Netflix (NFLX) Shows Renewed Upward Momentum

This week we are looking at another of the Investor’s Business Daily (IBD) Top 50 List companies.  We use this list in one of our options portfolios to spot outperforming stocks and place option spreads that take advantage of the momentum.

Netflix, a recent addition to the IBD Top 50 list, has shown strong bullish momentum despite a brief dip following its recent earnings report. The following article highlights some of the positive takeaways from the earnings report – 6 Critical Takeaways Learned From Netflix’s Q4 Earnings Report. Also, take a look at this recent CNBC article which includes details of a price target upgrade and a video interview with Mark Cuban – Netflix stock climbed more than 7%, its best day of trading for the year.

Technicals

The strongest signal from NFLX comes from a bullish breach above $336 which was an important price point in 2019. But more important is the manner in which the stock did so. There was an initial dip lower following the earnings report, which might have spooked investors, that followed with a momentum-driven rally. This type of price action often occurs when the market participants are searching for liquidity to establish large bullish positions. It holds especially true during earnings releases as trading volumes tend to be elevated. Further, the stock once again trades comfortably above its 100-week moving average which has been an important indicator in the past. The next major level of interest to the upside is $374 while $336 is expected to support any near-term dips.

NFLX Chart January 2020

If you agree there’s further upside ahead for NFLX, consider this trade which is a bet that the stock will continue to advance over the next five weeks, or at least not decline very much.

Buy To Open NFLX 28FEB20 350 Puts (NFLX200228P350)
Sell To Open NFLX 28FEB20 352.5 Puts (NFLX200228P352.5) for a credit of $1.13 (selling a vertical)

This price was $0.02 less than the mid-point of the option spread when NFLX was trading near $353.  Unless the stock rallies quickly from here, you should be able to get close to this amount.

Your commission on this trade will only be $1.30 per spread.  Each contract would then yield $111.70 and your broker would charge a $250 maintenance fee, making your investment $138.30 ($250 – $111.70).  If NFLX closes at any price above $352.50 on February 28, both options would expire worthless, and your return on the spread would be 81% (924% annualized).

Changes to Investor’s Business Daily (IBD) Top 50 This Week:

IBD Underlying Updates January 25, 2020

We have found that the Investor’s Business Daily Top 50 List has been a reliable source of stocks that are likely to move higher in the short run.  Recent additions to the list might be particularly good choices for this strategy, and deletions might be good indicators for exiting a position that you might already have on that stock.

As with all investments, you should only make option trades with money that you can truly afford to lose.

Happy trading,

Terry