from the desk of Dr. Terry F Allen

Skip navigation

Member Login  |  Contact Us  |  Sign Up

1-800-803-4595

Terry's Tips Stock Options Trading Blog

Ongoing Spread SVXY Strategy – Week 2

August 22nd, 2014

Last week we started a $1500 demonstration portfolio using SVXY, and ETP that is destined to move higher over the long run because of the way it is constructed (selling VIX higher-priced futures each day and buying at the spot price of VIX, a condition called contango which exists in about 90% of days).

Today we bought back an in-the-money expiring put that we had sold last week and rolled it over to next week.

I hope you find this ongoing demonstration to be a simple way to learn a whole lot about trading options.

Terry

Ongoing Spread SVXY Strategy – Week 2

Last week, we used the following trade to . . .

Ongoing Spread SVXY Strategy For You to Follow if You Wish

August 18th, 2014

A couple of weeks ago, I put $1500 into a separate brokerage account to trade put options on an Exchange Traded Product (ETP) called SVXY. I placed positions that were betting that SVXY would not fall by more than $6 in a week (it had not fallen by that amount in all of 2014 until that date). My timing was perfectly awful. In the next 10 days, the stock fell from $87 to $72, an unprecedented drop of $15.

Bottom line, my account balance fell from $1500 to $1233, I lost $267 in two short weeks when just about the worst possible thing happened to my stock. Now I want to put $267 back in and start over again with $1500, and make it possible for you to follow if you wish.

This will be an actual portfolio designed to demonstrate one way how you can trade options and hopefully outperform anything you could expect to do in the stock market. Our goal in this portfolio is to make an average gain of 3% every week between now and when the Jan-15 options expire on January 15, 2015 (22 weeks from now).

That works out to 150% a year annualized. I think we can do it. We will start with one trade which we will make today.

I hope you find this ongoing demonstration to be a simple way to learn a whole lot about trading options.

Terry

Ongoing Spread SVXY Strategy For You to Follow if You Wish

Our underlying “stock” is an ETP called SVXY. It is a complex volatility-related instrument that . . .

How to Pick the Best Mutual Fund for Your IRA or 401(K)

August 11th, 2014

How to Pick the Best Mutual Fund for Your IRA or 401(K)

If you are a participant in a typical 401(k) plan, you face a list of 18 mutual funds to choose from. If you set up your own IRA plan, the list grows to over 4000 funds in the universe. Most people don’t have the foggiest notion of which fund choice is the best for them. The answer is actually quite simple, if you understand a few essential truths.

3% a Week Possible With This Strategy?

July 29th, 2014

Today I would like to share a strategy with you that seems to make sense to me. I have not back-tested it, and I am not exactly positive that it will work. But I think it will. And I will only need to commit $1500 to test it out (actually, a little less than that as you will see). I invite you to follow along if you wish. For the next few weeks, I will send out any trades I make so you can mirror them if you wish.

My gut feeling tells me that this strategy could make 3% each week. I have set up a separate brokerage account with $1500 to test it out.

Terry

3% a Week Possible With This Strategy? This strategy is based on my favorite . . .

Finding Lessons in a Trade

July 21st, 2014

Last week I told you about a bullish short-term bet we made on SVXY because the stock had dropped over $3 in the previous week (and historically, 4 out of 5 times when that happened earlier this year, the stock rose at least $3 in the subsequent week). We placed an order to sell half the calls if they had doubled in price, and that occurred on Tuesday. On Thursday, volatility soared due to the plane being shot down over Ukraine and Israel invading Gaza. It looked like we would just break even on the trade since we had recovered the initial investment, but then, on Friday, the stock rallied $6 and we were able to sell the remaining half for enough to give us a 32% gain on the trade. Not as much as we had originally hoped, but a gain of any sort is always welcome.

Terry

Finding Lessons in a Trade

The big lesson from our experience last week, one that we have had many times, is that there is . . .

A Possible Great Option Trading Idea

July 14th, 2014

Just before the close on Friday, we made a strongly bullish trade on our favorite underlying stock in a portfolio at Terry’s Tips. In my personal account, I bought weekly calls on this same underlying. As I write this in the pre-market on Monday, it looks like that bet could triple in value this week.

I would like to share with you the thinking behind these trades so next time this opportunity comes up (and it surely will in the near future), you might decide to take advantage of it yourself.

Terry

A Possible Great Option Trading Idea: As we have discussed recently, option prices are . . .

Vertical Put Credit Spreads Part 2

July 7th, 2014

Last week I reviewed the performance of the Terry’s Tips options portfolio for the first half of the year. I should have waited a week because this week was a great one – our composite average gained another 6%, making the year-to-date record 22%, or about 3 times as great as the market (SPY) gain of about 7%.

Last week I also discussed a GOOG vertical put credit spread which is designed to gain 100% in the year if GOOG finished up 2014 at any price higher than where it started, something that it has done in 9 of its . . .

Six-Month Review of Our Options Strategies – Part 1

June 30th, 2014

We have just finished the first half of 2014. It has been a good year for the market. It’s up about 6.7%. Everyone should be fairly happy. The composite portfolios conducted at Terry’s Tips have gained 16% over these months, almost 2 ½ times as much as the market rose. Our subscribers are even happier than most investors.

Our results would have been even better except for our one big losing portfolio which has lost nearly 80% because we tried something which was exactly the opposite to the basic strategy used in all the other portfolios (we essentially bought options rather than selling short-term options as our basic strategy does). In one month, we bought a 5-week straddle on Oracle because in was so cheap, and the stock did not fluctuate more than a dollar for the entire period. We lost about 80% of our investment. If we had bought a calendar spread instead (like we usually do), it would have been a big winner.

Today I would like to discuss the six-month results of a special strategy that we set up in January which was designed to make 100% in one year with very little (actually none) trades after the first ones were placed.

Terry

Six-Month Review of Our Options Strategies:

We have a portfolio we call Better Odds Than Vegas. In January, we picked . . .

Maybe it’s Time to Buy Options Rather Than Sell Them

June 23rd, 2014

Last week I recommended buying a calendar spread on SVXY to take advantage of the extremely high option prices for the weekly options (at-the-money option prices had more than doubled over the past two weeks). The stock managed to skyrocket over 7% for the week and caused the calendar spread to incur a loss. When you sell a calendar spread, you want the stock to be trading very close to the strike price when the short options expire. When the underlying stock makes a big move in either direction, you generally lose money on these spreads, just as we did last week.

Ironically, this spread . . .

An Interesting Trade to Make on Monday

June 16th, 2014

The recent developments in Iraq have nudged options volatility higher, but for one underlying, SVXY, it has apparently pushed IV through the roof. This development has brought about some potentially profitable option spread possibilities.

Terry

An Interesting Trade to Make on Monday

In case you don’t know what . . .

Making 36%

Making 36% — A Duffer's Guide to Breaking Par in the Market Every Year in Good Years and Bad

This book may not improve your golf game, but it might change your financial situation so that you will have more time for the greens and fairways (and sometimes the woods).

Learn why Dr. Allen believes that the 10K Strategy is less risky than owning stocks or mutual funds, and why it is especially appropriate for your IRA.

Order Now

Success Stories

I have been trading the equity markets with many different strategies for over 40 years. Terry Allen's strategies have been the most consistent money makers for me. I used them during the 2008 melt-down, to earn over 50% annualized return, while all my neighbors were crying about their losses.

~ John Collins