Posts Tagged ‘ETF’
Tuesday, March 12th, 2013
A lot of our discussion lately has focused on pre-earnings-announcement strategies (we call them PEA Plays). This has been brought about by lower option prices (VIX) than we have seen since 2007, a full six years ago. With option prices this low it has been difficult to depend on collecting premium as our primary source of income with our basic option strategies.
But the earnings season has now quieted down and will not start up again for several weeks, so we will return to discussing more conventional option issues.
Terry
Using Puts vs. Calls for Calendar Spreads
It is important to understand that the risk profile of a calendar spread is identical regardless of whether puts or calls are used. The strike price (rather than the choice of puts or calls) determines whether a spread is bearish or bullish. A calendar spread at a strike price below the stock price is a bearish because the maximum gain is made if the stock falls exactly to the strike price, and a calendar spread at a strike price above the stock price is bullish.
When people are generally optimistic about the market, call calendar spreads tend to cost more than put calendar spreads. For most of 2012 and into 2013, in spite of a consistently rising market, option buyers have been particularly pessimistic. They have traded many more puts than calls, and put calendar prices have been more expensive.
Right now, at-the-money put calendar spreads cost more than at-the-money call calendar spreads. As long as the underlying pessimism continues, they extra cost of the put spreads might be worth the money because when the about-to-expire short options are bought back and rolled over to the next short-term time period, a larger premium can be collected on that sale. This assumes, of course, that the current pessimism will continue into the future.
If you have a portfolio of exclusively calendar spreads (you don’t anticipate moving to diagonal spreads), it is best to use puts at strikes below the stock price and calls for spreads at strikes which are higher than the stock price. If you do the reverse, you will own a bunch of well in-the-money short options, and rolling them over to the next week or month is expensive (in-the-money bid-asked spreads are greater than out-of-the-money bid asked spreads so you can collect more cash when rolling over out-of-the-money short options).
The choice of using puts or calls for a calendar spread is most relevant when considering at-the-money spreads. When buying at-the-money calendar spreads, the least expensive choice (puts or calls) should usually be made. An exception to this rule comes when one of the quarterly SPY dividends is about to come due. On the day the dividend is payable (always on expiration Friday), the stock is expected to fall by the amount of the dividend (usually about $.60). Since the market anticipates this drop in the stock (and knowing the specific day that the stock will fall), put prices are generally bid higher in the weeks before that dividend date.
The bottom line is that put calendar spreads are preferable to call calendar spreads for at-the-money strikes (or even at strikes slightly higher than the stock price) coming into a SPY dividend date. Even though the put spreads cost more, the Weekly options that can be sold for enough extra to cover the higher cost. You do not want to own SPY call calendar spreads which might become in the money on the third Friday of March, June, September, or December because you will have to buy them back on Thursday to avoid paying the dividend, and you may not want to make that purchase to keep your entire portfolio balanced.
Tags: Auto-Trade, Bearish Options Strategies, Bullish Options strategies, Calendar Spreads, Calls, Credit Spreads, diagonal spreads, ETF, Out-Of-The-Money Calls, Out-Of-The-Money Options, Profit, Puts, SPY, Terry's Tips, thinkorswim, VIX, Volatility
Posted in 10K Strategies, Monthly Options, SPY, Stock Option Trading Idea Of The Week, Stock Options Strategies, Terry's Tips Portfolios, Weekly Options | 1 Comment »
Monday, January 28th, 2013
In our efforts to find new and different option opportunities in this world of 5-year-low SPY option prices, we have been checking out pre-earnings-announcement strategies.
Just prior to the earnings announcement, implied volatility (IV) of the options which expire just after the announcement escalates due to the uncertainty of what the earnings, sales, margins, or guidance might be.
We have had some success buying calendar spreads at strikes below, near, and above the stock price in advance of an earnings announcement. These spreads have a tremendous IV advantage (the options we sell have a higher IV, making them more “expensive” than the options we buy).
Last week, we used this strategy on Starbucks (SBUX). When we used just the calendar spreads, we managed to make 11% after commissions by selling the spreads the day after the announcement. This was out fourth consecutive week of making pre-earnings announcement gains.
In addition to the calendar spreads, we also bought some extra straddles or strangles (both puts and calls) which were designed to protect the entire portfolio against a loss in case the stock moved big-time after the announcement. This time around, with SBUX edging up about $1.50 after the announcement, the straddle-strangle protection lost money when IV for those options plummeted after the announcement, and the portfolio that used both calendars and strangles broke even for the week.
While studying the past history of SBUX we discovered an interesting pattern which is the subject of this week’s Idea of the Week.
Terry
A Post-Earnings Starbucks (SBUX) Play
Last week SBUX rose $2.00 for the week, spurred higher by a good earnings report and the company re-affirming guidance. We checked back over the last 13 times when SBUX rose by $2.00 or more in a week and learned that in the subsequent weeks, 10 times at some point during the week, SBUX traded at least $1.00 lower.
With SBUX trading at $56.81, I will be buying Mar-13 57.5 puts, hopefully paying about $2.19, Friday’s closing ask price. Immediately after making this purchase I will place an order to sell those puts for $.70 higher than what I paid for them (if the stock falls by $1.00 this put option should move $.70 higher).
If this trade executes, I should make about 30% on my money after commissions.
If the stock starts moving higher instead of lower, I will sell some Feb1-13 57.5 puts to reduce or eliminate possible losses (but I will be careful not to sell quite as many puts as I own long ones so that if the stock does fall, I should still make a gain).
I expect to close out the positions by the end of the week unless the stock has edged up to being very close to $57.50 in which case I might sell the next Weekly series 57,5 puts because the time premium should be quite high (and I have six more weeks over which I can continue to sell puts at this strike so that I can get back my initial $2.19 back, and more).
Tags: Calendar Spreads, Calls, Credit Spreads, Earnings Announcement, Earnings Option Strategy, Earnings Play, ETF, implied volatility, Portfolio, Profit, profits, Puts, Risk, SBUX, Startbucks, Stocks vs. Stock Options, Terry's Tips, thinkorswim, VIX, Volatility
Posted in Earnings Announcement Options Strategy, Last Minute Strategy, Stock Option Trading Idea Of The Week, Stock Options Strategies, Terry's Tips Portfolios | No Comments »
Monday, January 7th, 2013
Two messages again today – first, a reminder that in celebration of the New Year, I am making the best offer to come on board that I have ever offered. The offer expires in three days. Don’t miss out.
Second, one of our portfolios gained an astonishing 124% last week. I want to tell you about this portfolio, reveal the exact positions we hold, and show how it should unfold next week (and thereafter).
How the Dog of Dogs Portfolio Made 124% Last Week
This portfolio is based on the expectation that the volatility ETN VXX will continue its downward slope in the future. The following is an excerpt from the weekly newsletter I send to my paying subscribers:
Summary of Dog of Dogs Portfolio
This $5000 portfolio is designed to take advantage of the long-term inevitable price pattern of VXX.. Because of contango, the way it is constructed, and the management fee, the stock is destined to fall over the long term. Twice in the last three years, 1 – 4 reverse splits had to be made so there would be some reasonable price to trade. We use calendar spreads at strikes below the underlying price.
As a reminder why we call this the Dog of Dogs portfolio, here is the 4-year graph of this ETN since it was formed:

The stock never really traded for $2800 as the graph suggests – adjusting for the two reverse splits made it seem that way. This surely is the worst-performing “stock” in the entire universe over the past four years.
Here are the current positions we hold in this portfolio:
| |
|
|
Dog Of Dogs
|
|
| |
Price:
|
|
$27.55
|
Portfolio Gain since 12/04/12 = |
+14.5%
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
Option
|
|
Strike
|
Symbol
|
Price
|
Total
|
Delta
|
Gamma
|
Theta
|
|
-3
|
Jan2-13
|
P |
27
|
VXX130111P27 |
$0.42
|
($126)
|
|
|
|
|
-6
|
Jan2-13
|
P |
28
|
VXX130111P28 |
$0.97
|
($579)
|
|
|
|
|
-4
|
Jan2-13
|
P |
28.5
|
VXX130111P28.5 |
$1.32
|
($528)
|
|
|
|
|
-3
|
Jan-13
|
P |
28
|
VXX130119P28 |
$1.46
|
($437)
|
|
|
|
|
6
|
Feb-13
|
P |
28
|
VXX130216P28 |
$2.59
|
$1,551
|
|
|
|
|
6
|
Feb-13
|
P |
29
|
VXX130216P29 |
$3.23
|
$1,935
|
|
|
|
|
7
|
Feb-13
|
P |
30
|
VXX130216P30 |
$4.03
|
$2,818
|
|
|
|
|
3
|
Mar-13
|
P |
28
|
VXX130316P28 |
$3.45
|
$1,035
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
Cash
|
$57
|
-303
|
-167
|
$9
|
| |
Total Account Value |
|
$5,726
|
-5.3%
|
|
|
|
6
|
|
|
|
|
Annualized ROI at today’s net Theta: |
57%
|
Results for the week: With VXX down $7.88 (22.2%) for the week, the portfolio gained $3,361 or 142.1%. We were patient while VXX headed higher due to fiscal cliff uncertainties, and this week our patience was rewarded as VXX fell big-time. Next week looks potentially great even if VXX does not continue to fall. A flat or lower price for VXX should result in a double-digit gain for the week.

The risk profile graph shows that if the stock is at the same level ($27.55) next Friday, the premium we collect from having sold puts at the 27, 28, and 28.5 strikes will decay sufficiently to return a gain of $740 (about 12%) even if the stock does not fall as history suggests it will. The graph also shows that a double-digit gain for the week can be expected at almost any lower price for the stock as well (this is possible because we hold six extra uncovered long puts).
Note: Most Terry’s Tips paying subscribers mirror this portfolio (and/or others of our 8 total portfolio offerings) through the Auto-Trade program at thinkorswim rather than making the trades on their own. We invite you to join us as a paying subscriber at the lowest price we have ever offered.
Tags: Auto-Trade, Calendar Spreads, Calls, Credit Spreads, ETF, ETN, Monthly Options, Portfolio, Profit, profits, Puts, Risk, Stocks vs. Stock Options, Terry's Tips, thinkorswim, VIX, Volatility, VXX, Weekly Options
Posted in 10K Strategies, Earnings Announcement Options Strategy, Stock Option Trading Idea Of The Week, Stock Options Strategies, Terry's Tips Portfolios, VXX, Weekly Options | No Comments »
Monday, December 31st, 2012
To celebrate the coming of the New Year I am making the best offer to come on board that I have ever offered. It is time limited. Don’t miss out.
Invest in Yourself in 2013 (at the Lowest Rate Ever)
The presents are unwrapped. The New Year is upon us. Start it out right by doing something really good for yourself, and your loved ones.
The beginning of the year is a traditional time for resolutions and goal-setting. It is a perfect time to do some serious thinking about your financial future.
I believe that the best investment you can ever make is to invest in yourself, no matter what your financial situation might be. Learning a stock option investment strategy is a low-cost way to do just that.
As our New Year’s gift to you, we are offering our service at the lowest price in the history of our company. If you ever considered becoming a Terry’s Tips Insider, this would be the absolutely best time to do it. Read on…
Don’t you owe it to yourself to learn a system that carries a very low risk and could gain 36% a year as many of our portfolios have done?
So what’s the investment? I’m suggesting that you spend a small amount to get a copy of my 70-page (electronic) White Paper, and devote some serious early-2013 hours studying the material.
And now for the Special Offer – If you make this investment in yourself by midnight, January 9, 2013, this is what happens:
For a one-time fee of only $39.95, you receive the White Paper (which normally costs $79.95 by itself), which explains my two favorite option strategies in detail, 20 “Lazy Way” companies with a minimum 100% gain in 2 years, mathematically guaranteed, if the stock stays flat or goes up, plus the following services :
1) Two free months of the Terry’s Tips Stock Options Tutorial Program, (a $49.90 value). This consists of 14 individual electronic tutorials delivered one each day for two weeks, and weekly Saturday Reports which provide timely Market Reports, discussion of option strategies, updates and commentaries on 8 different actual option portfolios, and much more.
2) Emailed Trade Alerts. I will email you with any trades I make at the end of each trading day, so you can mirror them if you wish (or with our Premium Service, you will receive real-time Trade Alerts as they are made for even faster order placement or Auto-Trading with a broker). These Trade Alerts cover all 8 portfolios we conduct.
3) If you choose to continue after two free months of the Options Tutorial Program, do nothing, and you’ll be billed at our discounted rate of $19.95 per month (rather than the regular $24.95 rate).
4) Access to the Insider’s Section of Terry’s Tips, where you will find many valuable articles about option trading, and several months of recent Saturday Reports and Trade Alerts.
5) A FREE special report “How We Made 100% on Apple in 2010-11 While AAPL Rose Only 25%”. This report is a good example of how our Shoot Strategy works for individual companies that you believe are headed higher.
With this one-time offer, you will receive all of these benefits for only $39.95, less than the price of the White Paper alone. I have never made an offer better than this in the twelve years I have published Terry’s Tips. But you must order by midnight on January 9, 2013. Click here, choose “White Paper with Insider Membership”, and enter Special Code 2013 (or 2013P for Premium Service – $79.95).
Investing in yourself is the most responsible New Year’s Resolution you could make for 2013. I feel confident that this offer could be the best investment you ever make in yourself.
Happy New Year! I hope 2013 is your most prosperous ever. I look forward to helping you get 2013 started right by sharing this valuable investment information with you.
Terry
P.S. If you would have any questions about this offer or Terry’s Tips, please call Seth Allen, our Senior Vice President at 800-803-4595. Or make this investment in yourself at the lowest price ever offered in our 8 years of publication – only $39.95 for our entire package - using Special Code 2013 (or 2013P for Premium Service – $79.95).
Tags: Bearish Options Strategies, Bullish Options strategies, Calendar Spreads, Calls, Credit Spreads, diagonal spreads, ETF, LEAPS, Market Crash Protection, Monthly Options, Options Tutorial Program, Portfolio, profits, Puts, shoot strategy, SPY, Stocks vs. Stock Options, Terry's Tips, thinkorswim, VIX, Volatility, VXX, Weekly Options, White Paper
Posted in 10K Strategies, AAPL, Lazy Way Strategy, SPY, Stock Option Trading Idea Of The Week, Stock Options Strategies, Terry's Tips Portfolios, Weekly Options | 1 Comment »
Sunday, December 9th, 2012
Back spreads and ratio spreads are usually discussed together because they are simply the mirror image of each other. Back spreads and ratio spreads are comprised of either both calls or both puts at two different strike prices in the same expiration month. If the spread has more long contracts than short contracts, it is a Back Spread. If there are more short contracts, it is a Ratio Spread.
Since ratio spreads involve selling “naked” (i.e., uncovered by another long option) they can’t be used in an IRA. For that reason, and because we like to sleep better at night knowing that we are not naked short and could possibly lose more than our original investment, we do not trade ratio spreads at Terry’s Tips.
Back spreads involve selling one option and buying a greater quantity of an option with a more out-of-the-money strike. The options are either both calls or both puts.
A typical back spread using calls might consist of buying 10 at-the-money calls and selling 5 in-the-money calls at a strike low enough to buy the entire back spread at a credit.
Ideally, you collect a credit when you set up a back spread. Since the option you are buying is less expensive than the one you are buying, it is always possible to set up the back spread at a credit. You would like as many extra long positions as possible to maximize your gains if the underlying makes a big move in the direction you are betting.
If you are wrong and the underlying moves in the opposite direction that you originally hoped, if you had set up the back spread at a net credit at the beginning, all of your options will expire worthless and you will be able to keep the original credit as pure profit (after paying commissions on the original trades, of course).
Call back spreads work best when the stock price makes a large move up; put back spreads work best when the stock price makes a large move down.
One of the easiest ways to think about a back spread is as a vertical with some extra long options. A call back spread is a bear vertical (typically a short call vertical) plus extra long call options at the higher of the two strikes. A put back spread is a bull vertical (typically a short put vertical) plus extra long put options at the lower of the two strikes.
The purpose of a back spread is to profit on a quick extended move toward, through and beyond the long strike. The purchase of a quantity of more long options is financed by the sale of fewer short options. The danger is that because the short options are usually in the money, they might grow faster than the long out-of-the-money options if the stock price moves more slowly or with less magnitude than expected. This happens even faster as expiration approaches. The long out-of-the-money options may lose value despite a favorable move in the stock price, and that same move in the stock price may increase the value of the short options. This is when the back spread loses value most quickly. This is depicted in the “valley” of the risk profile graphs. The greatest loss in the graph occurs at exactly the strike price of the long options.
There are two reasons that I personally don’t like back spreads. First, they are negative theta. That means you lose money on your positions every day that nothing much happens to the underlying strike price.
Second, and more importantly, the gains you make in the good time periods are inconsequential compared to the large losses you could incur in the other time periods. If the stock moves in the opposite way you are hoping, you end up making a very small gain (the initial credit you collected when the positions were originally placed). If the underlying doesn’t move much, your losses could be huge. On the other hand, in order for you to make large gains when the market moves in the direction you hope it will, the move must be very large before significant gains come about.
Here is the risk profile graph for a back spread on SPY (buying 10 Dec-12 142 calls for $1.55 and selling 6 Dec-12 140 calls for $2.78 when SPY was trading at $142.20 and there were two weeks until expiration):

You have about $1100 at risk (the $1200 maintenance requirement less the $115 credit (after commissions) you collected at the outset. If the stock falls by more than $2.20 so that all the calls expire worthless, you would gain the $115 credit. If the stock moves higher by $2, you would lose just about that same amount. It would have to move $2.20 higher before a gain could be expected on the upside, and every dollar the stock moved higher from there would result in a $400 gain (the number of extra calls you own).
The big problem is that if the stock doesn’t do much of anything, you stand to lose about $1000, a far greater loss than most of the scenarios when a gain could be expected. In order for you to make $1000 with these positions, the stock would have to go up by $5 in the two-week period. Of course, that happens once in a great while, but probably less than 10% of the time. There there is a much greater likelihood of its moving less than $2 in either direction (and a loss would occur at any point within that range).
Bottom line, back spreads might be considered if you have a strong feeling that the underlying stock might move strongly in one direction or another, but I believe that there are other more promising directional strategies such as vertical spreads, calendar or diagonal spreads, or even straddles or strangles that make more sense to me.
Tags: Back Spread, Bearish Options Strategies, Bullish Options strategies, Calendar Spreads, Calls, Credit Spreads, diagonal spreads, ETF, IRA, Market Crash Protection, Monthly Options, Profit, profits, Ratio Spread, SPY, Stocks vs. Stock Options, Straddles, Strangles, Terry's Tips, theta, Weekly Options
Posted in Monthly Options, SPY, Stock Options Strategies, Terry's Tips Portfolios, Weekly Options | 1 Comment »
Monday, December 3rd, 2012
This week I wrote an article for Seeking Alpha which describes an option portfolio that bets on VIX moving higher as uncertainty grows over the looming fiscal cliff. The best part of the deal is that the options will make about a 50% gain even if VIX doesn’t go up a bit over the next three weeks until the options expire.
Please read this important article as it could show you a way to provide extremely good protection against you other investments should the market take a big dive this month.
Black Swan Insurance
Here’s the link:
Black Swan Insurance That Might Pay Off Even If There Is No Crash
This is a very simple strategy that involvBlack Swan Insurance That Might Pay Off Even If There Is No Crashes buying in-the-money Dec-12 13 calls and selling a smaller number of Dec-12 16 calls. You are setting up a vertical spread for some of the calls and holding several calls uncovered long. The 13 calls have essentially no time premium in them and the 16 calls have a lot of time premium since they are very close to the money.
The only scenario where these positions lose money is if VIX falls much below 15 when the options expire on December 19. For its entire history, VIX has traded below 15 on only a few rare occasions, and it always moved higher shortly thereafter.
If VIX does get down close to 15 as expiration nears, additional calls might be sold against the uncovered long calls you own, maybe at the 15 strike.. This would expand the downside break-even range about a half a dollar.
There are a few things that you should know about trading VIX options. Weekly options are not available. You are restricted to the regular monthly option series. Even more restricting, calendar spreads and diagonal spreads are not allowed in VIX options because the underlying entity is a derivative rather than an actual stock. You are pretty much restricted to vertical or back spreads unless you want to post a large maintenance requirement.
In spite of these limitations, VIX options are a lot better than VXX if you want to buy portfolio insurance. VXX suffers from contango dilution most of the time while VIX fluctuates independent of any such headwinds.
Tags: Bearish Options Strategies, Calls, Credit Spreads, diagonal spreads, ETF, ETN, Market Crash Protection, Monthly Options, Portfolio, Profit, profits, Puts, Risk, Stocks vs. Stock Options, Terry's Tips, thinkorswim, VIX, Volatility, VXX
Posted in Monthly Options, Stock Option Trading Idea Of The Week, Stock Options Strategies, Terry's Tips Portfolios, VXX | No Comments »
Tuesday, November 20th, 2012
The world of stock options is every changing. Last week, three new series of options were introduced. Options trades should be aware of these new options, and understand how they might fit into their options strategies, no matter what those strategies might be.
Three New (Weekly) Options Series Introduced
Last week, the CBOE announced the arrival of several new options series for our favorite ETFs as well as four individual popular stocks which have extremely high options activity.
Here they are:

For the above entities, there are now four Weekly options series available at any given time. In the past, Weekly options for the following week became available on a Thursday (with eight days of remaining life).
This is a big change for those of us who trade the Weeklys (I know that seems to be a funny way to spell the plural of Weekly, but that is what the CBOE does). No longer will we have to wait until Thursday to roll over short options to the next week to gain maximum decay (theta) for our short positions.
The stocks and ETFs for which the new Weeklys are available are among the most active options markets out there. Already, these markets have very small bid-ask spreads (meaning that you can usually get very good executions, often at the mid-point of the bid-ask spread rather than being forced to buy at the ask price and sell at the bid price). This advantage should extend to the new Weekly series, although I have noticed that the bid-ask spreads are slightly higher for the third and fourth weeks out, at least at this time.
The new Weeklys will particularly be important for Apple. Option prices have traditionally sky-rocketed for the option series which comes a few days after their quarterly earnings announcements. In the past, a popular strategy was to place a calendar or diagonal spread in advance of an announcement (further-out options tend to be far less expensive (lower implied volatility) than those expiring shortly after the announcement, and potentially profitable spreads are often available. The long side had to be the newt monthly series, often a full three weeks later.
With the new Weekly series now being available, extremely inexpensive spreads might be possible, with the long side having only seven days of more time than the Weeklys that you are selling. It will be very interesting come next January.
Bottom line, the new Weekly series will give you far more flexibility in taking a short-term view on stock price movement and/or volatility changes, plus more ways to profit from time decay. It is good news for all options traders.
Tags: AAPL, BAC, BP, Citicorp, EEM, ETF, ETN, GLD, IWM, Profit, QQQ, SPY, Stocks vs. Stock Options, Terry's Tips, Volatility, Weekly Options, XLF
Posted in AAPL, Monthly Options, SPY, Stock Option Trading Idea Of The Week, Weekly Options | 1 Comment »
Monday, August 6th, 2012
For the past several weeks we have been discussing how to make money buying options. For those of you who have been following us for any extended time, you understand that this is a total departure from our long-standing belief that the best way to make maximum returns is to sell short-term options to someone else.
A combination of low option prices and high actual volatility has recently caused us to reverse our strategy. Now seems to be a good time to be buying either or both puts or calls. Rather than blindly buying an option and hoping for the best, we are continually on the look-out for something that will give us an edge in making this buying decision.
Last week we couldn’t find an edge we were comfortable with. We considered buying a straddle on Thursday in advance of the jobs report but the market had been quiet all week and we sat on the sidelines. Unfortunately, as it worked out. SPY rose almost 2% on Friday and we would have easily doubled our money if we had pulled the trigger.
Today we will talk about one of those possible edges.
Another Interesting Time to Buy Options
It seems to happen every summer. While the overall market doesn’t seem to do much of anything (that’s why they call it the summer doldrums I suppose), on many days, the market just seems to jump all over the place. It could be that so many traders are on vacation that the few who are working are able to move the market with very few trades.
A more likely explanation is the computer-generated program trading that has taken over the market lately. The average holding period for a stock in our country is now less than two seconds according to one study. When the computers sense unusual buying or selling coming into the market, they place trades in advance of the orders getting to the exchanges. This adds to the momentum and pushes the market sharply in one direction or the other.
At some point, the momentum shifts, and the market moves sharply in the other direction.
Check out the price action of SPY on Fridays for the past ten weeks:
June 1 -3.30
June 8 +1.05
June 15 +1.30 Monthly X dividend
June 22 +1.05
June 29 +3.31
July 6 -1.30
July 13 +2.20
July 20 -1.30 Monthly X dividend
July 27 +2.51
Aug 3 +2.70
If you had bought a slightly out-of-the-money put and call (or an at-the-money straddle) on essentially any one of the Thursdays preceding these Fridays, you would have surely made money when the stock moved well over a dollar the next day. These puts and calls with only one day of remaining life are quite cheap, and could easily double or triple in value if the market moves by over $2 which it has on half of the Fridays this summer.
This edge probably does not extend to other months of the year, however. In April and May, the stock did not move over $.75 on any Friday. So it seems to be a summer phenomenon.
Buying options is risky business because you can lose 100% of your investment. But doing it with small amounts when you see an edge like this Friday action (or before jobs reports, or on the Monday following the monthly option expiration), the odds may shift in your favor.
Be careful, and good luck. Never invest money that you can’t afford to lose.
Tags: Calls, ETF, Monthly Options, Overbought, Oversold, Portfolio, Profit, profits, Puts, Risk, SPY, Straddles, Strangles, Terry's Tips, VIX, Volatility, Weekly Options
Posted in Monthly Options, SPY, Stock Option Trading Idea Of The Week, Stock Options Strategies | No Comments »
Monday, July 30th, 2012
Last week we made a little trade that doubled our investment in one day. Every month, a similar opportunity presents itself. Of course, it doesn’t always work out this nicely, but it seems to do well most of the time. Today, I would like to share our thinking with this trade.
An Interesting Post-Expiration Play
Many investors are aware of a couple of phenomena which seem to prevail in the market. The first is that the Monday after the regular monthly options expiration is generally a weak day for the market. The second is that the first trading day of each month is usually a strong day.
When other indicators also suggest that these generalizations might hold true, it might be a good time to make the outright purchase of a put or call.
On Friday, July 20, the regular monthly options expired. At that time, the market was also in an overbought condition (one of the indicators that we follow, RSI, was over 70). Overbought conditions are not nearly as important indicators as are oversold conditions, but they are something to consider nonetheless.
Our favorite ETF to use when buying options is the Russell 2000 Small-Cap (IWM). It seems to fluctuate in the same direction as SPY, but by larger percentages. On expiration Friday, with IWM trading right around $79, we bought a Jul4-12 Weekly 79 put for $.85. Actually, we bought 5 of them, shelling out $425 plus $6.25 for commissions (our broker, thinkorswim, charges Terry’s Tips subscribers a flat $1.25 per option contract).
On Monday, we placed a limit order to sell those puts if the price got up to $1.73. The stock tumbled almost $2 on that day, and our order executed. We were delighted to double our money after paying the commissions. After commissions, we made a profit of $427.50 on our initial investment of $425.
We could have made more if we had waited a little longer, but we’ll take double our money any day. Selling when we did ultimately proved to be a good idea because by the end of the week, our puts expired worthless when the stock rose to above $79.
Last week was a great one for anyone who bought either puts or calls. Option prices were low (lower than they are this week) and volatility was high. If you were willing to accept a moderate profit on your option buy, you could have done well either with puts or calls last week.
For most of the past couple of months (and all of last summer as well), option prices have been lower than the actual volatility of the market (SPY, and IWM). This means that a good strategy has been to buy options rather than sell them (which is our usual preference).
This week, the first trading day of August falls on Wednesday. We might be inclined to buy a call on IWM because the market is often strong on that day. However, option prices (VIX) rose 5% Monday morning so options are not quite so cheap this week. With the big run-up in the market last Friday (SPY gained almost 2%), we are probably due for some weakness soon, so we are probably not going to buy a call this time around. We like to see other indicators which support our buying decision, and we don’t see any at this point in time. (RSI is neutral, for example.)
Buying options is still probably a good short-term idea, but sometimes it is safer just to sit on the sidelines for a week or so and wait for a more opportune time.
Tags: ETF, IWM, Monthly Options, Overbought, Oversold, Portfolio, Profit, RSI, Stocks vs. Stock Options, Terry's Tips, thinkorswim, VIX, Volatility, Weekly Options
Posted in Monthly Options, SPY, Stock Option Trading Idea Of The Week, Terry's Tips Portfolios, Weekly Options | 1 Comment »
Monday, July 16th, 2012
For most of the last year, the market (SPY) and many individual stocks have fluctuated more than the implied volatility of the options would predict. This situation has made it quite difficult to make gains with the calendar spread strategy that we have long advocated.
Now we are experimenting with buying straddles as an alternative to our basic strategy. This represents a total reversal from hoping for a flat market to betting on a fluctuating one.
Today I would like to report on a straddle purchase I made last week.
Another Buying Straddles Story
I selected the Russell 2000 (Small-Cap) Index (IWM) as the underlying. For many years, this equity seems to fluctuate in the same direction and by about the same amount as the market in general (SPY) although it is trading for far less ($80 vs. $134) so the percentage fluctuations are greater.
On Monday morning, IWM was trading right about $80. I bought an 80 straddle using IWM (Jul2-12 puts and calls), paying $1.53 for the pair. If IWM moved by $1.53 in either direction, the intrinsic value of either the puts or calls would be $1.53, and there would be some time premium remaining so that either the puts or calls could be sold for a profit.
How likely was IWM to move by more than $1.53 in either direction in only one week? Looking back at weekly price behavior for IWM, I found that in 62 of the past 66 weeks, IWM had fluctuated at least $1.60 during the week in one direction or another. That is the key number I needed to make the purchase. That meant that if the historical pattern repeated itself, I could count on making a profit in 94% of the weeks. I would be quite happy with anything near that result.
Buying a straddle fits my temperament because I was not choosing which way the market might be headed (something I know from experience that I can’t do very well, at least in the short term), and I knew that I could not lose 100% of my investment (even on Friday and the stock had not moved, there would still be some time premium remaining in the options that could be sold for something).
One on the biggest problems with trading straddles is the decision on when to sell one or both sides of the trade. We’ll discuss some of the choices next week. What I did was place a limit order to take a reasonable profit if it came along. When IWM had fallen about $1.75, I sold my puts for $1.85 on Thursday. On Friday the stock reversed itself, and I was able to collect $.17 by selling the calls, making a total 20% after commissions for the week. Not a bad result, I figured.
At some point during the week, there were opportunities to sell both the puts and calls for more than I sold them for, but I was delighted with taking a reasonable profit. You can’t look back when trading straddles. If I had not sold the calls but waited until the end of the week, I would have lost about 70% of my original purchase. So selling when you have a small profit is clearly the way to go.
Tags: Bearish Options Strategies, Bullish Options strategies, Calendar Spreads, ETF, IWM, Profit, Puts, SPY, Straddles, Strangles, Terry's Tips, Volatility, Weekly Options
Posted in Monthly Options, SPY, Stock Option Trading Idea Of The Week, Stock Options Strategies, Terry's Tips Portfolios, Weekly Options | No Comments »
Follow Terry's Tips on Twitter
Like Terry's Tips on Facebook
Watch Terry's Tips on YouTube