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Archive for the ‘Earnings Announcement Options Strategy’ Category

Match Group (MTCH) Surges to Record Highs, What’s Next?

Monday, August 13th, 2018

This week we are looking at another of the Investor’s Business Daily (IBD) Top 50 List companies.  We use this list in one of our options portfolios to spot outperforming stocks and place option spreads that take advantage of the momentum.

Terry

Match Group (MTCH) Surges to Record Highs, What’s Next?

Match Group broke to record highs in the past week and several analysts believe there is more upside, here are two of them – Match Group Is Still Undervalued and Wall Street is Falling in Love With Match Stock.

The main focus from a technical perspective is the upside momentum triggered by the recent earnings beat.  MTCH climbed above major resistance that is found between $47.00 and $48.65 to trade to record highs.  Recall that the stock traded in this resistance area ahead of the steep fall on news of Facebook launching a new dating service at the start of May.  In the process of breaking to new highs, a succession of higher highs and lower highs has materialized from the May low.  As often seen, the prior resistance area is now considered strong support, suggesting that dips in the stock will be short-lived.

MTCH Chart August 2018

MTCH Chart August 2018

*source Tradingview.com

If you agree there’s further upside ahead for MTCH, consider this trade which is a bet that the stock will continue to advance over the next five weeks, or at least not decline very much.

Buy To Open MTCH 21SEP18 47 Puts (MTCH180821P47)
Sell To Open MTCH 21SEP18 50 Puts (MTCH180821P50) for a credit of $1.03 (selling a vertical)

This price was $0.02 less than the mid-point of the option spread when MTCH was trading near $51.  Unless the stock rallies quickly from here, you should be able to get close to this amount.

Your commission on this trade will only be $2.50 per spread (the rate charged by thinkorswim for Terry’s Tips’ subscribers).  Each contract would then yield $100.50 and your broker would charge a $300 maintenance fee, making your investment $199.50 ($300 – $100.50).  If MTCH closes at any price above $50 on September 21, both options would expire worthless, and your return on the spread would be 50% (468% annualized).

Changes to Investor’s Business Daily (IBD) Top 50 This Week:

IBD Underlying Updates August 9, 2018

IBD Underlying Updates August 9, 2018

We have found that the Investor’s Business Daily Top 50 List has been a reliable source of stocks that are likely to move higher in the short run.  Recent additions to the list might be particularly good choices for this strategy, and deletions might be good indicators for exiting a position that you might already have on that stock.

As with all investments, you should only make option trades with money that you can truly afford to lose.

Happy trading,

Terry

Globus Medical (GMED) Offers an Appealing Entry Point

Sunday, August 5th, 2018

This week we are looking at another of the Investor’s Business Daily (IBD) Top 50 List companies.  We use this list in one of our options portfolios to spot outperforming stocks and place option spreads that take advantage of the momentum.

Terry

Globus Medical (GMED) Offers an Appealing Entry Point

Several analysts are looking for more upside in GMED, take a look at these two analysts who have recently revised up their upside targets – Oppenheimer Analysts Give Globus Medical a $57.00 Price Target and Let’s Make Some Money With Globus Medical.

From a technical perspective, GMED is seen pulling back in the past few sessions to a well-respected horizontal level found at $52.35.  The level has previously acted as both resistance and support, including during a gap down in June.  In addition to the horizontal level, the 200-day moving average is in play and held the stock higher on a dip late in the week.

GMED Chart August 2018

GMED Chart August 2018

*source Tradingview.com

If you agree there’s further upside ahead for GMED, consider this trade which is a bet that the stock will continue to advance over the next seven weeks, or at least not decline very much.

Buy To Open GMED 21SEP18 50 Puts (GMED180921P50)
Sell To Open GMED 21SEP18 52.5 Puts (GMED180921P52.5) for a credit of $0.89 (selling a vertical)

This price was $0.02 less than the mid-point of the option spread when GMED was trading near $52.50.  Unless the stock rallies quickly from here, you should be able to get close to this amount.

Your commission on this trade will only be $2.50 per spread (the rate charged by thinkorswim for Terry’s Tips’ subscribers).  Each contract would then yield $86.50 and your broker would charge a $250 maintenance fee, making your investment $163.50 ($250 – $86.50).  If GMED closes at any price above $52.50 on September 21, both options would expire worthless, and your return on the spread would be 53% (403% annualized).

Changes to Investor’s Business Daily (IBD) Top 50 This Week:

IBD Underlying Updates August 2, 2018

IBD Underlying Updates August 2, 2018

We have found that the Investor’s Business Daily Top 50 List has been a reliable source of stocks that are likely to move higher in the short run.  Recent additions to the list might be particularly good choices for this strategy, and deletions might be good indicators for exiting a position that you might already have on that stock.

As with all investments, you should only make option trades with money that you can truly afford to lose.

Happy trading,

Terry

Should You Buy the PayPal (PYPL) Earnings Dip?

Monday, July 30th, 2018

This week we are looking at another of the Investor’s Business Daily (IBD) Top 50 List companies.  We use this list in one of our options portfolios to spot outperforming stocks and place option spreads that take advantage of the momentum.

Terry

Should You Buy the PayPal (PYPL) Earnings Dip?

PayPal recently reported earnings and this Zack’s article outlines why the stock price dipped despite beating estimates.  Also, an author on Seeking Alpha outlines why the decline following earnings can be viewed as a merely a speed bump in the broader bullish trend.

PYPL did close earlier on the day after the earnings announcement, however, the bulk of last week’s decline took place on Friday as the markets reacted to US GDP figures and weak earnings in other technology stocks.  This left PayPal stock at a major support confluence to end the week.  The confluence consists of a horizontal level at 85.45 which was major resistance in the first quarter now turned to support, as well as the lower bound of a rising trend channel that originates from a low posted in early May.  Although there was some momentum behind Friday’s decline, recent price action has not altered the bullish technical outlook for PYPL.

PYPL Chart July 2018

PYPL Chart July 2018

If you agree there’s further upside ahead for PYPL, consider this trade which is a bet that the stock will continue to advance over the next five weeks, at least a little bit.

Buy To Open PYPL 31AUG18 83 Puts (PYPL180831P83)
Sell To Open PYPL 31AUG18 85.5 Puts (PYPL180831P85.5) for a credit of $0.98 (selling a vertical)

This price was $0.02 less than the mid-point of the option spread when PYPL was trading near $85.50.  Unless the stock rallies quickly from here, you should be able to get close to this amount.

Your commission on this trade will only be $2.50 per spread (the rate charged by thinkorswim for Terry’s Tips’ subscribers).  Each contract would then yield $95.50 and your broker would charge a $250 maintenance fee, making your investment $154.50 ($250 – $95.50).  If PYPL closes at any price above $85.50 on August 31, both options would expire worthless, and your return on the spread would be 62% (707% annualized).

Changes to Investor’s Business Daily (IBD) Top 50 This Week:

IBD Underlying Updates July 26, 2018

IBD Underlying Updates July 26, 2018

We have found that the Investor’s Business Daily Top 50 List has been a reliable source of stocks that are likely to move higher in the short run.  Recent additions to the list might be particularly good choices for this strategy, and deletions might be good indicators for exiting a position that you might already have on that stock.

As with all investments, you should only make option trades with money that you can truly afford to lose.

Happy trading,

Terry

Can Adobe Systems Continue the Upside Momentum?

Sunday, July 22nd, 2018

This week we are looking at another of the Investor’s Business Daily (IBD) Top 50 List companies.  We use this list in one of our options portfolios to spot outperforming stocks and place option spreads that take advantage of the momentum.

Terry

Can Adobe Systems Continue the Upside Momentum?

ADBE has posted impressive gains in the year thus far, and several analysts believe there is further upside.  Here are two of them – Why Adobe Systems Stock Has Jumped 39% So Far in 2018 and 4 impressive Liquid Stocks for Marvelous Returns.

Adobe Systems stock price has one of the strongest trends among the stocks listed on the IBD Top 50 list.  The stock has been trading within a rising trend channel for the year thus far and dips have been short-lived.  ADBE turned higher from a correction in late June and is seen currently on the verge of breaking to fresh record highs.  Strong downside support is seen ahead of the channel bottom at the 20-day moving average which currently confluences with the psychological $250 level.

ADBE Chart July 2018

ADBE Chart July 2018

If you agree there’s further upside ahead for ADBE, consider this trade which is a bet that the stock will continue to advance over the next six weeks, or at least not decline very much.

Buy To Open ADBE 31AUG18 255 Puts (ADBE180831P255)
Sell To Open ADBE 31AUG18 257.5 Puts (ADBE180831P257.5) for a credit of $1.05 (selling a vertical)

This price was $0.02 less than the mid-point of the option spread when ADBE was trading near $257.  Unless the stock rallies quickly from here, you should be able to get close to this amount.

Your commission on this trade will only be $2.50 per spread (the rate charged by thinkorswim for Terry’s Tips’ subscribers).  Each contract would then yield $102.50 and your broker would charge a $250 maintenance fee, making your investment $147.50 ($250 – $102.50).  If ADBE closes at any price above $257.50 on August 31, both options would expire worthless, and your return on the spread would be 69% (646% annualized).

Changes to Investor’s Business Daily (IBD) Top 50 This Week:

IBD Underlying Updates July 19, 2018

IBD Underlying Updates July 19, 2018

We have found that the Investor’s Business Daily Top 50 List has been a reliable source of stocks that are likely to move higher in the short run.  Recent additions to the list might be particularly good choices for this strategy, and deletions might be good indicators for exiting a position that you might already have on that stock.

As with all investments, you should only make option trades with money that you can truly afford to lose.

Happy trading,

Terry

Palo Alto Networks (PANW) Breaks to Record Highs, What’s Next?

Sunday, July 15th, 2018

This week we are looking at another of the Investor’s Business Daily (IBD) Top 50 List companies.  We use this list in one of our options portfolios to spot outperforming stocks and place option spreads that take advantage of the momentum.

Terry

Palo Alto Networks (PANW) Breaks to Record Highs, What’s Next?

Palo Alto Networks has seen a remarkable rise in its stock price over the last few years and several articles on The Motley Fool suggest there will be further upside.  Here are the latest two – Palo Alto Networks’ Bull Run Probably Won’t Be Ending Anytime Soon and Forget Cryptocurrencies: You’re Better Off Buying These 3 Stocks.

On a daily chart, PANW appears to be consolidating in a range since around the middle of May.  However, a closer look reveals a notable technical break.  Range support near $200 wasn’t just important because of the psychological implications, the level also triggered a sharp turn in 2015 that led to a two-year correction.  Although there have been marginal breaches below the level since the stock price initially climbed above it a few months ago, bears have been unable to drive the stock price below it on a sustained basis.  To the upside, resistance near $216 had capped rallies in June but the recent bullish break of the level suggests the uptrend has resumed.

PANW Chart July 2018

PANW Chart July 2018

*source Tradingview.com

If you agree there’s further upside ahead for PANW, consider this trade which is a bet that the stock will continue to advance over the next six weeks, or at least not decline very much.

Buy To Open PANW 24AUG18 212.5 Puts (PANW180824P212.5)
Sell To Open PANW 24AUG18 215 Puts (PANW180824P215) for a credit of $0.95 (selling a vertical)

This price was $0.02 less than the mid-point of the option spread when PANW was trading near $216.  Unless the stock rallies quickly from here, you should be able to get close to this amount.

Your commission on this trade will only be $2.50 per spread (the rate charged by thinkorswim for Terry’s Tips’ subscribers).  Each contract would then yield $92.50 and your broker would charge a $250 maintenance fee, making your investment $157.50 ($250 – $92.50).  If PANW closes at any price above $215 on August 24, both options would expire worthless, and your return on the spread would be 59% (552% annualized).

Changes to Investor’s Business Daily (IBD) Top 50 This Week:

IBD Underlying Updates July 12, 2018

IBD Underlying Updates July 12, 2018

We have found that the Investor’s Business Daily Top 50 List has been a reliable source of stocks that are likely to move higher in the short run.  Recent additions to the list might be particularly good choices for this strategy, and deletions might be good indicators for exiting a position that you might already have on that stock.

As with all investments, you should only make option trades with money that you can truly afford to lose.

Happy trading,

Terry

Micron Technology (MU) Dips To Support, Is It a Buy?

Sunday, July 8th, 2018

This week we are looking at another of the Investor’s Business Daily (IBD) Top 50 List companies.  We use this list in one of our options portfolios to spot outperforming stocks and place option spreads that take advantage of the momentum.

Terry

Micron Technology (MU) Dips To Support, Is It a Buy?

Micron Technology stock has been impacted by negative headline news as of late but these following two articles make a strong case for why this news is not likely to cause bearish pressure for the stock price moving forward.  Micron’s China Woes May Not Be the Disaster Investors Thought and Micron Technology is rebounding after saying China ban will have minimal impact.

MU has been correcting lower since the end of May but is seen trading near an important technical inflection point, and has already shown signs of buyer’s protecting the area.  The support area is derived from a rising trendline that originates back to a low printed in August last year as well as a horizontal level at $49.62.  The rising trendline last triggered a bounce in May which led to a break to record highs.  The horizontal level carries psychological properties as it falls near $50.  The level acted as major resistance in late 2017 and is now seen as support.

MU Chart July 2018

MU Chart July 2018

*source Tradingview.com

If you agree there’s further upside ahead for MU, consider this trade which is a bet that the stock will continue to advance over the next six weeks, or at least not decline very much.

Buy To Open MU 17AUG18 50 Puts (MU180817P50)
Sell To Open MU 17AUG18 52.5 Puts (MU180817P52.5) for a credit of $0.98 (selling a vertical)

This price was $0.02 less than the mid-point of the option spread when MU was trading near $53.  Unless the stock rallies quickly from here, you should be able to get close to this amount.

Your commission on this trade will only be $2.50 per spread (the rate charged by thinkorswim for Terry’s Tips’ subscribers).  Each contract would then yield $95.50 and your broker would charge a $250 maintenance fee, making your investment $154.50 ($250 – $95.50).  If MU closes at any price above $52.50 on August 17, both options would expire worthless, and your return on the spread would be 62% (580% annualized).

Changes to Investor’s Business Daily (IBD) Top 50 This Week:

IBD Underlying Updates July 5, 2018

IBD Underlying Updates July 5, 2018

We have found that the Investor’s Business Daily Top 50 List has been a reliable source of stocks that are likely to move higher in the short run.  Recent additions to the list might be particularly good choices for this strategy, and deletions might be good indicators for exiting a position that you might already have on that stock.

As with all investments, you should only make option trades with money that you can truly afford to lose.

Happy trading,

Terry

Consider Integrated Device Technology (IDTI) Following the Correction

Sunday, July 1st, 2018

This week we are looking at another of the Investor’s Business Daily (IBD) Top 50 List companies.  We use this list in one of our options portfolios to spot outperforming stocks and place option spreads that take advantage of the momentum.

Terry

Consider Integrated Device Technology (IDTI) Following the Correction

Several analysts are expecting further upside for Integrated Device Technology, here are two of them – What the market is missing about Integrated Device Technology and Two worthy stocks for investors: Hovnanian Enterprises, Integrated Device Technology.

IDTI Chart June 2018

IDTI Chart June 2018

IDTI has been correcting lower over the past two weeks and is now seen trading at some important technical support.  Specifically, the stock is seen bouncing from a horizontal level residing at $31.30.  This level was notably important through several gaps that took place in late 2017 and earlier this year.  As well, the stock price is near the 200-day moving average, an indicator it has not traded below on a sustained basis in about two years.

If you agree there’s further upside ahead for IDTI, consider this trade which is a bet that the stock will continue to advance over the next three weeks, at least a little bit.

Buy To Open IDTI 20JUL18 29 Puts (IDTI180720P29)
Sell To Open IDTI 20JUL18 32 Puts (IDTI180720P32) for a credit of $0.69 (selling a vertical)

This price was $0.02 less than the mid-point of the option spread when IDTI was trading near $32.  Unless the stock rallies quickly from here, you should be able to get close to this amount.

Your commission on this trade will only be $2.50 per spread (the rate charged by thinkorswim for Terry’s Tips’ subscribers).  Each contract would then yield $66.50 and your broker would charge a $300 maintenance fee, making your investment $233.50 ($300 – $66.50).  If IDTI closes at any price above $32 on July 20, both options would expire worthless, and your return on the spread would be 28% (568% annualized).

Changes to Investor’s Business Daily (IBD) Top 50 This Week:

IBD Underlying Updates June 28, 2018

IBD Underlying Updates June 28, 2018

We have found that the Investor’s Business Daily Top 50 List has been a reliable source of stocks that are likely to move higher in the short run.  Recent additions to the list might be particularly good choices for this strategy, and deletions might be good indicators for exiting a position that you might already have on that stock.

As with all investments, you should only make option trades with money that you can truly afford to lose.

Happy trading,

Terry

Consider IPG Photonics (IPGP) Following the Technical Breakout

Monday, May 14th, 2018

This week we are looking at another of the Investor’s Business Daily (IBD) Top 50 List companies.  We use this list in one of our options portfolios to spot outperforming stocks and place option spreads that take advantage of the momentum.

Terry

Consider IPG Photonics (IPGP) Following the Technical Breakout

In addition to being listed as one of the IBD Top 50 companies, Investor’s Business Daily recently wrote about IPGP, outlining the reasons why the growth stock is setting up for another advance.  Also take a look at this publication which discusses why IPGP is trending.

IPGP broke higher late last week from a bullish flag pattern that has been setting up for most of the year thus far.  Technical traders tend to keep a close eye on flag patterns, especially in assets that have had a strong trend which IPGP certainly displayed in 2017.  Technical support is found nearby from a horizontal level at $248 which marks last years high.  Also near the level is additional support from the top of the broken flag pattern.

IPGP Chart May 2018 credit spread

IPGP Chart May 2018 vertical spread

*source Tradingview.com

If you agree there’s further upside ahead for IPGP, consider this trade which is a bet that the stock will continue to advance over the next five weeks, or at least not decline very much.

Buy To Open IPGP 15JUN18 240 Puts (IPGP180615P240)
Sell To Open IPGP 15JUN18 250 Puts (IPGP180615P250) for a credit of $3.58 (selling a vertical)

This price was $0.02 less than the mid-point of the option spread when IPGP was trading near $151.  Unless the stock rallies quickly from here, you should be able to get close to this amount.

Your commission on this trade will only be $2.50 per spread (the rate charged by thinkorswim for Terry’s Tips’ subscribers).  Each contract would then yield $355.50 and your broker would charge a $1000 maintenance fee, making your investment $644.50 ($1000 – 355.50).  If IPGP closes at any price above $250 on June 15, both options would expire worthless, and your return on the spread would be 55% (627% annualized).

Changes to Investor’s Business Daily (IBD) Top 50 This Week:

IBD Underlying Updates May10, 2018

IBD Underlying Updates May10, 2018

We have found that the Investor’s Business Daily Top 50 List has been a reliable source of stocks that are likely to move higher in the short run.  Recent additions to the list might be particularly good choices for this strategy, and deletions might be good indicators for exiting a position that you might already have on that stock.

As with all investments, you should only make option trades with money that you can truly afford to lose.

Happy trading,

Terry

Diagonal Condor Earnings Strategy Update #5 – Mastercard (MA)

Tuesday, April 24th, 2018

When using the Diagonal Condor Earnings Strategy, one of the things we like to find is a stock about to announce earnings where the options have priced in a post-announcement price fluctuation which is greater than the historical average of the post-announcement changes for that company.

Our goal is to create two diagonal spreads at a credit (or slight debit) which allow for a profit to be made if the post-announcement fluctuation is within the historical average amount.  In the past few weeks, we have placed spreads that met these criteria on several companies, including Carmax (KMX), TD Ameritrade (AMTD), and Red Hat (RHT), and these plays were all profitable, with returns from 30% to over 70% including commissions in a single week.

This week, we are looking forward to taking a position in Mastercard (MA) which announces earnings before the market opens on May 2.  The 4May18 options have priced a 3.8% post-announcement price change while the average change for the last eight quarters has been only 1.1% (about $2 when the stock is trading about $175).

Here are the trades we made this week using the Diagonal Condor Earnings Strategy that is outlined here in case you missed it earlier. Here are the spreads we will place just prior to May 2 (prices as they exist now):

Buy To Open MA 1Jun18 170 puts (MA180601P170)
Sell To Open MA 4May18 175 puts (MA180504P175) for a credit of $.25 (buying a diagonal)

Buy To Open MA 1Jun18 182.5 calls (MA180601C182.5)
Sell To Open MA 4May18 177.5 calls (MA180504C177.5) for a credit of $.17 (buying a diagonal)

After paying a commission of $2.50 per spread at the commission rate charged to Terry’s Tips subscribers at thinkorswim, each pair of spreads will incur a maintenance requirement of $500 less the $42 plus the $5 commission, making it an investment of $463 (the maximum theoretical loss).  One of the spreads is guaranteed to make a gain no matter what the stock might do after the announcement.

Here is the risk profile graph for the above spreads, assuming that implied volatility (IV) of the 1Jun18 option series will fall by 3, from 28 to 25 after the announcement.  This compares to the current IV of the 4May18 series which carries an IV of 35.

MA Risk Profile Graph April 2018

MA Risk Profile Graph April 2018

The break-even range for these positions goes from about $170 to $183.  If the price ends up at any price within this range, there should be a profit.  Historically, the stock has fluctuated by an average of about $2, which would place it between $173 and $177.

If the historical fluctuation continues, these positions could deliver 60% or more on investment for a single week of waiting it out.

If the stock fluctuates more than we expect (and finishes outside of the break-even range), we would roll over the expiring options before they expire on May 4 and sell new weekly out-of-the-money options for the 11May18 series, and continue doing so until we took in sufficient new premium to make the entire experience a profitable one.  We would have five weekly opportunities to accomplish this.  Of course, nothing is guaranteed, but weekly fluctuations tend to be much more moderate once the earnings week has passed, and that is the kind of market where this kind of diagonal or calendar spreads do their best.

If the stock fluctuates more than $2.50 from the $166.36 price when we placed the spreads, you might want to adjust the strike prices by $2.50 in the same direction.

Final note: MA has been a good underlying for Terry’s Tips.  In 2017, one of our actual portfolios traded MA options, and the portfolio gained 152% for the year. You can get a full (and free) report on how this worked out by requesting it below.

Facebook (FB) Play – Diagonal Condor Earnings Strategy

Wednesday, April 18th, 2018

Here is the link to the Seeking Alpha article on FB: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4164510-expect-facebook-earnings-announcement

This article explains our thinking behind the trades we suggested for the upcoming Facebook’s earnings announcement taking place next week.  See full recommendation below. 

Facebook (FB) announces earnings after the close on April 24, 2018.  I have submitted an article to Seeking Alpha outlining the reasons I believe that the stock will trade higher (or at least, not lower) after the announcement compared to its current level. If they accept my article for publication, I will send you the link.  If they don’t accept it in a timely basis, I will send it along to you.

Here are the trades we made this week in accordance with this positive post-announcement outlook using the Diagonal Condor Earnings Strategy that is outlined here in case you missed it earlier.  Note that one of the diagonals is being placed at a slight debit, a small deviation from the strategy.  This should not be a problem because the 1Jun18 options are considerably higher than this debit, and will surely hold up enough so that one of the two spreads is guaranteed to be a serious gainer.

BTO 1 FB 1Jun18 160 put (FB180601P160)
STO 1 FB 27Apr18 165 put (FB180427P165) for a credit of $.25 (buying a diagonal)

BTO 1 FB 1Jun18 177.5 call (FB180601C177.5)
STO 1 FB 27Apr18 172.5 call (FB180427C172.5) for a debit of $.28 (buying a diagonal)

IV of the 27Apr18 options is 47 compared to 31 for the 1Jun18 series (this huge difference is what makes this play so potentially profitable).

Here is the risk profile graph for these spreads assuming that IV for the 1Jun18 series will fall from 31 to 26 after the announcement.  I think there is a fair chance that it will not fall that far, and the results could be even better than what is indicated below:

Facebook Risk Profile Graph April 2018

Facebook Risk Profile Graph April 2018

These spreads require a maintenance requirement of just over $500 per pair of spreads.  One of them is guaranteed to make a gain no matter what the stock price does.

For the past 8 quarters, FB’s post-announcement fluctuation has averaged 3%.  This graph shows that a profit should result if the stock fluctuates less than $5 (about 3%) in either direction.  The potential gains are over 60% for a one-week play if the stock fluctuates less than $5 (and ends up at any price between $165 and $173).

If the stock fluctuates more than $2.50 from the $166.36 price when we placed the spreads, you might want to adjust the strike prices by $2.50 in the same direction.

As with all investments, you should only make option trades with money that you can truly afford to lose.

Happy trading,

Terry

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