on your investment with a similar play using Apple as the underlying.  You would have to make the assumption that Apple will fluctuate in 2014 about as much as the S&P.  For most of the past few years, Apple has done much better than the general market, so it is not so much of a stretch to bet that it will keep up with the S&P in 2014.
Apple is currently trading about $520.  You could sell at vertical put spread for the January 2015 series, selling the 510 put and buying the 480 put and collect a credit of $15.  If Apple closes at any price above $510 on January 17, 2015, both puts would expire worthless and you would make 100% on your investment.  You would receive $1500 for each of these spreads you placed and there would be a $1500 maintenance requirement (the maximum loss if Apple closes below $480).
Apple is trading at about 10 times earnings on a cash-adjusted basis, is paying a 2.3% dividend, and is continuing an aggressive stock buy-back campaign, three indications that make a big stock price drop less likely to come about in 2014.
A similar spread could be made with Google puts, but the market is betting that Google is less likely to fall than Apple, and your return on investment would be about 75% if Google fell 2% or went up by any amount.  You could sell Jan-15 1020 puts and buy Jan-15 990 puts and collect about $1300 and incur a net maintenance requirement of $1700 (your maximum loss amount).
If you wanted to get a little more aggressive, you could make the assumption that the average estimate of the 13 analysts was on the money, (i.e., the market rises 5.7% in 2014).  That would put SPY at $190 at the end of the year. You could sell a SPY Dec-14 190 put and buy a Dec-14 185 put and collect $2.85 ($285), risking $2.15 ($215) per contract.  If the analysts are right and SPY ends up above $190, you would earn 132% on your investment for the year.
By the way, you can do any of the above spreads in an IRA if you choose the right broker.  I would advise against it, however, because your gains will eventually be taxed at ordinary income rates (at a time when your tax rate is likely to be higher) rather than capital gains rates.
Note: I prefer using puts rather than calls for these spreads because if you are right, nothing needs to be done at expiration, both options expire worthless, and no commissions are incurred to exit the positions.  Buying a vertical call spread is mathematically identical to selling a vertical put spread at these same strike prices, but it will involve selling the spread at expiration and paying commissions.
What are the chances that every single analyst was wrong?  Someone should do a study on earlier projections and give us an answer to that question.  We all know that a market tumble could come our way if the Fed begins to taper, but does that mean the market as a whole would drop for the entire year?  Another unanswerable question, at least at this time.
On a historical basis, for the 40 years of the S&P 500’s existence (counting 2013 which will surely be a gaining year), the index has fallen by more than 2% in 7 years.  That means if historical patterns continue for 2014, there is a 17.5% chance that you will lose your entire bet and an 83.5% chance that you will make 60% (using the first SPY spread outlined above).  If you had made that same bet every year for the past 40 years, you would have made 60% in 33 years and lost 100% in 7 years.  For the entire time span, you would have enjoyed an average gain of 32% per year.  Not a bad average gain.

How to Own 100 Shares of Google for $16,000

Monday, October 7th, 2013

Way back when Google (GOOG) went public at $80 a share, I decided that I would like to own 100 shares and hang on to it for the long run. Obviously, that was a good idea as the stock is trading today at $870. My $8000 investment would now be worth $87,000 if I had been able to keep my original shares. Unfortunately, over the years, an options opportunity inevitably came along that looked more attractive to me than my 100 shares of GOOG, and I sold my shares to take advantage of the opportunity.

Many times my investment account had compiled a little spare cash, and I went back into the market and bought more shares of GOOG, always paying a little more to buy it back. At some point it felt like I just had too much money tied up in it. An $8000 commitment is one thing, but $87,000 is real money.

Today I would like to share how I own the equivalent of 100 shares of GOOG for an investment of only $17,000, and the neat thing about my investment is that I get expect to get a “dividend” in the next two weeks of about $1300 if the stock just sits there and doesn’t go anywhere.

I own options, of course. Here is what I own.

Terry

 How to Own 100 Shares of Google for $16,000:  You would have to shell out about $87,000 today to buy 100 shares of GOOG stock. If you bought it on margin, you might have to come up with about half that amount, $43,500, but you have to shell out interest on the margin loan each month. I like money coming in, not going out.

A couple of weeks in this newsletter we talked about the Greek measure delta. This is simple the equivalent number of shares of stock that an option has. I own GOOG 800 calls that expire on the third Friday of January 2014. You could buy one today for $8600. I own 2 of them for a cost of about $17,200.

The delta for these Jan-14 800 calls is 75. That means if the stock goes up by a dollar, the value of each of my options will go up by $75. With these 2 options I own the equivalent of 150 shares of stock.

Since all options decline a little bit every day that the stock stays flat (it is called decay), simply owning options is just about as bad as paying margin interest on a stock loan. As I said earlier, I like money coming in rather than going out.

Since I own 2 call options at a lower strike price that the market price I am entitled to use them as collateral to sell someone else the opportunity to buy shares of GOOG at a higher price. I sold one Oct-13 890 call, collecting $13.50 ($1350) at today’s price. This option will expire in two weeks (October 18). If the stock is at any price less than $890, this call will expire worthless and I will get to keep the entire $1350.

This Oct-13 890 call option that I sold carries a delta of 38, making my net option value 112 deltas (the equivalent of 112 shares of stock).

Since I am aiming to own 100 shares of GOOG, I sold another Oct-13 call, this one at the 935 strike. At today’s prices, this one would go for $3.50 ($350). The delta on this call is 13, reducing my net delta value to exactly 100.

I now own the equivalent of 100 shares of GOOG at a cost of $17,200 less the $1700 I collected from selling the two calls, or $15,500.

The neat thing about my option positions is that if the stock doesn’t go up (as I hope it will), my disappointment will be soothed a bit because I will gain about $1300 over the next two weeks. Here is the risk profile graph for my positions:

Google Risk Profile Graph

Google Risk Profile Graph

The P/L Day column in the lower right-hand corner shows what the gain or loss will be at the price in the first column on the left. (The stock popped up about $3 while I was writing this Monday morning so it is no longer trading at $870 as it was when I started).

There are two disadvantages to owing the options I do rather than the stock. If the stock falls 10%, I will lose about $9800. If I owned 100 shares of stock, I would lose only $8700. On the other hand, if the stock goes up by 10% in the next two weeks, I would only gain $7100 vs. the $8700 I would make if I owned the stock. I don’t think the stock will move by anywhere near these amounts in the next two weeks, so I am content to live with the slightly less I might gain (or the slightly more I would lose) at these extremes.

How to Use Options to Invest in Nike

Tuesday, September 24th, 2013

Today I would like to share an options strategy that we are carrying out in an actual portfolio at Terry’s Tips. It is based on the underlying stock Nike (NKE), and is set up to show how an options portfolio can make far greater gains than you could expect if you bought shares of the stock instead.The options portfolio should make a double-digit gain in the next four weeks even if the stock falls by $3 or so. If you like Nike, you will have to like this options portfolio even more.

Read to the bottom of this letter to learn how you can become a Terry’s Tips Insider for absolutely no cost.

Terry 

How to Use Options to Invest in Nike: Please spend a few minutes studying this risk profile graph carefully. It shows the expected return you would make on an investment of about $4000 in NKE call options in the next 25 days:

NKE Risk Profile Graph

NKE Risk Profile Graph

If the stock ends up at about where it is right now ($69) when the October call options expire on Friday, October 19, 2013, the graph shows that you could expect to make almost $1000 on your $4000 investment. That is almost 25% and the stock doesn’t have to go up one nickel.

People who buy shares of NKE instead of setting up a simple options portfolio like this one will not make any gains at all while we make over 20% in a single month. Of course, stockholders get to keep the 1.5% dividend that the company pays (regardless of which way the stock price might move). We have to give up that reward in exchange for the possibility of making over 20% in the next month, and presumably, in every subsequent month as well.

Admittedly, this sounds a little too good to be true. But the graph does not lie. Those are the numbers.

The graph shows that if the stock manages to move higher by about $3 over the next 25 days, less money would come our way. Only about 13% (after commissions) on our $4000 investment. But that is still a whole lot better than the stockholders would gain. They would pick up about 4.3% (a $3 gain on a $69 stock), less than half of what we expect.

The biggest advantage to our options portfolio actually comes about in the event that the stock falls moderately over the next month. If it should fall about $3 to the $66 area, the graph shows that we would make a profit of about 11% on our investment. Of course, if that happens, the owners of the stock would all lose money while we are re-investing some nice gains, or taking a little vacation in Provence, or whatever we want to do with those winnings.

It’s particularly pleasing to rack up a nice gain for the month when the stock we picked actually fell in value. We call it the “options kicker” and we really get a kick out of it.

So what does this portfolio consist of, and why can we expect to make money if the stock stays flat or moves moderately either up or down? It all comes about from the decay rate of the options that we own and the options that we have sold to someone else.

This portfolio owns call options with strike prices of 62.5 and 65, and most of these calls are LEAPS expiring in January, 2015. All options fall in value every day (assuming that the stock stays flat), but the rate of decay is much lower for longer-term options like the ones we own. Every day, our call LEAPS fall in value by about $1 each (in the options world, this is called theta). Since we own 7 LEAPS, we lose about $7 a day in decay.

Using these LEAPS as collateral, we have sold October, 2013 calls at the 70 and 72.5 strikes to someone else. These calls decay at the rate of $4 a day, and the 7 we have sold short collectively go down in value by $28 every day. Since our long positions are decaying by $7 a day and the ones we sold to someone else are falling by $28, the portfolio is gaining $21 every day that the stock is flat. This number will grow larger as the October 19th expiration is approached. In the last few days, those options will fall by $15 or so (each) while our LEAPS will continue to fall by only about $1 each.

When the October expiration day comes around, we will buy back the expiring short calls if they are in the money (i.e., the strike price is lower than the stock price) and we will sell November calls in their place. If our short calls are out of the money (i.e., the strike price is higher than the current stock price), they will expire worthless and we will be able to keep 100% of what we sold those calls for. At that point we will sell new calls expiring in November.

This is a simplistic explanation of the strategy. It gets a little more complicated when you have to decide which strike prices to sell calls at each month. Since we are bullish on NKE, we usually sell calls that are mostly at out-of-the-money strike prices so that we will gain both from the increase in the stock price and the decay of the calls that we have sold. The above risk profile graph is typical of what we normally have in place because a bigger gain will come our way if the stock gains $3 compared to what we would make if it fell by $3.

You can use this same strategy on just about any stock. It doesn’t have to be Nike. We also have a portfolio that uses the same strategy with one of my favorite companies, Costco. While the strategy may look a little confusing to someone who is not familiar with stock options, it is actually quite simple. I invite you to become a Terry’s Tips Insider and watch how this strategy (and others) are carried out over time.

Once you learn how to do it, you won’t need us any longer. My goal is for every person who subscribes to my service to learn enough in a few months to be able to quit and do it on their own. But first you need to come on board. It only costs a total of $79.95, or you can get it free if you open an account with our link at thinkorswim.

Invest in Yourself in 2013 (at the Lowest Rate Ever)

Monday, December 31st, 2012

To celebrate the coming of the New Year I am making the best offer to come on board that I have ever offered.  It is time limited.  Don’t miss out.

Invest in Yourself in 2013 (at the Lowest Rate Ever)

The presents are unwrapped.  The New Year is upon us.  Start it out right by doing something really good for yourself, and your loved ones. 

The beginning of the year is a traditional time for resolutions and goal-setting.  It is a perfect time to do some serious thinking about your financial future.

I believe that the best investment you can ever make is to invest in yourself, no matter what your financial situation might be.  Learning a stock option investment strategy is a low-cost way to do just that.

As our New Year’s gift to you, we are offering our service at the lowest price in the history of our company.      If you ever considered becoming a Terry’s Tips Insider, this would be the absolutely best time to do it.  Read on…

Don’t you owe it to yourself to learn a system that carries a very low risk and could gain 36% a year as many of our portfolios have done?

So what’s the investment?  I’m suggesting that you spend a small amount to get a copy of my 70-page (electronic) White Paper, and devote some serious early-2013 hours studying the material. 

And now for the Special Offer – If you make this investment in yourself by midnight, January 9, 2013, this is what happens:

For a one-time fee of only $39.95, you receive the White Paper (which normally costs $79.95 by itself), which explains my two favorite option strategies in detail, 20 “Lazy Way” companies with a minimum 100% gain in 2 years, mathematically guaranteed, if the stock stays flat or goes up, plus the following services :

1) Two free months of the Terry’s Tips Stock Options Tutorial Program, (a $49.90 value).  This consists of 14 individual electronic tutorials delivered one each day for two weeks, and weekly Saturday Reports which provide timely Market Reports, discussion of option strategies, updates and commentaries on 8 different actual option portfolios, and much more. 

2) Emailed Trade Alerts.  I will email you with any trades I make at the end of each trading day, so you can mirror them if you wish (or with our Premium Service, you will receive real-time Trade Alerts as they are made for even faster order placement or Auto-Trading with a broker).  These Trade Alerts cover all 8 portfolios we conduct.

3) If you choose to continue after two free months of the Options Tutorial Program, do nothing, and you’ll be billed at our discounted rate of $19.95 per month (rather than the regular $24.95 rate).

4) Access to the Insider’s Section of Terry’s Tips, where you will find many valuable articles about option trading, and several months of recent Saturday Reports and Trade Alerts.

5) A FREE special report “How We Made 100% on Apple in 2010-11 While AAPL Rose Only 25%”. This report is a good example of how our Shoot Strategy works for individual companies that you believe are headed higher.

With this one-time offer, you will receive all of these benefits for only $39.95, less than the price of the White Paper alone. I have never made an offer better than this in the twelve years I have published Terry’s Tips.  But you must order by midnight on January 9, 2013.  Click here, choose “White Paper with Insider Membership”, and enter Special Code 2013 (or 2013P for Premium Service – $79.95).

Investing in yourself is the most responsible New Year’s Resolution you could make for 2013.  I feel confident that this offer could be the best investment you ever make in yourself.

Happy New Year!  I hope 2013 is your most prosperous ever.  I look forward to helping you get 2013 started right by sharing this valuable investment information with you. 
Terry

P.S.  If you would have any questions about this offer or Terry’s Tips, please call Seth Allen, our Senior Vice President at 800-803-4595.  Or make this investment in yourself at the lowest price ever offered in our 8 years of publication – only $39.95 for our entire package - using Special Code 2013 (or 2013P for Premium Service – $79.95).

An Options Strategy for Apple Bulls to Protect Against a $50 Drop in the Stock Price

Monday, October 8th, 2012

I have submitted an article to Seeking Alpha that I would like to share with you.

An Options Strategy for Apple Bulls to Protect Against a $50 Drop in the Stock Price

Here’s the linkApple Option Strategy

There seems to be a lot of interest in Apple (AAPL) these days.  While many investors are bullish on the long-run prospects for the company, many are concerned that in the short run they may have to endure a good-size drop in the stock price. 

A properly-devised options strategy can protect you against a $50 drop in the price while leaving you plenty of room to prosper if the stock continues to rise over time.

Any questions?   I would love to hear from you by email (terry@terrystips.com), or if you would like to talk to our guy Seth, give him a jingle at 800-803-4595 and either ask him your question(s) or give him your thoughts.

You can see every trade made in 8 actual option portfolios conducted at Terry’s Tips and learn all about the wonderful world of options by subscribing here.   Why wait any longer to make this important investment in yourself?

I look forward to having you on board, and to prospering with you.

Terry

Back-Testing the 10K Classic Options Strategy

Monday, June 25th, 2012

This week I would like to share a report I sent to paying subscribers this week.  It is a back test of a portfolio we set up just a month ago to carry out the precise strategy outlined in my book, Making 36%: Duffer’s Guide to Breaking Par in the Market Every Year in Good Years and Bad (the revised 2012 edition is the 5th printing).  I believe it gives a definitive answer to the question “Do calendar spreads really work?”

Back-Testing the 10K Classic Options Strategy

The originally-stated goal of the 10K Classic portfolio was to deliver consistent 3% monthly gains and never have a losing month.  This portfolio uses S&P 500 tracking stock (SPY) as the underlying, and uses true deep in-the-money LEAPS as the long side (a full 19 months out to start) and Weekly short calls at several strikes both above the stock price (usually 2 out of 5 to start the week) and below the stock price (usually 3 out of 5 to start the week).  We generally do not make any adjustment trades until Thursday when some calls might be rolled to the next Weekly series at a different strike to make the portfolio more neutral net delta.

I wanted to see what would happen if we made absolutely no adjustments to the 10K Classic during the week based on the risk profile graph of the $9800 portfolio on June 15, 2012 and the weekly price changes for SPY that had taken place over the past 100 weeks.  Here are the results:

This table groups the weekly price changes in dollars into 19 groups and multiplies the number of occurrences in each group by the loss or gain that would have occurred with that price change according to the risk profile graph displayed with the thinkorswim software.  I reduced the indicated gain or loss by $50 each week to account for commission costs and transaction costs (we typically buy back out-of-the-money expiring calls for $3 or so, or pay a small premium when rolling over in-the-money calls).  Of course, VIX was relatively high on this date (about 22), so the gains might be less if VIX were appreciably lower.

In 76% of the weeks, a gain would have been made and in 24% of the weeks, a loss would have resulted. In the gaining weeks, the average gain was $284 and the in the losing weeks, the average loss was $445.   On an average of once a year (1 week out of each 50), a greater-than-15% loss would have occurred if no adjustments were made.

The bottom line is most encouraging.  It says that the portfolio would earn 100% over two years if those positions were in place and no adjustments were made during the week.  In order to carry out a strategy of making no adjustments, however, we would have to be willing to tolerate a weekly loss of about $1400 once every year.  

Since about two weeks a year, very large weekly losses might occur (averaging about $1000), it seems best to slightly alter our goal of never having a losing month.  When we encounter one of these weeks, the other 3 weeks of the month might not always do well enough to cover that large a loss.  Our new goal will to never have a losing month as long as the stock does not fluctuate more than $7 in one week during the month.  The more important 3%-a-month goal will continue to be in place. 

The first month for the portfolio (up 5.1%) is certainly an encouraging start, especially with the volatility that we experienced during that time period. 

The originally-stated goal of the 10K Classic portfolio was to deliver consistent 3% monthly gains and never have a losing month.  This portfolio uses S&P 500 tracking stock (SPY) as the underlying, and uses true deep in-the-money LEAPS as the long side (a full 19 months out to start) and Weekly short calls at several strikes both above the stock price (usually 2 out of 5 to start the week) and below the stock price (usually 3 out of 5 to start the week).  We generally do not make any adjustment trades until Thursday when some calls might be rolled to the next Weekly series at a different strike to make the portfolio more neutral net delta.

I wanted to see what would happen if we made absolutely no adjustments to the 10K Classic during the week based on the risk profile graph of the $9800 portfolio on June 15, 2012 and the weekly price changes for SPY that had taken place over the past 100 weeks.  Here are the results:

This table groups the weekly price changes in dollars into 19 groups and multiplies the number of occurrences in each group by the loss or gain that would have occurred with that price change according to the risk profile graph displayed with the thinkorswim software.  I reduced the indicated gain or loss by $50 each week to account for commission costs and transaction costs (we typically buy back out-of-the-money expiring calls for $3 or so, or pay a small premium when rolling over in-the-money calls).  Of course, VIX was relatively high on this date (about 22), so the gains might be less if VIX were appreciably lower.

In 76% of the weeks, a gain would have been made and in 24% of the weeks, a loss would have resulted. In the gaining weeks, the average gain was $284 and the in the losing weeks, the average loss was $445.   On an average of once a year (1 week out of each 50), a greater-than-15% loss would have occurred if no adjustments were made.

The bottom line is most encouraging.  It says that the portfolio would earn 100% over two years if those positions were in place and no adjustments were made during the week.  In order to carry out a strategy of making no adjustments, however, we would have to be willing to tolerate a weekly loss of about $1400 once every year.  

Since about two weeks a year, very large weekly losses might occur (averaging about $1000), it seems best to slightly alter our goal of never having a losing month.  When we encounter one of these weeks, the other 3 weeks of the month might not always do well enough to cover that large a loss.  Our new goal will to never have a losing month as long as the stock does not fluctuate more than $7 in one week during the month.  The more important 3%-a-month goal will continue to be in place. 

The first month for the portfolio (up 5.1%) is certainly an encouraging start, especially with the volatility that we experienced during that time period.

Making 36%

Making 36% — A Duffer's Guide to Breaking Par in the Market Every Year in Good Years and Bad

This book may not improve your golf game, but it might change your financial situation so that you will have more time for the greens and fairways (and sometimes the woods).

Learn why Dr. Allen believes that the 10K Strategy is less risky than owning stocks or mutual funds, and why it is especially appropriate for your IRA.

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Success Stories

I have been trading the equity markets with many different strategies for over 40 years. Terry Allen's strategies have been the most consistent money makers for me. I used them during the 2008 melt-down, to earn over 50% annualized return, while all my neighbors were crying about their losses.

~ John Collins