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Archive for the ‘SPY’ Category

Will Amazon (AMZN) Break Higher Into the Year-End?

Monday, November 30th, 2020

This week we are looking at another of the Investor’s Business Daily (IBD) Top 50 List companies.  We use this list in one of our options portfolios to spot outperforming stocks and place option spreads that take advantage of the momentum.

AMZN is up 74% in the year thus far and looks poised to continue the uptrend. The following two articles highlight some of the reasons investors may continue to push the stock price higher –  Cramer’s Year-End Game Plan: Load Up On Digital Retailers and Wall Street Analysts Say These 5 Stocks Are A Buy As The World Prepares For The Post-COVID-19 Era.

Technicals

AMZN has been consolidating sideways within a triangle since the start of September. These types of consolidations often end with an upward break when they are preceded by a strong bullish trend. On a monthly chart, the stock is set to print a bullish reversal candlestick pattern which hints that the uptrend might be restarting. Lastly, as mentioned in one of the articles above, seasonality patterns show that AMZN typically performs well in this part of the year.

AMZN Chart November 2020 - Year end upwards break

AMZN Chart November 2020

If you agree there’s further upside ahead for AMZN, consider this trade which relies on the stock remaining above $3195 through the expiry in six weeks.

Buy To Open AMZN 8JAN21 3190 Puts (AMZN210108P3190)
Sell To Open AMZN 8JAN21 3195 Puts (AMZN210108P3195) for a credit of $2.55 (selling a vertical)

This credit is $0.02 less than the mid-point of the option spread when AMZN was trading near $3195.  Unless the stock rallies quickly from here, you should be able to get close to this amount.

Your commission on this trade will be only $1.30 per spread.  Each spread would then yield $253.70. This reduces your buying power by $500 and makes your investment $246.30 ($500 – $253.70).  If AMZN closes at any price above $3195 on January 8, both options will expire worthless, and your return on the spread would be 103% ($253.70 / $246.30), or 964% annualized.

Changes to Investor’s Business Daily (IBD) Top 50 This Week:

IBD Underlying Updates November 28, 2020

IBD Underlying Updates November 28, 2020

We have found that the Investor’s Business Daily Top 50 List has been a reliable source of stocks that are likely to move higher in the short run.  Recent additions to the list might be particularly good choices for this strategy, and deletions might be good indicators for exiting a position that you might already have on that stock.

As with all investments, you should only make option trades with money that you can truly afford to lose.

Happy trading,

Terry

Investors Flock to Facebook (FB) Post-Election

Monday, November 9th, 2020

This week we are looking at another of the Investor’s Business Daily (IBD) Top 50 List companies.  We use this list in one of our options portfolios to spot outperforming stocks and place option spreads that take advantage of the momentum.

Facebook rose sharply higher in the past week for a gain of 11.5%. The following two articles discuss the rationale behind the move and its implications – 3 Stocks That Are Big Winners After The U.S. Election and Best Mutual Funds Buy Up FANG Stocks Amazon, Alphabet, Facebook.

Technicals

The price action points to the same narrative as suggested by the articles mentioned above. There was a large move lower ahead of the election, likely attributed to investors covering their position ahead of the election. But then the rally in the past week catapulted FB to a new 2-month high, signaling a clear shift in sentiment from the earlier uncertainty. Further, FB’s outperformance compared to the broader markets during this time shows that it remains a favorite among investors. Near-term support is seen at $284 as the price point acted as resistance last month. The strong show of buying as of late suggests that near-term dips will be shallow, but if FB dips below $284, further support is seen at the 50-Day moving average. This moving average falls near a rising trendline that originates from a low printed in late June.

FB Chart November 2020 - Post election spike FANG

FB Chart November 2020

If you agree there’s further upside ahead for FB, consider this trade which relies on the stock remaining above the $292.5 level through the expiration in five weeks.

Buy To Open FB 11DEC20 290 Puts (FB201211P290)
Sell To Open FB 11DEC20 292.5 Puts (FB201211P292.5) for a credit of $1.08 (selling a vertical)

This credit is $0.02 less than the mid-point of the option spread when FB was trading near $293.  Unless the stock rallies quickly from here, you should be able to get close to this amount.

Your commission on this trade will be only $1.30 per spread.  Each spread would then yield $106.70. This reduces your buying power by $250 and makes your investment $143.30 ($250 – $106.70).  If FB closes at any price above $292.5 on December 11, both options will expire worthless, and your return on the spread would be 74% ($106.70 / $143.30), or 844% annualized.

Changes to Investor’s Business Daily (IBD) Top 50 This Week:

IBD Underlying Updates November 7, 2020

IBD Underlying Updates November 7, 2020

We have found that the Investor’s Business Daily Top 50 List has been a reliable source of stocks that are likely to move higher in the short run.  Recent additions to the list might be particularly good choices for this strategy, and deletions might be good indicators for exiting a position that you might already have on that stock.

As with all investments, you should only make option trades with money that you can truly afford to lose.

Happy trading,

Terry

Can ADBE (ABDE) Hold Above the $500 Price Point?

Monday, October 19th, 2020

This week we are looking at another of the Investor’s Business Daily (IBD) Top 50 List companies.  We use this list in one of our options portfolios to spot outperforming stocks and place option spreads that take advantage of the momentum.

ADBE has doubled from its March low and the following two articles lay out reasons why the stock may continue to gain. One of them even makes a case that the stock is undervalued at current levels, despite to impressive rally as of late – Adobe’s Stock To Continue Growing? and Adobe (ADBE) Up 6.4% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Continue?

Technicals

After correcting lower last month, ADBE is starting to once again show signs of upward momentum. The stock has posted a series of higher highs and higher lows over the last four weeks as it oscillates higher in a rising trend channel. Buyers have defended the lower line of the channel as well as dips towards the 20-Day moving average. Further, a break above the $500 level earlier this month is a sign of strength. Strong near-term support is seen in the $492-$500 area.

ADBE Chart October 2020 above $500

ADBE Chart October 2020

If you agree there’s further upside ahead for ADBE, consider this trade which relies on the stock remaining above the $500 level through the expiration in five weeks.

Buy To Open ADBE 20NOV20 495 Puts (ADBE201120P495)
Sell To Open ADBE 20NOV20 500 Puts (ADBE201120P500) for a credit of $2.08 (selling a vertical)

This credit is $0.02 less than the mid-point of the option spread when ADBE was trading near $503.  Unless the stock rallies quickly from here, you should be able to get close to this amount.

Your commission on this trade will be only $1.30 per spread.  Each spread would then yield $206.70. This reduces your buying power by $500 and makes your investment $293.30 ($500 – $206.70).  If ADBE closes at any price above $500 on November 20, both options will expire worthless, and your return on the spread would be 70% ($206.70 / $293.30), or 798% annualized.

Changes to Investor’s Business Daily (IBD) Top 50 This Week:

IBD Underlying Updates October 17, 2020

IBD Underlying Updates October 17, 2020

We have found that the Investor’s Business Daily Top 50 List has been a reliable source of stocks that are likely to move higher in the short run.  Recent additions to the list might be particularly good choices for this strategy, and deletions might be good indicators for exiting a position that you might already have on that stock.

As with all investments, you should only make option trades with money that you can truly afford to lose.

Happy trading,

Terry

Microsoft (MSFT) – Recent Tech Sell-Off Offers a Buying Opportunity

Monday, September 7th, 2020

This week we are looking at another of the Investor’s Business Daily (IBD) Top 50 List companies.  We use this list in one of our options portfolios to spot outperforming stocks and place option spreads that take advantage of the momentum.

The following two articles offer compelling reasons why MSFT could move higher. The first is an analyst upgrade with a price target of $240 – Microsoft Stock (MSFT) Gets Price Target Increase To $240 From Mizuho. The second article outlines MSFT’s competitive advantages –  2 Tech Stocks That Are Thriving Despite the Coronavirus.

Technicals

We offered a trade idea in MSFT at the start of August and the option spread used in the idea expired for a 74% profit on Friday. Because of the decline over the past few days, the stock is once again testing the same trendline that made the trade attractive last time around. The 50-day moving average is also in play and this is an indicator the stock has not closed below in over four months. Friday’s candlestick formation signals buying activity and that the support confluence is being defended, at least so far.

MSFT Chart September 2020

MSFT Chart September 2020

If you agree there’s further upside ahead for MSFT, consider this trade which relies on the stock remaining above $212.50 through expiration on October 9.

Buy To Open MSFT 09OCT20 210 Puts (MSFT201009P210)
Sell To Open MSFT 09OCT20 212.5 Puts (MSFT201009P212.5) for a credit of $1.20 (selling a vertical)

This credit is $0.02 less than the mid-point of the option spread when MSFT was trading near $214.  Unless the stock rallies quickly from here, you should be able to get close to this amount.

Your commission on this trade will be only $1.30 per spread.  Each spread would then yield $118.70. This reduces your buying power by $250 and makes your investment $131.30 ($250 – $118.70).  If MSFT closes at any price above $212.50 on October 9, both options will expire worthless, and your return on the spread would be 90% ($118.70 / $131.30), or 1027% annualized.

Changes to Investor’s Business Daily (IBD) Top 50 This Week:

IBD Underlying Updates September 5, 2020

IBD Underlying Updates September 5, 2020

We have found that the Investor’s Business Daily Top 50 List has been a reliable source of stocks that are likely to move higher in the short run.  Recent additions to the list might be particularly good choices for this strategy, and deletions might be good indicators for exiting a position that you might already have on that stock.

As with all investments, you should only make option trades with money that you can truly afford to lose.

Happy trading,

Terry

Netflix (NFLX) Regains Upward Momentum

Monday, August 31st, 2020

This week we are looking at another of the Investor’s Business Daily (IBD) Top 50 List companies.  We use this list in one of our options portfolios to spot outperforming stocks and place option spreads that take advantage of the momentum.

NFLX rallied to a six-week high in the past week and shows the potential to continue higher. The following two articles outline reasons why the stock could continue the momentum – Hooking Up or Locking Down, Netflix Poised to Win Either Way, and Netflix (NFLX) Back in Rally Mode After Brief Correction.

Technicals

NFLX has rallied above a horizontal level near $510, which hints that the correction from mid-July to mid-August may have ended. The same level contained an earlier range and may now act as support on near-term declines. There is further support from the lower boundary of a trend channel that has encompassed the price action since March.

NFLX Chart August 2020 regains upward momentum

NFLX Chart August 2020

If you agree there’s further upside ahead for NFLX, consider this trade, which relies on the stock remaining above the 520 level during the next five weeks:

Buy To Open NFLX 2OCT20 515 Puts (NFLX201002P515)
Sell To Open NFLX 2OCT20 520 Puts (NFLX201002P520) for a credit of $3.30 (selling a vertical)

This credit is $0.02 less than the mid-point of the option spread when NFLX was trading near $524. Unless the stock rallies quickly from here, you should be able to get close to this amount.

Your commission on this trade will be only $1.30 per spread.  Each spread would then yield $328.70. This reduces your buying power by $500 and makes your investment $171.30 ($500 – $328.70).  If NFLX closes above $520 on October 2, both options will expire worthless, and your return on the spread would be 192% ($328.70 / $171.30), or 2,190% annualized.

Changes to Investor’s Business Daily (IBD) Top 50 This Week:

IBD Underlying Updates August 29, 2020

IBD Underlying Updates August 29, 2020

We have found that the Investor’s Business Daily Top 50 List has been a reliable source of stocks that are likely to move higher in the short run.  Recent additions to the list might be particularly good choices for this strategy, and deletions might be good indicators for exiting a position that you might already have on that stock.

As with all investments, you should only make option trades with money that you can truly afford to lose.

Happy trading,

Terry

Alibaba (BABA) Looks Appealing After Strong First Quarter Results

Monday, August 24th, 2020

This week we are looking at another of the Investor’s Business Daily (IBD) Top 50 List companies.  We use this list in one of our options portfolios to spot outperforming stocks and place option spreads that take advantage of the momentum.

Several analysts expect more upside for BABA’s stock price. Check out what the following two reports had to say about it – Post-Earnings Alibaba (BABA) Opportunity and Will Alibaba Be the Next Trillion-Dollar Giant?

Technicals

From a technical perspective, BABA has been consolidating within a triangle for the better part of two months. More specifically, the stock is holding in an ascending triangle, a pattern that is bullish. The stock has not yet broken higher from it, but the recent upward momentum hints that it is only a matter of time. Typically, when a consolidation pattern like this is broken, the stock sees a renewal of upward momentum.

BABA Chart August 2020

BABA Chart August 2020

If you agree there’s further upside ahead for BABA, consider this trade, which is a bet that the stock will continue to advance over the next five weeks, or at least not decline by much.

Buy To Open BABA 25SEP20 262.5 Puts (BABA200925P262.5)
Sell To Open BABA 25SEP20 265 Puts (BABA200925P265) for a credit of $1.23 (selling a vertical)

This price was $0.02 less than the mid-point of the option spread when BABA was trading near $266.  Unless the stock rallies quickly from here, you should be able to get close to this amount.

Your commission on this trade will be only $1.30 per spread.  Each spread would then yield $121.70 while your buying power would be reduced by $250, making your net  investment $128.30 ($250 – $121.70).  If BABA closes at any price above $265 on September 25, both options would expire worthless, and your return on the spread would be 95% (121.70/128.30), or 1,084% annualized.

Changes to Investor’s Business Daily (IBD) Top 50 This Week:

IBD Underlying Updates August 22, 2020

IBD Underlying Updates August 22, 2020

We have found that the Investor’s Business Daily Top 50 List has been a reliable source of stocks that are likely to move higher in the short run.  Recent additions to the list might be particularly good choices for this strategy, and deletions might be good indicators for exiting a position that you might already have on that stock.

As with all investments, you should only make option trades with money that you can truly afford to lose.

Happy trading,

Terry

Should You Buy Amazon (AMZN) Following Its Earnings Report?

Monday, August 10th, 2020

This week we are looking at another of the Investor’s Business Daily (IBD) Top 50 List companies.  We use this list in one of our options portfolios to spot outperforming stocks and place option spreads that take advantage of the momentum.

Amazon had a strong quarter and the following two articles outline the earnings report and why the stock may head higher from here – Amazon (AMZN) Q2 Earnings and Revenues Top Estimates and Why Amazon Stock Climbed 14% Last Month.

Technicals

From a technical perspective, AMZN was held lower by a horizontal resistance level near $3250 on the rally that followed the recent earnings report. However, from a broader perspective, the stock has been firmly bid from a rising trendline that originates back to a low posted in March. Considering how long this trendline has been in place, and the long-term trend, the resistance at $3250 does not appear to be a big hurdle and it may only be a matter of time before this stock is trading at fresh all-time highs.

AMZN Chart August 2020 earnings announcment

AMZN Chart August 2020

If you agree there’s further upside ahead for AMZN, consider this trade which is a bet that the stock will continue to advance over the next five weeks, or at least not decline very much.

Buy To Open AMZN 11SEP20 3160 Puts (AMZN200811P3160)
Sell To Open AMZN 11SEP20 3165 Puts (AMZN200811P3165) for a credit of $2.40 (selling a vertical)

This price was $0.02 less than the mid-point of the option spread when AMZN was trading near $3165.  Unless the stock rallies quickly from here, you should be able to get close to this amount.

Your commission on this trade will only be $1.30 per spread.  Each contract would then yield $238.70 and your broker would charge a $500 maintenance fee, making your investment $261.30 ($500 – $238.70).  If AMZN closes at any price above $3165 on September 11, both options would expire worthless, and your return on the spread would be 91% (1038% annualized).

Changes to Investor’s Business Daily (IBD) Top 50 This Week:

IBD Underlying Updates August 8, 2020

IBD Underlying Updates August 8, 2020

We have found that the Investor’s Business Daily Top 50 List has been a reliable source of stocks that are likely to move higher in the short run.  Recent additions to the list might be particularly good choices for this strategy, and deletions might be good indicators for exiting a position that you might already have on that stock.

As with all investments, you should only make option trades with money that you can truly afford to lose.

Happy trading,

Terry

Kroger (KR) Shows Renewed Upward Momentum Following an Earnings-Inspired Dip

Monday, July 6th, 2020

This week we are looking at another of the Investor’s Business Daily (IBD) Top 50 List companies.  We use this list in one of our options portfolios to spot outperforming stocks and place option spreads that take advantage of the momentum.

Several analysts have positive things to say about Kroger, here are two of them – Kroger: How The COVID-19 Crisis Could Provide Long-Term Tailwinds and Are Investors Undervaluing Kroger (KR) Right Now?

Technicals

Kroger corrected lower in June but the decline was shallow which signals underlying strength. Further, the dip that followed their recent earnings report was promptly bought up and the upward momentum has picked up notably since then. Strong support for the stock is seen at $32.70 as the 20 and 50-day moving averages have converged towards each other at that price point. Kroger has not traded below it’s 50-day moving average on a sustained basis for nearly a year as buyers continue to accumulate this stock near that particular indicator. To the upside, the $34.50 price point might be a near-term hurdle as it was in May, but a break above it would clear the path for a retest of the March high near $37.

KR Chart July 2020

KR Chart July 2020

If you agree there’s further upside ahead for KR, consider this trade which is a bet that the stock will continue to advance over the next five weeks, or at least not decline very much.

Buy To Open KR 7AUG20 30.5 Puts (KR20087P30.5)
Sell To Open KR 7AUG20 33.5 Puts (KR20087P33.5) for a credit of $0.87 (selling a vertical)

This price was $0.02 less than the mid-point of the option spread when KR was trading at$33.50.  Unless the stock rallies quickly from here, you should be able to get close to this amount.

Your commission on this trade will only be $1.30 per spread.  Each contract would then yield $85.70 and your broker would charge a $300 maintenance fee, making your investment $214.30 ($300 – $85.70).  If KR closes at any price above $33.50 on August 7, both options would expire worthless, and your return on the spread would be 40% (456% annualized).

Changes to Investor’s Business Daily (IBD) Top 50 This Week:

IBD Underlying Updates July 4, 2020

IBD Underlying Updates July 4, 2020

We have found that the Investor’s Business Daily Top 50 List has been a reliable source of stocks that are likely to move higher in the short run.  Recent additions to the list might be particularly good choices for this strategy, and deletions might be good indicators for exiting a position that you might already have on that stock.

As with all investments, you should only make option trades with money that you can truly afford to lose.

Happy trading,

Terry

American Tower (AMT) Looks Attractive as Investors Once Again Focus on 5G

Monday, May 18th, 2020

This week we are looking at another of the Investor’s Business Daily (IBD) Top 50 List companies.  We use this list in one of our options portfolios to spot outperforming stocks and place option spreads that take advantage of the momentum.

5G was a hot topic among investors ahead of the Coronavirus escalation. Now that the markets are picking up momentum again, companies that stand to gain from this technology are in the spotlight. Take a look at the following article which discusses how AMT stands to gain – 5G Is Still Coming Despite Covid-19. These Are the Stocks Set to Benefit First. Also, have a look at this article – 5G Will Be a Game-Changer for American Tower. It mentions that the stock may see some near-term weakness and that investors should take advantage of that. Interestingly, the stock has shown exactly that as it has pulled back from recent highs since the article was written.

Technicals

Two things stand out in the recent price action for AMT. First, it was able to rally to fresh record highs in April. Although it was brief, it shows strength and provides some confirmation that the uptrend remains intact. The second appeal is that the stock is currently testing its 200-day moving average. This particular indicator was well-respected in late 2019 and managed to hold the stock higher on several tests. It’s one of the more commonly watched moving averages and technical traders will be well aware of its presence.

AMT Chart May 2020: 5G stock resurgance despite COVID

AMT Chart May 2020

If you agree there’s further upside ahead for AMT, consider this trade which is a bet that the stock will continue to advance over the next five weeks, or at least a little.

Buy To Open AMT 19JUN20 220 Puts (AMT200619P220)
Sell To Open AMT 19JUN20 230 Puts (AMT200619P230) for a credit of $3.48 (selling a vertical)

This price was $0.02 less than the mid-point of the option spread when AMT was trading near $230.  Unless the stock rallies quickly from here, you should be able to get close to this amount.

Your commission on this trade will only be $1.30 per spread.  Each contract would then yield $346.70 and your broker would charge a $1000 maintenance fee, making your investment $653.30 ($1000 – $346.70).  If AMT closes at any price above $230 on June 19, both options would expire worthless, and your return on the spread would be 53% (605% annualized).

Changes to Investor’s Business Daily (IBD) Top 50 This Week:

IBD Underlying Updates May 16, 2020

IBD Underlying Updates May 16, 2020

We have found that the Investor’s Business Daily Top 50 List has been a reliable source of stocks that are likely to move higher in the short run.  Recent additions to the list might be particularly good choices for this strategy, and deletions might be good indicators for exiting a position that you might already have on that stock.

As with all investments, you should only make option trades with money that you can truly afford to lose.

Happy trading,

Terry

Buy the Dip in Microsoft (MSFT)

Monday, February 24th, 2020

This week we are looking at another of the Investor’s Business Daily (IBD) Top 50 List companies.  We use this list in one of our options portfolios to spot outperforming stocks and place option spreads that take advantage of the momentum.

Microsoft’s stock price dipped in the past week and these two following articles point out several reasons why investors might want to take advantage of the dip – Microsoft (MSFT): Strong Industry, Solid Earnings Estimate Revisions, and 3 Reasons Microsoft Has More Growth Ahead of It.

Technicals

While MSFT corrected lower last week, downward momentum is lacking when compared to prior weeks. The stock is currently testing the 20-day moving average which is an indicator MSFT has not traded below on a sustained basis in at least six months. Further support is seen at $174 which is a horizontal level near that acted as resistance last month. The strongest appeal to this stock is that the upward momentum has been increasing since it broke out in late October, and this upward momentum has not been negated by the recent dip. It would take a sustained drop below $174 to alter the near-term outlook for MSFT.

MSFT Chart February 2020 buy in dip

MSFT Chart February 2020

If you agree there’s further upside ahead for MSFT, consider this trade which is a bet that the stock will continue to advance over the next five weeks, or at least not decline very much.

Buy To Open MSFT 27MAR20 175 Puts (MSFT200327P175)
Sell To Open MSFT 27MAR20 177.5 Puts (MSFT200327P177.5) for a credit of $0.98 (selling a vertical)

This price was $0.02 less than the mid-point of the option spread when MSFT was trading near $179.  Unless the stock rallies quickly from here, you should be able to get close to this amount.

Your commission on this trade will only be $1.30 per spread.  Each contract would then yield $96.70 and your broker would charge a $250 maintenance fee, making your investment $153.30 ($250 – $96.70).  If MSFT closes at any price above $177.5 on March 27, both options would expire worthless, and your return on the spread would be 63% (719% annualized).

Changes to Investor’s Business Daily (IBD) Top 50 This Week:

IBD Underlying Updates February 22, 2020

IBD Underlying Updates February 22, 2020

We have found that the Investor’s Business Daily Top 50 List has been a reliable source of stocks that are likely to move higher in the short run.  Recent additions to the list might be particularly good choices for this strategy, and deletions might be good indicators for exiting a position that you might already have on that stock.

As with all investments, you should only make option trades with money that you can truly afford to lose.

Happy trading,

Terry

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Success Stories

I have been trading the equity markets with many different strategies for over 40 years. Terry Allen's strategies have been the most consistent money makers for me. I used them during the 2008 melt-down, to earn over 50% annualized return, while all my neighbors were crying about their losses.

~ John Collins