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Making a Long-Term Options Bet on Oil

Sunday, January 17th, 2016

 

The market is closed for the Marin Luther King holiday today, and maybe you have a little time to see how we plan to make some exceptional returns by playing what might happen with oil prices.

I would like to share with you details on a new portfolio we have set up at Terry’s Tips. It is a long-term bet that the price of oil will eventually recover from its recent 12-year lows, but maybe it will get even worse in the short run before an eventual recovery takes place. In the wonderful world of stock options, you can bet on both possibilities at once, and possibly make double-digit monthly gains while you wait for the future to unfold.

I hope you enjoy my thinking about an option strategy based on the future of oil prices. Maybe you might like to emulate these positions in your own account or become a Terry’s Tips Insider and watch them evolve over time.

Terry

Making a Long-Term Options Bet on Oil

Nobel Laureate Yale University professor Robert Shiller was interviewed by Alex Rosenberg of CNBC on July 6, 2015. He delivered his oft-repeated message that he believed that both stocks and bonds were overvalued and likely to fall. The last couple of weeks in the market makes his forecast seem pretty accurate. And then he continued on to say that he thought that oil would be a good investment, and that he was putting some of his own money on a bet that oil prices would move higher in the long run.
“One should have a wide variety of assets in one’s portfolio. And oil, by the way, is a particularly important asset to have in one’s portfolio, because we need it, and the economy thrives on it,” he said.

“So yeah, prices have come down a lot, partly because of the invention of fracking,” which has increased supply levels. “Will that reverse and go up smartly? I don’t know. But I’m just thinking—historically, commodities have been a good part of a portfolio, and they’re not pricey, so why not?”

So how has his advice turned out? On the day that Shiller suggested buying oil, USO (the most popular ETP that tracks the price of oil) was trading at $19. It is almost exactly half of that amount today.

We might wonder how Mr. Shiller feels about losing half his money in six months. If he hasn’t sold it yet, he really hasn’t lost it of course, but his account value is surely a whole lot less than it was.

I like the idea of getting into oil at a price which is half of what this apparently brilliant man bought it for, and also would like to benefit if the steady drop in the price of oil might continue a bit longer in the short run. Iran is scheduled to start dumping lots of its oil on the world market as the sanctions are removed, and OPEC has shown no inclination to reduce production (in its effort to discourage American frackers who have a higher cost of production). If the supply of oil continues to grow at a faster rate than demand, lower prices will probably continue to be the dominant trend, at least until a major war or terrorist action breaks out, or OPEC changes its tune and cuts back on production. If oil costs more to produce than it can be sold for (as OPEC asserts), then eventually supply must shrink to such a point that oil prices will improve.

Intuition would tell us that lower gas prices in the U.S. should help our economy (except for oil producers). Instead of paying $4 per gallon of gas, American drivers can pay about half that amount and have lots of money left over to buy other things. One would think that this would stimulate the economy and be good for the stock market. Apparently, it has not worked out that way. The recent drop in the stock market was supposedly due to fears of weakness in international economies. Many of them are dependent on oil revenues, and they are in bad shape with oil so cheap. Sometimes what seems intuitively true doesn’t work out in the real world.

It makes sense to me that at some point, supply and demand must even out, and a price achieved that is at least as high as the average cost of getting oil out of the ground. On a 60 Minutes episode on the subject of oil drilling in Saudi Arabia, the minister cited $60 per barrel as that number. This is more than double the current selling price of oil. It seems logical to believe that sometime in the future, this number will once again be reached. If that is the case, USO should be double what it is now.

The portfolio we created at Terry’s Tips (aptly called Black Gold) involves buying call LEAPS on USO which expire in 2018 so we have two years to wait for a rebound in oil.

Here are the two spreads we placed in this portfolio which was set up with $3500 (the actual cost of these spreads, including commissions, was $3186)

Buy To Open 7 USO Jan-18 8 calls (USO180119C8)
Sell To Open 7 USO Mar-16 10.5 calls (USO160318C10.5) for a debit of $2.32 (buying a diagonal)

Buy To Open 10 USO Jan-18 8 calls (USO180119C8)
Sell To Open 10 USO Feb-16 8 calls (USO160229C8) for a debit of $1.52 (buying a calendar)

The first spread (the diagonal) is set up to provide upside protection. The intrinsic value of this spread is $2.50 (the difference between the strike prices of the long and short sides). No matter how high the stock moves, this spread can never trade for less than $2.50. Actually, since there are 22 more months of life to the long Jan-18 calls, they will always have an additional time premium value that will keep the spread value well over $2.50. Since we paid only $2.32 for the spread, we can never lose money on it if the stock were to move higher.

The second spread, the calendar which is slightly in the money (at the 8 strike while the stock is trading about $8.75) is designed to provide downside protection in case the price of oil moves lower. Ideally, we would like the stock to fall about $.75 to end up exactly at $8 in 5 weeks when the Feb-16 calls expire. If that happens, those calls we sold will expire worthless and we will be in a position to sell new calls that expire a month later at the same strike. We should be able to collect about $500 from that sale, well over 10% of the initial cost of all the positions). No matter where the stock ends up, we will sell new calls at the February expiration, most likely in the March-16 series at the 8 strike price. If that is near the money, we should be able to collect about $.50 for each option, and it won’t take too many monthly sales at that level to completely cover our initial $1.52 cost of the spread. We will have 21 opportunities to sell new monthly premium to cover the original cost.

The long side of the calendar spread (the Jan-18 calls) will always have a value which is greater than the short-term calls that we sell at the 8 strike price. It is not always certain that they will be worth $1.32 more than the short-term calls like they are at the beginning, however. If the stock stays within a few dollars of $8, the long side should be worth at least $1.32 higher than the short side. If the stock makes a very large move in either direction, the long side might not be worth $1.32 more than the short side. Hopefully, we will collect new premium each month early on so that the original $1.32 cost has been returned to us and we are then playing with the house’s money for all the remaining months.

When the Mar-16 10.5 calls expire, we will sell new calls with about a month or two of life, choosing strike prices that are appropriate at the time, being careful not to choose a strike which is too low to insure we have at least some spreads which will not lose money no matter how high the stock price moves over the next two years. Presumably, we will be selling short term (one or two month) calls at increasingly higher strike prices as the stock moves higher in the long run, collecting new premium and watching the value of our long Jan-18 8 calls increase substantially in value as they become more and more in the money.

This is the risk profile graph which shows what we should make or lose at various possible stock prices in 5 weeks when the Feb-16 calls expire:

USO Risk Profile Graph Jan 2016
USO Risk Profile Graph Jan 2016

The stock can fall about 9% in 5 weeks before a loss occurs on the downside, or it can go up by any reasonable amount and a double-digit gain should be made on the original cost of the spreads. Each month, we plan to sell enough short-term premium to give us a 10% gain as long as the stock does not fluctuate outside a range of about 10% in either direction. Most months, this should be possible.

This explanation may be a little confusing to anyone who is not familiar with stock options. It would all make total sense if you became a Terry’s Tips Insider and read our 14-day tutorial. It takes a little effort, but it could change your investment returns for the rest of your life.

Half-Price Offer Ends at Midnight Tonight

Monday, January 11th, 2016

All good things must end, they say.  Tonight at midnight, the lowest price offer we have ever made in the history of our company, does just that.  It ends.  Tomorrow we will return to the prices that thousands of smart investors have paid over the past 14 years.

If you ever considered becoming a Terry’s Tips Insider, this would be the absolutely best time to do it.

To get our entire package for only $39.95, you must order by midnight tonight – only $39.95 for our entire package -here using Special Code 2016 (or 2016P for Premium Service – $79.95).

Terry 

Half-Price Offer Ends at Midnight Tonight

If all good things must end, it is equally true that all bad things must end as well.  Hopefully, the dreadful start for the market in 2016 will end as well.  Volatility has skyrocketed as the market has tumbled.  The so-called fear Index (VIX – the measure of option prices on the S&P 500 tracking stock, SPY) closed above 27 on Friday. This compares to an average range of about 12 – 14 over the last few years.

When VIX reaches 27, it means that option prices are about twice as high as they are on average.  For Terry’s Tips’ subscribers, that is a big deal.  Since our strategy consists of selling those short-term options, this could be one of the most profitable opportunities that come along all year.

The historical fluctuation of VIX is that it makes sudden forays above 20 when market uncertainty flares up (usually due to an unexpected event like a war breaking out or a 9/11 type terrorist attack, of some economic calamity or fear of slower growth).  This time around, it seems to be fears that China’s unusually high growth rate might be slowing.  Instead of growing at 8% a year, their economy may only grow at 4% or 5%, still an enviable number by world-wide standards.

VIX also has a tendency to fall quickly after the market takes a second look at what caused the fears in the first place.  Over the last three years, VIX has shot up over 20 on 10 separate occasions, and in 9 of those occasions, it fell back below 20 within 11 days.  This pattern may continue as we reach the second week of 2016.  As I write this, the futures are up enough for the Dow to enjoy a triple-digit gain today.

So it seems the both good things and bad things must eventually end.  The early-2016 market correction and our best offer ever are two of those things that could end just today.  We are absolutely certain of our offer ending – the market recovery might take a bit longer.

Here’s the Special Offer – If you make this investment in yourself by midnight tonight, January 11, 2016, this is what happens:

For a one-time fee of only $39.95, you receive the White Paper (a $79.95 value by itself), which explains my favorite option strategies in detail, and shows you exactly how to carry them out on your own.

1) Two free months of the Terry’s Tips Stock Options Tutorial Program, (a $49.90 value).  This consists of 14 individual electronic tutorials delivered one each day for two weeks, and weekly Saturday Reports which provide timely Market Reports, discussion of option strategies, updates and commentaries on 11 different actual option portfolios, and much more.

2) Emailed Trade Alerts.  I will email you with any trades I make at the end of each trading day, so you can mirror them if you wish (or with our Premium Service, you will receive real-time Trade Alerts as they are made for even faster order placement or Auto-Trading with a broker).  These Trade Alerts cover all 11 portfolios we conduct.

3) If you choose to continue after two free months of the Options Tutorial Program, do nothing, and you’ll be billed at our discounted rate of $19.95 per month (rather than the regular $24.95 rate).

4) Access to the Insider’s Section of Terry’s Tips, where you will find many valuable articles about option trading, and several months of recent Saturday Reports and Trade Alerts.

With this one-time offer, you will receive all of these benefits for only $39.95, less than the price of the White Paper alone. I have never made an offer better than this in the fourteen years I have published Terry’s Tips.  But you must order by midnight on January 11, 2016. Click here, choose “White Paper with Insider Membership”, and enter Special Code 2016 (or 2016P for Premium Service – $79.95).

Investing in yourself is the most responsible New Year’s Resolution you could make for 2016.  I feel confident that this offer could be the best investment you ever make in yourself.  And your family will love you for investing in yourself, and them as well.

Happy New Year!  I hope 2016 is your most prosperous ever.  I look forward to helping you get 2016 started right by sharing this valuable investment information with you.

Terry

If you have any questions about this offer or Terry’s Tips, please call Seth Allen, our Senior Vice President at 800-803-4595 or send an email to Seth@TerrysTips.com.  Or make this investment in yourself at the lowest price ever offered in our 14 years of publication – only $39.95 for our entire package -here using Special Code 2016 (or 2016P for Premium Service – $79.95).

Invest in Yourself in 2016 (at the Lowest Rate Ever)

Wednesday, December 30th, 2015

To celebrate the coming of the New Year I am making the best offer to come on board that I have ever offered.  It is time limited.  Don’t miss out.

Invest in Yourself in 2016 (at the Lowest Rate Ever)

The presents are unwrapped.  The New Year is upon us.  Start it out right by doing something really good for yourself, and your loved ones.

The beginning of the year is a traditional time for resolutions and goal-setting.  It is a perfect time to do some serious thinking about your financial future.

I believe that the best investment you can ever make is to invest in yourself, no matter what your financial situation might be.  Learning a stock option investment strategy is a low-cost way to do just that.

As our New Year’s gift to you, we are offering our service at the lowest price in the history of our company.   If you ever considered becoming a Terry’s Tips Insider, this would be the absolutely best time to do it.  Read on…

Don’t you owe it to yourself to learn a system that carries a very low risk and could gain over 100% in one year as our calendar spreads on Nike, Costco and Starbucks have done in 2015?

So what’s the investment?  I’m suggesting that you spend a small amount to get a copy of my 70-page (electronic) White Paper, and devote some serious early-2016 hours studying the material.

Here’s the Special Offer – If you make this investment in yourself by midnight, January 11, 2016, this is what happens:

For a one-time fee of only $39.95, you receive the White Paper (which normally costs $79.95 by itself), which explains my favorite option strategies in detail, and shows you exactly how to carry them out on your own.

1) Two free months of the Terry’s Tips Stock Options Tutorial Program, (a $49.90 value).  This consists of 14 individual electronic tutorials delivered one each day for two weeks, and weekly Saturday Reports which provide timely Market Reports, discussion of option strategies, updates and commentaries on 11 different actual option portfolios, and much more.

2) Emailed Trade Alerts.  I will email you with any trades I make at the end of each trading day, so you can mirror them if you wish (or with our Premium Service, you will receive real-time Trade Alerts as they are made for even faster order placement or Auto-Trading with a broker).  These Trade Alerts cover all 11 portfolios we conduct.

3) If you choose to continue after two free months of the Options Tutorial Program, do nothing, and you’ll be billed at our discounted rate of $19.95 per month (rather than the regular $24.95 rate).

4) Access to the Insider’s Section of Terry’s Tips, where you will find many valuable articles about option trading, and several months of recent Saturday Reports and Trade Alerts.

With this one-time offer, you will receive all of these benefits for only $39.95, less than the price of the White Paper alone. I have never made an offer better than this in the fourteen years I have published Terry’s Tips.  But you must order by midnight on January 11, 2016. Click here, choose “White Paper with Insider Membership”, and enter Special Code 2016 (or 2016P for Premium Service – $79.95).

Investing in yourself is the most responsible New Year’s Resolution you could make for 2016.  I feel confident that this offer could be the best investment you ever make in yourself.  And your family will love you for investing in yourself, and them as well.

Happy New Year!  I hope 2016 is your most prosperous ever.  I look forward to helping you get 2016 started right by sharing this valuable investment information with you.

Terry

If you have any questions about this offer or Terry’s Tips, please call Seth Allen, our Senior Vice President at 800-803-4595.  Or make this investment in yourself at the lowest price ever offered in our 14 years of publication – only $39.95 for our entire package -here using Special Code 2016 (or 2016P for Premium Service – $79.95).

Portfolios Gain an Average of 10% for the Month

Monday, December 7th, 2015

This week we are reporting the results for the actual portfolios we carry out at Terry’s Tips. Many of our subscribers mirror our trades in their own accounts or have thinkorswim execute trades automatically for them through their free Auto-Trade program. In addition, we are showing the actual positions we currently hold in one of these portfolios so you can get a better idea of how we carry out the 10K Strategy.

Enjoy the full report.

Terry

Portfolios Gain an Average of 10% for the Month

The market (SPY) edged up 0.8% in November. In spite of mid-month relatively high volatility, things ended up just about where they started. The 6 actual portfolios carried out at Terry’s Tips outperformed the market by a factor of 12, gaining an average of 10.0%.

This 10% was less than October’s 14.2% average gain for the portfolios. The big reason why November lagged behind October was that we had one big losing portfolio this month (more on that later). Here are the results for each portfolio:

First Saturday Report Chart November 2015

First Saturday Report Chart November 2015
 * After doubling in value, portfolio had 2-for-1 split in October 2015

** After doubling in value, portfolio had 2-for-1 split in September 2015.
***Portfolio started with $4000 and $5600 withdrawn in December 2014.

S&P 500 Price Change for November = +0.8%
Average Portfolio Company Price Change for November = +1.8%
Average Portfolio Value Change for November = +10.0%

Further Comments: We have now recorded a 24.2% gain for the first two months of our First Saturday Reports. This is surely a remarkable result, 4 times better than the 5.4% that the market gained over those two months. Our results work out to an annualized rate of 145%, a level that we are surely not going to be able to maintain forever. But is has been fun so far.

All of the underlying stock prices did not gain in November. SBUX fell 1.3%, yet the Java Jive portfolio picked up 13.6%, proving once again that a lower stock price can still yield good gains, just as long as the drop is not too great.

Only one of our underlying stocks had an earnings announcement this month. Facebook (FB) announced and the stock edged higher, causing our Foxy Facebook to be our greatest gainer (up 22.1%) for November. We will have two earnings announcements in December – COST on the 8th and NKE which reports on the 20th or 21st. NKE also will have a 2-for-1 stock split on December 23rd. History shows that stocks which have a split tend to move higher after the split is announced, but then they move lower after the split has taken place. We will keep that in mind when we establish option positions later this month.

New Portfolio JNJ Jamboree Starts off With a Nice Gain: In its first month of operation, our newest portfolio gained 14.3% while the stock closely mirrored the market’s gain, picking up 0.9% compared to the market’s 0.8% gain. JNJ pays a healthy dividend which reduces volatility a bit, but the portfolio’s early performance demonstrates that the 10K Strategy can make good gains even when the options carry a low Implied Volatility (IV).

What Happened in Vista Valley, our big Loser This Month? NKE experienced extreme volatility, first dropping when Dick’s had a dismal earnings announcement, and then recovering when reports indicated that NKE was doing much better than most of the retailers. In the second week of November, NKE crashed $9.92 (7.5%). This is a truly unusual drop, and immediately forced us to make a decision. Do we lower the strike prices of our options to protect ourselves against a further drop, or do we hang on and wait for a recovery?

We were a little concerned by some analyst reports which argued that while NKE was a great company, its current valuation was extremely high (and probably unsustainable). So we lowered the strike prices from the 130–135 range to the 120-125 range. This ended up being a big mistake, because in the subsequent week, the stock rose $10.79, totally reversing the week-earlier drop. This forced us to sell off the lower-strike spreads and start over again with the higher strikes we had at the beginning of the month. If we had done nothing, the portfolio would have made a large gain for the month. Since we have selected underlyings that we believe are headed higher, in the future we should be slow to adjust to the downside unless there is strong evidence to refute our initial positive take on the company. This experience is another reminder that high volatility is the Darth Vader of the 10K Strategy world.

Here are the actual positions we held in one of the 6 Terry’s Tips portfolios. This portfolio uses the S&P 500 tracking stock (SPY) as the underlying. We have been running this portfolio for only two months. These positions are typical of how we carry out the 10K Strategy for all the portfolios.
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
Summary of Spy 10K Classic Portfolio. This $5000 portfolio was set up on October 6, 2015. It uses the 10K Strategy with short calls in several weekly series, some of which expire each week and is counted as one of our stock-based portfolios (even though it is not technically a stock, but an ETP).

First Saturday Report November 2015 10K Spy Positions

First Saturday Report November 2015 10K Spy Positions
 Results for the week: With SPY up $1.69 (0.8%) for the 5-week month, the portfolio gained $491 or 8.6%. This is about what we should expect when the market is ultimately flat, but with high volatility inside the month. We dodged a bullet by refraining from adjusting last week when the stock tanked on Thursday because it recovered that entire loss on Friday.

Our positions right now are a little unusual for us because we only have short calls in the next two weekly option series. Usually, we have 3 or 4 short series in place. The reason we ended up where we are right now is that when we buy back expiring calls each Friday, if the market that week has been flat or down, we sell next-week at-the-money calls. If the market has moved higher, we go to further-out series and sell at strikes which are higher than the stock price. Most weeks in November were flat or down, so we did not move out to further-out option series.

Looking forward to next week, the risk profile graph shows that our break-even range extends from about $2 on the downside to $3 on the upside. An absolutely flat market should result in a much greater weekly gain than we experienced last month because we have an unusually high number of near-the-money calls expiring next week.

First Saturday Report November 2015 10K Spy Risk Profile
First Saturday Report November 2015 10K Spy Risk Profile

As we approach the regular monthly option series for December (they expire on the third Friday, the 18th), we need to remember that a dividend is payable to holders of SPY on December 17. If we have short in-the-money calls on that date, we risk having them exercised and leaving us with the obligation to pay that dividend. For that reason, we will roll out of any in-the-money short calls a day earlier than usual to avoid this possibility.

How to Make Extraordinary Returns with Semi-Long Option Plays

Friday, November 27th, 2015

One of my favorite stock option plays is to make a bet that sometime in the future, a particular stock will be no lower than it is today. If you are right, you can make 50% – 100% without doing anything other than making a single option trade and waiting out the time period. Ten weeks ago, I made two specific recommendations (see my September 8, 2015 blog) for making this kind of bet, one which would make 62% in 4 months and the other 100% in that same time period. Today I would like to update those suggestions and discuss a little about how you set up the option trade if you know of a company you feel good about.

If you missed them, be sure to check out the short videos which explains why I like calendar spreads, and How to Make Adjustments to Calendar and Diagonal Spreads.

Terry

How to Make Extraordinary Returns with Semi-Long Option Plays

What is a long-term bet in the options world? A month? A week? I spend most of my time selling options that have only a week of remaining life. Sometimes they only have a day of life before they expire (hopefully worthless). So I don’t deal with long-term options, at least most of the time.

Most options plays are short-term plays. People who trade options tend to have short-term time horizons. Maybe they have ADHD and can’t handle long waits to learn whether they made a gain or not. But there are all sorts of different ways you can structure options plays. While most of my activity involves extremely short-term bets, I also have quite a bit of money devoted to longer-term bets which take 4 months to a year before the pay-day comes along.

One of my favorite semi-long (if there is such a word) option plays involves picking a stock which I particularly like for the long run, or one which has been beaten down for some reason which doesn’t seem quite right. When I find such a stock, I place a bet that sometime in the future, it will be at least as high as it is now. If I am right, I can usually make 50% – 100% on the bet, and I know in advance exactly what the maximum possible gain or loss will be, right to the penny.

Ten weeks ago, I liked where the price of SVXY was. This ETP is inversely correlated with option volatility. When volatility moves higher, SVXY falls, and vice versa. At the time, fears of a world-wide slowdown were emerging. Markets fell and volatility soared. VIX, the so-called “fear index” rose from the 12 – 14 range it had maintained for a couple of years to over 20. SVXY tanked to $45, and had edged up to $47 when I recommended placing a bet that in 4 months (on January 15, 2016), SVXY would be $40 or higher.

This trade would make the maximum gain even if SVXY fell by $7 and remained above $40 on that date:

Buy to Open 1 SVXY Jan-16 35 put (SVXY160115P35)
Sell to Open 1 SVXY Jan-16 40 put (SVXY160115P40) for a credit of $1.95 (selling a vertical)

Quoting from my September 8th blog, “When this trade was executed, $192.50 (after a $2.50 commission) went into my account. If on January 15, 2016, SVXY is at any price higher than $40, both of these puts will expire worthless, and for every vertical spread I sold, I won’t have to make a closing trade, and I will make a profit of exactly $192.50.

So how much do I have to put up to place this trade? The broker looks at these positions and calculates that the maximum loss that could occur on them would be $500 ($100 for every dollar of stock price below $40). For that to happen, SVXY would have to close below $35 on January 15th. Since I am quite certain that it is headed higher, not lower, a drop of this magnitude seems highly unlikely to me.

The broker will place a $500 maintenance requirement on my account. This is not a loan where interest is charged, but merely cash I can’t use to buy shares of stock. However, since I have collected $192.50, I can’t lose the entire $500. My maximum loss is the difference between the maintenance requirement and what I collected, or $307.50.

If SVXY closes at any price above $40 on January 15, both puts will expire worthless and the maintenance requirement disappears. I don’t have to do anything except think of how I will spend my profit of $192.50. I will have made 62% on my investment. Where else can you make this kind of return for as little risk as this trade entails?

Of course, as with all investments, you should only risk what you can afford to lose. But I believe the likelihood of losing on this investment is extremely low. The stock is destined to move higher, not lower, as soon as the current turbulent market settles down.

If you wanted to take a little more risk, you might buy the 45 put and sell a 50 put in the Jan-15 series. You would be betting that the stock manages to move a little higher over the next 4 months. You could collect about $260 per spread and your risk would be $240. If SVXY closed any higher than $50 (which history says that it should), your profit would be greater than 100%. I have also placed this spread trade in my personal account (and my charitable trust account as well).”

It is now 10 weeks later. SVXY is trading at $58 ½. I could buy back the first spread for $.45 ($47.50 after commissions). That would give me a $145 profit on my maximum risk of $307.50. That works out to a 47% gain for 10 weeks. That was easy money for me.

The other spread I suggested, raising the strikes of both the long and short sides by $10, could have been sold for $260. You could buy back the spread for $102.50 including commissions, giving you a profit of $157.50 on a maximum risk of $240, or 65%. Or you could just wait it out and enjoy the full 108% gain if SVXY closes no lower than $50 on the third Friday in January. I am hanging on to both my original bets and not selling now unless something better comes along.

In some Terry’s Tips, we make similar investments like this each January, betting that one year later, stocks we like will be at least where they were at the time. The portfolio we set up this year made those kinds of bets on GOOG, AAPL, and SPY. It will make 92% on the maximum amount at risk in 6 weeks if these three stocks are where they are today or any higher when the January 2016 puts expire. In fact, GOOG could fall by $155 and we would still make over 100% on that spread we had sold in January 2015. We could close out all three spreads today and make a gain of 68% on our maximum risk.

These are just some examples of how you can make longer-term bets on your favorite stocks with options, and making extraordinary gains even if the stock doesn’t do much of anything.

 

First Saturday Report with October 2015 Results

Monday, November 2nd, 2015

This week I would like to share with you (for the first time ever) every option position we hold in every stock-based actual portfolio we carry out at Terry’s Tips.  You can access this report here.If you missed it last week, be sure to check out the short videos which explains why I like calendar spreads, and  How to Make Adjustments to Calendar and Diagonal Spreads.

There is a lot of material to cover in the report and videos, but I hope you will be willing to make the effort to learn a little about a non-traditional way to make greater investment returns than just about anything out there.

Terry

First Saturday Report with October 2015 Results

Here is a summary of how well our 5 stock-based portfolios using our 10K Strategy performed last month as well as for their entire lifetime:

First Saturday Report October Results 2015

First Saturday Report October Results 2015

 

While it was a good month for the market, the best in 4 years, our 5 portfolios outperformed the market by 166% in October.

Enjoy the full report here.

Making Adjustments to Calendar and Diagonal Spreads

Thursday, October 29th, 2015

If you missed it last week, be sure to check out the short video which explains why I like calendar spreads.  This week I have followed it up with a second video entitled How to Make Adjustments to Calendar and Diagonal Spreads.

I hope you will enjoy both videos.  I also hope you will sign up for a Terry’s Tips insider subscription and start enjoying exceptional investment returns along with us (through the Auto-Trade program at thinkorswim).

Terry

Making Adjustments to Calendar and Diagonal Spreads

When we set up a portfolio using calendar spreads, we create a risk profile graph using the Analyze Tab on the free thinkorswim trading platform.  The most important part of this graph is the break-even range for the stock price for the day when the shortest option series expires.  If the actual stock price fluctuates dangerously close to either end of the break-even range, action is usually required.

The simple explanation of what adjustments need to be made is that if the stock has risen and is threatening to move beyond the upside limit of the break-even range, we need to replace the short calls with calls at a higher strike price.  If the stock falls so that the lower end of the break-even range is threatened to be breached, we need to replace the short calls with calls at a lower strike.

There are several ways in which you can make these adjustments if the stock has moved uncomfortably higher:

1. Sell the lowest-strike calendar spread and buy a new calendar spread at a higher strike price, again checking with the risk profile graph to see if you are comfortable with the new break-even range that will be created.  The calendar spread you are buying will most likely cost more than the calendar spread you are selling, so a small amount of new capital will be required to make this adjustment.
2. Buy a vertical call spread, buying the lowest-strike short call and selling a higher-strike call in the same options series (weekly or monthly).  This will require a much greater additional investment.
3. Sell a diagonal spread, buying the lowest-strike short call and selling a higher-strike call at a further-out option series.  This will require putting in much less new money than buying a vertical spread.
4. If you have a fixed amount of money to work with, as we do in the Terry’s Tips portfolios, you may have to reduce the number of calendar spreads you own in order to come up with the necessary cash to make the required investment to maintain a satisfactory risk profile graph.

There are similar ways in which you can make these adjustments if the stock has moved uncomfortably lower.  However, the adjustment choices are more complicated because if you try to sell calls at a lower strike price than the long positions you hold, a maintenance requirement comes into play.  Here are the options you might consider when the stock has fallen:

1. Sell the highest-strike calendar spread and buy a new calendar spread at a lower strike price, again checking with the risk profile graph to see if you are comfortable with the new break-even range that will be created.  The calendar spread you are buying will most likely cost more than the calendar spread you are selling, so a small amount of new capital will be required to make this adjustment.
2. Sell a vertical call spread, buying the highest-strike short call and selling a lower-strike call in the same options series (weekly or monthly).  This will require a much greater additional investment.  Since the long call is at a higher strike price than the new lower-strike call you sell, there will be a $100 maintenance requirement per contract per dollar of difference between the strike price of the long and short calls.  This requirement is reduced by the amount of cash you collect from selling the vertical spread.
3. Sell a diagonal spread, buying the highest-strike short call and selling a lower-strike call at a further-out option series.  This will require putting in much less new money than selling a vertical spread.

Why I Like Calendar Spreads

Wednesday, October 21st, 2015

I have created a short video which explains why I like calendar spreads.  It also shows the exact positions we hold in 3 Terry’s Tips actual portfolios so you can get a better idea of how we use calendar spreads.

 

I hope you will enjoy the video, and I welcome your comments.

 

Terry

 

Why I Like Calendar Spreads

 

The basic reason I like calendar spreads (aka time spreads) is that they allow you to make extraordinary gains compared to owning the stock if you are lucky enough to trade in a stock that stays flat or moves moderately higher.

 

I get a real kick out of making serious gains when the stock just sits there and doesn’t do anything.  Calendar spreads almost always do extremely well when nothing much happens in the market.

 

While I call them calendar spreads, if you look at the actual positions that we hold in our portfolios, you will see that the long calls we own are not always at the same strike prices as the short calls we have sold to someone else.  That makes them diagonal spreads rather than calendar spreads, but they operate exactly the same as calendar spreads.

 

With both calendar and diagonal spreads, the long calls you own decay at a slower rate than the short calls that you have sold to someone else, and you benefit from the differences in decay rates.  Both spreads do best when the stock ends up precisely at the strike price of an expiring option.  At that point, the short options expire worthless and new options can be sold at a further-out time series at the maximum time premium of any option in that series.

 

If you have sold short options at a variety of strike prices you can make gains over a wider range of possible stock prices.  We use the analyze tab on the free thinkorswim software to select calendar and diagonal spreads which create a risk profile graph which provides a break-even range that lets us sleep at night and will yield a profit if the stock ends up within that range.  I encourage you to try that software and create your own risk profile for your favorite stock, and create a break-even range which you are comfortable with.

Two 2015 Case Studies of Options Portfolios

Wednesday, October 14th, 2015

Got an extra five minutes of time to change your thinking about investing forever?  I invite you to read the following report and see why.  You could get a clear understanding of how an options strategy can be used to dramatically improve your investment results for any stock you feel good about (good enough to buy shares in that company).   For two companies we picked at the beginning of 2015, we have made over 100% on our money in the first nine months, and you could have done it as well, even if you knew absolutely nothing about options (read on and see how).

 

These case studies were actual portfolios carried out during the first nine months of 2015 in separate brokerage accounts at thinkorswim for Terry’s Tips subscribers (many of whom mirrored these trades in their own accounts or had trades executed automatically in their accounts by the (free) Auto-Trade service at that brokerage firm.  The results include commissions on all the trades.

 

The first nine months of 2015 were not good ones for the market.  The S&P 500 fell 6.7%, from 2059 to 1920. 

 

The two individual stocks covered in this report, Costco (COST) and Starbucks (SBUX) outperformed the overall market during this time period.  COST rose from $141.87 to $144.57, a gain of $2.70, or 1.9%.  SBUX soared from $82.05 to $113.68 (pre 2-for-1 split), or 38.5%.

 

As you will soon see, while the gains in COST and SBUX were most impressive compared to the overall market, they did not do nearly as well as our two actual portfolios which traded options on these underlyings.

 

The strategy used in these portfolios is a lot like buying stock and writing calls against the stock.  However, there is a big difference in the options portfolios.  Instead of buying stock, longer-term call options (and sometimes, LEAPS) are used as collateral against which to sell short-term call options.  The return on investment from writing calls against longer-term options that might cost one-tenth the value of the stock is why the options portfolio comes out well ahead of buying stock and writing calls against those shares. 

 

Extreme leverage can be your friend if the stock holds steady or moves higher.  On the other hand, if the underlying stock falls more than moderately, the options portfolio might lose more than you would lose you had bought stock instead.  So it’s important to select a stock you feel comfortable about.  The stock doesn’t have to move higher for this options strategy to prosper, but it can’t fall a lot and still expect to produce extraordinary gains.

 

Case Study #1 – Costco Options Portfolio

 

Costco (COST) started out 2015 trading at $141.87 while the Terry’s Tips portfolio which uses COST as the underlying was worth $6223.  With this amount invested, you could have purchased 43.8 shares of the stock (we’ll round it off and say you could have bought 44 shares).

 

Here is how the price of COST fluctuated during the first nine months of 2015:

 2015 Stock Price Of COST

2015 Stock Price Of COST

 

 

 

 

 

 

The stock rose steadily early in the year, but fell from a high of about $153  to as low as $135 in the first week of September. At the end of September, it was trading about $3 higher than where it started out the year. Let’s compare the prices for 44 shares of COST with the value of the actual Terry’s Tips portfolio trading COST options during this same time period:

COST Stock vs Portfolio 2015 

COST Stock vs Portfolio 2015

 

 

 

In late January when the stock fell a bit, the portfolio value fell by a greater amount, but when the stock recovered, the portfolio outperformed on the upside as well.  Two other times during the year, the stock took a sudden drop and the portfolio value fell below the equivalent investment in the stock, but when the stock moved higher in July, the portfolio shot by a considerably higher percentage.

 

Over the nine months, an investment in the stock would have gained $1.20 per share from dividends you would have received on 44 shares, or $52.80.  The stock gained $2.70 over these months, so the 44 shares were worth $118.80 more than they were at the beginning, for a net gain of $171.60 including the dividends. This total works out to a 1.2% gain on the stock purchase for the nine months.

 

Over this same period, the actual COST options portfolio (we call it the Rising Tide portfolio) rose from $6223 to $12,900, for a gain of $6667, or 107%.

 

Let’s check the actual positions in this portfolio at the beginning of the year (from our January 3, 2015 Terry’s Tips Saturday Report):

 

  

Rising Tide

     Price:

$141.61

     

 

 

 Option

Strike

Symbol

Price

    Total

Delta

Gamma

 Theta

-3

Jan-15

C

140

COST150117C140

$2.92

($876)

-3

Jan-15

C

143

COST150117C143

$1.23

($368)

-2

Jan-15

C

145

COST150117C145

$0.57

($113)

6

Apr-15

C

135

COST150417C135

$9.25

$5,550

1

Apr-15

C

145

COST150417C145

$3.43

$343

2

Jul-15

C

140

COST150717C140

$7.68

$1,535

 

Cash

$152

218

-37

$26

    Total Account Value

$6,223

3.5%

1

Annualized ROI at today’s net Theta:

152%

 

We owned 7 calls which expired in April and 2 which would extend until July, and we had sold a total of 8 Jan-15 calls, 3 of which were at a strike just below the stock price and 5 which were slightly out of the money.  We had one long uncovered call which we could have sold a short-term call against, but we wanted to maintain a higher net delta.  The option positions were the equivalent of owning 218 shares of stock (the net delta figure).  That explains why the portfolio value gains or loses at almost 5 times the rate of owning 44 shares of stock.

 

Now let’s fast forward to what the portfolio looked like at the close of business on September 25, 2015.  Here are the positions that we held:

 Rising Tide Positions Oct 2015

 Rising Tide Positions Oct 2015

 

You can see many differences between these positions and what we held back in January.  First, the long calls are all the way out to 2016 (Jan-16 and Apr-16).  Second, there are some put positions.  In May, when COST was trading about $144, we sold a bullish credit put spread (buying Oct-15 135 puts and selling Oct-15 140 puts).  If COST is at any price above $140 when those puts expire on October 16th, both puts will expire worthless, and we will have made 51% on the amount we risked when we sold the spread in May. Third, the short calls are in several weekly series rather than in a single (monthly) options series. 

 

About half-way through 2015, we changed the way we trade this portfolio. We are now short weekly options in several different series.  Each week, some calls expire, and we buy them back (usually on Friday) and sell new ones which expire about 4 weeks later.  We select strikes which will balance out the risk profile for the portfolio.  This allows us to tweak the profile each week rather than making wholesale adjustments at the end of the expiration month.  We believe that the superior performance we have enjoyed over the past few months in all of our stock-based portfolios has been due to this new way of trading which was not possible before the advent of weekly options.

 

Every Friday, we create a risk profile graph to help us decide which strike prices to use when we buy back the expiring weekly options and replace them with further-out new short calls.  Here is the graph we created on October 2, 2015 which shows the expected gain or loss in portfolio value when the short options expire on the next Friday, October 9th:

Rising Tide Risk Profile Graph Oct 2015 

Rising Tide Risk Profile Graph Oct 2015

 

This graph shows that if the stock is absolutely flat ($143.21) a week from now, the portfolio will gain $735, about 5% of the portfolio value.  If It moves about $3 higher, the portfolio would gain about double that amount.  A gain should result even if the stock falls by about a dollar during the next week.  It can move higher by about $6 before a loss would occur on the upside.  You can see how most weeks, this collection of long and short calls will result in a gain as long as the stock moves only moderately.  (Actually, in most weeks, we end up with positions that allow for the stock to fall by $2 before a loss would be incurred – this week was unusually bullish for us.)

 

To sum it up, over the 9 months of trading, our portfolio gained $6376.  This works out to be 107% of the starting value of $6223.  Someone who had spent the same amount of money buying shares of COST would have picked up about $172, or 1.2%..  Our portfolio outperformed by more than 30 times what the owners of the stock gained.

 

We believe that this experience establishes beyond all doubt that a properly-executed options strategy can out-perform the outright purchase of the shares many times over.  Of course, it is a lot easier just to buy the stock.  Trading options takes time and attention, but surely, isn’t it worth it when you might do about 30 times better?

 

If you don’t want to bother with all the trading, you could open an account at thinkorswim and sign up for their free Auto-Trade service, and not only enjoy their $1.25 (normally $3.90) commission rate for a single option purchase or sale, but all the trades will be automatically made for you in your account.  By the way, this lower commission rate made available to Terry’s Tips subscribers will apply to all your trades, not just those you make through Auto-Trade.  Many subscribers cover their entire subscription cost by their commission cost savings.

 

We recommend setting up a self-directed IRA account for trading options (especially a Roth IRA if you are eligible for one).  Gains from option trading are short-term capital gains taxed pretty much like ordinary income, and you don’t have to itemize individual trades when you file your tax return for an IRA account.

 

By the way, you may wonder about my options-trading experience.  Way back in 1980, I had a seat on the C.B.O.E. and traded as a market maker on the floor.  Ever since then, for 35 years, I have traded options essentially every day the market has been open.  I graduated from the Harvard Business School and earned a Doctorate in Business Administration from the University of Virginia, but my most valuable credentials came from trading options nearly every day for all those years.  My options trading has enabled me to give away over $2 million to charities in my home state of Vermont.  I was especially proud to build a large swimming pool for the Burlington Boys and Girls Club, and give dozens of college  scholarships to single-parent and first-in-family-to-attend-college Vermonters.

 

Case Study #2 – Starbucks (SBUX) Options Portfolio

 

The first nine months of 2015 were pretty good months for owners of Starbucks (SBUX).  The stock started out the year trading at $81.44 and steadily rose to a high of about $98, and then in early April, they had a 2-for-1 stock split.  By the end of September, the stock traded at $57.99 which works out to a pre-split price of $115.98.  There were 3 dividends of $.16 paid, adding another $.48 to the total, making it a total gain of $35.02, or 43% for the 9 months.

 

Our Java Jive  portfolio started out the year with $6032 invested in SBUX.  At $81.44 per share, you could have purchased 74 shares of stock.  Over the nine months, the portfolio gained $11,768 in value, making 195%.

 

Here is a graphic comparison of how a $6032 investment in the options portfolio compared to the purchase of 74 shares of stock:

 SBUX Stock vs Portfolio 2015

SBUX Stock vs Portfolio 2015

 

 

 

Unfortunately, the actual portfolio did not gain that much because we also had about half the money invested in Keurig Green Mountain (GMCR), a different kind of coffee company.  The GMCR portion of the portfolio lost $8905 over the period as the stock fell from over $130 to the low $50’s.  In August, GMCR was dropped and FB added to the portfolio, and FB about broke even for the next six weeks (we are now trading both SBUX and FB in separate portfolios).  The portfolio started out the year being worth $10,604 and at the end of September, was worth $12.786, up $2182, or 20.5%.  Not a bad gain over a period when the market fell 6.7%, but not quite the 195% it would have made if only SBUX had been traded.

 

We believe that the above two case studies establish beyond all doubt that a properly-executed options strategy can out-perform the outright purchase of the shares many times over.  Of course, it is a lot easier just to buy the stock.  Trading options takes time and attention, but surely, isn’t it worth it when you can make 107% with options rather than 1.2% owning the same stock, (as we did with COST), or 195% with options instead of 43% owning the same stock (as we did with SBUX)?

 

If you don’t want to bother with all the trading, you could open an account at thinkorswim and sign up for their free Auto-Trade service, and not only enjoy their $1.25 commission rate for a single option purchase or sale, but all the trades will be automatically made for you in your account (this same lower Terry’s Tips commission will apply to all your trades, not just those in Auto-Trade).

The Worst “Stock” You Could Have Owned for the Last 6 Years

Monday, September 14th, 2015

Today I would like to tell you all about the worst “stock” you could have owned for the past 6 years.  It has fallen from $6400 to $26 today.  I will also tell you how you can take advantage of an unusual current market condition and make an options trade which should make a profit of 66% in the next 6 months.  That works out to an annualized gain of 132%.  Not bad by any standards.For the next few days, I am also offering you the lowest price ever to become a Terry’s Tips Insider and get a 14-day options tutorial which could forever change your future investment results.  It is a half-price back-to-school offer – our complete package for only $39.95. Click here, enter Special Code BTS (or BTSP for Premium Service – $79.95).

This could be the best investment decision you ever make – an investment in yourself.

Happy trading.

Terry

The Worst “Stock” You Could Have Owned for the Last 6 Years

I have put the word “stock” in quotations because it really isn’t a stock in the normal sense of the word.  Rather, it is an Exchange Traded Product (ETP) created by Barclay’s which involves buying and selling futures on VIX (the so-called “Fear Index” which measures option volatility on the S&P 500 tracking stock, SPY).  It is a derivative of a derivative of a derivative which almost no one fully understands, apparently even the Nobel Prize winners who carried out Long-Term Capital a few years back.

Even though it is pure gobbledygook for most of us, this ETP trades just like a stock.  You can buy it and hope it goes up or sell it short and hope it goes down.  Best of all, for options nuts like me, you can trade options on it.

Let’s check out the 6-year record for this ETP (that time period is its entire life):

VXX Historical Chart 2015

VXX Historical Chart 2015

It is a little difficult to see what this ETP was trading at when it opened for business on January 30, 2009, but its split-adjusted price seems to be over $6000. (Actually, it’s $6400, exactly what you get by starting at $100 and engineering 3 1-for-4 reverse splits).  Friday, it closed at $26.04.  That has to be the dog of all dog instruments that you could possible buy over that time period (if you know of a worse one, please let me know).

This ETP started trading on 1/30/09 at $100.  Less than 2 years later, on 11/19/10, it had fallen to about $12.50, so Barclays engineered a reverse 1-for-4 split which pushed the price back up to about $50.  It then steadily fell in value for another 2 years until it got to about $9 on 10/15/12 and Barclays did the same thing again, temporarily pushing the stock back up to $36.  That lasted only 13 months when they had to do it again on 11/18/13 – this time, the stock had fallen to $12.50 once again, and after the reverse split, was trading about $50.  Since then, it has done relatively better, only falling in about half over almost a two-year span.

Obviously, this “stock” would have been a great thing to sell short just about any time over the 6-year period (if you were willing to hang on for the long run).  There are some problems with selling it short, however.  Many brokers can’t find stock to borrow to cover it, so they can’t take the order.  And if they do, they charge you some healthy interest for borrowing the stock (I don’t quite understand how they can charge you interest because you have the cash in your account, but they do anyway – I guess it’s a rental fee for borrowing the stock, not truly an interest charge).

Buying puts on it might have been a good idea in many of the months, but put prices are quite expensive because the market expects the “stock” to go down, and it will have to fall quite a way just to cover the cost of the put.  I typically don’t like to buy puts or calls all by themselves (about 80% of options people buy are said to expire worthless).  If you straight-out buy puts or calls, every day the underlying stock or ETP stays flat, you lose money. That doesn’t sound like a great deal to me.  I do like to buy and sell both puts and calls as part of a spread, however.  That is another story altogether.

So what else should you know about this ETP? First, it is called VXX.  You can find a host of articles written about it (check out Seeking Alpha) which say it is the best thing to buy (for the short term) if you want protection against a market crash.  While that might be true, are you really smart enough to find a spot on the 6-year chart when you could have bought it and then figured out the perfect time to sell as well?  The great majority of times you would have made your purchase, you would have surely regretted it (unless you were extremely lucky in picking the right day both to buy and sell).

One of the rare times when it would have been a good idea to buy VXX was on August 10, 2015, just over a month ago.  It closed at its all-time low on that day, $15.54.  If you were smart enough to sell it on September 1st when it closed at $30.76, you could have almost doubled your money.  But you have already missed out if you didn’t pull the trigger on that exact day. It has now fallen over 15% in the last two weeks, continuing its long-term trend.

While we can’t get into the precise specifics of how VXX is valued in the market, we can explain roughly how it is constructed.  Each day, Barclays buys one-month-out futures on VIX in hopes that the market fears will grow and VIX will move higher.  Every day, Barclays sells VIX futures it bought a month ago at the current spot price of VIX.  If VIX had moved higher than the month-ago futures price, a profit is made.

The reason why VXX is destined to move lower over time is that over 90% of the time, the price of VIX futures is higher than the spot price of VIX.  It is a condition called contango.  The average level of contango for VIX is about 5%.  That percentage is how much higher the one-month futures are than the current value of VIX, and is a rough approximation of how much VXX should fall each month.

However, every once in a while, the market gets very worried, and contango disappears.  The last month has been one of those times.  People seem to be concerned that China and the rest of the world is coming on hard times, and our stock markets will be rocked because the Fed is about to raise interest rates.  The stock market has taken a big tumble and market volatility has soared.  This has caused the current value of VIX to become about 23.8 while the one-month futures of VIX are 22.9.  When the futures are less than the spot price of VIX, it is a condition called back-wardation.  It only occurs about 10% of the time.  Right now, backwardation is in effect, (-3.59%), and it has been for about 3 weeks.  This is an exceptionally long time for backwardation to continue to exist.

At some point, investors will come to the realization that the financial world is not about to implode, and that things will pretty much chug along as they have in the past.  When that happens, market volatility will fall back to historical levels.  For most of the past two or three years, VIX has traded in the 12 – 14 range, about half of where it is right now.  When fears subside, as they inevitably will, VIX will fall, the futures will be greater than the current price of VIX, and contango will return.  Even more significant, when VIX falls to 12 or 14 and Barclays is selling (for VXX) at that price, VXX will lose out big-time because a month ago, it bought futures at 22.9.  So VXX will inevitably continue its downward trend.

So how can you make money on VXX with options?  To my way of thinking, today’s situation is a great buying opportunity.  I think it is highly likely that volatility (VIX) will not remain at today’s high level much longer.  When it falls, VXX will tumble, contango will return, and VXX will face new headwinds going forward once again.

Here is a trade I recommended to Terry’s Tips Insiders last Friday:

“If you believe (as I do) that the overwhelming odds are that VXX will be much lower in 6 months than it is now, you might consider buying a Mar-16 26 call (at the money – VXX closed at $26.04 yesteday) and sell a Mar-16 21 call.  You could collect about $2 for this credit spread.  In 6 months, if VXX is at any price below $21, both calls would expire worthless and you would enjoy a gain of 66% on your $3 at risk.  It seems like a pretty good bet to me.”

This spread is called selling a bearish call credit vertical spread.  For each spread you sell, $200 gets put in your account.  Your broker will charge you a maintenance requirement of $500 to protect against your maximum loss if VXX closes above $26 on March 18, 2016.  Since you collect $200 at the beginning, your actual maximum loss is $300 (this is also your net investment in this spread).  There is no interest charged on a maintenance requirement; rather, it is just money in your account that you can’t use to buy other stocks or options.

This may all seem a little confusing if you aren’t up to speed on options trading.  Don’t feel like the Lone Ranger – the great majority of investors know little or nothing about options.  You can fix that by going back to school and taking the 14-day options tutorial that comes with buying the full Terry’s Tips’ package at the lowest price ever – only $39.95 if you buy before Friday, September 23, 2015.

Lowest Subscription Price Ever:  As a back-to-school special, we are offering the lowest subscription price than we have ever offered – our full package, including all the free reports, my White Paper, which explains my favorite option strategies in detail, and shows you exactly how to carry them out on your own, a 14-day options tutorial program which will give you a solid background on option trading, and two months of our weekly newsletter full of tradable option ideas.  All this for a one-time fee of $39.95, less than half the cost of the White Paper alone ($79.95).

For this lowest-price-ever $39.95 offer, click here, enter Special Code BTS (or BTSP for Premium Service – $79.95).

Making 36%

Making 36% — A Duffer's Guide to Breaking Par in the Market Every Year in Good Years and Bad

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Learn why Dr. Allen believes that the 10K Strategy is less risky than owning stocks or mutual funds, and why it is especially appropriate for your IRA.

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Success Stories

I have been trading the equity markets with many different strategies for over 40 years. Terry Allen's strategies have been the most consistent money makers for me. I used them during the 2008 melt-down, to earn over 50% annualized return, while all my neighbors were crying about their losses.

~ John Collins